Scottish independence how likely is it?

[andyandy]

This is how i understand things at the moment....

the SNP are on course to win the most seats in the upcoming elections - but are likely to fall short of a governing majority....and so a coalition would be necessary, but neither the liberal democrats nor labour would enter into a coalition with the SNP [i heard on the radio i don't know if it's a definite ]...so firstly what will happen if the SNP win, but don't hold a majority? And how will a non-labour government affect politics in Westminster?

secondly the SNP have pledged to hold a referendum if they do get into power....

now how likely would that be to be passed [current estimates? Future projections?] and what would be the likely impact on the UK?
Apart from no longer winning curling medals at the Olympics?

There seems two very conflicting arguments about whether scotland is better off without the union, or if it would be worse off, and it seems to revolve around ownership of oil rights....ie where would Britain's assets be divided if there was to be a split?

i think that's enough questions for starters

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

This is how i understand things at the moment....

the SNP are on course to win the most seats in the upcoming elections - but are likely to fall short of a governing majority....and so a coalition would be necessary, but neither the liberal democrats nor labour would enter into a coalition with the SNP [i heard on the radio i don't know if it's a definite ]...so firstly what will happen if the SNP win, but don't hold a majority? And how will a non-labour government affect politics in Westminster?

According to the polls at the moment, SNP look likely to be largest party. However I can't find from an admittedly brief google what that actually means (e.g. do they get a specified period to try and form a coalition with a majority). Labour will not deal with the SNP. LibDems say they won't but I would not completely rule it out. Tories won't. Greens/SSP/Independents/Others won't have the necessary seats.

As for the impact on politics, depends who ends up forming the government - my best guess would be Labour / Liberal coalition if they get enough seats. In that case it is business as usual in terms of relationship with Westminster, but probably political suicide for the LibDems in Scotland long term.

secondly the SNP have pledged to hold a referendum if they do get into power....

now how likely would that be to be passed [current estimates? Future projections?] and what would be the likely impact on the UK?
Apart from no longer winning curling medals at the Olympics?

According to this listing of polls, it would be extremely close:

http://www.independence1st.com/content/polls.shtml

However this ignores any impact of campaigning (and the media is overwhelmingly opposed to independence so this is likely to reduce support).

If passed the UK, as it currently stands would no longer exist.

There seems two very conflicting arguments about whether scotland is better off without the union, or if it would be worse off, and it seems to revolve around ownership of oil rights....ie where would Britain's assets be divided if there was to be a split?

He who pays the economist/statistician calls the tune.

i think that's enough questions for starters

 

[Rolfe]

I read an interesting article at the weekend quoting numerous speeches by UK politicians and royalty, commending newly-independent small states on their new status, and heartily endorsing their decision. Also making it clear that they wished to do everything possible to facilitate the international recognition of said small state. Accepting that when a state has control of its own assets and policy relating to these assets, the likelihood is that it will be more prosperous.

Until it comes to Scotland, when the sky will fall, there will be snow in August, all harvests will fail and the oil in the North Sea will instantly dry up, if these weak and incompetent Scots should have the temerity to imagine any of that applied to them. Oh yes, and all businesses will instantly pack up and relocate, including the Scotch whisky producers.

The argument isn't really about economics, it's about desire for one's country to be a nation state. Some people have this desire, others don't. This latter group includes all those political careers which are vested in continuing to belong to the Westminster parliament (and even in being PM), which they can't of course do if they represent a Scottish constituency and Scotland is an independent state. And guess who gets most of the media coverage when pontificating about how we really mustn't even dream about independence....

Rolfe.

 

[Cheesejoff]

I'm unsure myself about whether independance is good for Scotland or not. The arguments on both sides are distorted and it's hard to get a clear picture of who will actually benefit.

A few interesting points , Ireland has a higher GDP than the UK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:EU-GDP-PPP-pc-map.png) which basically settles any claims that Scotland will become a third world country if we go independant.

However, oil in the North is Sea is limited, both in the way that it will eventually run out and we will (hopefully) invent a new kind of fuel. On the other hand, England will always be rich


Also Scotland is a predominantly left-wing country. Labour are at least slightly socialist, the SSP and Solidarity are nearly Marxist, the SNP, Liberals and the Greens are all left-wing as well. The only right-wing parties are the tories and the pensioners party...

So there are people on the right in England who actually want Scotland to be independant.

 

[mummymonkey]

Any argument that Scotland would somehow be transformed into an economic powerhouse post separation is a fantasy on a par with Salmond's horse racing tips.

Still, "Freedom!!" and all that.

 

[hgc]

...

The argument isn't really about economics, it's about desire for one's country to be a nation state. Some people have this desire, others don't. This latter group includes all those political careers which are vested in continuing to belong to the Westminster parliament (and even in being PM), which they can't of course do if they represent a Scottish constituency and Scotland is an independent state. And guess who gets most of the media coverage when pontificating about how we really mustn't even dream about independence....

Rolfe.

You kinda make it sound like the latter group includes only those whose political careers are vested in Westminster. Surely their votes alone aren't enough to keep Scotland in the UK. Are there any other Scots who want to stay? What's their interest?

 

[Darat]

Don't think it will happen in my lifetime.

ETA - and I think the more power the SNP get the less likely it will be to happen!

 

[hgc]

Anyone remember this from Trainspotting?

Tommy: Doesn't it make you proud to be Scottish?

