Premonition?

[Cuddles]

Not every detail of Booth's dream matched the facts -- for instance,

So, lets go over the facts here.

1) Lots of people dream about plane crashes.
2) Lots of people are concerned enough about these dreams that they actually call the authorities.
3) Some of these are bound to be similar to actual accidents.
4) Booth's dream did not give a date, time or location.
5) The details that were present in the dream were not all accurate.
6) Booth's dream was in no way impressive and was not even close enough to the actual event to ever be imagined as a prediction, except by readers of Playboy magazine.

Shall we go over the actual details of the dream vs. the crash?

Date:
Dream - not given. Reality - 25/05/79. Score - 0.
Time:
Dream - not given. Reality - 1504. Score - 0.
Location:
Dream - not given. Reality - Chicago. Score - 0.
Plane:
Dream - no make given. Reality - DC-10. Score - 0.
Dream - American Airlines. Reality - AA. Score - 1.
Cause:
Dream - loss of power. Reality - detatching of one engine. Score - 0.
Events:
Dream - banked right. Reality - banked left. Score - 0.
Dream - crashed straight into field. Reality - hit hanger before crashing. Score - 0.
Consequences:
Dream - not given. Reality - death of all on board and some collateral deaths and injurues. Score - 0.

And what are we left with? A dream that predicts absolutely none of the important details. Booth predicted that at some unspecified time and place in the future, an American Airlines owned plane would crash. That is all. Unsurprisingly he was correct about that. But he was wrong in every single other important detail. Surely no-one can actually take this seriously as an example of prediction?

 

[Rodney]

So, lets go over the facts here.

Sounds like a cue for the Truth Squad to set the record straight.

1) Lots of people dream about plane crashes.

Any statistics you care to cite? I'd be particularly interested in hearing statistics on people who have the same dream about a plane crash 10 days in a row -- and on the 11th day, a plane crashes in a similar fashion.

2) Lots of people are concerned enough about these dreams that they actually call the authorities.

Any statistics you care to cite? The fact that the public-affairs officer for the FAA office in Atlanta contended that "People call in with them all the time" counts as one person's opinion -- and not necessarily an objective one.

3) Some of these are bound to be similar to actual accidents.

Again, it's unclear how many are called in. And if Booth's experience with American Airlines is typical, many people who summon the will to call an airline likely pursue it no further when the airline refuses to listen. But let's assume that some people do get through and say something like: "I think a plane is going to crash sometime in the near future." No comparison to Booth's story.

4) Booth's dream did not give a date, time or location.

No, Booth didn't say "May 25, 3:04 P.M., O'Hare" but why do you suppose he called American Airlines on May 22 and -- when they didn't want to listen -- called the FAA that same day? And did you miss the part about the "one-story building" and "field"?

5) The details that were present in the dream were not all accurate.

Not all -- just most: "one-story building", "field", "American Airlines jet, a great big thing", "wasn't making the noise it should", "[one] wing goes up in the air", "It was just going slow", "turned on its back", "went straight down into the ground and exploded." Yes, he did have the left wing going up and not the right, but that's a minor detail. Note especially that, contrary to Dan O., Booth didn't say that the plane was "silent" -- only that it "wasn't making the noise it should" -- consistent with a plane that was flying with two engines and not three.

6) Booth's dream was in no way impressive and was not even close enough to the actual event to ever be imagined as a prediction, except by readers of Playboy magazine.

If you know a few people who don't participate here, see if they agree.

Shall we go over the actual details of the dream vs. the crash?

Let's.

Date:
Dream - not given. Reality - 25/05/79. Score - 0.

Except for the fact that he had 10 straight nights of dreams prior to the plane crashing on the 11th day. Score - 0.8

Time:
Dream - not given. Reality - 1504. Score - 0.

Of very little relevance. Score - 0; Relevance - little more than zero.

Location: Dream - not given. Reality - Chicago. Score - 0.

Except that he mentioned a one-story building and field. Not enough to identify O'Hare, but hardly nothing. Score - 0.25

Plane:
Dream - no make given. Reality - DC-10. Score - 0.

"jet, a great big thing." I'm not sure if American was flying a bigger plane than the DC-10 in 1979. In any event, a DC-10 fits Booth's description perfectly. Score - 0.9

Dream - American Airlines. Reality - AA. Score - 1.

