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The Robots are Coming.

Gord_in_Toronto

Penultimate Amazing
Gord_in_Toronto
Joined
Jul 22, 2006
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In 1968 I attended the AFIPS Fall Joint Computing Conference in San Francisco. At some point I took the included tour to SRI where we were give a demonstration of an early version of what (I believe) became the Stanford Arm, which was "the first successful electrically-powered, computer-controlled robot arm". As I remember it, four or five small cubes (maybe 2 inches a side) were tossed on a table at random and then the robot arm somewhat shakily picked up each block in turn and stacked them one on top of each other. The demonstrator did mention that sometimes the computer did not get it quite right and the stack fell over. I thought, "I have seen the future".

Fast (?) forward to Stretch:

A Robot for the Worst Job in the Warehouse

https://spectrum.ieee.org/warehouse-robot

All Stretch needs is to be shown the back of a trailer packed with boxes, and it’ll autonomously go to work, placing each box on a conveyor belt one by one until the trailer is empty. People are still there to make sure that everything goes smoothly, and they can step in if Stretch runs into something that it can’t handle, but their full-time job becomes robot supervision instead of lifting heavy boxes all day.
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The robots are coming. The second age of automation is slowly transferring all human work to them. We'll soon have nothing left to do but live in our virtual reality worlds. Nirvana will have arrived. :jaw-dropp
 
Gord_in_Toronto said:
The second age of automation is slowly transferring all human work to them. We'll soon have nothing left to do but live in our virtual reality worlds. Nirvana will have arrived. :jaw-dropp
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I doubt that "Nirvana" is defined as the top 0.000001% having all the wealth in the world and everybody else starving to death.
 
It is something we need to think about, especially how as a society we want to deal with this.

With self driving cars jobs like truck driver, bus driver, taxi etc will vanish within 20-30 years as well. The same will probably apply to jobs like warehouse stacker, burger flipping etc.
All jobs that require minimal training and education.
Now there will appear new jobs in taking care of the robots, but those will require a lot more knowledge of engineering and electronics.
Degrees not everyone who will be out of their original job can get, nor will there be as many jobs, which means the part of our society that does less well in education will become unemployable.

In my opinion that does mean we'd need to create a form of welfare system where a (probably growing part) of society will have to be supported without expecting them to work.
 
psionl0 said:
I doubt that "Nirvana" is defined as the top 0.000001% having all the wealth in the world and everybody else starving to death.
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On the contrary, Nirvana is attained by those who have abandoned all attachment to the world. Being poor and dead makes it just that much easier.
 
Manufacturing makes heavy use of robots. They really don’t eliminate jobs but make them more efficient and productive. Personally my experience is better productivity creates more and better jobs than it eliminates. I think they are net a positive.

Manufacturing also has experienced maintenance techs, parts, and trades people on hand to deal with robot failures. That’s something a lot of other industries are going to have to address in a different way that makes me less worried about job losses.
 
dirtywick said:
Manufacturing makes heavy use of robots. They really don’t eliminate jobs but make them more efficient and productive. Personally my experience is better productivity creates more and better jobs than it eliminates. I think they are net a positive.

Manufacturing also has experienced maintenance techs, parts, and trades people on hand to deal with robot failures. That’s something a lot of other industries are going to have to address in a different way that makes me less worried about job losses.
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Stale argument that turns a blind eye to the wage stagnation of the past several decades and fails to acknowledge that technology is creating more jobs for ROBOTS - not people.
 
I don't think this is something we need to contemplate. Ultimately the robots will be making the decisions for us, we'll just have to obey. Nothing to worry about.
 
Lukraak_Sisser said:
It is something we need to think about, especially how as a society we want to deal with this.

With self driving cars jobs like truck driver, bus driver, taxi etc will vanish within 20-30 years as well. The same will probably apply to jobs like warehouse stacker, burger flipping etc.
All jobs that require minimal training and education.
Now there will appear new jobs in taking care of the robots, but those will require a lot more knowledge of engineering and electronics.
Degrees not everyone who will be out of their original job can get, nor will there be as many jobs, which means the part of our society that does less well in education will become unemployable.

In my opinion that does mean we'd need to create a form of welfare system where a (probably growing part) of society will have to be supported without expecting them to work.
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We already have that - at least in many European countries. The bigger question will be what level of existence should be provided.
 
psionl0 said:
Stale argument that turns a blind eye to the wage stagnation of the past several decades and fails to acknowledge that technology is creating more jobs for ROBOTS - not people.
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Most companies that automate and grow and hire more people. Being inefficient isn't good for growth.
 
dirtywick said:
Most companies that automate and grow and hire more people. Being inefficient isn't good for growth.
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They may hire more, which I find extremely doubtful, but they won't hire the same people.

In the same way people with down's syndrome, who were perfectly capable of being a normal part of the workforce on farms and assembly lines, are pretty much unable to find a job with a normal wage now.

And yes, I know we have welfare in European countries now, but even in countries like mine, The Netherlands, it is something that barely gives you the ability to survive day to day, with the intent of forcing people to find a job that pays better.

However, as automation grows and simpler jobs fall away, there will be a significant part of the workforce that simply will not be able to actually get a job as they'll never be able to reach the education needed.
Should those be punished for the rest of their lives for not being smart enough?
 
Sometimes I wonder if the first human who got an ox to pull his plow was accused of stealing peoples' jobs.
 
Ryokan said:
Sometimes I wonder if the first human who got an ox to pull his plow was accused of stealing peoples' jobs.
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Like the first person to invent the wheel was set upon by members of the amalgamated union of sledge builders and travois fabricators
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4Gh_IcK8UM

Just make sure you have robot insurance.

Jokes aside, yes, robots do displace jobs. Changing economics do that. New things come up that need doing along the way. Sometimes it is better for workers and sometimes it is worse. But trying to protect old ways just leaves a country behind as the world moves forward and the opportunities for growing an economy happen someplace else.
 
Kursgesagt makes some interesting points on this:

It goes through the history of automation, and points out that its different this time, as the pace of automation is greater than the new jobs being created. That successful companies today are making comparable profits with companies of the past, but with far fewer people.

But like anything, its not guaranteed. There are areas where they aren't a threat -Care sector, artisan parts of a sector, where the craft is valued, and of course much of the service sector.
 
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