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Merged Now What?

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MikeG said:
I've said it before, I'll say it again. Tariffs of 3% are within the range of normal currency (Sterling/ Euro) fluctuations, so wouldn't be a big deal. Paying those and not contributing billions to the Euro coffers might actually be a better bargain for the UK than remaining a member of the single market. Don't believe that the EU holds all the cards in this negotiation for a second.
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Overall you may be right but

3% is in addition to currency fluctuations

Overall exports to the EU are more than £200bn - so a 3% tariff across the board would cost £6bn + eating into the savings from the EU contribution

I could not easily find what the average net margin of UK exporters is (or of UK industry). Something I did find was the average net margin for S&P500 companies of 10% or so from a couple of years ago.

Assuming all else remained the same (not a good assumption) a 3% unrecoverered tariff would reduce profitability of UK exporters by some 30% - distinctly non trivial

( I am aware of the extreme crudeness in this back of fag packet calculation)
 
Darat said:
The UK government could in principle at anytime disband the entire elected governments of Scotland, Wales and so on. Personally I don't think there is any chance of that happening but I could see if the will of the UK electorate is being "held hostage" (which is undoubtable the phrase that will be used in such a scenario) to one of those government a quick bit of legislation will remove any such roadblock.
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Sure, if they wanted Scotland to unilaterally declare independence 30 seconds later.
 
Agatha said:
MikeG, do you think the tariffs imposed to trade with the EU partners would be in the order of 3%? I fear that the EU will seek to impose punitive tariffs pour encourager les autres if nothing else; the EU needs reform but they won't want to do anything to give us an easy ride for fear of other countries leaving.
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The EU already has a large and comprehensive tarriff. There is no need for a new one for the UK, it will use expatriates unless a free trade deal is reached. Obviously the UK doesn't have to match the EU rates. It could go 3% across the board, but that is generally not how it works. It is meant to protect UK businesses so would normally vary by product.
Tarrifs also add an admin burden to importing goods, cutting profits unless prices are increased. There will also be delays in getting goods through customs.
 
Travis said:
Sorry but if they voted for Leave they are racists. I am very comfortable calling everyone that voted that way a racist. And racism should be punished.
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ANd a lot of people who voted Remain are also going to be punished.

Careful with the sweeping generalsations,there, kid.
I have noted you are becoming more extreme in your opinions.
 
Craig B said:
Yes it may well do. The BBC news report is here.

ETA More bizarre news. Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in the EU! If Scotland becomes independent, will Gib join her? Sounds like fun. Unfortunately (or perhaps very fortunately) there's not much else of the Empire left for Scotland to adopt.
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I'm happy for us to give them Norfolk Island if they want it.
 
Damien Evans said:
I'm happy for us to give them Norfolk Island if they want it.
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Unfortunately New South Wales will probably beat us to it.
Norfolk Island is scheduled to be absorbed into the state of New South Wales in July 2016​
says wiki.
 
Getting back to Now What, I'll venture a narrative:

During the coming months of uncertainty a host of investment decisions are put on hold, leading to a capital spending drought and recession in construction and heavy industries. The Tory election and Party Conference leave nobody any the wiser, which leads us nicely into October, traditional month of financial meltdowns.

With another global crash to cope it would, of course, be madness to continue with the exit process on top. Any Prime Minister can see that, and can find a cabinet which agrees. So we wake up one morning and it all seems like a bad dream.
 
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Archie Gemmill Goal said:
Because passing ONE of the bars is simple but the text requires BOTH of the bars to be passed. So my response was to your Why Not? question rather than your follow up part about either bar (my mistake there in my quoting)
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I was under the impression that either bar would be sufficient, according to the petition. This referendum passed neither.

McHrozni
 
Agatha said:
Hardly inconsequential - the UK is the fifth sixth largest world economy. And as a net contributor to the EU budget, the EU will in fact be worse off once we leave.
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A derail I suppose, but the UK's economy is driven largely by services followed by manufacturing. I'm certain both of these will take a massive hit as a result of Brexit. Redundancies and relocations have already been announced.

I don't wish it to happen, but I expect to see the UK slip down this league ladder rather steadily.
 
CapelDodger said:
Getting back to Now What, I'll venture a narrative:

During the coming months of uncertainty a host of investment decisions are put on hold, leading to a capital spending drought and recession in construction and heavy industries. The Tory election and Party Conference leave nobody any the wiser, which leads us nicely into October, traditional month of financial meltdowns.

With another global crash to cope it would, of course, be madness to continue with the exit process on top. Any Prime Minister can see that, and can find a cabinet which agrees. So we wake up one morning and it all seems like a bad dream.
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I'm quite certain UK will not leave the EU. There could well be a general election this fall, with at least one party openly backing a "think again" option. If they win, this will be a mandate to ignore the result of this referendum.

It's not like the next steps the UK must take are set in stone. It's embarrassing to the UK yes, Cameron will rightfully join the ranks of the unemployed certainly, but there is no need to inflict even more pain on the UK and Europe on what was discovered to be a stinking a pack of lies within 18 hours of the votes being counted.

McHrozni
 
What I am not understanding is why the EU want a quick move to article 50? Since the process will take at least 2 years, there will be continued uncertainty for 2 years. If they want some certainty the they could agree some draft negotiations agree the shape of things and leave article 50 negotiations to the details. It strikes me there is an element of cutting off one's nose to spite your face. EU refusing to talk is creating more uncertainty. Talk about punishing UK will only make markets more nervous. An adult and calming and reassuring approach would be to say that we will enter negotiations to achieve the best outcome for everyone and start discussing the process and structure so formal negotiations can proceed rapidly and smoothly. Otherwise the beginning of the article 50 negotiations will be negotiating about the negotiations.
 
McHrozni said:
I'm quite certain UK will not leave the EU.
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No, you're wrong. It is government policy, the settled will of the people, and there is no viable opposition to enacting the referendum result.

McHrozni said:
There could well be a general election this fall, with at least one party openly backing a "think again" option. If they win, this will be a mandate to ignore the result of this referendum.
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You don't follow British politics, do you. Let me help you.

The conservatives will have a pro-leave leader in a couple of months time. They are the party of government, and it is government policy to enact the referendum decision (and this from the Remain leadership). Labour, supposedly the opposition, are in utter disarray, trying to oust their leader, and facing a wipe-out in England, according to one of their own, as bad as they have suffered in Scotland. The Lib Dems, who do have a policy of trying to reverse the decision, apparently, are down to 7 or 8 MPs in a parliament of 650 MPs.

Tell me, who is going to be strong enough to ignore a referendum result?

Let me tell you this: any party that were to do that would never get near power again. You might think it OK to ignore referendum results, but that's not the way things work here.
 
Planigale said:
What I am not understanding is why the EU want a quick move to article 50?
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I can think of a couple of reasons. The first is that even though the process may take up to 2 years (or more if unanimous agreement is reached), starting the process signals to the world that a decision has been made and that the UK will exit. Even if this is damaging for the EU, it's less damaging than uncertainty.

A more Machiavellian view is that why not start the process while the UK is in disarray - gives more chance for the EU to get what they want.
 
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