A fair point on the de Vrise experiments. I know that some of the mutations, at least, necessarily were perpetuated--after all, that's what caught his eye--but given natural populations and the way gene transfer works, it'd be pretty easy to swamp those out.
http://sysbio.oxfordjournals.org/content/57/1/15.full.pdf+html
Here's another example where specific genes are affected, resulting in some substantial morphological changes. I'd argue that many of these do not fall under the heading "small mutations", as "small" means, by your definition, barely perceptable. The transition was stepwise--not saltation, but certainly not the gradual accumulation of imperceptible alterations, either.
I'm including this to illustrate what I mean by discrete mutations having real evolutionary affects. I'm not talking hopeful monsters here. I think you and I are saying very similar things, just in different ways, and want to be as clear as possible so that we can determine where, if anywhere, we disagree.
Darwin123 said:
I agree with this weaker hypothesis that you present. The most common mode of evolution is the accumulation of small mutations.
There are two issues with this. First, mutations either happen or they don't--a nucleotide can either be A, T, C, or G. So really, all mutations are discrete, not gradational.
The second issue (and to be clear, I only included the first to illustrate what I meant by "the mechanism demands otherwise") is that any mutation, in order to be selected for or against, must have some measurable affect on the organism. If it doesn't, there's no way for it to affect fitness. It can be within the normal range of the population--and in many cases will necessarily be (many traits are combinations of genetics and environment; take human height for example)--but it has to have some affect, and that affect must be mesurable. Otherwise, we're looking at things like third-nucleotide variability.
The Shrike said:
Emphasis mine. I'm totally with you, but for the fact that Hedges' analysis addressed species.
From a phylogenetic standpoint, it doesn't matter what taxonomic rank is involved, the principles stay the same. Variability in species is variability within the limits set by the higher taxonomic orders that species is a member of, and those limitations are due to the fact that higher-order taxonomic rankings merely reflect ancestery. From a strictly taxonomic standpoint this may not be true--taxonomy was developed long before evolutionary theory--but from a phylogentic standpoint the only real difference between two species and two phyla is that the two species branched off later.
Hedges is claiming "the" rate at which new species arise. Were I doing this research, I would have described first what one species concept I was applying and by what criteria I would identify a new species. I would make sure I applied the same criteria in each case.
Why? As long as you're careful, switching concepts doesn't make much difference. And again, it's standard practice in situations where you're dealing with extant and extinct organisms. It introduces some heafty issues concerning how to translate one concept into the other, but such issues are not insurmountable. And to be blunt, if this analysis is worth the paper it's printed on we'll have to address these issues sometime--there are very, VERY few clades that extend to 2 ma and for which all organisms involved are extant, which means that Hedges' analysis requires both extant and extinct organisms. May as well face this issue head-on, since it will make or break the concept in terms of utility.
Beak length, depth, width, gonydeal angle - all are important in morphological distinctions among birds, but there's also a great deal of overlap in these characters among closely related species.
I recommend exploring PAST and PAUP, two multivariant statistical packages that are commonly used in paleontology. They are geared specifically for this type of analysis. I believe PAUP you need to pay for, but PAST is free.