So Newt's in Freefall

I think we need to re-think that.

How about just credible candidates? Those that have filed nominating petitions in a sufficient number of states to attain a majority of the delegates would be the obvious test.

In the gigantic clusterfrack that is the US electoral system, controlled completely by the two parties, IMO how they choose the candidates for the dog-and-pony-show debates is not the most pressing concern.
 
Something must have changed in the dozen years since I stopped paying attention, because I can't help but wonder what (special) importance the Iowa caucuses are in GOP primary politics? It had some relevance to Dem politics since McGovern's campaign used it to advance his dark horse candidacy in '72, and if I recall correctly Carter's campaign (Hamilton Jordan, something like that?) used a similar tactic, but it's never been much of a factor in GOP politics other than the front-runner usually does well for obvious reasons and it gives the rest of the field that participates the opportunity to prostrate themselves before ethanol farmers and hardcore social conservatives. Isn't Paul leading that poll something of an indication it's pretty meaningless? It's free media for fringe candidates for the most part, they often do well there, but to little avail. I think Keyes finished third there one year he ran.

I don't recall Bush the Elder doing well there in '88, nor did McCain even bother much in '00 other than to say 'ethanol sucks!' at some point in a debate. New Hampshire can mean something, Iowa seldom does, though obvious front-runners will generally do fairly well. Has something changed in the last dozen years?
 
New Hampshire can mean something, Iowa seldom does, though obvious front-runners will generally do fairly well. Has something changed in the last dozen years?

Iowa generally votes for more conservative candidates. Conventional wisdom would therefore indicate that if Newt can't win in Iowa, he may not be able to win elsewhere either. People might stop donating to his campaign which could spell the end of the road for him.

-Bri
 
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Iowa generally votes for more conservative candidates. Conventional wisdom would therefore indicate that if Newt does poorly in Iowa, people might stop donating to his campaign which could spell the end of the road for him.

-Bri

How long is the gap between the Iowa (now a primary?) event and the New Hampshire primary? That's the one that used to matter in GOP politics, Iowa was preseason. Sometimes top candidates didn't even bother there, and a major push like Bush the Elder made in '80 (I think he beat Reagan--'The Big Mo' moment) comes to naught.
 
Well, there's this guy, who nobody seems to have noticed.
He only looks good to independents and centrists because he wants to legalize weed. (This may be related in part to his personal life style, if you get my drift.)

In all other respects, he way out in the boonies of Rightyland. His idea of tax reform is to end corporate taxation and capital gains taxes, supposedly because this will get them to hire people again. The boy's a slow learner, like just about all of the GOP.

There's also the fact that he has turned about half the state prisons over to the slave labor industry.

Not somebody we need running the show.
 
Newt's problem is that he's an incredibly unlikeable person, so the more people see of him, the less they like him.
 
How long is the gap between the Iowa (now a primary?) event and the New Hampshire primary?

You're right, Iowa is a caucus and not a primary, but both caucuses and primaries are part of the primary process. Some states have caucuses and some have primaries. The difference is that in primaries, voters vote directly for the candidates, whereas in caucuses voters select delegates for nominating conventions. FactCheck.org has an article on the differences between a caucus and a primary.

The Iowa caucus is January 3rd, the New Hampshire primary is January 10th. Here's the full 2012 Primary Schedule if you're interested.

That's the one that used to matter in GOP politics, Iowa was preseason. Sometimes top candidates didn't even bother there, and a major push like Bush the Elder made in '80 (I think he beat Reagan--'The Big Mo' moment) comes to naught.

I think (and someone can correct me if I'm wrong) the main reason that Iowa doesn't generally determine the outcome of an election is that Iowa has a stronger tendency than most states to select the most conservative candidate, which isn't always the strongest candidate to compete in the primaries.

-Bri
 
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In Iowa, intensity of feeling and ground game are a lot more important than in a primary state. I don't think it's terrible to lead off with a caucus. It can give a bit of a heads up to the rest of the country about what candidates people feel passionately about.

But it can lead to kooky outcomes, too.
 
Newt's problem is that he's an incredibly unlikeable person, so the more people see of him, the less they like him.
Like Trump he thinks he doesn't even have to feign some degree of humility. I would really be blown away if he won the primary and went on to win the general election. It's not impossible but he's got a lot of baggage to white wash.
 
Given the current crop of GOP candidates, what did you figure the chances were that we might see a non-kooky outcome this time?

Well, while I think he's not exactly appealing, Romney doesn't strike me as kooky. The rest of them, though? Lordy.
 
Well, while I think he's not exactly appealing, Romney doesn't strike me as kooky. The rest of them, though? Lordy.

How sad is it when the guys who believe the Indians are descended from ancient Christians and that God lives on a planet called Kolob are the least kooky candidates?
 
Well, while I think he's not exactly appealing, Romney doesn't strike me as kooky. The rest of them, though? Lordy.
Oddly enough I agree. And I would say Huntsman also. I say "oddly" because being former Mormon I was decidedly against a Mormon for president. But if I had to choose a GOP candidate it would be one of the two. Probably Huntsman. At least he accepts evolution and global warming.
 

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