Mark: It's sh!te being Scottish! We're the lowest of the low. The scum of the f**king Earth! The most wretched miserable servile pathetic trash that was ever ◊◊◊◊ on civilization. Some people hate the English. I don't. They're just wankers. We, on the other hand, are colonized by wankers. Can't even find a decent culture to get colonized by. We're ruled by effete a**holes. It's a sh!te state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and all the fresh air in the world won't make any f**king difference!

 

[FarmallMTA]

Please tell me we get to tell Scotsman jokes in this thread...

Anyway, here's one...

A dour elderly Scotsman gets on the train in London for Glasgow. The train stops at the first little town a few miles north of London and the Scotsman jumps up and rushes off the train, barely making it back before the train leaves the station. At the next little town where the train stops, he rushes off again, and the conductor has to pull him aboard as the train gathers speed when departing. This goes on for several dozen towns along the line, each time the Scotsman barely making it back from the station in time and becoming increasingly fatigued.

Finally, after he's collapsed wheezing hard and about to pass out from his last mad dash back to the train, another passenger taps him on the shoulder and informs him that the train has a bathroom and that he doesn't have to use the one in the stations. The Scotsman snorts that he's not using the bathroom, but buying a ticket to the next town. The other passenger smilingly tells him that the railroad would gladly sell him a ticket straight through to Glasgow so that he doesn't have to buy tickets at each town.

The short-tempered Scotsman glowers at the helpful passenger and says, "Alas, sonny, I can't be doing that. I'm a dying man and me doctor informs that I'd better get back home and see the folks one last time before I'm finally called."

In response to the obviously puzzled look on the Englishman's face, he impatiently wheezes, "Don't ye see, man! I could cack off any time during this journey and I'd have paid all the way to Glasgow!"


So, you see, the way to keep the British Empire together is simple. The English say, fine, we'll break up, but you Scots have to pay the bill for it. End of separation right there.

By the way. My mother was full blooded Scots and was the very embodiment of every Scots joke ever told.

 

[Rolfe]

Never mind, Darat, I get a vote. And having sussed early enough that the choice was between leaving the votes at the old address (won't be sold till end of May) or moving them to new address (bought end of March), it was a no-brainer. Either get a token chance to say "well I didn't vote for MacDonald (oops sorry McConnell)", or a vote in a genuine marginal with every prospect of a victory.

The change of electoral registration forms went out even before the removal firm was organised!

Rolfe.

 

[Wat Tyler]

I'd say the chances of Scotland gaining Independence are about as strong as those of the Westminster Parliament ceding control of the Oil revenues to Edinburgh.

Or, for that matter, of Westminster allowing England to have its own Parliament/Assembly.

Which is to say, nil.

 

[andyandy]

Any argument that Scotland would somehow be transformed into an economic powerhouse post separation is a fantasy on a par with Salmond's horse racing tips.

Still, "Freedom!!" and all that.

lol

on one hand i do think that small nation states seem to work better than larger ones - 1-5 million seems to provide a good balance of a responsive social state with an economy large enough to support it, but on the other hand i simply can't see the rest of the union just agreeing to give a newly independent scotland all British assets that just happen to be in scottish territory [and indeed where is the boundary for scottish territorial water relative to British territorial water?].....it'll be like one of those messy divorces - and without a court of law to keep things in check it'll probably end up in a war

 

[FarmallMTA]

lol

on one hand i do think that small nation states seem to work better than larger ones - 1-5 million seems to provide a good balance of a responsive social state with an economy large enough to support it

Hmmm. That notion sure works like a sonofab!tch in Zimbabwe? Might want to reconsider that thesis.

 

[andyandy]

Hmmm. That notion sure works like a sonofab!tch in Zimbabwe? Might want to reconsider that thesis.

*sigh*

I don't believe it was offered as a thesis, nor do i doubt the fact that one can find counter examples - one can equally find examples of large states that have failed their people - should that lead us to conclude that population size is not a relevant consideration for responsive social state models?

 

[richardm]

without a court of law to keep things in check it'll probably end up in a war

Suddenly, basing those Trident subs on the Clyde doesn't seem like such a good idea, eh?

 

[andyandy]

Suddenly, basing those Trident subs on the Clyde doesn't seem like such a good idea, eh?

we've taken Scotland's insubordination for far too long now, it's time to send in the tanks.....

 

[Cheesejoff]

lol

on one hand i do think that small nation states seem to work better than larger ones - 1-5 million seems to provide a good balance of a responsive social state with an economy large enough to support it, but on the other hand i simply can't see the rest of the union just agreeing to give a newly independent scotland all British assets that just happen to be in scottish territory [and indeed where is the boundary for scottish territorial water relative to British territorial water?].....it'll be like one of those messy divorces - and without a court of law to keep things in check it'll probably end up in a war

Well there was no war when Ireland became independant. Oil is divided up based on 'international law', according to Salmond.

In fact, looking at Ireland's economy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:EU-GDP-PPP-pc-map.png) it has one of the highest GDP's in Europe. Higher, in fact, than the rest of the UK.

 

[andyandy]

Well there was no war when Ireland became independant. Oil is divided up based on 'international law', according to Salmond.
.

so if international law was followed, how would Britain's oil be divided?

 

[Darat]

so if international law was followed, how would Britain's oil be divided?

If based on the Irish example - however the English & Welsh want it to be.

If based on international law - however the English & Welsh want it to be - we've got the armed forces.

 

[andyandy]

If based on international law - however the English & Welsh want it to be - we've got the armed forces.

and a UN veto....