The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Andy_Ross]

The international investigators at the time said in their report that a major cause of failure was that the shipbuilders, Joseph L. Meyer Company of Germany, had miscalculated the strength needed for the bow-locking device to hold up against severe storms (this one was not particularly). The shipbuilders used plates that were too thin to last and locks that were too weak.

Fatigue over time weakens the metal.

Read up on the MV Derbyshire sinking.

In September 1980, Derbyshire was hove-to in Typhoon Orchid 230 miles from Okinawa, and was overwhelmed by the tropical storm killing all aboard. Derbyshire never issued a Mayday distress message.

Water ingress through a small ventilator on the bow over a couple of days in the storm resulted in the bows riding lower. Eventually, the bow was completely exposed to the full force of the waves which caused the hatch on number one hold to buckle inward, allowing hundreds of tons of water to enter in just s few seconds. As the ship started to sink, the second and third hatches also failed, dragging the ship underwater within just a few minutes. All the crew were lost.

the water pressure caused the ship to be twisted and torn apart by implosion/explosion, a feature of double-hulled ships where the compression of air between the hulls causes a secondary explosive decompression

The search for Derbyshire began on 15 September 1980 and was called off six days later when no trace of the vessel was found, and it was declared lost.

In June 1994, the wreck of Derbyshire was found at a depth of 13,000 feet spread over an area of a square mile.
As the ship sank, the water pressure caused the ship to be twisted and torn apart by implosions and explosions resulting from the air in the double hull and bottom and other closed spaces being compressed.
This causes a hull to rupture and tear itself apart as it sinks.

 

[Vixen]

Fatigue over time weakens the metal.

Read up on the MV Derbyshire sinking

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Derbyshire

Hmm. Interesting...

As the ship started to sink, the second, then third hatches also failed, dragging the ship underwater. As the ship sank, the water pressure caused the ship to be twisted and torn apart by implosion/explosion, a feature of double-hulled ships where the compression of air between the hulls causes a secondary explosive decompression.[citation needed]

 

[Andy_Ross]

By coincidence, in 1986 the Derbyshire's sister ship Kowloon Bridge sank off Bantry Bay. She anchored anchored after developing deck cracking in one of her frames during her Atlantic crossing.
She lost her anchor and damaged her steering gear to avoid colliding with an oil tanker also anchored in the Bay. Helicopters rescued the crew and she was effectively abandoned with her engine running astern and heading away from the coast and ran aground on rocks .

 

[llwyd]

Well, the official report is exhaustive - unfortunaly it seems not available in English. It explains the massive majority of facts and witness observations and presents a logical chain of events that led to the sinking.

What those alleging a conspiracy are doing is to cherry pick odd sounding individual events here and there, some true, some innocently mistaken, many embellished or even simply invented. What they very carefully do not present is an alternative scenario that would make sense of the vast majority of the facts and observations that we have of the disaster. And that's because it would be impossible. This is our Nordic version of 9/11, tales are told, books and "documentaries" sold.

This case was closed 25 years ago and closed very credibly and efficiently.

 

[Vixen]

Well, the official report is exhaustive - unfortunaly it seems not available in English. It explains the massive majority of facts and witness observations and presents a logical chain of events that led to the sinking.

What those alleging a conspiracy are doing is to cherry pick odd sounding individual events here and there, some true, some innocently mistaken, many embellished or even simply invented. What they very carefully do not present is an alternative scenario that would make sense of the vast majority of the facts and observations that we have of the disaster. And that's because it would be impossible. This is our Nordic version of 9/11, tales are told, books and "documentaries" sold.

This case was closed 25 years ago and closed very credibly and efficiently.

There is an English version of the report here:

http://www.multi.fi/estonia/estorap.html


I don't know why they have re-opened the case but I think they did mention the German-origin documentary on Discovery. So they have already sent down some robotic arm to take 15,000-25,000 photos and in 3-D. I don't know what drives the new investigation. The German guys AIUI were hired by the husband of one of the victims. It doesn't seem likely to me they would just open up an investigation on his say so, as the victims' families and survivors have been making all kinds of requests over the nearly thirty years since it happened, and the German crew were there illegally. In addition, it would have had to have had the permission of all the five Baltic countries that were party to the International Act that made the underwater grave a protected area: Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Lithuania iirc. So not only have they agreed but they have amended the Act to allow for this new investigation. Maybe the actual reason has not yet been made public. It could just be that they now have the technology to take a 3-D modelling, which they didn't have in 1994.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There is an English version of the report here:

http://www.multi.fi/estonia/estorap.html

...

That's an incredibly detailed investigation.

This confirms what I thought when I read the accounts:

Action by the crew

The initial action by the officers on the bridge indicates that they did not realise that the bow was fully open when the list started to develop.

