Obama causes earthquakes...

Nova Land said:
I'm not familiar with oglobo

"O Globo" is a newspaper here from Brazil, part of our biggest news network. Not the best source back in our millitary dictatorship times (as if there were any good sources back then) but its a bit better now. Still far from perfect as this (and some other) cases will show.

I'll put this as simple as I can- The individual in question is Chavez. The ammount of nonsense that can be found at his speeches and among his policies create in me a heavy bias. The nonsense I also heard from some of his fans contribute to increase the bias. The outcome? A moronic statement like that did not came as a surprise neither seemed misplaced. I seemed a natural progression on BS production.

Now, had he said something which made some sense, then it would be truly worthy of double and even triple checking. <- That was irony tinged with shades of how I actually perceive his actions.

Unskeptical from my part? So be it.

Nova Land said:
Your post about something being "a symptom of the certain individual's behavior" is hard for me to follow. But it sounds as if you are saying that, because Chavez has been characterized as making weird statements in the past, when people heard it being said that Chavez had talked about an earthquake weapon they were right to assume the story was genuine and that anyone who questioned the claim was an irrational Chavez supporter.
One doesn't need to be an irrational (or rational) Chavez supporter to question the claim. One does not even needs to be a supporter.

The last sentence of the material quoted above has no means of support and frankly I fail to see how such an interpretation can be derived from what I wrote. It seems I am not the only one around with interpretation bias.
 
I'll put this as simple as I can- The individual in question is Chavez. The ammount of nonsense that can be found at his speeches and among his policies create in me a heavy bias. The nonsense I also heard from some of his fans contribute to increase the bias. The outcome? A moronic statement like that did not came as a surprise neither seemed misplaced. I seemed a natural progression on BS production.

Now, had he said something which made some sense, then it would be truly worthy of double and even triple checking.


You express this well, and what you are describing is a very common way that people have of looking at things. The point I am trying to make is that this method is not skepticism.

Too many people seem to think of skeptical inquiry as some kind of unpleasant burden, which only the people who are wrong should be forced to bear. Therefore when they hear something they disagree with they want to set a very high standard of proof. Show us sources, show us quotes -- and even then, how do we know your sources aren't lying...? In contrast, when they hear things they agree with, they feel that kind of scrutiny is unnecessary. We all know it's true, why waste time checking the obvious...?

The problem is that such a method only works if you already know all the answers. If you don't, then you wind up not checking out things which were false (because you knew them to be true, so why bother) and you wind up setting such a high burden for things you disagree with that you refuse to accept something which is true long past when there's enough evidence that the truth should be clear.

Yes, skeptical inquiry (like scientific inquiry) is time-consuming. That's why many people who believe in things like dowsing don't bother to carry out double-blind tests to see if they actually can do what they think they can do. They already know they can do it, so why waste time? (And if you don't know it and want to see evidence, well, that's your problem...)

That's why science doesn't work that way -- and skepticism shouldn't, either. Science doesn't say, that sounds like a sensible claim, so there's no need to do actual testing, or to peer review studies and papers. The way one should test homeopathic medicines is the same way one should test conventional medicines. Either these methods work in determining what works and what doesn't, or they don't.

There isn't time in life to investigate every question which comes up. Therefore we all are going to pick and choose which things to research and which to set aside. If someone hears or reads the claim that Chavez has said an earthquake weapon caused the Haiti earthquake, and doesn't have the time or the interest to check it out for themself, that's fine.

But the basic principles for when to accept things as true and when to reject things as false should remain the same. And one basic principle is that one should not believe something is true just because it conforms with one's existing beliefs and one should not reject it as false just because it conflicts with one's existing beliefs. If one doesn't have the time or energy to check something out, set it aside as a mental question mark: this is something I've heard said, but haven't checked out.

One doesn't need to be an irrational (or rational) Chavez supporter to question the claim. One does not even needs to be a supporter.


Yes. We are very much in agreement there.

