The Exodus Myth

fuelair said:
At least Cthulhu is more internally consistant - but we know that's fiction!!!!!
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Ah! But consistency is the bugbear of narrow minds, or something like that, so finding contradictions between the Bible and real life is the work of Satan or something.
 
MG1962 said:
Not really because it completely ignores what Exodus is, preferring instead to overlay modern sensibilities on the document for no real reason.
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I have attempted to apply some facts to a story that people like Paul Bethke are pushing forward as genuine.

Ah - I see that I Ratant has already answered for me - thanks!

I wasn't feeling well yesterday, so I went to bed early - not my intention to do a post'n'run...

:)
 
I Ratant said:
There should be a giant midden where the Hebrews spent 38 years.. full of broken and discarded stuff.
Lots of places where the fireplaces/shelters were.
Lots of waste pits for human waste.
Ain't none of this there.
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True.

It's just occurred to me - maybe "Manna" was just a code-word for an early version of Soylent Green? At least that would reduce the disposal problems...
 
Rincewind said:
Prompted by "The End" thread, I thought I'd post some notes I'd been putting together about this story. I didn't want to derail that thread...

I’ve just been reading an excellent book entitled “The Bible Unearthed”, by Israel Finkelstein and Neil Asher Silberman. For those of you who’ve not yet read it, I can recommend it highly, for anyone interested in the truth about archaeology and the Biblical stories. I won’t spoil it for you, by giving away the “plot” – at least for the moment. 

There is one train of thought not covered in the book, and I’d like to solicit your comments, please.

As you can see from the title, it concerns the story of the Exodus. The story of how in the Late Bronze Age, a very, very large bunch of slaves escaped from Egypt, and won for themselves a “new” land in Canaan by “genociding” (Exodus 23:23 “..blot them out…”) the local inhabitants. The favourite date for this being in the mid-1200’s BCE. An alternate date is in the mid-1400s BCE. It all depends on how you cherry-pick the dates. 

There are of course, many major inconsistencies in the story – here are just some:

1) Four hundred odd years in Egyptian captivity, and nothing written about them by their captors? Egyptians – the consummate graffiti artists – the people who couldn’t stop writing all over any walls available? However, as you can find in Wikipedia’s article on the History of Egypt, there are records so detailed as to describe the escape of a couple of minor convicts from Egyptian territory. Interesting, huh? Additionally, it has been stated to me, that the Egyptians never recorded a defeat, so they wouldn’t have carved their walls to show that a huge number of slaves had fled the country, especially unpunished. Frankly, that’s nonsense – at Kadesh in Syria, Ramesses II bumped into Hatusilis III, the Hittite King, and fought a major battle. It seems that for the Egyptians this battle was at best a draw, but that didn’t stop Ramesses writing up his version as a great victory. It quite easy to put an Egyptian slant on the story of the end of the captivity – how the uppity slaves started causing problems, so many of them were killed, and the remainder forced into the wilderness to perish, for example.

2) The fifth plague mentions that all of Egypt’s livestock were killed by pestilence. So how come Pharaoh chases after the Israelites in horse-drawn chariots?

3) 40 years in the desert and not a single trace, not even in Kadesh-Barnea where they apparently stayed for a good deal of time.
Deuteronomy 1:46, ”So you remained at Kadesh many days, the days that you remained there”.
Deuteronomy 2:14 And the space in which we came from Kadeshbarnea, until we were come over the brook Zered, was thirty and eight years; until all the generation of the men of war were wasted out from among the host, as the LORD sware unto them.
This site has, naturally, been identified by archaeologists as Ein-el Qudeirat and extensively excavated without finding any traces of them.

4) The Israelites clashing with peoples/rulers that didn’t exist at the time – Arad & Edom for example, and destroying cities that were there in the Middle Bronze Age and Early Iron Age, but in the Middle Bronze – alas…. (Jericho, Ai, Heshbon and the Gibeonite towns to name but a few). Under the circumstances, even the Girl Guides could have conquered Canaan! 