The bridge officers did not reduce speed after receiving two reports of metallic sounds and ordering an investigation of the bow area. A rapid decrease in speed at this time would have significantly increased the chances of survival.

The visor could not be seen from the conning position, which the Comission considers a significant contributing factor to the capsize. In all incidents known to the Commission where the visor has opened at sea due to locking device failure, the opening was observed visually from the bridge and the officers of the watch were able quickly to take appropriate action.

There are indications that the crew did not use all means to seek or exchange information regarding the occurrence at a stage when it would still have been possible to influence the development of the accident. The bridge crew apparently did not look at the TV monitor which would have shown them that water was entering the car deck; nor did they ask those in the control room from where the ingress was observed, or get information from them.

The position sensors for signallamps showing locked visor were connected to the side locking bolts in such a way that the lamp on the bridge showed locked visor even after the visor had tumbled into the sea. The indirect information on the status of the visor was thus misleading. The signallamp for locked ramp was most likely not on because one of the locking bolts was not fully extended.

There was thus no lamp warning when the visor had forced the ramp partly open and it was resting inside the visor.

It is most likely that the crew were unaware of visor incidents involving other vessels, in particular the DIANA II.

This in particular:

Evacuation

The rapid increase in the list contributed to the large loss of life.
The lifeboat alarm was not given until about five minutes after the list developed, nor was any information given to the passengers over the public address system. By the time the alarm was given, the list made escaping from inside the vessel very difficult. This together with problems in using lifesaving equipment contributed to the tragic outcome.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

I don't know anyone's motives but if a producer made overtures to the grief-stricken families in hopes of "finding the real answers" and made a pretty penny by doing so...

I wouldn't be shocked.

 

[llwyd]

There is an English version of the report here:

http://www.multi.fi/estonia/estorap.html


I don't know why they have re-opened the case but I think they did mention the German-origin documentary on Discovery.

They haven't reopened the case but they will investigate the holes on the wreck that were not seen earlier. They do not appear to be very mysterious at all, but it is good that the investigation is done professionally.

Good catch with the link!

 

[llwyd]

I think one of the causes of the conspiracy mongering was that the majority of the Swedish family members and relatives of the drowned wanted absolutely that the bodies should be recovered from the ship. The governments refused stating that the sea has been seen always as a natural grave. The real cause probably dealt with more about the cost and grisliness of the operation. (I don't even know if it was tehnically possible but I guess.)

So that was a natural weak point for the predators to strike - "what are the officials hiding, why are they doing this?" And many of the relatives, though not the majority by all means went along. I guess it's more comforting that there was a more sinister cause than just sheer incompetence and bad luck that killed their loved ones. And Jutta Rabe came along, the vulture, oh how I detest her...

And then of course, there really was smuggling going on, even of some military material. It was in the middle of the post-soviet chaos and Russia was in the process of withdrawing from their bases in the Baltic countries. And initially the officials downplayed the smuggling. It's just that the visor broke in the storm and damaged the ramp and the ship sunk, regardless of any criminal activity.

 

[llwyd]

This is a harrowing account of what happened inside the ship (I think mainly accurate):

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-story/302940/

It seems that the best thing is to be fit, determined, sober and not hesitant, not waiting for instructions if such are not coming - and knowing what to do and where to go. I would think though that there were dozens more of such people on the boat that just took the wrong turn or simply could not overcome their circumstances.

 

[Vixen]

That's an incredibly detailed investigation.

This confirms what I thought when I read the accounts:

This in particular:

Yes, the failure of the life-saving equipment is to be abhorred. However, when you compare the sinking of the Titanic to the Estonia, the former took hour hours, the latter less than ninety minutes from the estimated onset of problems and within 24 minutes of the distress signal.

The crew were heavily criticised but they were not blamed for the tragedy. Bear in mind, they were for the most part Russian naval school trained, with a very different cultural ethos from the western ones. For example, the Captain had sole authority. Whilst designated naval officers on a Swedish (say) ship had the authority to immediately put right any issues within their remit and report it later, an Estonian crew man was expected to ask permission from the Captain first, before doing anything. In that type of authoritarian regime, the personnel below will develop a 'not my responsibility' attitude, perhaps for fear of being seen as an upstart or speaking out of turn should they bring issues up.

The captain, Avo Piht wasn't on duty that night AFAIK and it was the second in command, Anders Tammas - the one who sent the weak May Day - both of them presumed to have gone down with the ship, although Piht was originally named as a survivor and several people claimed to have seen him, one at Turku hospital, in a mix-up.

 

[Vixen]

I don't know anyone's motives but if a producer made overtures to the grief-stricken families in hopes of "finding the real answers" and made a pretty penny by doing so...

I wouldn't be shocked.

What actually happened was, the report laid the cause of the accident on the shipbuilders, Meyer Werft, who are German, saying that the bolts to the bow visor were too weak.