Thanks for conceding that.

Cause:
Dream - loss of power. Reality - detatching of one engine. Score - 0.

Booth never said "loss of power" -- only that it "wasn't making the noise it should." Score - 0.5

Events:
Dream - banked right. Reality - banked left. Score - 0.

How many planes crash because a wing goes into the air, causing the plane to drastically bank? Score - 0.9

Dream - crashed straight into field. Reality - hit hanger before crashing. Score - 0.

Wikipedia states: " . . . the pilots slowed the aircraft the left wing stalled, and with the right wing still providing lift the aircraft quickly entered an uncontrollable 112-degree left bank and pitched nose-down from around 325 feet, slamming into an open field approximately 4,600 ft from the end of the runway northwest of the airport at 15:04 CDT after about 31 seconds in the air. The plane struck an abandoned hangar, but the site was mostly an empty field north of Touhy Ave and just east of a mobile home park." So, it appear that the hangar may have been only grazed. Score - 0.8

Consequences:
Dream - not given. Reality - death of all on board and some collateral deaths and injurues. Score - 0.

I suppose you could also give him a 0 for not reciting the victims' names. Score - 0; Relevance - less than zero

And what are we left with? A dream that predicts absolutely none of the important details. Booth predicted that at some unspecified time and place in the future, an American Airlines owned plane would crash. That is all. Unsurprisingly he was correct about that. But he was wrong in every single other important detail. Surely no-one can actually take this seriously as an example of prediction?

Nah. I'm sure that Randi himself often has 10 straight nights of dreams and then a plane crashes on the 11th day. And he gets a boatload of other details correct, also.

 

[Dan O.]

Everything recorded after the fact may have been commingled with the actual event. Only the written records made before the event would be authoritative. The only prior written record we know of for this case is the FAA records of Booth's phone call. The Playboy article claims to have verified this report, did they print a copy of the report in the article? Did anybody save a copy of this smoking proof of a paranormal event?! I suspect the case was investigated at the time and found to be lacking credibility in more serious circles than Playboy and the talk show circuits.

Now after all the critical evidence is gone you want to bring it up and call it irrefutable proof of paranormal powers. I think you need to find a copy or at least a quote of the FAA documentation. There was supposedly an article written in the New York Times. They would be the most likely ones to have printed this evidence.

 

[fls]

The method of scoring needs to reflect the kind of statement made. As Rodney demonstrates, we will judge the accuracy of the statement by seeing whether or not we can make it fit after we already know what it is that we are trying to fit.

So in order to judge the fit, we need to estimate all the different ways the event could have happened that would also have been accepted as a "hit". For example, there is probably only one way in which the statement "American Airlines" would be accepted as a hit (although an airline with the initials AA or the word "American" in the name may also have been counted as a partial hit). On the other hand "jet, a great big thing" would probably have been accepted as a hit for any kind of jet (as "a great big thing" is relative), so there are probably at least 10 different ways that would have been treated as a hit, so getting it right only scores 1/10.

The other details have similar problems. For example, many accidents take place related to take-offs and landings and many airports are surrounded by fields, plus much of the continental US is open land, so there are many ways in which a crash can be associated with a field. So a "hit" on that gives you a tiny score.

That the dreams were repeated isn't particularly remarkable (just uncommon). It's not like things that obsess us in real life don't invade our dreams. It's not surprising that he kept having obsessive dreams until something interrupted the cycle (in this case, an actual airplane crash).

Linda

 

[Rodney]

I think you need to find a copy or at least a quote of the FAA documentation. There was supposedly an article written in the New York Times. They would be the most likely ones to have printed this evidence.

Where did you hear that? I just checked and couldn't find anything about David Booth's dream in the NY Times archives.

 

[Rodney]

The method of scoring needs to reflect the kind of statement made. As Rodney demonstrates, we will judge the accuracy of the statement by seeing whether or not we can make it fit after we already know what it is that we are trying to fit.

So in order to judge the fit, we need to estimate all the different ways the event could have happened that would also have been accepted as a "hit". For example, there is probably only one way in which the statement "American Airlines" would be accepted as a hit (although an airline with the initials AA or the word "American" in the name may also have been counted as a partial hit). On the other hand "jet, a great big thing" would probably have been accepted as a hit for any kind of jet (as "a great big thing" is relative), so there are probably at least 10 different ways that would have been treated as a hit, so getting it right only scores 1/10.

