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i work in manufacturing, which is pretty heavily automated.
in manufacturing, when you're talking about robots you're talking about the classic arms with articulating joints, but it includes others. basically anything that can move in a 3d space on multiple axii would be considered robot. automation is much more general and would probably apply more to what you're getting at.
definitely eliminated some jobs over the last 15 years, more than it created. the jobs it created are more difficult and technical due to the increased complexity and broad skill set needed to work on them, but higher paying.
That's what I do, service the robots for Automated Material Systems in a manufacturing environment. Like much of the examples given by theprestige this entire factory was designed and constructed (20 odd years ago) specifically for this type and level of automation.
If you stretch the meaning of 'robots' slightly, my house has quiet a few.
Powered/automated roller shutters on the windows.
Automatic washing machine.
Automatic dish washer.
Stretch it a bit further and all the vacuum cleaners may count (not just the robot one).
Remember, once upon a time, people used to beat clothes on the rocks by the river, dishes had to be washed by hand, and carpets had to be taken outside, hung up, and beaten to clean them.
All of those things have taken away work from someone...
Remember, once upon a time, people used to beat clothes on the rocks by the river, dishes had to be washed by hand, and carpets had to be taken outside, hung up, and beaten to clean them.
All of those things have taken away work from someone...
No doubt, somebody will come along and say that AI will create more jobs than it displaces because that's what happened 100 years ago when automobiles displaced horses.
Well, here's some people who lost their jobs because of ChatGPT. Specifically because of USING ChatGPT:
The things some people don't seem to understand is that these things are CHAT bots, not real general purpose AI. It's only supposed to produce text in the STYLE of whatever it's been trained on. E.g., in that case on legal documents.
It's a far more sophisticated statistics program than my own Mark V Shaney implementation, and trained on far more text, but it's still just fitting statistically chosen random words into a plausible sentence structure. Like, if it's trained on legal document, it will (eventually) notice the X vs Y structure, and just invent a Pat Fenis vs the state of Nirvana to fill it in as a precedent.
What I'm saying is that it won't actually work as a lawyer any time soon, and much less as a CEO. Anyone betting their company on it actually being a general purpose AI, might well find out what... well... let's say, quoth Baofu from Persona II EP, "they call this the logical results."
Do you have an example of a company that does this, that we could touch on?
For all we know, you're talking about companies charging for their services, which is a normal thing, or charging a fee to maintain the systems that are providing these services, which is also a normal thing.
not AI, but similar. I used to work in Real Estate Appraisals. When I started, and as late as 2002, we were using 1 hour photo, and gluing those to hard copy reports, had plat maps faxed over by title companies, photocopied map pages and used stickers to denote Subject and Comparables, etc. We charged $350. When we went all digital, it saved a lot of time and money. We then charged...$350
not AI, but similar. I used to work in Real Estate Appraisals. When I started, and as late as 2002, we were using 1 hour photo, and gluing those to hard copy reports, had plat maps faxed over by title companies, photocopied map pages and used stickers to denote Subject and Comparables, etc. We charged $350. When we went all digital, it saved a lot of time and money. We then charged...$350
And rightly so. You knew you have plenty of customers at that price. There was apparently no pressure from competitors to lower your prices. Why would you lower your prices? To be nice? Were your customers offering to pay more, just to be nice?
Here in Japan some restaurants now have robot servers. I've been to the one myself and been served by a robot (It's a chain restaurant so probably a different location). However, I don't think it has replaced the staff. The robot will carry food to the table but people still bus the table. The robot can't do that part. It has no hands for one thing. It's basically a stack of shelves that moves autonomously. They put a screen on the front with a smiley face to make it look friendly.
As an actual programmer, who's followed this crap for a while, I'd actually bet my ass that it won't any time soon. Because, literally, these are just chatbots fitting statistically-weighted words into a sentence structure, which they learned, as well as those weightings, by being trained on millions of texts.
(Well, plus other applications which basically boil down to: build a matrix of Bayesian probabilities to fiddle with the parameters of a function someone else came up with.)
Maybe one day we'll have a general purpose AI. I hope, anyway. And maybe one day the singularity will come. And maybe one day the world serpent Jörmungandr will poison the atmosphere, before being defeated by Thor, while Fenrir eats the world with his jaws open all the way to the sky. But neither day is now
Here in Japan some restaurants now have robot servers. I've been to the one myself and been served by a robot (It's a chain restaurant so probably a different location). However, I don't think it has replaced the staff. The robot will carry food to the table but people still bus the table. The robot can't do that part. It has no hands for one thing. It's basically a stack of shelves that moves autonomously. They put a screen on the front with a smiley face to make it look friendly.