5) And, all of this supposedly happening during the reign of Pharaoh Ramesses II (ca. 1279-1213), one of the most powerful rulers that Egypt ever had, and ruler of the strongest superpower of the era. This was apparently managed in spite of the dreadful series of plagues inflicted by Moses & Aaron, and the loss of what must have been a major part of their workforce, that would have destroyed any kingdom – oh, and Egypt ruled all of Canaan at the same time, as well.

6) Psalm 136 states that “Pharaoh” and his army were destroyed when Moses switched the taps back on again. However, Ramesses II lived to a ripe old age, and his mummy has been found.

7) If we take the earlier date, by the way, it doesn’t get any better. This would have been during the reign of Thutmose III (ca. 1479-1425), who was called the “Napoleon of Egypt”, who is consistently regarded as one of Egypt's greatest Warrior Pharaohs and who had changed his country into an internationally respected Superpower in the Ancient World. Oh – and his mummy has also been found.

8) Pharaohs are introduced into the story, but without names. That makes me extremely suspicious – I suspect that’s because the reported events apparently happened in the 13th century BCE, but weren’t written until the 8th BCE, so by then nobody could remember who was who.

9)If Rameses II was the Pharaoh of the Exodus, then as soon as the Israelites invaded Canaan they would have clashed with Egypt again – Canaan was under Egyptian rule for most of this period – and clearly something would have been written down. Many requests from subject cities to Pharaoh for help in local disputes have been discovered, but not a single plea for assistance in repelling a huge invasion.
What happened with the Walls of Jericho, then…. In the 30’s, it was being claimed that the evidence confirmed what was written on the Book of Joshua. Then, along came a British archaeologist, Kathleen Kenyon, who redated the ruins (using Mycaenaen pottery), proving that the devastation happened no later than 1300BC, and “them walls came a’tumbling down” at least 70 years before the Israelites reportedly came out of the desert.
How about other cities that were supposedly destroyed? The Israelites were apparently attacked by the Canaanite king of Arad on the road to Atharim. Arad existed in the early Bronze-Age, approximately between 3500 and 2200BC, after which it was deserted until an Iron-Age fort was built around 1150 BC.
The Hebrews made war against the cities of Heshbon and Edom, in the Biblical story, but neither of these existed at the time. Easy victories, then?


However, in this thread I’d like to explore something else. 

The misogynistic Bible tells us that lining up for the start of the race across the desert there were “about 600,000 men on foot, besides women and children” - Exodus 12:37. Now it might be assumed that there would have been about the same number of women, only the bad guy, “Pharaoh”, had ordered that all Hebrew male infants were to be killed. The Bible does mention that some Hebrew midwives were able to save some boys, but it seems realistic to assume that many were killed in the years leading up to the Exodus. “Men on foot” suggests that there were some old men (and women, of course!) who couldn’t walk, and would be need to be carried in carts and wagons.

Let’s now have a look at what sort of population we might expect. In modern times, countries with a population percentage of ages 1-14 of 30%+, and 75 and over of less than 6% are classed as developing countries (young population), with a mainly agricultural workforce. Population pyramids displaying the equivalent age ranges of under 30% and over 6% are aging populations, typically developed countries with adequate health services. (Wikipedia, Population pyramids)

Now clearly, we can’t use these figures as anything other than a guide. I’d suspect that in a slave population you’d find far few older folks, and possibly fewer than 30% kids, due to higher infant mortality, and the Egyptian policy mentioned above.
However, throwing rounded numbers into the pot – 600,000 adult men; 800,000 women & oldies and maybe 600,000 kids gives us about 2 million. Just how 2 million people crossed Sinai without leaving a trace, of course, is totally incomprehensible. Modern archaeology can find traces of the campsites of small groups of nomads. Imagine how much waste of all sorts 2 million people would leave behind them. If you’ve ever seen the state of the arena following an open-air Pop Concert, you’ll know the sort of thing I mean.