The German shipbuilders strongly disputed this, even though they were not liable, because as of the time the ship was build there were no regulations regarding strength of the locks, so no regulation had been breached.

The shipbuilder, fearing insurance claims from the victims and survivors, commissioned their own report after consulting with said families, and sent along the boat to investigate for themselves. Several Swedish military ships intercepted them and warned them they were breaching the laws drawn up between Sweden, Estonia, Finland, Russia, Latvia, Lithuania and Denmark over these international waters but they carried on anyway, receiving a writ later (the Swedish components of the team were recently cleared in a Swedish court of the crime).

It took a lot of footage and discovered not only the four metre gap and 1.2 metre hole, but also a lot of bodies strewn on the sea bead around the vessel., contrary to the earlier official accident investigators, who reported they had seen no bodies (and hence, leading to the decision to not bring the bodies up).

It was not only Germany who decline to sign the treaty but here were bitter disputes between the JAIC (Joint Accident Investigation Committee) with people resigning here and there, including the psychologist, government ministers, et al, who strongly disagreed with the findings. Witnesses whose accounts differed from the official narrative were left out as being 'contradictory' or 'confusing'.

So, no, it is not just a handful of disgruntled relatives of the victims who weren't satisfied.

 

[llwyd]

So, no, it is not just a handful of disgruntled relatives of the victims who weren't satisfied.

Well, I'm not talking about the insurance claims and ultimate blame - I'm talking about the seriously unpleasant conspiracy mongering that has endlessly gone on around these more mundane disputes about money.

The cause is not in doubt, it has been established, we know how the boat capsized. No submarines, no bombs, no terrorism, no sabotage. The visor broke in the storm and damaged the ramp and the boat sunk. Period.

 

[Vixen]

I think one of the causes of the conspiracy mongering was that the majority of the Swedish family members and relatives of the drowned wanted absolutely that the bodies should be recovered from the ship. The governments refused stating that the sea has been seen always as a natural grave. The real cause probably dealt with more about the cost and grisliness of the operation. (I don't even know if it was tehnically possible but I guess.)

So that was a natural weak point for the predators to strike - "what are the officials hiding, why are they doing this?" And many of the relatives, though not the majority by all means went along. I guess it's more comforting that there was a more sinister cause than just sheer incompetence and bad luck that killed their loved ones. And Jutta Rabe came along, the vulture, oh how I detest her...

And then of course, there really was smuggling going on, even of some military material. It was in the middle of the post-soviet chaos and Russia was in the process of withdrawing from their bases in the Baltic countries. And initially the officials downplayed the smuggling. It's just that the visor broke in the storm and damaged the ramp and the ship sunk, regardless of any criminal activity.

Jutta Rabe was a film maker who brought out a dramatic 'disaster' movie, so enter the sinister Russian spies, mafia and what have you, to pander to the public taste for such things.

There was a group of thirty-three young women who are presumed drowned in the tragedy, who came from a small town on the landlocked west side of Sweden. Under Swedish law, they were not allowed to have an empty grave. Now many of those women were young mothers, with children and families with nowhere to go to pay respects, along with others in traditional Swedish custom at various times of the year, for example, at All Souls or Christmas Eve. In the end, they were allowed to have a small area of the graveyard and to erect a headstone/memorial. So you ,see it is important for people from that type of culture to have a proper grave, especially as - if it is anything like Finland (which seems to have the same laws as Sweden) - you are not allowed to bury or take ashes or removed the bodies to anywhere but a designated place of burial. In Finland this law was relaxed for the fallen dead from the war, as many bodies were never returned, or were missing in action, but a headstone in the war memorial part of the churchyard was mandated.

The other problem with recovering the bodies, aside from the trauma to the rescuers, is that in that region - the Bermuda Triangle of the Baltic - there are literally at least forty other wrecks lying amongst the treacherous rocks of Utö* dating back over the last few centuries. The Baltic has always been dangerous for ships not so much because of the rocks, but because it moves from shallow to deep unevenly, meaning tidal waves from one side can quickly undermine them. So there are likely to be much more than 630 known bodies. There are also likely to be a number of passengers who didn't have tickets (it was conventional for crew and staff to bring friends and family on board) including young children who didn't need a ticket.

ETA

*I meant to say that anyone visiting as a tourist can go island hopping around the coast including Utö all by using a ferry service with a local bus line which costs about €3 for a two-hour journey. The return ferry leaves very early in the day, so you would have to stay overnight.

I couldn't find the bus timetable for now but there is this webpage that arranges trips to the area:

https://vitharun.fi/fi/ulkosaaristonretki/

 

[Vixen]

This is a harrowing account of what happened inside the ship (I think mainly accurate):

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-story/302940/

It seems that the best thing is to be fit, determined, sober and not hesitant, not waiting for instructions if such are not coming - and knowing what to do and where to go. I would think though that there were dozens more of such people on the boat that just took the wrong turn or simply could not overcome their circumstances.