I am not a Chavez supporter. I know too little about him to be either a supporter or an opponent. But from the little I know, I would not have been terribly surprised if the earthquake machine allegation had turned out to be something he had actually said.

The reason I posted in this thread was that I thought the claim in the OP was an interesting one, which piqued my curiosity and made me interested in learning more -- and therefore I was disappointed to find a large disconnect between the post (saying that Chavez had said something) and the citation (which contained no quotes from Chavez).

Skepticism should not need to be hostile. It should not fall solely to supporters of Chavez to question claims which put him in a bad light, any more than it should fall solely to supporters of Bill Clinton to question the statements attributed to him, to supporters of Rush Limbaugh to question statements attributed him, etc.

It should be a basic skeptical reflex reaction that when a skeptic hears an interesting statement attributed to Person A but the only person quoted is Person B, the skeptic immediately asks, Can you show me where Person A actually said this?

It should also be basic skeptical behavior that, until a skeptic has actually heard or read Person A's actual words (at enough length and enough context that the skeptic feels comfortable they understand what Person A was saying), a skeptic should not pretend to know what Person A said or thought.

There are too many people out there who have never read Thomas Jefferson for themselves -- but will confidently tell others what Jefferson thought about God, about Christianity, and about separation of church and state because they have read what David Barton told them that Jefferson said. There are too many people out there who have never read James Randi's writings for themselves -- but will confidently tell others how Randi's million dollar challenge is a fraud and that Randi himself has admitted this, because they've heard various paranormalists tell them what Randi said. If we don't want other people doing that, we need to stop doing it ourselves.
 
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There are too many people out there who have never read Thomas Jefferson for themselves -- but will confidently tell others what Jefferson thought about God, about Christianity, and about separation of church and state because they have read what David Barton told them that Jefferson said. There are too many people out there who have never read James Randi's writings for themselves -- but will confidently tell others how Randi's million dollar challenge is a fraud and that Randi has said admitted this, because they've heard various paranormalists tell them what Randi said. If we don't want other people doing that, we need to stop doing it ourselves.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-to-the-chinese/story-e6frg90o-1225813468186

Do you believe that Hugo Chavez was correctly attributed in the above article, or not?

Why, or why not?

As to Hitchens not protesting strongly enough about Hewitt's absurd statement, intended as an attack on President Obama, well, I wonder at why Hitchens spent so much effort qualifying his closing point on this.

http://www.alan.com/2010/01/21/righ...aiti-to-invading-iraq-adding-iraq-more-legal/

HH: We’ve invaded Haiti. ... snip ... but don’t you find it odd that the left is all quiet as to this extraordinary exercise in presidential prerogative unguided by, unauthorized by simply unilateral on the part of the President?
CH: Yes, not seeking any international body, and as far as we know, though it’s very hard to be sure, no permission, not that I think their constitution would allow them permission, from a Haitian government, either.
HH: That’s right. I mean, we just took over.
CH: Yes.
HH: Now what do you think about that? I think it’s great, but I mean the left should have some problems with this.
CH: Well, if it’s unilateralism, it’s in a very, very high register, you’re quite right. But because there’s no oil there, there’s nothing anyone could possibly want, it must be assumed, per Contra, I suppose, that it’s altruistic, to that extent.
I wonder of Hitchens was caught off guard by Hewitt's assertion.

DR
 
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Google for Cristallex + Las Cristinas. With this in mind (as well as other cases such as the recent supermarket issue) as background/template/previous examples/etc., sounds pretty much like his modus operandi in my humble opinion.
 
Nova Land is correct regarding how a skeptic should act and form opinions. The problem is that (and he hints at it) once you have a certain ammount of (well researched, etc.) info, any new data which fits the predicted pattern will be preferentially accepted. Is there a risk of falling in to confirmation bias and/or just be plain wrong? Yes. But I would think twice before lecturing on skepticism someone who made such an error. My dataset might be too small (it actually is) to allow me any further conclusions and extrapolations (and at least one of them was shown wrong).