The other details have similar problems. For example, many accidents take place related to take-offs and landings and many airports are surrounded by fields, plus much of the continental US is open land, so there are many ways in which a crash can be associated with a field. So a "hit" on that gives you a tiny score.

That the dreams were repeated isn't particularly remarkable (just uncommon). It's not like things that obsess us in real life don't invade our dreams. It's not surprising that he kept having obsessive dreams until something interrupted the cycle (in this case, an actual airplane crash).

Linda

You make some valid points; however, I have to disagree that Booth's dream being repeated for 10 straight days immediately prior to the crash is not remarkable. I've been recording my dreams for more than 15 years and have never had a repeat. And why would Booth obsess on a plane crash? He worked for a rental car company, and so I would think he would be much more likely to obsess about an automobile accident.

 

[Dan O.]

Where did you hear that? I just checked and couldn't find anything about David Booth's dream in the NY Times archives.

I haven't found the article either and this reference may be bogus..
David Booth, the rest of the story

The conclusions I’ve reached based upon my research clearly show that David Booth’s first prediction not only preceded the event happening but was in fact verified by the Federal Aviation Administration to, among others, The Cincinnati Enquirer, New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Omni Magazine, 20/20 News Program, BBC, In Search Of , That’s Incredible, Arthur Clarke’s Mysterious World and Playboy Magazine, all of which did feature and prominent stories about David Booth spanning the years between 1979-1985.

 

[Oualawouzou]

You make some valid points; however, I have to disagree that Booth's dream being repeated for 10 straight days immediately prior to the crash is not remarkable. I've been recording my dreams for more than 15 years and have never had a repeat. And why would Booth obsess on a plane crash? He worked for a rental car company, and so I would think he would be much more likely to obsess about an automobile accident.

Italics mine.

Why do you keep judging the likelihood (sp?) of something being true based on your unique experience? "It can't be true because it has never happened to me", "it must be unusual because it has never happened to me"... What kind of arguments are those?

Heck, I spent a whole summer during high school dreaming I arrived late at a math exam and fled the scene in panic. That was one depressing September, I felt like I had never spent a few days without being at school throughout summer... To this day, I don't know what prompted this recurring dream and why I had it at least 3 times a week all throughout summer. But you can be sure I'd be singing the praises of premonition had I arrived late at a math exam at any point during the following school year!

 

[Dan O.]

I've found that recurrent dreams typically have to do with unresolved anxiety issues that need to be worked out. The dreams are trying randomly to find an escape from this situation once it occurs. I've found that the best solution involves learning not to put yourself into that particular situation in the first place. For instance, learning to stay away from the edge of cliffs so you don't fall over or not wandering near large predators worked for me (at least in my dreams). The forgotten class or missed exam dream could be a recognition of a lack of scheduling skills. Simply setting up a day-planner and a clock/calender so you would always know when it was and where you needed to be may have solved that dream.
(now, don't you wish you would have asked at the beginning of that summer?)

 

[fls]

You make some valid points; however, I have to disagree that Booth's dream being repeated for 10 straight days immediately prior to the crash is not remarkable. I've been recording my dreams for more than 15 years and have never had a repeat.

Regardless of whether or not you actually experience it (an expected situation - not all people experience all variations in dream-associated phenomena), repeated dreams have been described and they are something that I experience.

And why would Booth obsess on a plane crash? He worked for a rental car company, and so I would think he would be much more likely to obsess about an automobile accident.

I expect Booth to think about more than just his job. Plane crashes don't seem to be an unusual thing to worry about. It's not like we aren't helped along by media attention.

Linda

 

[cresur]

Just felt appropriate to share an anecdote*

A couple years ago I was about to go on my first airplane trip. I didn't tell my parents because they get very anxious (and annoyingly clingy) when I leave town, and, on top of it, they are terrified of airplanes. So I found it better to tell them just when I was about to leave, like it was just a sudden opportunity. It was going to be a short trip anyway.

