More or Less is an award-winning investigative radio show and podcast from the BBC. Presented by Tim Harford, the programme examines the accuracy of statistics in the news and popular culture. Their work is frequently praised by skeptics for its diligent deconstruction and debunking of misinformation. All of which made it more disappointing when, for their January 26th 2022 episode, More or Less seemed to get it so wrong in a brief conversation about the Placebo Effect.
The Powerless Placebo
The segment opened with a guest recounting the story of Henry Beecher, a US Army doctor who, we are told, ran into a shortage of morphine while working as a surgeon during World War Two. Forced to administer inert salt water injections instead, his patients nevertheless experienced – says More or Less – ‘an astonishing amount of pain relief.’
Unfortunately, there is little evidence this story is true. When the journalist Shannon Harvey set out to verify the tale, she was unable to find it anywhere in the corpus of Beecher’s published work, or in his personal archive held by Harvard. Rather the story appears to be a corruption of a case study where Beecher administered a sedative to a wounded man instead of a painkiller, reasoning his anxiety was contributing more to the pain than the wound itself. There was no morphine shortage, or inert injections.
That aside, Beecher is responsible for probably the single most influential paper in placebo effect research. Published by JAMA in 1955, The Powerful Placebo cites ‘fifteen illustrative studies’ involving 1,082 patients, which found that placebos have an average significant effectiveness of 35.2 ±2.2%, ‘a degree not widely recognised.’
In 1997, the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology published a modern re-analysis of Beecher’s fifteen papers. The authors, Kienle and Kiene, identify a raft of things which could give a false impression of a placebo effect...