Moving on, its a common real-world problem. Ideally we should check everything, but how many datapoints one needs to check before establishing a pattern or before just ruling out a claim? Must I check every single new claim regarding say, the reality of the Universal Flood before saying its nonsense? Must I check again and again the boy who cry wolf?
 
Nova Land is correct regarding how a skeptic should act and form opinions. The problem is that (and he hints at it) once you have a certain ammount of (well researched, etc.) info, any new data which fits the predicted pattern will be preferentially accepted. Is there a risk of falling in to confirmation bias and/or just be plain wrong? Yes. But I would think twice before lecturing on skepticism someone who made such an error. My dataset might be too small (it actually is) to allow me any further conclusions and extrapolations (and at least one of them was shown wrong).

Moving on, its a common real-world problem. Ideally we should check everything, but how many datapoints one needs to check before establishing a pattern or before just ruling out a claim? Must I check every single new claim regarding say, the reality of the Universal Flood before saying its nonsense? Must I check again and again the boy who cry wolf?

Sherlock Holmes aid it best:

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

We can at least agree that the idea that the US would use some Sooper Sekrit weapon to cause the Haitan Quake is wack.
 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-to-the-chinese/story-e6frg90o-1225813468186

Do you believe that Hugo Chavez was correctly attributed in the above article, or not?

Why, or why not?


Obviously I am not expressing myself clearly. That happens a lot; I tend to write at a bit too much length, and points which seem clear to me get buried or confused. Let me try again.

There isn't time in life to investigate every question which comes up. Therefore we all are going to pick and choose which things to research and which to set aside.
If you'll notice, I did not choose to research the Chavez claim which was made in the OP. I found it intriguing, but not intriguing enough to work on when I'm already way behind on a lot of other things I should be doing. That's why I was glad that Lucky and Kuko 4000 did take the time to look into this.

I am not a Chavez supporter. I know too little about him to be either a supporter or an opponent...
When I read over this thread, I had no idea whether Chavez had made such a statement, very little idea as to whether it was likely or unlikely he had made such a statement, and no great interest or desire either to prove he had or that he hadn't. That is still the case.

What struck me as interesting about the thread, and worthy of comment, was that a number of people were posting as if Chavez had said something about earthquake machines but nothing had been provided in which he actually said anything on that subject.
Skepticism should not need to be hostile. It should not fall solely to supporters of Chavez to question claims which put him in a bad light
I hesitated to post in this thread about what appears to me to be an obvious breach of skeptical principles, because I thought it was quite possible that Chavez actually had said the comments attributed to him and people simply hadn't posted a good source for the comments yet. And that should not matter -- but at present, because skepticism is so poorly practiced in the Politics area of the forum, it does.

It is a violation of good skeptical principles to attribute statements to one person based solely on third-party statements of other people. It doesn't matter if the claim ultimately turns out to be true; it's bad practice whether the claim is true or false.
It should be a basic skeptical reflex reaction that when a skeptic hears an interesting statement attributed to Person A but the only person quoted is Person B, the skeptic immediately asks, Can you show me where Person A actually said this?
I am trying at the moment to refrain from posting in the serious sections of the forum. I'm too prone to careless errors at present and I'm having too much trouble writing simply and concisely. But when I read this thread, saw someone whom I very much respect (hs4) posting something which appeared to attribute words to Hugo Chavez which the cited sources did not justify, and saw numerous others in the thread making what appeared to be the same error, I felt obliged to point it out.

That's all I'm trying to do in this thread. I am not a Chavez supporter, have very little knowledge of him, and little interest at present in researching him, either to attack him or defend him.

The subject of interest to me is quite simple. A number of people in this thread have been posting comments about Hugo Chavez as if he had actually made statements about an earthquake weapon. Is there anything posted in the OP, or on the first page of the thread, which contains any such statements or reliable reports of such statements?

I hope you will think about that question.