We've had robots that deliver food for some years now, mostly around campus (Oregon State University), but also in a tiny town next door for some reason. they're pretty impressive in their ability to navigate traffic.
I think they're not more common in other towns, 'cause they'd probably get vandalized and beaten up. My town is pretty safe.
Well, here's some people who lost their jobs because of ChatGPT. Specifically because of USING ChatGPT:
The things some people don't seem to understand is that these things are CHAT bots, not real general purpose AI. It's only supposed to produce text in the STYLE of whatever it's been trained on. E.g., in that case on legal documents.
It's a far more sophisticated statistics program than my own Mark V Shaney implementation, and trained on far more text, but it's still just fitting statistically chosen random words into a plausible sentence structure. Like, if it's trained on legal document, it will (eventually) notice the X vs Y structure, and just invent a Pat Fenis vs the state of Nirvana to fill it in as a precedent.
What I'm saying is that it won't actually work as a lawyer any time soon, and much less as a CEO. Anyone betting their company on it actually being a general purpose AI, might well find out what... well... let's say, quoth Baofu from Persona II EP, "they call this the logical results."
I don't know what to expect "any time soon", given that even experts in the field have been surprised by the rate of recent progress. Its entirely possible that the current progress will hit a ceiling and slow down, though it's also possible that it will continue for a while. Regardless, the current version seems to be increasing productivity:
We examined the productivity effects of a generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the assistive chatbot ChatGPT, in the context of midlevel professional writing tasks. In a preregistered online experiment, we assigned occupation-specific, incentivized writing tasks to 453 college-educated professionals and randomly exposed half of them to ChatGPT. Our results show that ChatGPT substantially raised productivity: The average time taken decreased by 40% and output quality rose by 18%. Inequality between workers decreased, and concern and excitement about AI temporarily rose. Workers exposed to ChatGPT during the experiment were 2 times as likely to report using it in their real job 2 weeks after the experiment and 1.6 times as likely 2 months after the experiment.
Generative AI tools hold promise to increase human productivity. This paper presents results from a controlled experiment with GitHub Copilot, an AI pair programmer. Recruited software developers were asked to implement an HTTP server in JavaScript as quickly as possible. The treatment group, with access to the AI pair programmer, completed the task 55.8% faster than the control group. Observed heterogenous effects show promise for AI pair programmers to help people transition into software development careers.
As an actual programmer, who's followed this crap for a while, I'd actually bet my ass that it won't any time soon. Because, literally, these are just chatbots fitting statistically-weighted words into a sentence structure, which they learned, as well as those weightings, by being trained on millions of texts.
Do you have an example of a company that does this, that we could touch on?
For all we know, you're talking about companies charging for their services, which is a normal thing, or charging a fee to maintain the systems that are providing these services, which is also a normal thing.
here's an article about junk fees and why people don't like them and why they are a problem. charging for a service you're not providing is what i'd consider to land under bogus fees. convenience fees and processing fees are great examples, but really anytime a company charges for a service they aren't providing is dishonest. having to charge for something they did is ok, no having to do it anymore but still charging for it is a lie.
i know you framed it as why would they be nice, but that was actually a really good and pretty straightforward example. they charge $350 for a service that was a lot of labor to cover an expense, it became not a lot of labor due to technology advancement, but the price stayed the same. no lying and ripping people off isn't being nice, it's dishonest.
Basically that I'm not seeing any work published on anything even remotely resembling a general purpose AI, really. Maybe it will happen. But it will take years at best to even be trained to that purpose, even if someone came up with better algorithms today that enable that.
Literally everything done today is just using millions of cycles to tweak matrixes of probabilities to feed into someone else's functions. Yeah, it's using neural networks. Still the same deal. It won't go from being a chat bot to inventing the warp drive in a flash of inspiration, because it literally can't. It can only tweak the probability matrices it was programmed to.
Will a breakthrough happen eventually? I have nothing to base that hope at the moment, but I like to hope so. Oh elder gods, I wish. But I have this defect: I can distinguish between wishful thinking and reality
I'm not gonna think that because a glorified backtracking algorithm (something I can't even call "AI" with a straight face, as it's the dumbest and most primitive brute-force kind of approach) managed to find a way out of a maze in just a billion iterations, it means it can replace a CEO, or really do anything else than find a way out of a maze. It's the kind you can impress laymen by showing them that like three little people icons learned to open the way for each other in a maze, but really, not only they can't do anything else, and will be back to ground zero even on a different maze, but it's not even the most efficient way to solve pathing. By far.
Will we get better at it some day? I sure hope so. But that day isn't today.
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