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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part V

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Strange how other relevant news has been ignored:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...eals-construction-flaws-officials-2023-01-23/

Jan 23 (Reuters) - A new investigation into the sinking of ferry Estonia that claimed 852 lives in 1994 revealed flaws in its bow visor construction missed during its certification, officials said on Monday.

If necessary examination was carried out, the Estonia-registered ship would not be approved as seaworthy to serve the Tallin-Stockholm route it operated, investigators from Estonia, Finland and Sweden told a news conference in Tallinn.
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And then there's this seemingly important piece of information:

The holes discovered in the hull were likely caused by the impact on the vessel on the sea bottom, said Rene Arikas, Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau director, rather than have caused the sinking.

"We do know that when she sank, she didn't have bow visor, she didn't have the ramp. But so far we have not found any damages (to the hull before sinking) other than that in the bow area", said Risto Haimila, chief marine safety investigator at the Finnish Safety Investigation Authority.
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The Guardian is a little more blunt:

The 1994 Estonia ferry disaster that claimed the lives of 852 people was caused by a faulty bow door rather than by a collision or explosion, according to the preliminary findings of an intergovernmental investigation.

Estonian, Finnish and Swedish investigators concluded (pdf) on Monday that Europe’s worst peacetime maritime disaster since the second world war happened after the roll-on, roll-off ferry’s bow shield was wrenched off in heavy seas.
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I could have saved them some money on this one.
 
I'm reading the entire caboodle. Towards the end of part one, in post #4019, Vixen opined

Vixen said:
If these two guys who claimed to have climbed down the car deck ramp (in a roaring storm) when they could have simply jumped into the water, did indeed climb down the car ramp, then the car ramp must have been firmly shut in order for them to do so.
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Just have a look at the structure of a bow ramp. Pretty easy to clamber up or down or sideways. Its orientation is a bit irrelevant. https://www.macgregor.com/globalassets/picturepark/imported-assets/50181.pdf Second page.

... and onwards...
 
The Common Potato said:
I'm reading the entire caboodle. Towards the end of part one, in post #4019, Vixen opined



Just have a look at the structure of a bow ramp. Pretty easy to clamber up or down or sideways. Its orientation is a bit irrelevant. https://www.macgregor.com/globalassets/picturepark/imported-assets/50181.pdf Second page.

... and onwards...
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In the dead of night, with the vessel listed at 45º at that stage?

Well, those Estonians were top athletes. As I recall a couple of them did not survive, so bravo to the ones who did.
 
After all the new surveys of the wreck, we're right back where we started. The bow visor was knocked loose, fell off yanking the ramp open, and flooding the cargo deck.

The only new information seems to be the poor design and construction of the bow visor/ clamps/ et al, which the report hinted at, and we (normal people) suspected.

But, if you haven't had enough, the producers of "Chernobyl" (the cool HBO miniseries, not the disaster) have made a series about the Estonia's wreck , and investigation:

https://variety.com/2022/global/global/estonia-series-production-chernobyl-bordertown-1235402098/

“It’s a series but we have to understand that it’s not entertainment, it’s not just another thriller action movie,” says Tislar. “It’s a real-life thing, and we have the responsibility of honoring the ones who didn’t survive, even if the focus is on the ones who did survive.”

It’s telling that “Estonia” re-teams Månsson and Passi, who previously worked together on “Chernobyl” which dramatized another European disaster, the 1986 explosion at the Nuclear Power Plant.Månsson, who was a second-unit director on “Chernobyl,” says “Estonia” represents the biggest challenge he’s even taken on.

“I thought ‘Chernobyl’ was technically difficult, but this is way more complicated,” says Månsson. “It’s an ethical and moral minefield.”

While the sinking of the ship is an important part of the show, “Estonia” also spotlights the tentacular probe launched in the aftermath of the tragedy by the Joint Accident Investigation Committee established by Sweden, Estonia and Finland.Showrunner Miikko Oikkonen (“Bordertown,” “Helsinki Syndrome”), who co-wrote the series with Olli Suitiala and Tuomas Hakola, says the starting point of the project was the fact that hundreds of testimonies of survivors and rescuers where finally unclassified.

“When I started to read the final report and went through the material, I realized the investigation itself was even more interesting than the accident,’ says Oikkonen. “It was a power play, a political game between these countries and it involved many conflicts of interests.”

The probe went on for nearly four years, and was deserted by all but one member, the young Henri Peltonen, who is one of the series’ protagonists. Inspired by a real character, Peltonen was determined to uncover the truth and penned the final report.

“The investigation was an equally horrible experience, and it was metaphorically also sinking. These two storylines are mirroring each other,” says showrunner Miikko Oikkonen (“Bordertown,” “Helsinki Syndrome”) who co-wrote the series with Olli Suitiala and Tuomas Hakola.

“When they started the investigation, they said that it is going to take two weeks, then maximum two months,” says Oikkonen. By the time the final report was published three and a half years later, five of the six-people on the board were gone – they either died or resigned.
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You can find it on Amazon Prime, HBO Max, and Discovery Plus...If that's your thing...
 
