Scott Watson

[Samson]

Samson, have you ever been to the Marlborough Sounds?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/F...1s0x6d3ed38344327b2b:0x1a0e7cc4bf19ab57?hl=en

Disappearing a couple of bodies there would be quite easy. If they were murdered during the early hours of the morning on New Year's Day, the killer had plenty of time to do it under cover of darkness. Furneaux Lodge is only only about 7 km from the entrance to Endeavour Inlet and access to the rest of the Sounds, and only a further 15 km from the Cook Strait. Someone with extensive knowledge of boating in the Sounds to navigate it easily at night without lights. A small boat, a couple of hours, a couple of chains and an anchor is all you would need.

Yes I know the sounds well, including the inlet and location. But I am looking at this proposition as follows, unless I have it wrong.
1. Guy Wallace dropped the three at the ketch, one of whom was the owner.
2. They separated from the owner and ended on a fizz boat rafted to the ketch with their killer, and an engine was started with no one on the ketch noticing (the police would have found a witness to this surely), and were dumped.
3.There happened to be enough anchor weight on the fizz boat to weigh down two bodies, and here is a post that discusses this issue.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10452581&postcount=208

I realise strong currents are not relevant here, but you see the point. Having said that, Watson would also need the weight, but he had more time.

 

[smartcooky]

Yes I know the sounds well, including the inlet and location. But I am looking at this proposition as follows, unless I have it wrong.
1. Guy Wallace dropped the three at the ketch, one of whom was the owner.
2. They separated from the owner and ended on a fizz boat rafted to the ketch with their killer, and an engine was started with no one on the ketch noticing (the police would have found a witness to this surely), and were dumped.
3.There happened to be enough anchor weight on the fizz boat to weigh down two bodies, and here is a post that discusses this issue.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10452581&postcount=208

I realise strong currents are not relevant here, but you see the point. Having said that, Watson would also need the weight, but he had more time.

Except that the ketch, its owner and those on board have never been found, so we have no way of knowing what went on on the ketch, if anything.

Guy Wallace said the man that offered Ben and Olivia a bed for the night on his ketch had not shaved or combed his hair. He said that the man seemed only interested in offering Olivia a berth for the night and not her companion, saying the man gestured towards Olivia saying “you can come”, and then gesturing towards her companion, saying “but you can’t”. Wallace said he had a funny feeling about the encounter but the two young people assured him they would be fine.

 

[Samson]

Except that the ketch, its owner and those on board have never been found, so we have no way of knowing what went on on the ketch, if anything.

Guy Wallace said the man that offered Ben and Olivia a bed for the night on his ketch had not shaved or combed his hair. He said that the man seemed only interested in offering Olivia a berth for the night and not her companion, saying the man gestured towards Olivia saying “you can come”, and then gesturing towards her companion, saying “but you can’t”. Wallace said he had a funny feeling about the encounter but the two young people assured him they would be fine.

Ok, atheist suggested his serial rapist did not resemble the indentikit of the ketch owner, so it seems your best suspect is the ketch owner. I clearly remember Pope mapped out the boats, and eliminated the presence of a ketch.
Were there reliable witnesses to the presence of a ketch? And how could Pope get it so wrong?

 

[The Atheist]

You are introducing a plausible suspect, which advances the case, but there must be a way for this suspect to disappear two live people in a short space of time, without the ketch owner being aware of anything, a man who was their host.
This doesn't fly without a narrative.
The argument that keeps all consistent is for Guy Wallace to lie like a flat fish. Drug deal complications have been cited, can you refute those rumours?

Given that we know exactly nothing after the time they were dropped at the ketch, the chances of someone else being involved are fairly good, especially since the ketch was never seen again.

I don't buy the difficulty in disposing of the bodies. I don't know anything about Wallace or rumours of drugs, but the guy currently in jail was found guilty of stupefying girls and women with drugs before he raped them in some of his convictions.

 

[smartcooky]

Given that we know exactly nothing after the time they were dropped at the ketch, the chances of someone else being involved are fairly good, especially since the ketch was never seen again.

I don't buy the difficulty in disposing of the bodies. I don't know anything about Wallace or rumours of drugs, but the guy currently in jail was found guilty of stupefying girls and women with drugs before he raped them in some of his convictions.

Your suspect is AS, yes? If so, he would have been 49 at the time Ben and Olivia disappeared. IIRC, he often tried to make himself look younger than he really was.