Now, back to your question.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-to-the-chinese/story-e6frg90o-1225813468186

Do you believe that Hugo Chavez was correctly attributed in the above article, or not?

Why, or why not?


I hope what I wrote above clarifies why I'm not really interested in (or qualified for) taking active part in a discussion about Hugo Chavez at present. But if you are simply interested in what my standards are for determining whether to accept a quote as legitimate, with Dan Molinski's piece "President Hugo Chavez may seize Toyota factory and give it to the Chinese" item as an example, that I can answer.

I'm not familiar with The Australian, but it's been cited here often and my impression is that it's a legitimate Australian newspaper. I'm also not clear whether this appeared on a news page or an editorial page, but this appears to be a news story rather than op-ed piece. Based on these two assumptions, I would accept this as being a reliable report of something Chavez said. I would have no problem using it myself in a post and I would have no problem accepting it as accurate if someone else used it.

Let me elaborate on news page versus editorial page. There are several direct quotations from Chavez in Molinski's story; if this is a legitimate news story in a legitimate newspaper, then my assumption until reason is given to believe otherwise is that the reporter has a copy of the full speech available, is quoting correctly, and is excerpting fairly.

But if this appeared on an op-ed page, I would not accept this as adequate. (It might well turn out to be correct; but before I'd accept it as reliable, I'd need either to look up the material the columnist was writing about for myself or see some additional assurances from the columnist.)

Columnists often do not have the original text they are referring to at hand when they write their piece. Many base their pieces on what other opinion pieces they've read have said. Therefore they don't get the same benefit of the doubt I give to a news reporter (who are supposed to be either reporting on something they personally heard or drawing on a transcript from someone who was there).

Columnists also are trying to make a point (rather than to report the news), so they may very well be excerpting out only passages which support the point they are trying to make, rather than to give an accurate sense of what the remarks as a whole contained. For example: as I recall, George Will recently quoted material in a column which on examination turned out to say something quite different from what he had represented it as saying.

My bottom-line difference for accepting a quote as genuine is that I need to have someone who is willing say: I have read (or heard) this speech for myself, in its entirety (or in complete enough form that I feel reasonably confident I am familiar enough with it to be able to summarize it fairly). I am quoting accurately, and I am excerpting fairly; if you look up the entire speech for yourself, you will find what I have summarized in greater detail, but what you read will not be significantly different from what I have represented here.

The English language items cited for the earthquake weapons story (Ronald Bailey and Jack Blood) clearly on the inadequate side. No one in either piece gives me any good reason to believe they have actually heard or read the speech they are writing about. In contrast, the Dan Molinski piece for Toyota seizure story appears to me (in my ignorance of both Molinski and The Australian) to be on the adequate side.

I hope that's an adequate answer to your question. (And my apologies for the length of this answer.)
 
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Obviously I am not expressing myself clearly. That happens a lot; I tend to write at a bit too much length, and points which seem clear to me get buried or confused. Let me try again.
I've been known to do that as well, now and again. ;)
... in depth discussion ...
I hope that's an adequate answer to your question. (And my apologies for the length of this answer.)
More than adequate, and your exposition was sorta what I was looking for, more or less. Well, less, in terms of volume. I didn't ask you that question because I thought you were or are a Chavez supporter. I was asking a bit of a leading question.

Thanks. :D I hope that the length of your response does not act as an obstacle to many of our readers here divining why such distinctions as you make are well worth making.

I also completely agree with another point you make: there ain't time to care about it all.

DR
 
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...theaustralian.com.au/business/news/president-hugo-chavez-may-seize-toyota-factory-and-give-it-to-the-chinese/story-e6frg90o-1225813468186

Do you believe that Hugo Chavez was correctly attributed in the above article, or not?

Why, or why not?
...
DR

My take on this: If I read it in a newspaper during breakfast, I would probably take it at face value, with the usual grain of salt: journalists generally do not know crap.


