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The likelihood of new assassination attempts on Trump

How likely is it that there will be new assassination attempts on Trump in the next 4 years?

  • Almost impossible

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Less likely than most other presidents (less than average)

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • Same probability as most other presidents (laverage)

    Votes: 7 16.3%

  • More likely than most other presidents (higher than average)

    Votes: 17 39.5%

  • Almost guaranteed

    Votes: 11 25.6%

  • He will much more likely die from health issues

    Votes: 16 37.2%
  • Total voters
    43
Nova Land said:
I've seen a number of people say that if Trump dies before the inauguration that makes Vance president, but is that actually true? I'm not a constitutional lawyer, so I could be mistaken, but I don't think that's what the constitution actually says.

If Trump dies after the electoral college vote but before the inauguration, then yes, that seems correct that Vance would automatically become the new president-elect. But if Trump were to die before the states certified their electoral college votes, I don't think Vance becoming the next president would be a sure thing.

In the November election, people voted for Donald Trump to be president and for JD Vance to be vice president, which are two separate offices. If people wanted to vote for JD Vance for president they could have cast a write-in vote for him, but as far as I know there was no significant number of votes cast for him that way. It's certainly possible the people who voted for Trump as president would choose Vance as their second choice for president, but it's also possible they were voting for Trump but would prefer someone else as their second choice and might actually be against Vance taking on the job. The electors can guess whom the voters would prefer but they don't know.

I'm not aware of anything in the constitution which requires the Trump electors to vote for Vance. My (uninformed and quite possibly wrong) impression is that they'd be free to cast their votes for whomever they chose if the candidate they were committed to was dead (and to vote for Vance to be vice president, since he received the greatest number of votes in their state for that office, unless they had chosen to give him their vote for president).
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The legalities aside, though, I think if the Trump electors switched away from Vance at the last minute, there would be a big public uproar and it would go to the Supreme Court, whereupon it would make a noise like a hoop and roll away.
 
It was visible (and widely reported) that Trump lost a fair bit of weight in the past year or two, so I don't think it's as likely as people say when they say he's going to die eating. He is old, though.

I'd say the chances of death from an assassination attempt are just as likely as death from natural causes in the next 4 years.

Assassination's chances will probably rise between now and 2028 depending on how many more crazy political moves he does, but right now he's riding the wave of popularity post-win.
 
Orphia Nay said:
It was visible (and widely reported) that Trump lost a fair bit of weight in the past year or two, so I don't think it's as likely as people say when they say he's going to die eating. He is old, though.

I'd say the chances of death from an assassination attempt are just as likely as death from natural causes in the next 4 years.

Assassination's chances will probably rise between now and 2028 depending on how many more crazy political moves he does, but right now he's riding the wave of popularity post-win.
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Do you think that if an assassination attempt is made, it will be likely be organized by the Pentagon?
 
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suren said:
Do you think that if an assassination attempt is made, it will be organized by the Pentagon?
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"Pentagon officials are holding informal discussions about how the Department of Defense would respond if Donald Trump issues orders to deploy active-duty troops domestically and fire large swaths of apolitical staffers, defense officials told CNN."

Too much of a hypothetical. But basically, no.

A rogue psycho ex-staffer might do something, but no, this is CT-land.
 
Orphia Nay said:
A rogue psycho ex-staffer might do something, but no, this is CT-land.
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I suspect that one of Trump's inner circle will assassinate him in under a year as turns into a monster even they cannot stomach.
 
Game theory time....

"Mrs" Peacock in the library with the revolver? Not likely, he's never in there.

Mr Green in the conservatory? Not likely, he was fired, the plants have died, and there's a falcon nesting on the stump.

Maybe Miss Scarlett with the knife. In the forum.
 
bruto said:
Mr Green in the conservatory? Not likely, he was fired, the plants have died, and there's a falcon nesting on the stump.
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I thought, from the oldest versions of the game board I've seen, the Conservatory was originally supposed to be the music-kind, not the sun-room kind.
 