The night before the trip, I get a call from my mother (I don't live with them) asking if I was going on a trip soon. I found it weird because I was intentionally hiding it from them, but it was summer so it wasn't too weird since summer time is travel time. I said yes, as a matter fact the opportunity just came up for me to go on a trip and I'm leaving tomorrow morning. She asked me if I was going by airplane. I found this implausibly weirder because I had never taken a plane before, so I asked her why. She told me my sister had a dream about me last night. She dreamed that I was going on a trip to Sao Paulo (the city I was going to visit but hadn't told my mom yet) on an airplane, and it would crash.

Now, I'll admit I felt shivers down my spine. I was pretty scared of flying for the first time as well, and that wasn't a very reassuring farewell note. But I quickly tried to shrug it off and told her the truth. The reasoning being that IF something really happened - and that's a big if - it would be terrible to leave my parents in the dark, thinking everything was fine.

My family did everything but tying me to stop me from getting on the airplane, and all the while I was reassuring them that it had been nothing but a dream. But to them the whole thing was too overwhelming to have been a coincidence. There was literally no way for them, much less my little sister, to know about it in advance, since I don't live with them, I have my own private bank account and made a point of keeping the trip a secret.

Long story short, here I am today. First thing I told my mom when I got there was "see, I told you nothing was gonna happen". She lectured me for "jinxing" it, and that I still had to come back before I could say that. So I repeated the phone call when I got home a few days later.

As an aside, I'm not saying I wasn't terrified. I guess I was. But something I noticed about me that is different from most people inclined to woo is that, while they consciously, rationally "know" that it doesn't make sense, deep down in their guts they're thinking/feeling it might be real; or that it is real and they're just denying it. But with me it was the other way around. I had a lingering notion that the plane crashing was a real possibility, since accidents happen, and the only thing lacking for my sister's dream to be a complete coincidence was the crash. But deep down something inside of me was screaming BUT COME ON, IT WAS JUST A DREAM. And that was the only reason I managed to board that flight that day.

Now, if my sister had been right about that, today she'd be absolutely certain that she either had psychic powers, or that something supernatural but very real had happened to her. It was just too much to be explained as a coincidence. And it was certainly much more spot on than the account of Lincoln's dream that's being disputed on this thread for pages.

* true story

 

[Spektator]

(snip)
Long story short, here I am today. First thing I told my mom when I got there was "see, I told you nothing was gonna happen". She lectured me for "jinxing" it, and that I still had to come back before I could say that. So I repeated the phone call when I got home a few days later.
(snip)

Um, so she was upset with you for "jinixing" it so the plane didn't crash with you aboard? It sounds as if your family has, you know, some issues.

 

[cresur]

Um, so she was upset with you for "jinixing" it so the plane didn't crash with you aboard? It sounds as if your family has, you know, some issues.

Hm no, she was upset that I was jinxing my return. Is that not clear?

 

[Soapy Sam]

Nice commingling of a thought with an action. That is not critical analysis nor a good analogy.

I have been driving 35 years. Let's say 20K miles per year, so roughly 700,000miles. Let's say 71% driving in the city or 500,000 miles. I will be generous and say only two intersections per mile or a total of 1,000,000 intersections.

Number of clear intersections where the light was green that I have braked at without hearing a siren or seeing someone crossing against the light - one.

Congratulations on your superb memory and your surprising good luck.

 

[Rodney]

. . . Now, if my sister had been right about that, today she'd be absolutely certain that she either had psychic powers, or that something supernatural but very real had happened to her. It was just too much to be explained as a coincidence. And it was certainly much more spot on than the account of Lincoln's dream that's being disputed on this thread for pages.

As I mentioned in post #154 on this thread, Lincoln's dream was:

" . . .Before me [in the East Room of the White House] was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestments. Around it were stationed soldiers who were acting as guards; and there was a throng of people, gazing mournfully upon the corpse, whose face was covered, others weeping pitifully. 'Who is dead in the White House?' I demanded of one of the soldiers, 'The President,' was his answer; 'he was killed by an assassin.'"

So, Lincoln's dream of his assassination was quite specific. How specific was your sister's? Can you supply more details?

 

[cresur]

As I mentioned in post #154 on this thread, Lincoln's dream was:

" . . .Before me [in the East Room of the White House] was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestments. Around it were stationed soldiers who were acting as guards; and there was a throng of people, gazing mournfully upon the corpse, whose face was covered, others weeping pitifully. 'Who is dead in the White House?' I demanded of one of the soldiers, 'The President,' was his answer; 'he was killed by an assassin.'"

