It might be garbage, but as a lesson for our resident CTists, it's at least plausible garbage. We have agents of a foreign power, acting in the best interests of their nation, engaging in covert operations that directly, and uncomplicatedly, promote those interests. No insanely baroque plans to do one thing and claim they did another, and then blame it all on a third party, all in pursuit of a goal that none of those things would advance. No superhero magical powers needed to pull it off, just plain old patriotism, greed and self-interest.
This is what real conspiracies look like, even if this one turns out not to be true. After all, even you admit that it might have been China making off with this material, and they would likely have done it in just about the same way.