 

[Metullus]

1. Guy Wallace dropped the three at the ketch, one of whom was the owner.

All that we know is that one of the three people that Wallace dropped off at the ketch claimed to be the owner. We do not know if that person was, in fact, the owner, or even if he was in any way actually connected to the ketch.

2. They separated from the owner and ended on a fizz boat rafted to the ketch with their killer, and an engine was started with no one on the ketch noticing (the police would have found a witness to this surely), and were dumped.

Given that no one has identified the ketch we have no idea if anyone noticed an engine starting; in fact we do not even know if there was anyone on board to hear an engine start.

 

[smartcooky]

Ok, atheist suggested his serial rapist did not resemble the indentikit of the ketch owner, so it seems your best suspect is the ketch owner. I clearly remember Pope mapped out the boats, and eliminated the presence of a ketch.
Were there reliable witnesses to the presence of a ketch?

Yes. Dozens of witnesses said they saw the mystery ketch, and their descriptions of it are so strikingly similar that they must surely all have been seeing the same yacht.

Then there is this...

"Ketch seen leaving sounds: The media reports a charter boat operator who had seen the ketch leaving Queen Charlotte Sound on 2 January with people on board who could have been Ms Hope, Mr Smart and the mystery man. The Sunday Star Times quotes the operator, one Ted Walsh as saying, as he anchored off Cannibal Cove that day (2 January), he saw the ketch pass by, heading for the open sea. It was under motor with no sails. “What was distinctive was a young, blond-headed girl sitting in the cockpit at the back of the boat. A guy with very short hair was sitting beside her, very close,” he said. At the time of the sighting, Mr Walsh did not know the pair was missing. He said the two sitting so close together seemed strange and they did not return the waves from him and his passengers, which was ‘uncharacteristic of boaties.’ He say, however, there was no way he could say the pair was the missing couple.

http://www.crime.co.nz/c-files.aspx?ID=219

and this...

But almost 10 years later David and Rachel Arlidge say in 1998 a boat berthed beside them at an Auckland marina – a couple of months after the pair's disappearance – which matched the description of the mystery ketch it was reported today.

The couple said the ketch's skipper also told them he had been at Furneaux Lodge in Marlborough Sounds on New Year's Eve.

The Arlidges did not call police at the time as they thought the case had been dealt with. Years later they watched a documentary about the Sounds murders and an artist's impression of the mystery ketch jogged their memory.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/126059/New-doubt-over-Sounds-murder-conviction

And how could Pope get it so wrong?

Tunnel vision and confirmation bias

We have seen a number of cases in NZ where the Police have focused early on a subject; decided that their prime suspect is guilty, then ignored or attempted to discredit (and in at least one case I know of, actively suppressed) exculpatory evidence.

 

[The Atheist]

Your suspect is AS, yes? If so, he would have been 49 at the time Ben and Olivia disappeared. IIRC, he often tried to make himself look younger than he really was.

All the time - hair transplants, youthful clothes... you name it, he has a real fetish for it, right down to the Rod Stewart wig at his sentencing.

I can guarantee he wasn't driving a ketch, though.

 

[smartcooky]

All the time - hair transplants, youthful clothes... you name it, he has a real fetish for it, right down to the Rod Stewart wig at his sentencing.

And AS was definitely at Furneaux Lodge on the night Ben and Olivia disappeared?

I can guarantee he wasn't driving a ketch, though.

Could he have been a guest on it though; the bloke Guy Wallace saw and heard speaking the Ben and Olivia when he dropped them off on. Could he also have been the scruffy looking individual at the bar?

 

[The Atheist]

And AS was definitely at Furneaux Lodge on the night Ben and Olivia disappeared?

100%

Could he have been a guest on it though; the bloke Guy Wallace saw and heard speaking the Ben and Olivia when he dropped them off on. Could he also have been the scruffy looking individual at the bar?

Unlikely to have been scruffy, although possible.

 

[Samson]

There is prodigious and plausible detail in this lengthy treatise to suggest Watson is one of the reasonably short list of clearly innocent New Zealanders accused of heinous crimes.

http://trudyandtom.tripod.com/summary/summary.htm

This case should have cruised through to the privy council.

And another link.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/126059/New-doubt-over-Sounds-murder-conviction

And in fairness, for balance

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/scott-watson-evil-enough-kill-again-says-detective-5967939

exerpt

A mystery ketch identified by a key witness early in the investigation was located and inquiries found it was not in Endeavour Inlet when Hope and Smart disappeared, he said.

"There's nothing new that's come up since the presentation of that case - not a jolly sausage."