So, Lincoln's dream of his assassination was quite specific.

I'm sorry, but that reads pretty much like any funeral of a chief of state would be. I don't see any evidence of precognition because it was the funeral of the president and he happened to be the president. Not only it shows a very common motif of dreams ('I had a dream with you, but you weren't yourself'), but as many others have already pointed it out, that preoccupation was something to be perfectly expected from a man in his position.

How specific was your sister's? Can you supply more details?

The day before I boarded my first flight ever, to Sao Paulo, she dreamed she was watching TV when a special news report came up about an airplane that had crashed on the way to Sao Paulo. At that moment she 'knew' I was in the plane, and woke up feeling she had to let me know about it.

She had absolutely no idea or way of knowing that I was 1. going on a trip; 2. to Sao Paulo; 3. by airplane. She got 3 out of 4 right. That's more specific than any psychic on the media today, and also follows a very literal narrative, unlike the almost symbolic dream of Lincoln, where he was attending his funeral but that wasn't his funeral?...

 

[devnull]

3. There were no visual or auditory cues at the time I applied the brakes.

I dont believe you. There *were* cues, but they were subtle and/or you dont remember them.

 

[Rodney]

I'm sorry, but that reads pretty much like any funeral of a chief of state would be. I don't see any evidence of precognition because it was the funeral of the president and he happened to be the president. Not only it shows a very common motif of dreams ('I had a dream with you, but you weren't yourself'), but as many others have already pointed it out, that preoccupation was something to be perfectly expected from a man in his position.

You're ignoring the facts that: (1) Lincoln was assassinated -- he was the very first President of the United States to be assassinated; (2) Lincoln -- not someone else -- was the President at the time of his dream; and (3) Lincoln's body did lie in state in the East Room of the White House -- again, he was the first President of the United States to lie in state.

The day before I boarded my first flight ever, to Sao Paulo, she dreamed she was watching TV when a special news report came up about an airplane that had crashed on the way to Sao Paulo. At that moment she 'knew' I was in the plane, and woke up feeling she had to let me know about it.

She had absolutely no idea or way of knowing that I was 1. going on a trip; 2. to Sao Paulo; 3. by airplane. She got 3 out of 4 right. That's more specific than any psychic on the media today, and also follows a very literal narrative, unlike the almost symbolic dream of Lincoln, where he was attending his funeral but that wasn't his funeral?...

So the corpse Lincoln saw in his dream was that of the OTHER President of the United States? But I do think your sister's dream is interesting. Did she have a time frame for her dream coming true? Has she had other seemingly prophetic dreams?

 

[Aepervius]

You make some valid points; however, I have to disagree that Booth's dream being repeated for 10 straight days immediately prior to the crash is not remarkable. I've been recording my dreams for more than 15 years and have never had a repeat. And why would Booth obsess on a plane crash? He worked for a rental car company, and so I would think he would be much more likely to obsess about an automobile accident.

I have the same veerrry weird dream repeat during days sometimes, over a period of 30 years.
2 anecdotal story. Which one is more right ?

I regularly dream of plane crashing (most probably because I have a latent fear of flying and must fly very often). When there is a crash I don't suddenly jump to the conclusion that I predicted the future, even if I dreamt it more than one in a row.

 

[Rodney]

. . .The day before I boarded my first flight ever, to Sao Paulo, she dreamed she was watching TV when a special news report came up about an airplane that had crashed on the way to Sao Paulo . . .

I just found this at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAM_Brazilian_Airlines_Flight_3054 --

"TAM Airlines Flight 3054 (JJ 3054) was a scheduled domestic passenger flight between Porto Alegre and São Paulo, Brazil. The Airbus A320 aircraft used for the route, PR-MBK crashed upon landing during rain in São Paulo on July 17, 2007. PR-MBK overran the runway, crossed a major thoroughfare during rush hour, crashed at high speed into a TAM Express warehouse adjacent to a gas station and exploded. There were 187 people on board: 181 passengers, 19 of whom were TAM employees, and 6 crew members. All passengers and crew were killed in the crash, in addition to twelve people on the ground. As of 2007, Flight 3054 has the highest death toll of any aviation accident in Latin America and the highest death toll of any accident involving an Airbus A320 anywhere in the world."

When this accident occurred last year, did your sister find any of the details to be similar to her dream?