Merged Now What?

[GlennB]

I will give you 3:1 on up and 3:1 on down. I have to make a living.

???

Can I have 10 kajillion £££ on both? You just made 'equal' a hot favourite

(Or are the markets closed tomorrow and you're playing a deep game? I don't think they are. Maybe it's Billingsgate market, which is neither up nor down?)

eta: the joy of cross-posting

 

[Francesca R]

Oh bollocks that was embarrassing.

 

[Francesca R]

BTW when they were only half way up they were neither up nor down.

 

[GlennB]

Oh bollocks that was embarrassing.

Luckily it didn't involve pressing a button that said: "This trade risks my entire firm, and I don't need authorisation"

Odd thing - Paddy Power paid me out on May to be next PM, but didn't pay me for DC to exit his job in 2016. You'd think that it would be neither or both. Maybe they're trying to hang on to my €10 for an extra day to earn a little interest?

 

[The Don]

Theresa May says she's going to make a "success" of Brexit. I wish the best of luck both to her and to the people of the UK.

IMO for a professional politician like Theresa May (or one from one of the other parties, this isn't a party political point) then she has already made a "success" of Brexit on the grounds that she got the top job as a result of it. Her primary concern is for herself.

If, in the process, she manages to hold the Conservative Party together and get them elected in 2020 (or whenever the next election is) then so much the better. Her secondary concern is for her party.

Of course if she also manages to pilot the UK through the choppy waters of the Brexit process with minimal damage to the economy then that's great but very much lower down her list of priorities.

Look at Corbyn, he'd rather hang on desperately as a hopelessly ineffective leader of the opposition instead of resigning - when the country needs a strong and effective leader of the opposition.

All of the above IMO

 

[Spanx]

Meanwhile the petition to invoke article 50 immediately has gathered over 90 thousand votes.

Do they not realise that parliament are already discussing article 50?

 

[ceptimus]

Look at Corbyn, he'd rather hang on desperately as a hopelessly ineffective leader of the opposition.

That's what his opponents keep repeating, but they're not able to show much in the way of evidence.

Sure, opinion polls are bad for Labour right now, but that's because of the turmoil caused by the Labour rebels. Before they launched their recent coup attempt Labour were doing okay in the polls, and if the MPs had solidly supported their democratically elected leader from the outset then Labour would probably have been doing better still.

It's shameful that these old Blairites hold their own narrow self-interest higher than the interests of the party they ride on the back of.

 

[Belz...]

Why would you want to change it?

For any reason whatsoever.

If Trump invaded and took over would you become American overnight?

Yes.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

For any reason whatsoever.

Yes.

I can only assume that you are bored of this conversation if this is the depth of response we can expect.

 

[Craig B]

... Her primary concern is for herself ... Her secondary concern is for her party ...

Look at Corbyn, he'd rather hang on desperately as a hopelessly ineffective leader of the opposition instead of resigning - when the country needs a strong and effective leader of the opposition.

All of the above IMO

I think you're applying double standards here. You're accusing Corbyn of things you take for granted in Theresa May, without subjecting her to the same condemnation.

Anyway it seems probable to me that Corbyn believes his party needs him as leader, whether he's right or wrong about that.

Moreover, I wouldn't call "minimising damage" the same thing as "success"

 

[The Don]

That's what his opponents keep repeating, but they're not able to show much in the way of evidence.

Have you heard his performance at PMQs ?

He consistently misses easy targets and failed to take David Cameron to task on a variety of key subjects.

Cameron has had an easy ride - May will enjoy a similarly easy time at the dispatch box.

Wider than that, Corbyn has provided an easy target for the press. Press coverage has been all about Corbyn instead of the government or Labour's opposition to that government (contrast that with Nicola Sturgeon who has kept some pressure on the government).

He's completely lost control of, and the support of, the parliamentary Labour Party. He has failed to persuade, threaten or cajole those MPs around to his position.

Sure, opinion polls are bad for Labour right now, but that's because of the turmoil caused by the Labour rebels. Before they launched their recent coup attempt Labour were doing okay in the polls, and if the MPs had solidly supported their democratically elected leader from the outset then Labour would probably have been doing better still.

Even if the Labour Party was riding high in the opinion polls, it's an irrelevance until we have another general election - currently scheduled for 2020. Until then Jeremy Corbyn has an important job leading the opposition which includes:

• Vigorously challenging the PM at PMQs
• Providing clear leadership for the Parliamentary Labour Party
• Inspiring, motivating and persuading a key part of the UK population to consider Labour Party policies which in turn will pressure the government to change their policies to capture that support
• Provide a rallying point for anti-government sentiment

I don't think he's doing a good job at any of that.

It's shameful that these old Blairites hold their own narrow self-interest higher than the interests of the party they ride on the back of.

