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The likelihood of new assassination attempts on Trump

How likely is it that there will be new assassination attempts on Trump in the next 4 years?

  • Almost impossible

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Less likely than most other presidents (less than average)

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • Same probability as most other presidents (laverage)

    Votes: 7 16.3%

  • More likely than most other presidents (higher than average)

    Votes: 17 39.5%

  • Almost guaranteed

    Votes: 11 25.6%

  • He will much more likely die from health issues

    Votes: 16 37.2%
  • Total voters
    43

suren

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suren
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Messages
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Armenia, Yerevan
So far we have seen 2 attempts, and the first one was almost successful. So I wonder, if there is a dramatically increased likehood of another attempt, considering how divisive and potentially dangerous he is. What's your opinion on this, is it lower, higher or just average, and why do you think so?
 
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There is a non-zero chance that some conservatives will get together in a non-descript room somewhere and a few weeks later Trump will die of "natural causes". Either that or he will be blatantly assassinated by an extremist left-winger who no-one had ever heard of before, thus justifying massive collective punishment of all US liberals...
 
theprestige said:
I wonder how many assassination plots get foiled before they rise to the level of an attempt in the public eye.
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I just assume there are, mostly random crazies, and we only hear about the ones that get witnessed easily. Like how every so often someone drives their car into the White House fence.
 
Re the poll: well, if he doesn't die from an assassination attempt it'll likely be to do with health issues (he's kept quiet about those) or maybe there'll be a Buddy Holly/ Lynyryd Skynyrd/ Jim Reeves - type situation. But that's a different question from an assassination attempt because there could be several, many, none or only one, which if foiled, Trump still lives AND could still lead to the death by 'health issue' type or various other options.
 
Random said:
he will be blatantly assassinated by an extremist left-winger
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Couldn't be also a republican or/and a Trump voter who regretted later? If I remember correctly, the first attempt was actually done by a republican, although his motives might be not fully understood and he seemed to have mental problems.
 
suren said:
Couldn't be also a republican or/and a Trump voter who regretted later? If I remember correctly, the first attempt was actually done by a republican, although his motives might be not fully understood and he seemed to have mental problems.
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Sorry, should have put "extremist left-winger" in quotes, implying a false flag operation.
 
It's too much hassle to try and kill a sitting President.
A Presidential Candidate is just as good in terms of media attention.
 
I think any serious assassination attempt would have to be state backed to be successful. With all the security after 2 failed attempts, it would be nigh on impossible for a lone wolf to pull it off.

Most likely candidate would be Iran or one of its proxies.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
It's too much hassle to try and kill a sitting President.
A Presidential Candidate is just as good in terms of media attention.
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Jason Pargin made the point in his book 'I'm starting to worry about this black box of doom' (I'll probably be quoting it for a while) that there's little actual point in assassinating a US president because they'll be immediately suceeded by their VP who will have the exact same ideology. Pargin argues that it makes a lot more sense to kill supreme court members, since they are 'probably the closest thing the US has to royalty' --their word is near-impossible to overturn, and once appointed, they rule for life: If you don't like a SCOTUS judge, you can't just decide to replace them with a new one. On the other hand, off one, and you can appoint a new judge who might be more in line with your ideology.

(Not saying I (edit: or Pargin) encourage anyone to kill SCOTUS members, of course.)
 
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Given that the second incident before the election was not even an assassination attempt at all, and given the state of the Count Flatula's health, diet and work regimen, it's far more likely he will have a heart attack from choking on a deep-fried chicken wing.

Incidentally, I thought it would be hilarious if he did drop dead for whatever reason before he was inaugurated. Then he would never get to be #47. Admittedly, that would make Vance the prez instead. Oh well.
 
Safe-Keeper said:
...that there's little actual point in assassinating a US president because they'll be immediately suceeded by their VP who will have the exact same ideology.
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I think in a more normal timeline that'd be correct, Trump however uses, as someone here put it, the 'sack of rats' management style that plays the underlings against each other.

Outside of The Party I don't think anyone has the charisma that he does to keep the base together.
Given that he's running as a cult of personality I fully expect the lot of them to start schisming once he's no longer in the picture and given his sons I highly doubt they'll be a succession started, they've got the charisma of a moist handshake
 
Safe-Keeper said:
Jason Pargin made the point in his book 'I'm starting to worry about this black box of doom' (I'll probably be quoting it for a while) that there's little actual point in assassinating a US president because they'll be immediately suceeded by their VP who will have the exact same ideology. Pargin argues that it makes a lot more sense to kill supreme court members, since they are 'probably the closest thing the US has to royalty' --their word is near-impossible to overturn, and once appointed, they rule for life: If you don't like a SCOTUS judge, you can't just decide to replace them with a new one. On the other hand, off one, and you can appoint a new judge who might be more in line with your ideology.

(Not saying I (edit: or Pargin) encourage anyone to kill SCOTUS members, of course.)
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But if you do, Trump just gets to replace them.

I doubt very much he'll be alive in four years, his health, or lack thereof, will probably catch up with him.
 
It's interesting, the 2nd most popular opinion is that at least one new assassination is almost guaranteed. For those who think so, how probable is that one of them will succeed?
Norman Alexander said:
Then he would never get to be #47. Admittedly, that would make Vance the prez instead. Oh well.
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If Trump dies regardless of the cause, will it be better, worse or change nothing for the US? Will Vance be as bad and dangerous as Trump?
 
I don't think assassination is a good idea for anyone, even though I think Trump bears some responsibility for making assassination rhetoric a normal sort of discourse, having for so long mused on "second amendment solutions" to problems of policy and loyalty.

I think Vance no better in any useful way, but I think it doubtful whether his lack of charisma would be great enough to break the spell of Trumpism now rampant, set against the reverence for a fallen hero that would also ensue.

I am not sanguine about the spell of Trumpism being broken any time soon. MAGA is a cargo cult in which a bogus promise not only outweighs but discredits the present. It would be a little easier to break if Trump went so far off the rails his behavior could not be overlooked, a bit less so if he died in office, but if assassinated we'd be in for a long haul, filled with mystical reverence and violent recrimination, so I do not hope for that.
 
Norman Alexander said:
Incidentally, I thought it would be hilarious if [Trump] did drop dead for whatever reason before he was inaugurated. Then he would never get to be #47. Admittedly, that would make Vance the prez instead. Oh well.
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I've seen a number of people say that if Trump dies before the inauguration that makes Vance president, but is that actually true? I'm not a constitutional lawyer, so I could be mistaken, but I don't think that's what the constitution actually says.

If Trump dies after the electoral college vote but before the inauguration, then yes, that seems correct that Vance would automatically become the new president-elect. But if Trump were to die before the states certified their electoral college votes, I don't think Vance becoming the next president would be a sure thing.

In the November election, people voted for Donald Trump to be president and for JD Vance to be vice president, which are two separate offices. If people wanted to vote for JD Vance for president they could have cast a write-in vote for him, but as far as I know there was no significant number of votes cast for him that way. It's certainly possible the people who voted for Trump as president would choose Vance as their second choice for president, but it's also possible they were voting for Trump but would prefer someone else as their second choice and might actually be against Vance taking on the job. The electors can guess whom the voters would prefer but they don't know.

I'm not aware of anything in the constitution which requires the Trump electors to vote for Vance. My (uninformed and quite possibly wrong) impression is that they'd be free to cast their votes for whomever they chose if the candidate they were committed to was dead (and to vote for Vance to be vice president, since he received the greatest number of votes in their state for that office, unless they had chosen to give him their vote for president).
 
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