Watson was sexually motivated, Rae said. He lured the tired young couple on to his yacht with the offer of a berth for the night. When they were asleep he cast off and quietly motored away. Police never found a 15kg winch and a length of chain missing from Watson's boat. The pair's bodies were likely dumped overboard in a sleeping bag in Cook Strait, Rae said.

 

[smartcooky]

And in fairness, for balance

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/scott-watson-evil-enough-kill-again-says-detective-5967939

exerpt

A mystery ketch identified by a key witness early in the investigation was located and inquiries found it was not in Endeavour Inlet when Hope and Smart disappeared

This flies in the face of

1. the evidence given by Guy Wallace, the very experienced water taxi driver who swears to this day that he dropped Ben and Olivia off on a 40 ft well maintained ketch, not a crappy 26ft homebuilt sloop. In also ignored the evidence of others who were in the water taxi who also described the ketch. These include Hayden Morressey and Sarah Dyer, and another water-taxi driver Ted Walsh.

2. The evidence given by dozens of people who maintain they saw a ketch matching Guy Wallace's description at Endeavour inlet on the day of Ben and Olivia's disappearance.

3. The evidence of Steven McClellan, an experienced boatie and Sounds resident, who saw the ketch on January 6, 1998 - five days after Smart and Hope were last seen - motoring out of Nydia Bay, not far from Furneaux Lodge. A man was stood near the stern of the ketch with his back turned to McClellan. He was of wiry build, and had shiny shoulder-length black hair - a similar description to the mystery man given by witnesses. A young woman stared at McClellan through a porthole window. Her hair was tied back and she wore glasses. McClellan said "in every photograph I had seen of Olivia Hope, she was dressed up like she was ready to go to town,"... but then a few months later I saw home video footage of Hope, aired on television, playing the piano ... "As soon as I saw her with hair tied back, no makeup or glasses, it just clicked. I knew it was her."

 

[Samson]

This flies in the face of

1. the evidence given by Guy Wallace, the very experienced water taxi driver who swears to this day that he dropped Ben and Olivia off on a 40 ft well maintained ketch, not a crappy 26ft homebuilt sloop. In also ignored the evidence of others who were in the water taxi who also described the ketch. These include Hayden Morressey and Sarah Dyer, and another water-taxi driver Ted Walsh.

2. The evidence given by dozens of people who maintain they saw a ketch matching Guy Wallace's description at Endeavour inlet on the day of Ben and Olivia's disappearance.

3. The evidence of Steven McClellan, an experienced boatie and Sounds resident, who saw the ketch on January 6, 1998 - five days after Smart and Hope were last seen - motoring out of Nydia Bay, not far from Furneaux Lodge. A man was stood near the stern of the ketch with his back turned to McClellan. He was of wiry build, and had shiny shoulder-length black hair - a similar description to the mystery man given by witnesses. A young woman stared at McClellan through a porthole window. Her hair was tied back and she wore glasses. McClellan said "in every photograph I had seen of Olivia Hope, she was dressed up like she was ready to go to town,"... but then a few months later I saw home video footage of Hope, aired on television, playing the piano ... "As soon as I saw her with hair tied back, no makeup or glasses, it just clicked. I knew it was her."

Not sure about 3. This sounds like the swedish couple in the clearing saying nothing, and Nydia Bay is in Pelorus Sound.
But the rest is pretty challenging evidence. I never understood the case, but just assumed the cops got it right. No more though.

I just found this opinion piece by Brian Edwards where he discusses Watson and Lundy.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/reflec...dy-should-now-be-allowed-rest-peace-ck-136116

By chance I did read Bungay on murder many years ago, co-authored by Edwards

 

[smartcooky]

Not sure about 3. This sounds like the swedish couple in the clearing saying nothing, and Nydia Bay is in Pelorus Sound.
But the rest is pretty challenging evidence. I never understood the case, but just assumed the cops got it right. No more though.

Well its not that far Samson.

We stayed at a bach in Nikau Bay for Christmas a few years ago, that is also in Pelorus Sound, not far from Nydia Bay, and went to Furnaeux Lodge for New years Eve. We left early on the morning of the 31st on a friend's motor yacht and were at Endeavour Inlet and Furneaux Lodge by mid afternoon. This sighting was five days later, plenty of time.

 

[Samson]

Well its not that far Samson.

We stayed at a bach in Nikau Bay for Christmas a few years ago, that is also in Pelorus Sound, not far from Nydia Bay, and went to Furnaeux Lodge for New years Eve. We left early on the morning of the 31st on a friend's motor yacht and were at Endeavour Inlet and Furneaux Lodge by mid afternoon. This sighting was five days later, plenty of time.