A violent lurch to the left isn't going to capture the hearts of the UK population IMO. With the exception of Scotland (where the post independence referendum label of "Red Tories" was very damaging), the problem wasn't that the Labour Party wasn't left wing enough. Instead the problems were:

• It was perceived to be too left wing - specifically too reckless in spending
• The leader lacked charisma

Jeremy Corbyn doubles and redoubles on both of those issues and adds a whole extra layer of a dubious past in which he has been a vigorous supporter of the IRA,

 

[The Don]

I think you're applying double standards here. You're accusing Corbyn of things you take for granted in Theresa May, without subjecting her to the same condemnation.

No, I'm saying that they are the same - and the same as most politicians.

First priority themselves
Second priority their party
Third priority the country

So Brexit has already been a success for May because she's got to be PM on the back of it

Anyway it seems probable to me that Corbyn believes his party needs him as leader, whether he's right or wrong about that.

I have yet to see any evidence that Corbyn's primary concern is anything other than Jeremy Corbyn. That's not unusual or unreasonable but to suggest otherwise would require evidence.

Moreover, I wouldn't call "minimising damage" the same thing as "success"

Right now w.r.t. Brexit IMO that's all we have.

 

[catsmate]

I think you'll find economic forecasts are easy to get badly wrong. Even if you have a degree in economics. Do you?

Nope.
I just have access to people who do. And lots of experience.

I haven't but I've noticed my seaweed is twisting to the right and that usually means I've a 50/50 chance of the market either going up or down tomorrow.

Reminds me of the Tempest Prognosticator.

BTW when they were only half way up they were neither up nor down.

But at least they were doing something.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

[*]Inspiring, motivating and persuading a key part of the UK population to consider Labour Party policies which in turn will pressure the government to change their policies to capture that support

I think you could argue he's done exactly that. At least the first bit.

It's odd that you don't mention what I think is possibly the number 1 role of the Labour leader though and that would be to uphold the values and principles of the Labour Party and its membership.

I'm not sure 'sniping at the Tories' is really all that important in the big scheme of things since it will change precisely nothing. Someone who doesn't get involved in that could actually be very useful as Labour leader since rather than have their agenda dictated by the media and the Tories they can set their own agenda.

We keep saying we are tired of politicians who are all the same and yet as soon as we get one a bit different we do our best to destroy them because they aren't doing what we expect from politicians.

I don't think Corbyn is very effective or very convincing but he seems to have got a lot of people very worried within the Establishment and that must be a sign of something. When everyone is this out to get you I'm inclined to think you must have something going for you.

 

[The Don]

I think you could argue he's done exactly that. At least the first bit.

I disagree - I don't think he's getting a persuasive Labout Party message across to the "floating voters". Sure he appeals to Labour Party activists and old Trots but they aren't going to get Labour elected.

It's odd that you don't mention what I think is possibly the number 1 role of the Labour leader though and that would be to uphold the values and principles of the Labour Party and its membership.

Which Labour Party ?

It seems that they are the values of the Labour party I joined and worked very hard to change - the Labour Party of the 70's and early 80's.

 

[cullennz]

I disagree - I don't think he's getting a persuasive Labout Party message across to the "floating voters". Sure he appeals to Labour Party activists and old Trots but they aren't going to get Labour elected.



Which Labour Party ?

It seems that they are the values of the Labour party I joined and worked very hard to change - the Labour Party of the 70's and early 80's.

It isn't the 70s or 80s any more.

Things change

 

[Lothian]

It's odd that you don't mention what I think is possibly the number 1 role of the Labour leader though and that would be to uphold the values and principles of the Labour Party and its membership.

What are those values and do they take priority over leading the party to Election glory?

I am fairly sure that a far left wing government would do a lot of good to help those who feel dissatisfied and ignored to improve their lives and feel more inclined to contribute positively to society. I think it will give a necessary boost to the construction industry and will look to restore proper services in industries which have asset stripped national resources. I think it would do a lot of good. I also think it has no chance of getting elected in the current climate.

It seems that the hard left think that if they can control the Labour party eventually people will get sick of the Tories and they will get power. I don't want to wait that long.

Labour need to learn from the leave campaign. Find a charismatic personality who is happy to tell a **** load of lies about what a UK under Labour will look like. Then once they are in power they can then take a serious look at what is possible to make the country less divided.

 

[Lothian]

It isn't the 70s or 80s any more.

Things change

That is Don's point.

 

[Lothian]

I don't think Corbyn is very effective or very convincing but he seems to have got a lot of people very worried within the Establishment and that must be a sign of something.

So did Nick Griffin. Perhaps it is a sign that you will get some fanatical supporters but most people think you are dangerous.

 

[Tolls]

I'm not sure 'sniping at the Tories' is really all that important in the big scheme of things since it will change precisely nothing. Someone who doesn't get involved in that could actually be very useful as Labour leader since rather than have their agenda dictated by the media and the Tories they can set their own agenda.

Except his agenda is long dead horses he insists on whipping.
Trident?
And the bloody Falkland Islands?

That's not someone with his finger on the pulse of the nation.

I think you misinterpret the worry from the Establishment (do you mean the MPs in his party?) for worry that he's driving the only major left wing party we have off a cliff.