According to the CIA World Factbook the annual death rate average for the whole world is about 8.23 per 1,000. (Wikipedia, of course – Mortality Rate) I know, I know, who believes the CIA.  But from 2 million that means 16.5K people dying each year. However, that’s the average, including the West – if we take the mortality rate of the worst nation, Angola – 180.21 – that would mean some 360,000 deaths; each year; for 40 years! OK, so it would reduce every year, but you get the picture, I’m sure. We’re talking about turning the Sinai into a huge cemetery – but, of course, without leaving any trace at all. 
By the way - 2 million people, even marching ten abreast and allowing around a yard between ranks, would form a line something like 120 miles long, without accounting for livestock etc.

Now, I want us to go back in time…… Cue weird music, and squiggly lines on the screen….

The Bible tells us that the Israelites were in captivity for 430 years – Exodus 12:40. Now Joseph and his brothers – the “fathers” of the 12 tribes of Israel - lived there for a few years before they were enslaved, so let’s round that to 450 years. The “12 tribes of Israel” - the “Fathers”, their wives and porcupines (from Black Adder – “That’s concubines, Baldrick!”) and screaming kids, at this time numbered a mere 70 people – Exodus 1:5.

From www.reshafim.org.il/ad/egypt/people/index.html - the population of Egypt in the New Kingdom is estimated as starting at between 2 and 4 million, and rising to between 2.5 and 5 million. There’s also a possibly more accurate suggestion that it developed from around 2 million to 3 million during this period. There may have been about 5 million when the Romans took over, a long time later. And the estimated population growth rate is 0.1%, by the way.

So, let’s summarise for a moment:

Israel starts with 70 people.
450 years later there are about 2 million.
In the New Kingdom, the population of Egypt may have risen from 2 to 3 million.

Clearly, it looks like the Israelites made up the majority of the population. The population of the USA is about 300 million? Just imagine the effect on the country if 200 million all decided to leave together? Disastrous, huh?
Now I don’t know what the formulae are for the calculation of population growth, but simple arithmetic show us that for the Bible to be correct, the population must have increased by a factor of 28,571 (!) during that period. Is this reasonable? It certainly looks way, way over the top to me – even if the Israelite women were treated like battery hens.

The Exodus story is supposedly set in the 13th Century BCE. Finkelstein & Silberman mention that there were several settlement waves in the Canaan Highlands – where the Israelites lived:
Early Bronze 3500-2200 BCE First wave – ca. 100 settlements
Intermediate Bronze 2200-2000 BCE Crisis – most settlements deserted
Middle Bronze 2000-1550 BCE Second wave – about 220 sites
Late Bronze 1550-1150 BCE Crisis - only about 25 settlements
Iron Age 1 1150-800 BCE Third wave – about 250 sites.

I suppose I should mention here that in current archaeological theories (see F&S again) the Israelites were not invaders of Canaan but Canaanites themselves who gradually abandoned their towns and villages in the Late Bronze and Iron Transition age (roughly 1600 to 1200 B.C.E.) because of a prolonged period of drought that forced them to give up agriculture (“Land of milk & honey?”); shifting to a semi-nomadic life based on herding. They only resettled their old homes and founded new ones when an improved climate made this possible. By then, the Iron Age was in full swing.

However, it’s the third wave that we’ll look at right now – archaeology suggests that it represented about 45,000 people at the start of the 11th Century BCE. In fact, at the height of settlement in the highlands in the eighth century BCE there were around 500 sites and about 160,000 inhabitants.

So – in about 300 years the population rose from 45,000 to 160,000, and that’s a factor of 3.5. Using 450 years this converts to a factor of 5.25. Now, if you multiply the 70 initial Israelites by 5.25 you don’t even get 400 people, let alone 2 million! 

So – where did the 2 million come from?
And – perhaps more importantly, where did they go?