Plenty of time alright, but I don't buy it. It sounds like the same ketch and owner, but not Olivia Hope unless she was locked up as a sex slave and Ben was long gone. Is that the theory?

 

[smartcooky]

Plenty of time alright, but I don't buy it. It sounds like the same ketch and owner, but not Olivia Hope unless she was locked up as a sex slave and Ben was long gone. Is that the theory?

No reason why it couldn't have been. This would be a valid theory of the crime. Olivia Hope was/is a very attractive young woman, and white slavery is not exactly uncommon...

Perhaps I reading too much into this exchange...

"Wallace said the man that offered Ben and Olivia a bed for the night on his ketch had not shaved or combed his hair. He said that the man seemed only interested in offering Olivia a berth for the night and not her companion, saying the man gestured towards Olivia saying “you can come”, and then gesturing towards her companion, saying “but you can’t”.

 

[Samson]

No reason why it couldn't have been. This would be a valid theory of the crime. Olivia Hope was/is a very attractive young woman, and white slavery is not exactly uncommon...

Perhaps I reading too much into this exchange...

"Wallace said the man that offered Ben and Olivia a bed for the night on his ketch had not shaved or combed his hair. He said that the man seemed only interested in offering Olivia a berth for the night and not her companion, saying the man gestured towards Olivia saying “you can come”, and then gesturing towards her companion, saying “but you can’t”.

It sure has internal consistency, but hell it's way out there as a theory. However, something happened. Seargent Rae mentioned a 15kg winch and chain missing from Watson's boat. Do you know anything about that. 15kg might do it if temporarily, but hopeless in the medium term.

 

[smartcooky]

It sure has internal consistency, but hell it's way out there as a theory. However, something happened. Seargent Rae mentioned a 15kg winch and chain missing from Watson's boat. Do you know anything about that. 15kg might do it if temporarily, but hopeless in the medium term.

That would depend how much chain was also missing "a length of chain" could be bloody heavy. But hell, if I was accused of murder hand was asked to account for every missing tool or piece of equipment I had ever owned, I would be in serious trouble.

 

[Samson]

That would depend how much chain was also missing "a length of chain" could be bloody heavy. But hell, if I was accused of murder hand was asked to account for every missing tool or piece of equipment I had ever owned, I would be in serious trouble.

But I never heard of it before. It is almost as though the anchor winch was missing. Surely not. What unattached 15kg winch is regarded as inventory on a sloop. Rae is covering his backside somehow, but of course we were not in court to hear 10,000 pages of testimony.

 

[PhantomWolf]

I have to admit that a lot of this case has perturbed me from the beginning.

I think that Watson's defence thought that they had shown enough doubt on the evidence given by the prosecution that they didn't have to do anything when it came to the defence's turn, and I think that cost them dearly.

We also know that well after Ben and Olivia headed out to the Mystery Ketch, that a second water taxi driver took a man matching Watson's description very closely to a sloop that was moored with other boats and hade the name of a weapon (Watson's boat was the Blade.)

People on the boat Watson arrived at reported him getting on board, asking if they wanted to party and then when they didn't answer, heading to his own boat. Yet they didn't hear anyone else with him.

Watson's boat was completely different to the one Ben and Olivia was supposed to have boards (Different number of masts, colour, size, shape, and portholes.)

Speed testing showed that Watson's boat could not have made the Journey from the claimed sighting in Cook Strait to home in the time required, even in the best circumstances.

The boat sighted in Cook Strait had an aluminium dinghy, Watson's had a wooden one.

The whole hair thing has been a bugbear too. The claim that the 'only' way they could have gotten there was by Olivia being on the boat is garbage. Hair is, for want of a better word, grabby. Olivia should have easily sat in a chair, deposited the hair on the chair, later to be sat on by Watson who had the hair transfer to him, and then via him deposit on his boat. This isn't far fetch, in fact I have had it happen to me, where a friend's hair ended up in my bed though she'd never at that point even visited my home.

Further more, the nail marks on the hatch, which were claimed to have been Olivia's (without more evidence than just a claim), had an innocent explanation, and while the prosecution's version of how they were make required long nails, Olivia played the piano and routinely kept her nails short.

This is one case that really does need another look, and I have thought so since before the conviction. Don't get me wrong, I think that Watson is a thoroughly unlikable person and probably would have ended up in Jail anyway for something else, but I don't believe he killed Ben and Olivia.