The article mentions 'sheets of salt water' but the Baltic is well known for having very low to near zero salt. It is famously is not known for salt worms, like other seas. For example, the ancient Swedish ship, the Wasa was launched in the reign of Charles XII (Adolphus Vasa) and almost immediately sank. When dredged up 333 years later, the bones of the 30 seamen found were intact, as was a chest containing a stylish hat, and enough artefacts to turn the Wasa into Sweden's number one tourist attraction as a ship museum. However, the article is correct the ship was travelling at a tremendous pace for the weather conditions, as it left Tallinn one hour late and didn't want to incur the wrath of the Swedish port side authorities.


ETA: It is all very well saying - insensitively IMV - "the best thing is to be fit, determined, sober and not hesitant, not waiting for instructions if such are not coming - and knowing what to do and where to go" because it ignores the fact that only 20% of the survivors were women. Many of these will have had to navigate young children, didn't have the same upper body muscle strength to heave themselves up a steep railing and sides of the ship. Many of those who survived were those who opted for the cabin-free upper deck, a popular choice for cash strapped young people. When I travelled on Viking Sally we took a cabin because my mother wanted to shower twice a day. The cheap cabins were near the engine room and car deck so you get clanking all night long. It would have taken ascending six or seven flights at an angle of 30°. The people who survived were predominantly young men who had done their mandatory military training or they were the crew and richer people who had cabins on the sixth and seventh decks. For example, with the Titanic, the survivors were almost all first class passengers. On a day trip to Stockholm nobody is going to fork out for one of the luxury cabins.

 

[theprestige]

I seriously doubt that Swedish law and custom have no sensible provision for bodies lost at sea. Even the landlocked villages shouldn't be struggling this hard.

"In Finland this law was relaxed for the fallen dead from the war, as many bodies were never returned, or were missing in action"

Oh wow, you think?! I'm glad to hear the Finns have figured out basic, obvious stuff that everybody else also knows and understands. What are the Swedes? Five years old?

 

[Vixen]

Well, I'm not talking about the insurance claims and ultimate blame - I'm talking about the seriously unpleasant conspiracy mongering that has endlessly gone on around these more mundane disputes about money.

The cause is not in doubt, it has been established, we know how the boat capsized. No submarines, no bombs, no terrorism, no sabotage. The visor broke in the storm and damaged the ramp and the boat sunk. Period.

Well the German accident investigators not only took all those photos, it also took away a few square feet of panels from around the damaged side. It sent them to three independent laboratories, one in San Antonio, Texas, and two in Germany. All three independently found traces of explosives on the panels. As the shipbuilders, it is understandable Meyer might be indignant and eager to shore up damage limitation to its reputation. The bow visor was recovered about a mile west of the sunken vessel and the impact of coming loose mean that the top of the 'sealed' ramp was distorted to cause a gap of about one metre allowing sea water to enter.


Here's a riddle for you and and shipping boff Captain Swoop:

The car deck is above sea level, ipso facto, in order to allow transport to RORO. When filled with water, this equates to circa 2,000 cubic metres of water.

The decks below, including cabins, would have consisted of 18,000 cubic metres of air and is completely sealed off from any water leakage.

Question: how does such a vessel sink within 90 minutes?

https://miro.medium.com/max/1071/1*UEDpAanzq_Yol2FIPexmzg.jpeg

 

[llwyd]

The article mentions 'sheets of salt water' but the Baltic is well known for having very low to near zero salt.

Yeah, the salinity increases towards the Danish Sounds but they say that the water will actually rehydrate you in the Northern part of the Gulf of Bothnia. Have never tried that though

 

[erwinl]

Considering the speed of sinking of the Estonia and thus the presumed amount of water entering it. At least through a hole big enough to be a stand in for the conventional theory of the broken off visor bow.
Did any of the surrounding countries find one of their objects weighing 1000 to 5000 tons missing (presumably with their entire crew), or have it return to port heavily damaged?

That would need to be one of the first questions to be answered, I’d guess.

 

[Vixen]

I seriously doubt that Swedish law and custom have no sensible provision for bodies lost at sea. Even the landlocked villages shouldn't be struggling this hard.

"In Finland this law was relaxed for the fallen dead from the war, as many bodies were never returned, or were missing in action"

Oh wow, you think?! I'm glad to hear the Finns have figured out basic, obvious stuff that everybody else also knows and understands. What are the Swedes? Five years old?

Th point being made is that people want to honour their dead. It is all very well saying, let them stay buried at sea, when it may not have been so difficult at the time to recover some of them.