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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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SpitfireIX said:
That's perfectly logical; the problem is that it hands a major propaganda victory to Ukraine's enemies.
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Ukraine's enemies already take every action and event in bad faith.

Will you condemn Ukraine, and withdraw your support for them, if they postpone elections?

Will anyone who currently supports Ukraine, and wishes them victory against the occupier, withdraw that support if Ukraine postpones elections? I say, no. I say the only people who would condemn such a postponement are the people who already condemn Ukraine's decision to fight rather than submit.

And I say the only people worried about the "bad look" of postponing elections are useful idiots who are more concerned with appearances than with results.
 
theprestige said:
You're not supposed to have answers to these questions. They're for the Ukrainian people to consider and answer for themselves, as they see fit. ... Certainly. But postponing elections in the middle of an existential conflict isn't it.
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So there are issues internal to Ukraine that are NOT for the Ukrainian people to consider and answer for?

The point I am trying for you to come to terms to is that, on the spectrum of "bad" decisions, ranging from "slightly unfortunate" to "sub-optimal" to "lamentable" to "absolute no-go", postponing elections, or postponing them indefinitely (i.e. effectively ending democracy) may legitimately be seen in the more worrisome part of that spectrum.

I mean, for example, how do you suppose for "the Ukrainian people to consider and answer"anything at all without there being, eventually, a proper poll of the Ukrainian people?

Do you advocate for closing the "Non-USA Poitics" thread for all members except those that are citizens of the countries covered?
Why do YOU constantly have and voice an opinion on Ukraine politics if it is none of MY darned business to have answers?

theprestige said:
Why do you ask?
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Because this is the "Ukraine war" thread in the "Politics" forum, and the question on whether or not elections will be hed is most eminently political, and it concerns Ukraine at this time

theprestige said:
If Ukraine postpones elections, will it make you end your support?
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No. Not in and of itself.
I would like to see conditions defined though that prescribe when polls will be taken.
If Zelenskyy becomes president and dictator for life, because there will forever be a conflict with Russia and never again any election whatsoever, yeah, I certainly would not support that at all.
Would you?

theprestige said:
You seem more concerned with Ukraine putting on a show, than with Ukraine putting up a fight.
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No. You are plain wrong. As you are ALWAYS when you try, in vain, to guess my motives. Just stop the personalization of your arguments. It's a losing way :rolleyes:
So holding elections amounts to "putting up a show" now... ;)
 
Oystein said:
So there are issues internal to Ukraine that are NOT for the Ukrainian people to consider and answer for?

The point I am trying for you to come to terms to is that, on the spectrum of "bad" decisions, ranging from "slightly unfortunate" to "sub-optimal" to "lamentable" to "absolute no-go", postponing elections, or postponing them indefinitely (i.e. effectively ending democracy) may legitimately be seen in the more worrisome part of that spectrum.
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Do you see it in the worrisome part of that spectrum? I don't. And I don't think the circumstances in Ukraine right now support legitimately seeing it in the worrisome part of that spectrum.

Why would it worry you, if Ukraine postponed elections?

I think it's legitimately worrisome when a dictator exploits or manufactures a conflict, as an excuse to postpone or cancel elections. But that's not the situation in Ukraine right now, so I have no legitimate worry there.

If France or Germany were to have an official government policy, of not supplying military aid to a nation that suspends elections during wartime, I'd think that a foolish policy, but I'd consider it a legitimate worry for Ukraine. But I'm aware of no such policies, in any of the governments currently supporting Ukraine, so again I have no legitimate worry there.

If the western voting public, in the nations that support Ukraine, showed signs of withdrawing their support for Ukraine if elections were postponed, I'd consider them useful idiots for the Moscow regime, and be horrified at how deeply and widely Moscow's propaganda has penetrated into the western psyche. But that doesn't seem to be the case, so yet again I have no legitimate worry.

What's your legitimate worry? Do you even have one, or are you simply worried that other people might think they have a legitimate worry? Who are those other people? Do you think their worries should be a concern for Ukrainian policy-makers?

I mean, for example, how do you suppose for "the Ukrainian people to consider and answer"anything at all without there being, eventually, a proper poll of the Ukrainian people?
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I think "proper polling" is a red herring.

Are you saying you'll withdraw your respect and support for Ukraine in this conflict, if Zelensky doesn't arrange a "proper poll" according to your satisfaction? Are you worried that someone else might withdraw, without that "proper poll"?

Do you advocate for closing the "Non-USA Poitics" thread for all members except those that are citizens of the countries covered?
Why do YOU constantly have and voice an opinion on Ukraine politics if it is none of MY darned business to have answers?
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I'm saying this particular question is one that you can't answer.

Obviously you're allowed to have an opinion about it. So what is your opinion? Should Ukraine hold elections on schedule or not, in your opinion? If you think they should, why do you think that? Is it because it "looks good" to you if they do? Is it because you believe timely elections are necessary to sustain the morale and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people?

Because this is the "Ukraine war" thread in the "Politics" forum, and the question on whether or not elections will be hed is most eminently political, and it concerns Ukraine at this time
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What's your concern, though?