...
But if you are simply interested in what my standards are for determining whether to accept a quote as legitimate, with Dan Molinski's piece "President Hugo Chavez may seize Toyota factory and give it to the Chinese" item as an example, that I can answer.
...
Let me elaborate on news page versus editorial page. There are several direct quotations from Chavez in Molinski's story; if this is a legitimate news story in a legitimate newspaper, then my assumption until reason is given to believe otherwise is that the reporter has a copy of the full speech available, is quoting correctly, and is excerpting fairly.
...

I think that assumption is way too optimistic. At least 90% of most newspaper contents are picked straight from AP, Reuters and very few other news grinders. I would bet my favourite coffee mug that Dan Molinski did NOT have a copy of the full speech. I would guess from his name and country of residence the he likely is not very firm in Spanish, and that maybe no faithful full translation to English exists for that speech. Most probably, he clipped the quotes from a ticker, without digging to the original sources. Because that's how most news journalism works.
 
On more general terms: Hugo Chavez and some of his buddies, such as Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad or the Castro brothers, have a very bad standing in the USA, Europe and their close friends. It seems to go without saying that whenever one of them opens their mouth, what comes out must be utter evil or hate speech.

Now I would like a show of hands: Who of you reading this have ever read but a single speech by any of those pundits, unedited and in context?

Ahmadi-Nejad is often paraphrased as having demanded that Israel be wiped out, suggesting images of total military destruction and a second holocaust. Now I have read several times, that his actual words were something closer to "that the regime in Jerusalem be wiped from the pages of history", which suggests more something like a regime change - without necessarily calling for any violence at all.

I think if he ever said during a friday prayer that the sun is shining over Tehran, some western spin doctor will rephrase this as "darkness and destruction is upon the West", when all he really meant was that it is a splendid day after yesterday's rain.
 
On more general terms: Hugo Chavez and some of his buddies, such as Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad or the Castro brothers, have a very bad standing in the USA, Europe and their close friends. It seems to go without saying that whenever one of them opens their mouth, what comes out must be utter evil or hate speech.

Now I would like a show of hands: Who of you reading this have ever read but a single speech by any of those pundits, unedited and in context?

Ahmadi-Nejad is often paraphrased as having demanded that Israel be wiped out, suggesting images of total military destruction and a second holocaust. Now I have read several times, that his actual words were something closer to "that the regime in Jerusalem be wiped from the pages of history", which suggests more something like a regime change - without necessarily calling for any violence at all.

I think if he ever said during a friday prayer that the sun is shining over Tehran, some western spin doctor will rephrase this as "darkness and destruction is upon the West", when all he really meant was that it is a splendid day after yesterday's rain.


Not understanding Farsi, I've obviously had to rely on the translation of Iranian friends. It appears that Ahmadinnerjacket's speeches are quite ambiguous as to what exactly he wishes upon Israel but can be on occasion quite graphic about "rains of missiles" or suchlike. Most Iranians I've been talking to agree that they are mostly inflamatory material devised to shift the people's attention from what's going on in Iran, e.g. a power grab by Ahmadin and his paramilitary forces.
 
On more general terms: Hugo Chavez and some of his buddies, such as Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad or the Castro brothers, have a very bad standing in the USA, Europe and their close friends. It seems to go without saying that whenever one of them opens their mouth, what comes out must be utter evil or hate speech.

Now I would like a show of hands: Who of you reading this have ever read but a single speech by any of those pundits, unedited and in context?

Ahmadi-Nejad is often paraphrased as having demanded that Israel be wiped out, suggesting images of total military destruction and a second holocaust. Now I have read several times, that his actual words were something closer to "that the regime in Jerusalem be wiped from the pages of history", which suggests more something like a regime change - without necessarily calling for any violence at all.

I think if he ever said during a friday prayer that the sun is shining over Tehran, some western spin doctor will rephrase this as "darkness and destruction is upon the West", when all he really meant was that it is a splendid day after yesterday's rain.

Didn't he call a conference for "an end to Zionism?"
 

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