Beth said:
Oh, I quite accept that things have multiple causes. I've no problem with that. That's not the problem I have with using anecdotal evidence to estalish harm. In fact, I'll agree that harm can occur. Harm can occur with almost anything. The question is, does the harm outweigh the benefit? If you're going to allow anecdotal evidence for harm, then it's unreasonable and hypocritical not to accept similar anecdotal evidence for benefit. If a man with a cancerous tumor goes to see John of God and the tumor goes away, that's anecdotal evidence that seeing him had some effect. You can consider that placebo effect, spontaneous healing, anything you want.
Right. That's the "action -> result" link, which is notoriously hard to prove (and part of the reason drugs are so expensive).
On the other hand, I have no qualms whatsoever postulating that the reason that the person with the cancerous tumor went to John of God is because he believed in John of God, or in other words that his
belief caused his action.
That's the "belief -> action" link.
As you yourself pointed out, there are a number of other potential "actions" that could have caused the same result -- placebo effect, spontaneous remission, other drugs that the person was taking at the same time. On the other hand, I can't think of very many other beliefs that could have caused the man to go to John of God.
But discounting the evidence you don't like (for whatever reason) and accepting the evidence you do like without similar scrutiny is, well, IMO it's the action of believers, not skeptics.
But discarding evidence
because it won't withstand scrutiny is quite legitimate.
So there are two claims here.
1) "John of God made him get better." This claim will not withstand even a cursory investigation.
2) "The man went to John of God because he believed John of God would make him better." This claim stands up much better, in part because there are no plausible alternative explanations.
So belief in a psychics ability by the people who were searching for the stranded survivors of a crash was a cause of those survivors turning to canabalism before they were found? You don't find that a bit of stretch?
What does this have to do with anything?
The people searched in the wrong area [/i]because[/i] they believed the psychic (and believed in psychic abilities). I don't think this is at all controvertable -- the "belief -> action" link.
As usual, the "action -> effect" link is more cloudy. Did the action (the misdirected search) cause the behavior (cannibalism)? At least one standard philosophical approach would say no -- if the misdirected search had not occurred, the people would still not have been found and would not have resorted to cannibalism.
Alternatively, one could argue that if the search had not been misdirected, the people would have searched the correct area and found the survivors before they resorted to cannibalism.