(Just like the questions about the Flood! :))

This story and all of its flaws, just reinforces my opinion that much of the OT part of the Bible was written to give an insignificant group of sheep and goat herders a glorious past that never happened, and that they certainly didn’t merit, for both political and religious reasons. Much of the destruction surrounding them that their scribes attributed to their heroic ancestors was in fact caused by others – the “Sea People” at around 1200 BCE probably being the main “culprits” – but that didn’t stop them weaving a “true” story out of a bunch of myths and lies. I recall an article in MAD magazine ages and ages ago – the story of David Crockett, subtitled, ”True stories from the legendary past”.

If this story (and other “historical” Biblical tales) is basically a bunch of lies, why should we believe ANY part of the Bible? Much of the Bible can be shot full of holes so easily, so why should we let it have any more influence than, for example, Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter? All three are fiction, but at least Lord of the Rings & HP are better written with much better plotlines. 

So – what’s your take on the Exodus story?
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Very good, thanks - a couple of additional comments on the highlighted bits, which I think make your points stronger:

The mortality rate in the Bronze and Iron ages was far higher than any modern country - especially for nomads stuck in the desert for 40-years

According to this link 50% of ancient Ancient Egyptians didn't make it to their 5th Birthday, so for a stable population, 50% of the population would need to be 5 or under.

This abstract gives a life expectancy at birth of 23 for Mycenaean people

Am J Phys Anthropol. 1999 Nov;110(3):285-301.
Looking into the demography of an iron age population in the western Mediterranean. I. Mortality.
Alesan A1, Malgosa A, Simó C.
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Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to reconstruct the mortality pattern of the population buried in S'Illot des Porros (Majorca), an Iron Age necropolis in the western Mediterranean, by means of paleodemographic analysis. The skeletal sample consists of 285 individuals, 93 subadults (under 20 years old) and 192 adults. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to identify and to evaluate the structural anomalies of the skeletal sample, and second, to obtain a possible and realistic description of the biological dynamics of this population, with special reference to its mortality pattern. The study uses current demographic methodology and several demographic models (for comparison). An abridged life table was built to estimate the mortality parameters. To evaluate the likelihood of the estimated data, an indirect analysis, which consisted of a comparison of our results with different population models (Weiss [1973] American Antiquity 38; Coale and Demeny [1996] Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton: Princeton University Press; Ledermann [1969] Nouvelles tables-types de mortalité. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France), was carried out. An important bias was identified in the case of children, mostly affecting infants but also children between the ages of 1 and 5. This was interpreted as a census error due to taphonomic reasons and to an excluding differential funeral rite. A life expectancy at birth of approximately 28 years was estimated from the observed data. When this bias was removed, the estimated life expectancy at birth dropped to 23 years. The use of the Brass logit system allowed us to sketch a possible mortality profile for this population: low life expectancy, high infant mortality and hard life conditions, which were the cause of the low levels of survivorship in old ages. Am J Phys Anthropol 110:285-301, 1999.
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If we are talking about 600,000 men and a similar number of women then we are also talking about 1.2-million under fives, and significant numbers of 5-13 year olds (or whenever adulthood was)

And if the population was somehow stable in the 40-years of the desert then my sums suggest that you are looking at about 1-million births and deaths every 5-years.. For comparison, the population of England at the time of the doomsday book has been estimated at 1.5-2-million, and 4-million in Roman times 600,000 men living in the desert for 40-years is just silly.

Using Angola as a model is a good idea, but is very optimistic, as Angola's life expectancy at birth is about 51-years (according to Google) whilst Mycenae's was about 23-years according to the abstract above...
 
Rincewind said:
True.

It's just occurred to me - maybe "Manna" was just a code-word for an early version of Soylent Green? At least that would reduce the disposal problems...
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Humans were kosher?

Rincewind, nice work! This is a solid thread. With very good contributions form Leumas and other posters.
 