No. Not in and of itself.
I would like to see conditions defined though that prescribe when polls will be taken.
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Why? What is it about these polls that you believe matters? Do you think it's the only way Zelensky can gauge the mood of his citizens and make an informed decision about government policy?

Do you believe it somehow delegitimizes Zelensky's government, if they don't hold these polls to your satisfaction?

If Zelenskyy becomes president and dictator for life, because there will forever be a conflict with Russia and never again any election whatsoever, yeah, I certainly would not support that at all.
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Is that really what you're worried about?

Would you?
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It would depend entirely on the circumstances at the time. I don't see it happening, though. This is a particularly tough and intense period for Ukriane, possibly decisive. I see elections resuming just fine, if the conflict goes back to being what it was between 2014 and 2022.

I don't think Zelensky wants to be in the presidency any longer than he has to be, to get Ukraine through this particular moment in the war.

I don't see any sign that he's interested in prolonging this war as an excuse to become dictator for life. I don't see how that can possibly be a legitimate concern for anyone. I'd very much like to see your reasoning for why I should take the possibility seriously at this time.

No. You are plain wrong. As you are ALWAYS when you try, in vain, to guess my motives. Just stop the personalization of your arguments. It's a losing way : rolleyes :
So holding elections amounts to "putting up a show" now... ; )
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Okay, so what are your motives?

Why do you think it's necessary for Ukraine to not postpone elections in this cycle? Are you worried that your fellow citizens or your government will withhold support for Ukraine if they postpone elections? Are you worried that Zelensky is going to use this conflict as an excuse to become dictator for life? Is your worry something else that I haven't guessed at yet? If so, what is it?
 
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SpitfireIX said:
That's perfectly logical; the problem is that it hands a major propaganda victory to Ukraine's enemies. In addition to votes during the War of 1812 and World War II, the United States held elections while there was a civil war going on, with balloting unable to take place in several states that were controlled by secessionists.
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In none of those instances was significant territory of the USA under control of a foreign power. In the Civil War it can be argued that the rebel states disenfranchised themselves. Their citizens couldn't vote because they had seceded not because an occupying power was making it impossible.
 
And yet, if the Ukrainians hold elections on schedule, difficulties be damned, no amount of noise will matter, not Russian uproar especially.
 
Seeing as Ukraine really wants to join the EU and NATO .And both organisations require democracy as joining conditions. I do not see anyone trying to become dictator of Ukraine before they join.

Unless of course it's a russian sympathetic wannabe dictator

I have no issue with postponing elections until the situation has changed somewhat
 
theprestige said:
The only people "concerned" that it will look bad if Ukraine doesn't hold elections are those who want Ukraine to look bad.
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I firmly disagree. It's an entirely reasonable concern to have, period. Further, it's worth saying that there's real value in upholding democracy even when real challenges are in play. If one's values break under stress, that says something notable about how strong they actually are and makes it all the easier for them to be broken more in the future in less trying circumstances.

theprestige said:
Those who support Ukraine against Russia understand that it can be legitimate to postpone elections during wartime, and will support Ukraine if it takes this route.
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It's understandable if they go that route, but we're under no onus to support them taking that route. On the other hand, the materiel support being supplied should not be impacted because the real reasons for it don't actually rely on Ukraine upholding democracy.

theprestige said:
Holding elections just to mollify useful idiots in the west, who have adopted a pose of withholding their support if Ukraine doesn't hold elections, is a foolish game, and Zelensky should not play it.
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Fair enough, but then there's a real question of which course of action is actually more beneficial to Ukraine. To make it perhaps a bit too simplistic, is it reducing the election-related disruption or is it securing continued supplies to prevent later problems?

theprestige said:
He's right to appeal to the opinions of the Ukrainian people in his remarks. If elections are necessary for Ukrainian morale, to maintain the support of the Ukrainian people for their government and the war, then yes, Ukraine should hold elections. If the Ukrainian people are not calling for elections, though? Then literally everyone else should shut up and sit down. At that point, advocating for elections just makes you a Russian shill. Even advocating hypothetically makes you - hypothetically - a Russian shill.
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Personally, I'm entirely fine with leaving the decision in the hands of the Ukrainian people, with the caveat that there's good cause to believe that the decision's actually being made by the Ukrainian people, rather than imposed by the leadership out of expedience. When it comes to ends and means, the ends are quite important, yes, but are shaped by the means.
 
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Starting to see quite a few reports on a push into Verbove to the east of Robotyne. This is part of the pocket extending towards Tokmak. But to get to Tokmak they need to go south and west.

The upside of Verbove is that there is only one major defensive line if they keep going south and east. Also it is defending by either 1 or 3 "BARS" regiments depending on the map source I look at. The BARS units are reserve formation raised after the war started. They pretty much sucked and don't have a good history in the conflict.

The downside is what happens if they take the town and then the last line there. Push east, and you hit bigger towns and more defensible terrain with or without another line being built. Head south and you are in open terrain but you don't have any roads built for major logistics support.

