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Syria getting bad

This is going to be a bloody one, folks. Last major uprising against that Assad dynasty in 1991, you had a massive massacre in Hama.
Probably make Libya look like a picnic in comparasion.
 
Virus said:
If people were willing to stand up to a totalitarian like Ghaddafi, they'll try Assad.
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And how's that been working out for them?

I think all of Araby is watching very closely what happens in Libya.

They should have paid more attention to what happened in Iran not to long ago. Then at least they'd be prepared to be left on their own when it counts.

You'll note that these uprisings succeeded in Egypt and Tunisia, where the existing government could not or would not put them down, and where the rebels needed no western support to see things through.

Bahrain and Yemen are a different story. As was Iran. As was Syria, not too long ago. How do you imagine it'll play out in Saudi Arabia?

Libya is an interesting test case: Can any good come of the West backing these things by half measures? If the no-fly zone and the airstrikes had been there on Day One, as soon as the need for them became apparent, the rebels might have stood a chance. As things stand right now, about the best the Libyan rebels can hope for is Yet Another UN Peacekeeping Mission in Africa.

Personally, I think the Libyan rebels' only real hope at this point is a US president with the case-hardened gonads to declare a War for Oil, put Gaddafi down like the rabid dog he is, and make whatever business deal he cares to with the resulting transitional government. If it involves less terror-sponsoring and whackadoodle speeches, and more cheap oil and Mediterranean resorts, so much the better.
 
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Violence escalated in the southern Syrian city of Deraa as protests entered a sixth day. At least 15 protesters are known to have been shot dead on Wednesday and scores more injured.

In a sign that the Syrian regime is using a brutal crackdown rather than concessions to quell protests, security forces opened fire on people in three separate incidents, according to human rights activists.

At 1am on Wednesday morning, at least six people were killed when security forces opened fire on protesters surrounding the Omari mosque, after cutting electricity and communications to the site that has become the focus of demonstrations. During the day, several were reported shot as they attended funerals of victims of the mosque shooting. Syrian security forces later opened fire on scores of young people from surrounding towns as they marched towards Deraa, offering support to the protests, activists said.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/24/syria-crackdown-shooting

Good luck getting another no-fly zone... Assad will have free reign.
 
Thunder said:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110323/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_syria

this on top of the 7 killed in a mosque yesterday. this is not good.

Syria may be the next authoritarian domino to fall.
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Assad learned from daddy that unapologetic brutality buys you thirty years of peace and quiet.

That whole Gene Sharp strategy of holding the public squares and non-violent resistance works quite well in somewhat reasonable dictatorships.
But against the likes of Assad, Ahmedinijad etc. it doesn't work.
They'll jack their response up to Tianamen Square-levels, if they have to.

The only chance the demonstrators have, is creating some sort of connection with the army, which might then refuse to act against them.
This worked well in Egypt.

But knowing Syria, Assad will be able to open a can of loyal proto-nazi's.

Let's hope this goes well, people.
 
With the shootings in Yemen - 50 people killed when snipers on rooftops fired into a crowd - my opinion is that this was likely not a Presidential order but either the act of provocateurs (who wanted to inflame the situation) or else the act of elements in the military who wanted to gain power (eg Brig. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar). It was so clearly a stupid action that it is difficult to see why the President would order or approve such an action - when the effect on popular feeling was so foreseeable.

I haven't been following Syria recently, but is it possible I that the same thing could be happening there?

I was some years ago a guest of Mukhabarat in Damascus for the best part of a day (I returned to my hotel around 1 am, after having watched a lunar eclipse on the top of the security building with some general).

There had been a recent incident when some gunman had open fire on a building (UN or some foreign connection) which I asked them about. Their first answer was "How do you know about that? It hasn't appeared on TV" and I replied Al Jazeerah. "Oh, Al Jazeerah" was their less than enthusiastic response.
They then said they believed the gunman had been send by the intelligence services of a neighbouring country. Israel, I asked. They hesitated and said "maybe Israel, maybe". It wasn't until a few days later that I put their hints etc together and discovered that in fact they were thinking of Jordan.

Despite their hospitality I was to discover when I tried to return from Lebanon a few weeks later that I had been placed on a "never to enter Syria again" list (I was entitled to an automatic 72 hour transit visa at the border, which after phoning up Damascus, I was regretfully told they had express instructions not to issue) and I had to return to Beirut and fly out. Yet liars and bloviators like Robert Fisk are allowed to waltz in and out whenever they like.
 
Syria is an anti-Western regime, so I guess we can start looking forward to another war.
 
Eddie, thanks for mentioning Gene Sharp et al, the weaponizer of non-violence. This whole cooki-cutter color-coded revolution nexus bugs me for many reasons, and the limitation you cite is one of them. Gaddafi definitely knows the score with our recent track record starting with Yugoslavia in 2000, Georgia in 2002, and so on up to the events of this year. I am not familiar with the Syrian situation, but I could imagine another bloodbath of well-intentioned but too-inspired ... idiots, actually.