I think this is the relevant bit. 20th Amendment of the US constitution:
Section 3

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.
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suren said:
Couldn't be also a republican or/and a Trump voter who regretted later? If I remember correctly, the first attempt was actually done by a republican, although his motives might be not fully understood and he seemed to have mental problems.
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I believe the first was done by a son of hardline MAGAts and the second was the party member.
 
Hans said:
I suspect that one of Trump's inner circle will assassinate him in under a year as turns into a monster even they cannot stomach.
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I don't know if they need to. His popularity is dwindling along with his finances and health. His cultists are increasingly losing interest in him, especially now that they know they don't need him since the GOP has gone full fascist now. It'll be far easier to just 25nd Amendment him
 
If Trump is assassinated, it'll be by a former Trumper or a republican. The two attempts were done by former Trumpers, so that is one factor that informs my opinion.
 
bruto said:
I am not sanguine about the spell of Trumpism being broken any time soon. MAGA is a cargo cult in which a bogus promise not only outweighs but discredits the present. It would be a little easier to break if Trump went so far off the rails his behavior could not be overlooked, a bit less so if he died in office, but if assassinated we'd be in for a long haul, filled with mystical reverence and violent recrimination, so I do not hope for that.
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If Trump dies naturally in office there will be no shortage of conspiracies that it was due to deep state hanky panky.

Come to think of it, whenever he dies, even if it's long after he's out of office as well as under the most benign and natural of circumstances, the conspiracies will be aplenty.
 
Regnad Kcin said:
If Trump dies naturally in office there will be no shortage of conspiracies that it was due to deep state hanky panky.

Come to think of it, whenever he dies, even if it's long after he's out of office as well as under the most benign and natural of circumstances, the conspiracies will be aplenty.
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That's the beauty of rejecting reality in favor of fantasy: you can just make up whatever you like, regardless of what actually happens.

If Trump, live on television, were to pull a Budd Dwyer, a huge percentage of the population would just refuse to believe it happened at all, another percentage would believe it happened but was actually an impostor, another would believe it happened due to mind control by vampire robots, etc etc. Humans have excellent imaginations and most of their recreation is consuming fiction, it would be trivially easy to make up stories that people would believe. No matter how implausible or impossible those stories would be, someone would believe them wholeheartedly.
 
TragicMonkey said:
That's the beauty of rejecting reality in favor of fantasy: you can just make up whatever you like, regardless of what actually happens.

If Trump, live on television, were to pull a Budd Dwyer, a huge percentage of the population would just refuse to believe it happened at all, another percentage would believe it happened but was actually an impostor, another would believe it happened due to mind control by vampire robots, etc etc. Humans have excellent imaginations and most of their recreation is consuming fiction, it would be trivially easy to make up stories that people would believe. No matter how implausible or impossible those stories would be, someone would believe them wholeheartedly.
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None of that matters quite so much as Disaster Don no longer being the touchstone, the absolute core, for MAGA. When Trump dies, whether by his own hand or falling pianos or natural causes, it will be the first card falling in the unstable house of cards that is MAGA. Not that Donny will care - he'll be dead.
 
LiteBright said:
I think any serious assassination attempt would have to be state backed to be successful. With all the security after 2 failed attempts, it would be nigh on impossible for a lone wolf to pull it off.

Most likely candidate would be Iran or one of its proxies.
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To be honest, I am not sure Iran would want to target Trump at this time.

Yes, Trump is an anti-muslim bigot who is going to side with Israel and try to "attack" Iran (such as when he scuttled the Iranian nuclear deal). But what better way to garner international sympathy than to be seen as the "rational" country while your opponent is running around alienating all their allies with stupid trade wars and threats to withdraw from NATO.

If your enemy wants to shoot themselves in the foot, don't stop them.
 
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