The purpose, as best I can figure, is just to mess up the defensive lines and force the Russians to move in better troops. The positions to the west of Robotyne are defended by airborne units. They took a mauling at the start of the war but are likely better led than the reservists even if they are depending on new conscripts.

Also have seen opinions that the rainy season might not stop offensive operation in the south and west. The terrain there is supposedly more sand than dirt and that would prevent the armor from bogging down in the mud. But so far I only see one source claiming that.
 
theprestige said:
The only people "concerned" that it will look bad if Ukraine doesn't hold elections are those who want Ukraine to look bad.

Those who support Ukraine against Russia understand that it can be legitimate to postpone elections during wartime, and will support Ukraine if it takes this route.

Holding elections just to mollify useful idiots in the west, who have adopted a pose of withholding their support if Ukraine doesn't hold elections, is a foolish game, and Zelensky should not play it. He's right to appeal to the opinions of the Ukrainian people in his remarks. If elections are necessary for Ukrainian morale, to maintain the support of the Ukrainian people for their government and the war, then yes, Ukraine should hold elections. If the Ukrainian people are not calling for elections, though? Then literally everyone else should shut up and sit down. At that point, advocating for elections just makes you a Russian shill. Even advocating hypothetically makes you - hypothetically - a Russian shill.
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The same Putin supporters who will claim with a straight face that no elections in the wake of their heart-throb invading Ukraine would similarly say with a straight face, if elections went ahead, that the results of such an election would be unreliable under the circumstances and therefore likely rigged.
 
angrysoba said:
The same Putin supporters who will claim with a straight face that no elections in the wake of their heart-throb invading Ukraine would similarly say with a straight face, if elections went ahead, that the results of such an election would be unreliable under the circumstances and therefore likely rigged.
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They won't be happy unless Putin's name is on the ballot. In fact they won't be happy until 85+ percent of Ukrainians 'vote' for him, whether his name is on the ballot or not.
 
Doubt said:
Starting to see quite a few reports on a push into Verbove to the east of Robotyne. This is part of the pocket extending towards Tokmak. But to get to Tokmak they need to go south and west.

The upside of Verbove is that there is only one major defensive line if they keep going south and east. Also it is defending by either 1 or 3 "BARS" regiments depending on the map source I look at. The BARS units are reserve formation raised after the war started. They pretty much sucked and don't have a good history in the conflict.

The downside is what happens if they take the town and then the last line there. Push east, and you hit bigger towns and more defensible terrain with or without another line being built. Head south and you are in open terrain but you don't have any roads built for major logistics support.

The purpose, as best I can figure, is just to mess up the defensive lines and force the Russians to move in better troops. The positions to the west of Robotyne are defended by airborne units. They took a mauling at the start of the war but are likely better led than the reservists even if they are depending on new conscripts.
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I'll add a bit more to that. The major strategic goal in play is to cut off the Russian ground lines of communication and thus cut off a huge portion of occupied territory and Russian forces. If they can do so more easily via Verbove and onwards than doing so through Tokmak, that's a viable route to go. More tactically, if the defense lines are more easily breached in the Verbove direction, that makes it easier to wrap around and clear the paths from behind each defense line, rather than simply from the direction that the defenses were made to guard against. Also on a tactical level, widening and making the salient more robust and less of a salient is a generally useful move.

Doubt said:
Also have seen opinions that the rainy season might not stop offensive operation in the south and west.
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I've seen a number of claims that Ukraine's push will not stop with the muddy season by now, with varying levels of officiality. Either way, Ukraine's offensive has primarily been a matter of infantry and artillery, by the look of it, which are much less susceptible to getting bogged down than, say, tanks would be.

Doubt said:
The terrain there is supposedly more sand than dirt and that would prevent the armor from bogging down in the mud. But so far I only see one source claiming that.
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I've only seen one source that specifically broke down the soil types by area, but I've seen a number of claims throughout the invasion that more generally touch on how the southern occupied areas are notably less affected by the muddy season.
 
angrysoba said:
The same Putin supporters who will claim with a straight face that no elections in the wake of their heart-throb invading Ukraine would similarly say with a straight face, if elections went ahead, that the results of such an election would be unreliable under the circumstances and therefore likely rigged.
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Jack by the hedge said:
They won't be happy unless Putin's name is on the ballot. In fact they won't be happy until 85+ percent of Ukrainians 'vote' for him, whether his name is on the ballot or not.
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Exactly. What worries me is how many in the west seem to think we should take their feelings into account, when judging whether it's reasonable for Ukraine to postpone elections.
 
Russia says Admiral Sokolov is still alive.
To support this they have released a video of him in a meeting somewhere although they haven't said when or where it was recorded
 
Andy_Ross said:
Russia says Admiral Sokolov is still alive.
To support this they have released a video of him in a meeting somewhere although they haven't said when or where it was recorded
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Intelligence analysts are carefully examining the footage for clues. There may be some wiggle room for doubt in some of the details, like the fact that he's wearing legwarmers and a Swatch watch while drinking a Jolt Cola and watching ALF. These might potentially point to the footage being from earlier, not sure yet.
 
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