Merged Now What?

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Aber said:
Effectively yes; Osborne has binned plans for running a surplus by 2020, so he won't have to raise income tax rates.
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The punishment budget was cancelled last Monday IIRC and the book-balancing promise rolled back a day or so after.

The punishment budget surely qualifies under "Lies by the remain campaign"
 
Francesca R said:
The Leave campaign owed its strength and success to what it was uniting voters against, not what it was uniting them for. Having a policy proposal beyond what they said would perhaps have weakened it
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Perhaps? :p
 
MikeG said:
You think Labour agree that the status quo is acceptable? They wouldn't do anything different if they came to power?
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The vote was about remaining in the EU or leaving it. It had sod all to do with what the next labour Government might do. The Tories had a plan as laid out in their manifesto and the Queens speeches. Leave had no plan.
 
Francesca R said:
The Leave campaign owed its strength and success to what it was uniting voters against, not what it was uniting them for. Having a policy proposal beyond what they said would perhaps have weakened it
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If they'd had one we'd have heard about it by now. We haven't : they didn't.

All they had was electioneering. Lies, ringing phrases, incredible promises and posturing. The most fatuous campaign ever.

And they failed, lets not forget. However small the protest vote against the government was it had to be more than the margin of victory. This vote wasn't attracted or persuaded by the Exiter clowns, it was going against Cameron from the start.
 
MikeG said:
Talking of magical numbers, do you support the claim which I was responding to that 75% of the country's financial services business will be lost, amounting to 15% of GDP? These were specific claims, made more than once by a poster in this thread. His only support for them..........another post of his.
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I was arguing that the industry could disappear, the whole 20% of the economy. Not the case, as there is local business to be done, and some deals will have nothing to do with the EU. So I did exaggerate for effect to show what is at stake.

However, I do not think an estimate of half to as much as 80% can leave. The reason is the global finance industry is all about concentration of market dealers in few main trading locations. Once London is not one of these global centers, a large chunk goes bye-bye. Once you lose the talent pool and the critical mass of major firms (banks, insurance, brokers), there is no infrastructure to retain business.

So, forget exact numbers. If 20% of the economy takes a significant hit, the entire economy does as well. And from what is reported in the press about planning at these major firms, bye-bye is in the cards.
 
Lothian said:
Has it been cancelled? The reports I saw said he talked about an emergency budget in the 2 months following the referendum.
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The assumptions behind this year's budget have been so thoroughly shredded that a review at least is going to be necessary. Osborne will want to get that done on his watch, I'd have thought.

Ditching the deficit millstone was pretty radical, but naturally welcome, and a gift to May if and when she takes office.
 
MikeG said:
You do know that things aren't always judged purely on economics, don't you?
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I used to be as naive as that, but I have long now seen the light. All those consideration you mentioned beside economy are near worthless for a country with bad economy. You want to know why ? Because the principal consideration for the crushing majority of people are : food on their plate and their children, a roof, heating in winter, education for their children, and entertainment before other consideration like politics or a completely warped idea of sovereignty. And all those are ultimately linked to economy and opportunity cost and reward.

Look it is very simply, have an economy in shamble (and yes losing a few % can already be critical seeing how many people suddenly find themselves jobless) and people will not care less about sovereignty or whatever lies "the sun" fed them. They will care they don't have a job and difficulty to meet ends. I am sure it will be very cute for them to know that now they can be jobless in an UK outside EU rather than in. No. Not really.

And i am betting all my shirt that should this scenario plays out, none of the leaver will take personal responsibility for the economic loss or joblessness. No, I am betting it will eb "EU's fault" and "the foreigner".
 
Francesca R said:
75% of financial services is not "15% of GDP"
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Actually it pretty much is. FS and directly connected ancillary services (mostly PS) is around 22% of UK economic activity. Now I don't consider three quarters of that leaving to be particularly likely (it'd take a fairly monumental screw-up by the government).
My three scenarios are:
Best case the UK loses one tenth of the FS sector, or around 2.25% of GDP
Middle case (most probable) the loss is around one quarter, i.e. 5.5% of GDP
Worst probably case is the loss of two-fifths, around 9% of GDP.

Note these scenarios are FS and directly connected supporting services only. Given that the rest of the services sector contributes another ~60% of UK GDP and that is also looking shakey there is a real possibility of more than one-tenth of the UK's economic activity disappearing within 2-3 years.
 
Aepervius said:
I used to be as naive as that, but I have long now seen the light..........
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Are you married? Do you have kids? Have you ever bought a new car? Do you drink or smoke? (Please don't answer, I don't need to know). If the answer is yes to any of those, then economics isn't always the deciding factor in decision making.
 
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angrysoba said:
Oh yes. Which is how we got into the current mess of being leaderless with no clear route forward.
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In the grand scheme of things, this period will be irrelevant (other than for the potential damage it does to the Labour party). I agree there should have been civil service planning for the event, and one can only blame Cameron for that. being "leaderless" (because of course we aren't) is short term, and not uncommon.
 
Lothian said:
Has it been cancelled? The reports I saw said he talked about an emergency budget in the 2 months following the referendum.
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Well I understood it to have been cancelled. Unless the Guardian is in the Leave camp and desperately trying to smear remainers

George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union by hiking income tax, alcohol and petrol duties and making massive cuts to the NHS, schools and defence.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu
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After the vote to leave the EU, against the backdrop of weakening business and consumer confidence, and volatile financial markets, Osborne ruled out an emergency budget.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/01/george-osborne-scraps-2020-budget-surplus-plan
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MikeG said:
I know that. Does McHronzi?
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From where I'm sitting it looks like he is more interesting in scoring 'debate points' on an internet forum, and calling people he disagrees with obnoxious names than actually making a real argument backed up with evidence.
 
CapelDodger said:
The assumptions behind this year's budget have been so thoroughly shredded that a review at least is going to be necessary. Osborne will want to get that done on his watch, I'd have thought.
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Right, but it is going to relax fiscal policy (tighten it less than previous plans). The "punishment budget" was to do the opposite.

Still having an interim fiscal change, but having it occur in the opposite direction, is not really doing what you threatened you would have to.
 
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