I fear we've opened a can of worms here promoting this stuff so heavily. Peter Acker, I believe, and others in the war-by-other means camp had in 2005 and so been pushing hard to bring this stuff to the Arab world, and had some successes with moderate test-runs to gain reforms in the Gulf kingdoms and such, plus the Cedar revolution in Lebanon, etc.

But Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc., the same thing trying to work with classic disaffected Shi'ite uprisings, other limitations emerge. And this Libya situation, coming so soon after losing their eastern support in Tunisia, has obviously escalated into a whole other thing. And now Syria ... Please, people of Syria, don't try this at home. Find another way, another day. The world is strapped enough with suffering to right and resources to do it.
 
Find another way, another day.
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History never took turns. There's never a right time to challenge statu quo.
Are bloodless major political changes an exception or a rule?

It may be foolish, hasty or dangerous but the decision to protest is up to them.
 
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Caustic Logic said:
Eddie, thanks for mentioning Gene Sharp et al, the weaponizer of non-violence. This whole cooki-cutter color-coded revolution nexus bugs me for many reasons, and the limitation you cite is one of them. Gaddafi definitely knows the score with our recent track record starting with Yugoslavia in 2000, Georgia in 2002, and so on up to the events of this year. I am not familiar with the Syrian situation, but I could imagine another bloodbath of well-intentioned but too-inspired ... idiots, actually.

I fear we've opened a can of worms here promoting this stuff so heavily. Peter Acker, I believe, and others in the war-by-other means camp had in 2005 and so been pushing hard to bring this stuff to the Arab world, and had some successes with moderate test-runs to gain reforms in the Gulf kingdoms and such, plus the Cedar revolution in Lebanon, etc.

But Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc., the same thing trying to work with classic disaffected Shi'ite uprisings, other limitations emerge. And this Libya situation, coming so soon after losing their eastern support in Tunisia, has obviously escalated into a whole other thing. And now Syria ... Please, people of Syria, don't try this at home. Find another way, another day. The world is strapped enough with suffering to right and resources to do it.
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So it's all a evil plot ,right?
 
The Syrian dictatorship seems to be playing this well. According to the AP news:

"Presidential adviser Buthaina Shaaban says the government is drafting a law that would allow political parties besides the ruling Baath party. She tells reporters that President Bashar Assad's government will begin studying a possible ending to the emergency laws in place since 1963 and putting in place mechanisms for fighting corruption. She also promised higher salaries for public servants."

The pledges appear unlikely to satisfy protesters in the city of Daraa after a violent crackdown that killed what many say are dozens of demonstrators.
 
dudalb said:
So it's all a evil plot ,right?
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I think you underestimate the power of well timed provocations to inflame the situation.

This is going back some time, but I well remember that just before the Bosnian civil war broke out there was a big protest near the Holiday Inn demanding unity and no violence in Yugoslavia - the demonstration was fired upon from a room in the Holiday Inn. The western media universally blamed Serbs - even though the demonstration was pro-unity - and soon afterwards the civil war began in earnest.

During the trial of Milosevic a lot of evidence, phone taps and intercepts, was produced that indicated that the shooting had in fact been perpetrated by Bosnian separatists. And obviously it was their agenda which benefited from it.

I know JREFers get upset when you utter the words Cui Bono - but if an action looks obviously totally counterproductive to a government's aims - ie maintaining stability. And if there is an agenda that would obviously benefit from it - you should at least consider the possibility that something other than the security forces was responsible.
 
little grey rabbit said:
I think you underestimate the power of well timed provocations to inflame the situation.

This is going back some time, but I well remember that just before the Bosnian civil war broke out there was a big protest near the Holiday Inn demanding unity and no violence in Yugoslavia - the demonstration was fired upon from a room in the Holiday Inn. The western media universally blamed Serbs - even though the demonstration was pro-unity - and soon afterwards the civil war began in earnest.

During the trial of Milosevic a lot of evidence, phone taps and intercepts, was produced that indicated that the shooting had in fact been perpetrated by Bosnian separatists. And obviously it was their agenda which benefited from it.

I know JREFers get upset when you utter the words Cui Bono - but if an action looks obviously totally counterproductive to a government's aims - ie maintaining stability. And if there is an agenda that would obviously benefit from it - you should at least consider the possibility that something other than the security forces was responsible.
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Shouldn't you be posting in the Conspiracy section? Blathering loads of unsubstantiated blather is common there.
 
Peephole said:
Syria is an anti-Western regime, so I guess we can start looking forward to another war.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hama_massacre

It would be so sad to see yet another anti-Western Baathist regime go but you are in luck: the anti-Westernism and brutal crushing of the protester's aspirations are likely to continue unchallenged by the West. You know, we'll probably give peace a chance in Syria's case.
 
Assad needs to be fed to the hogs. The little fascist has been ****-ing with our troops and allies in the region for years.
 
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