If those two survivors did climb down the car ramp, as exposed when the bow visor detached - and they have no reason to misstate their own experience - then it proves the ca ramp door was shut. If it was shut, how did water flood in to sink it so rapidly?


52923389284_7217e994c1_c.jpg



Follows is what the ridges on the car ramp door look like. Sure, they could form a foothold, although a grip with the hands might be difficult.

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close up of car ramp door underwater

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close up 2 car ramp door underwater
 
Vixen said:
If those two survivors did climb down the car ramp, as exposed when the bow visor detached - and they have no reason to misstate their own experience - then it proves the ca ramp door was shut. If it was shut, how did water flood in to sink it so rapidly?

[...snip...]
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How the heck does how they survived prove the car ramp was shut? Even your own citation above says that if they did climb down the outer part of the ramp it may also contradict their statements that the ramp could have been in the closed position. There is certainly a good reason for people to be mistaken in stressful, traumatic and life threatening situations. Simply that they are people. It’s kind of self defeating when your own citation directly counters your mere assertion of “proves”.

Just off the top of my head, the ramp may have detached somewhat and been pushed in by the pounding waves that infiltrated the ship forming the grid structure in a more accessible area, a bit inside the ship as opposed to outside extremity as it would have been if closed, that they then climbed down.
 
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The ramp is on a hinge. The ramp was damaged when the bow visor ripped it open. The ocean, combined with the 45 degree list, and that pesky gravity means that ramp swung open and shut a few times. It was shut during the first survey after the sinking, but in this new survey the ramp has fallen open - again - due damage, currents, and that pesky gravity.

I love that you post pictures showing severe damage to the ramp from pounding into the bow during the storm (you can tell from the rust it's from the night of the sinking).
 
Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from? The quote describes the ship lying on its side at a list of "90° and more". Not 45°.

I have no problem with the idea that the sea waves and indeed gravity could have swung the untethered ramp shut again when the ship was lying on its side.

A 45° list would make that unlikely but that's not the scenario the survivors described.
 
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The Man said:
How the heck does how they survived prove the car ramp was shut? Even your own citation above says that if they did climb down the outer part of the ramp it may also contradict their statements that the ramp could have been in the closed position. There is certainly a good reason for people to be mistaken in stressful, traumatic and life threatening situations. Simply that they are people. It’s kind of self defeating when your own citation directly counters your mere assertion of “proves”.

Just off the top of my head, the ramp may have detached somewhat and been pushed in by the pounding waves that infiltrated the ship forming the grid structure in a more accessible area, a bit inside the ship as opposed to outside extremity as it would have been if closed, that they then climbed down.
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It is the JAIC's case that the car ramp door detached the same time as the bow visor as they shared the same master hinge structure. The JAIC modifies this to say that the top of the car ramp door was open about 30 degrees at the top and that is how the water came in to overwhelm the ship and capsize it. (However, Margus Kurm's expedition last summer claims the inner doors of the car deck appeared to be firmly shut from a photographic image of two of them, when according to JAIC, they should have been breached for water to overwhelm the electrics.)
 
Axxman300 said:
The ramp is on a hinge. The ramp was damaged when the bow visor ripped it open. The ocean, combined with the 45 degree list, and that pesky gravity means that ramp swung open and shut a few times. It was shut during the first survey after the sinking, but in this new survey the ramp has fallen open - again - due damage, currents, and that pesky gravity.

I love that you post pictures showing severe damage to the ramp from pounding into the bow during the storm (you can tell from the rust it's from the night of the sinking).
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No. When a ship or any item is submerged beneath water the laws of gravity do not remain the same (buoyancy) and nor do doors swing open and shut, due to water pressure. So imagine a surge of seawater enters the car deck. How then would the open car ramp now swing shut 'a few times'?
 
Jack by the hedge said:
Where the hell did a 45 degree list appear from? The quote describes the ship lying on its side at a list of "90° and more". Not 45°.

I have no problem with the idea that the sea waves and indeed gravity could have swung the untethered ramp shut again when the ship was lying on its side.

A 45° list would make that unlikely but that's not the scenario the survivors described.
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It is generally accepted that a list of more than 60º degrees will cause a cruise ship to capsize completely, so it is unlikely to have happened at 90 degrees when capsize was certain (turning upside down).

Here's what it might look like at 70º

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The two Estonians survivors who say the climbed down the car ramp door (although they do not describe it in those terms, they do however, specify the front of the vessel [the bow] are Antti Arak and Ain-Alar Juhanson. The two figures on the right climbing down are as illustrated here:

52923754082_1393d220cd_z.jpg


The two Estonians at the car ramp

As you can see, the car ramp door would need to be reasonably shut for it to be accessible to someone climbing down it.
 
Vixen said:
No. When a ship or any item is submerged beneath water the laws of gravity do not remain the same (buoyancy) and nor do doors swing open and shut, due to water pressure. So imagine a surge of seawater enters the car deck. How then would the open car ramp now swing shut 'a few times'?
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You realize that we have ample evidence of how incompetent you are at physics, especially buoyancy.
 
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