I Ratant said:
.
Do read some history.
Crusades.
Jihads.
Pogroms.
Witch hunts.
All inspired by that book of fables.
In much of today's world, the religious fanatics are constrained legally to yelling at us from the street corners.
In too much of today's world, the religious fanatics are -happily- murdering each other over the fantasies in their books of fables.
Watch the evening news.
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And wooooooooosh, there go the goal posts

But we are the victims of those who, like Paul, feel it is the inerrant word of his god, and, we naysayers can be inflicted with all manner of tribulation because of our unbelief.
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Still waiting for you to show me how you are a victim. Unless you are going claim you are old enough to have been impacted by one of the Crusades.
 
Rincewind said:
True.

It's just occurred to me - maybe "Manna" was just a code-word for an early version of Soylent Green? At least that would reduce the disposal problems...
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It still wouldn't get rid of problem #2. And I do mean the number two problem.

We're talking about two million people, not even counting their livestock. For 40 years straight, I might add. If the average of those humans produced about a pound of feces per day, that's around 1000 TONS of it per day. That's about 15 MILLION TONS of it in those 40 years, distributed over a narrow-ish strip, at most 1000 km long.

That's like fifteen thousand tons, or like 15,000,000 kg of crap per km. If those Jews were walking in a column 1 km wide, that's still 15 kg of crap per square metre. Assuming that density of crap is around the same as water (sometimes it floats), that's about a centimetre and a half layer of crap. (That the guys at the back of the column would be walking in :p) Or about 0.6 inches of crap, for you imperials.

Add the cattle and you can probably double that.

Add all the *ahem* watering those millions of people and cattle would do, and the fact that that contains nitrates.

Forget finding relics. You'd have the most fertile strip of land, right across the desert :p
 
MG1962 - I think there are examples in the US and Ireland in particular where people could argue that large proportions of the population are adversely affected by the religious views of others. Especially in the area of family planning.
 
HansMustermann said:
It still wouldn't get rid of problem #2. And I do mean the number two problem.

We're talking about two million people, not even counting their livestock. For 40 years straight, I might add. If the average of those humans produced about a pound of feces per day, that's around 1000 TONS of it per day. That's about 15 MILLION TONS of it in those 40 years, distributed over a narrow-ish strip, at most 1000 km long.

That's like fifteen thousand tons, or like 15,000,000 kg of crap per km. If those Jews were walking in a column 1 km wide, that's still 15 kg of crap per square metre. Assuming that density of crap is around the same as water (sometimes it floats), that's about a centimetre and a half layer of crap. (That the guys at the back of the column would be walking in :p) Or about 0.6 inches of crap, for you imperials.

Add the cattle and you can probably double that.

Add all the *ahem* watering those millions of people and cattle would do, and the fact that that contains nitrates.

Forget finding relics. You'd have the most fertile strip of land, right across the desert :p
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Excellent point Hans.

I didn't want to offend people's sensibilities....

But now, thanks to you, the job is done!

:D
 
MG1962 said:
What is the book 1984 about. Pure fiction, grounded in a backdrop of reality to produce a cautionary tale. If that backdrop is unknown to you, it completely changes the context of what the author is trying to do.

Exodus is the same. It was not trying to create historical context, it was written to try and make sense of the plight of the Jews during the Babylonian exile. There is upwards of a 600 year gap between when the events of the Exodus where supposed to have happened and when the information was written down. We have a further gap of 900 years before the book is codified into the Bible. And then a gap of 1500 years in which some people decide Exodus is absolutely true because it is in the Bible.

We are not, and never were the intended audience for Exodus.
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Good point MG1962.

But, as you point out, these days there are those who treat the story as fact.

I figured I'd try to puncture their balloon...
 
Gawdzilla said:
Because it's just campfire tales for goat-herders. Jon Stewart likes to point out that the OT is for Jews, goyim should not.:D
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And John Stewart would not be that far from the truth. The OT is about setting up for the NT. And I dont see how how the nature of the audience negates the value of the document. Remember the Illiad was written for a bunch of drunk thugs. Does knowing that devalue the work that was done?
 
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