• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Merged So Ebola's back......

Cuddles said:
Not in the slightest. The worst outbreak of Ebola ever has so far killed less than 700 people over the course of 6 months. Influenza kills around 500,000 people every year, and is exactly as easy to treat. Measles kills hundreds of thousands. TB kills millions. Sure, those two have vaccines and are treatable given the resources. Yet vaccines and treatments aren't perfect, the UK had a big outbreak of measles just over a year ago, and TB resistant to most or all antibiotics is spreading. And those are just a few obvious examples off the top of my head.

Ebola is a nasty disease, but it's uncommon and doesn't spread easily. Avoiding contact with infected people's bodily fluids is basically all that is required to avoid catching it. The current outbreak is a problem largely because of the conditions in the area - poor, little medical care, virtually no real borders, and so on. Even if it did spread to other countries, we'd be looking at isolated cases, not a virulent pandemic sweeping the world and wiping out civilisation as we know it.
Click to expand...

From what I understand, the current outbreak is the worst yet.

Many reports are indicating that some of the cultural practices in the area tend to make the outbreaks worse than they would be if the outbreaks had occurred in different cultures. The ways they handle the dead and dying, the mourning and funeral rites, and so on.

Also, ebola kills its victims quite fast; they don't have much time to infect others or travel far. It is human to human transmission; fleas, rats, mosquitos, birds, and other such beasties do not harbor or spread the ebola like they can with a variety of other diseases. Ebola tends to have very intense but localized outbreaks, shutting down transportation is often enough to contain outbreaks until the outbreaks run their course. If course, shutting down transportation gets harder and harder all the time.

It is a very nasty disease, but I don't think there is much chance of it causing a world-wide pandemic. Then again the doctors working on the outbreak know more than anyone about how it is transmitted, and how to keep safe - but some of those doctors have become infected anyway.
 
Farsight said:
See for example The Ebola Virus: Candidate for Genetic Mutation?

"It has been speculated that one of the virus' strains--Ebola Reston--has 'airborne' qualities, therefore making it transmittable via, well, air. While many scientists challenge this view and maintain that none of Ebola's four identified strains can be transmitted in such means, it provokes the question: how does a virus that kills its host so quickly ensure its progression and evolution?"
Click to expand...
Two ways: by being much less lethal in an animal reservoir, and/or by mutating into an attenuated form.

As long as the animal reservoir for ebola is sufficient to perpetuate and spread the virus it doesn't matter if it is rapidly fatal in humans.

But the longer it stays in the human population, the attenuated mutations emerge as dominate versions.
 
crescent said:
From what I understand, the current outbreak is the worst yet.

Many reports are indicating that some of the cultural practices in the area tend to make the outbreaks worse than they would be if the outbreaks had occurred in different cultures. The ways they handle the dead and dying, the mourning and funeral rites, and so on.

Also, ebola kills its victims quite fast; they don't have much time to infect others or travel far. It is human to human transmission; fleas, rats, mosquitos, birds, and other such beasties do not harbor or spread the ebola like they can with a variety of other diseases. Ebola tends to have very intense but localized outbreaks, shutting down transportation is often enough to contain outbreaks until the outbreaks run their course. If course, shutting down transportation gets harder and harder all the time.

It is a very nasty disease, but I don't think there is much chance of it causing a world-wide pandemic. Then again the doctors working on the outbreak know more than anyone about how it is transmitted, and how to keep safe - but some of those doctors have become infected anyway.
Click to expand...
Someone infected with Ebola Zaire can be infectious but asymptomatic for 5-7 days. Further Ebola does infect other mammals, such as rats and bats,, as well as other primates; in fact bats are probably the main reservoir for the virus, spreading it to humans via bite.

However compared to Lassa fever (another viral haemorrhagic fever) Ebola not particularly infectious and tends to 'burn out' quickly; contact with rat feces can spread Lassa and there are ~300,000 cases annually (with 3-5,000 fatalities).

The WHO position on Ebola is that it's a deadly but localised disease requiring rapid response based on standard public health strategies.
 
The problem with "standard public health strategies" is that the sort of countries that are infected with ebola don't have the infrastructure necessary (hospitals, sanitation, policing, research)
 
NWO Sentryman said:
The problem with "standard public health strategies" is that the sort of countries that are infected with ebola don't have the infrastructure necessary (hospitals, sanitation, policing, research)
Click to expand...
True, hence the need fro mobile response teams as have been deployed.
 
You should be concerned, but not scared.
However, if you see Politicians try to get involved,be afraid,be very afraid.....
 
The Peace Corps is withdrawing its volunteers from the three countries at the center of the outbreak.

Also, the conspiracy theory and paranoia machines seem to be getting up to speed. Maybe the Peace Corps folks can be placed in the FEMA death camps.

More seriously, this probably really sucks for the PCVs. They are encouraged to make close friends and have host families. Leaving early can be pretty hard for them. Plus, there is a good chance that many of them lived nowhere near any of the outbreaks and were in little or no immediate risk. A lot of them are nurses and could have been useful in helping the host county health care workers prepare an expanded outbreak.



ETA: It looks like two of them came into contact with an Ebola infected person and are under observation. Those two will not return stateside until they are cleared.
 
