Should we have a meteor/comet interdiction program?

[Mike!]

The plan apparently involved sending into space on Saturn Vs half a dozen nuclear bombs which were more than twice as large as any nuclear bomb ever built. These would have detonated over a period of time in hopes of nudging Icarus away from its impact with Earth.


I'm definitely opposed to developing a "Project Icarus"-style system. The odds that even the objects we will catalogue (Icarus-style asteroids) will strike Earth are astonomical. To build a system that involves developing more massive nuclear bombs, launching them into space, and detonating them to deal with an even less likely hypothetical threat just seems like a foolish waste of money.

That is one thing that we have developed down to a fine science.

 

[dudalb]

Only if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall are in charge....

 

[gumboot]

In the screenplay I'm working on this is what ultimately dooms humanity, a lack of a large booster and not enough time to build one. Of course it does give me an opportunity to fill most of the script with humanity tearing itself apart as the end approaches. Lots of drama.

Not particularly original...

 

[gumboot]

I'm definitely opposed to developing a "Project Icarus"-style system. The odds that even the objects we will catalogue (Icarus-style asteroids) will strike Earth are astonomical. To build a system that involves developing more massive nuclear bombs, launching them into space, and detonating them to deal with an even less likely hypothetical threat just seems like a foolish waste of money.

This. The odds of a significant impact event are much lower than the odds of a significant volcanic event that could be equally as devastating. It seems totally nonsensical to invest billions of dollars into trying to prevent something that *might* happen some time in the next 50 million years.

Given how much humanity has developed just in the last ten thousand years, it's impossible for us to even conceive of what humanity might be capable of, what it might look like, or even whether it will exist when and if the next ELE impact occurs.

It's also worth pointing out that only one impact event is associated with a major extinction, and it's still debated just how much of that extinction event was due to the impact, given other factors occurring at the same time. By contrast 11 flood basalt eruptions and 7 sea-level falls are directly linked to major extinctions.

Perhaps most importantly, all major extinction events appear to occur when an already-stressed biosphere experiences a short-duration shock event that acts much like the straw breaking the proverbial camel's back. Given the low probability of an extinction-causing event of any type it makes much more sense to invest our resources in trying to prevent the biosphere from experiencing long-term stress which will mean if one of these potential ELEs does occur, the biosphere will be able to absorb the effects without significant extinctions.

 

[Travis]

The plan apparently involved sending into space on Saturn Vs half a dozen nuclear bombs which were more than twice as large as any nuclear bomb ever built. These would have detonated over a period of time in hopes of nudging Icarus away from its impact with Earth.


I'm definitely opposed to developing a "Project Icarus"-style system. The odds that even the objects we will catalogue (Icarus-style asteroids) will strike Earth are astonomical. To build a system that involves developing more massive nuclear bombs, launching them into space, and detonating them to deal with an even less likely hypothetical threat just seems like a foolish waste of money.

I think the Project Icarus system is the best option we have against a cometary threat.

I have to ask: does your story include some members of congress believing the whole thing is a hoax designed to siphon money away from the U.S. economy (ala Global Climate Change)?

Oh you bet, really deluded right wingers. The twist is that they team up with eco-terrorists.

Not particularly original...

Eh, you'll have to trust me that it is different.

 

[Crossbow]

At present, I do not see any point in a metorite interdiction program.

After all, the larger ones that we can see months before they get near are so large that we cannot properly interdict them before they would contact the Earth. And the smaller ones appear so quickly and so close to the Earth that we cannot properly interdict them before they would contact the Earth.

Therefore, I think that a better approach is to watch for both the larger ones and the smaller ones in order to try to provide the maximum amount of warning time. And by the way, this activity is going on right now.