Last edited:
Farsight said:
See for example The Ebola Virus: Candidate for Genetic Mutation?

"It has been speculated that one of the virus' strains--Ebola Reston--has 'airborne' qualities, therefore making it transmittable via, well, air. While many scientists challenge this view and maintain that none of Ebola's four identified strains can be transmitted in such means, it provokes the question: how does a virus that kills its host so quickly ensure its progression and evolution?"
Click to expand...

A virus -which outsources its reproduction- mutating? Colour me surprised.

«it provokes the question: how does a virus that kills its host so quickly ensure its progression and evolution?» ... well, if it works that way with all the species that can host it, most strains, if not all of them, will become extinct quickly. If it takes a decade, a century or a millennium is another question.
 
Travis said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/...0878.html?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000044&ir=Green

When the lead doctor you send in to combat an outbreak dies in the outbreak I get a bit concerned. And there is news other doctors have contracted Ebola in their fight against it.

Ebola is scary stuff. Even with medical treatment it has a mortality rate that is terrifying.
Click to expand...

NPR had a person more expert than I on that very thing about two hours ago (Orlando). The explanation is the doctors and related professionals working with Ebola patients are putting in 12-15 hours in 90+ oF conditions and wearing protective suits that make their temp exposure over 100F for a very long time. The implication is things that would be minor occur easier due to heat and lack of sleep. And may not even be noticed.......

As to on planes and in US, massively unlikely. Ebola goes real fast and well in African village/poverty conditions, not so much in the US........
 
Last edited:
aleCcowaN said:
A virus -which outsources its reproduction- mutating? Colour me surprised.

«it provokes the question: how does a virus that kills its host so quickly ensure its progression and evolution?» ... well, if it works that way with all the species that can host it, most strains, if not all of them, will become extinct quickly. If it takes a decade, a century or a millennium is another question.
Click to expand...

The virus already appears to have mutated significantly enough to cut its own fatality rate from 90% to 60%.
 
Anybody been watching the Commonwealth games? What if there's some African athlete or associate who's already got Ebola? The incubation period is said to be 3 weeks. The Commonwealth games closing ceremony is August 3rd. What if there's then a significant number of people flying home with flu-like symptoms? Yes it's conjecture, yes it's unlikely, yes it's paranoid. But it's possible. And with ever-increasing population and international travel, pandemic isn't getting less likely. It's getting more likely. IMHO the risks are greater than all other concerns put together.
 
ehcks said:
The virus already appears to have mutated significantly enough to cut its own fatality rate from 90% to 60%.
Click to expand...

Yes, because virus evolution is the only possible cause of that drop. Physicians gaining experience, trying new treatments, and new facilities and equipment provided to the endangered areas are to be ruled out as a contributor to this drop.
 
aleCcowaN said:
Yes, because virus evolution is the only possible cause of that drop. Physicians gaining experience, trying new treatments, and new facilities and equipment provided to the endangered areas are to be ruled out as a contributor to this drop.
Click to expand...

They still haven't found any new treatments besides coagulants to prevent self-exsanguination.
 
ehcks said:
They still haven't found any new treatments besides coagulants to prevent self-exsanguination.
Click to expand...
But it was mentioned they are treating people supportively earlier in the course of their infections.

Re mutating to another route of transmission, that would be highly unusual.

Some strains of influenza are more airborne than droplet spread, and the disease is spread as a fecal oral infection in birds. But you don't see viruses like hepatitis B or HIV becoming airborne despite infecting large numbers of people.

Yes, it can happen, but it's not something that is very common. Generally viruses are very specific as to the cells they initially enter to cause infection. Switching to a different route of transmission would likely involve a whole change in the means of attaching to the surface protein of the cells the virus infects. In addition it would need to be shed from a site that launches it into the air, which also involves some very specific genetics.

I would think that someone coughing blood could send some virus infected fluids into the air a short distance. But that's different than something which is truly airborne.
 
Farsight said:
Anybody been watching the Commonwealth games? What if there's some African athlete or associate who's already got Ebola? The incubation period is said to be 3 weeks. The Commonwealth games closing ceremony is August 3rd. What if there's then a significant number of people flying home with flu-like symptoms? Yes it's conjecture, yes it's unlikely, yes it's paranoid. But it's possible. And with ever-increasing population and international travel, pandemic isn't getting less likely. It's getting more likely. IMHO the risks are greater than all other concerns put together.
Click to expand...

You clearly neglected to catch my post on that kind of thing above!! Not my information, info from a real source on NPR.
 
ehcks said:
They still haven't found any new treatments besides coagulants to prevent self-exsanguination.
Click to expand...

Different coagulants with different schedules may do the difference.

Besides, Wiki contains info related to mortality during outbreaks of different strains: Zaire ebolavirus, from 55% to 90% (the oldest with 59%, the newest 61%); Sudan ebolavirus, from 41% to 65%.
 
Great, so the next time I'm vacationing in Africa during the full moon, I should stay away from the sick and weak and only hunt the strong and healthy. Got it.
 
I work for a medical equipment rental company. There was a management level email discussion about our cleaning protocols and the spread of the virus. Happy to say our processes more than met the requirements to defeat this little beastie
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom