Merged Now What?

[The Don]

In general brexit news.

Viewed in rose-tinted Brexitvision....

[*]Contrary to some claims sterling has not recovered but rather fallen further in this morning's trading.

Making British exports even more competitive overseas - Yay Brexit !

[*]Barclays, RBS and Easyjet shares have slumped, in fact trading in Barclays has been suspended after they fell >10%.

Giving those bastage bankers' noses a tweak and IIRC Easyjet was founded by a swarthy foreigner and has made profits at the expense of good honest British folk - Yey Brexit !

[*]Osborne's attempt to reassure business doesn't appear to be working.

Exposing the ruling class' separation from reality - Yay Brexit !

[*]The 'gilt yield' (return on UK government bonds) has fallen to its lowest level ever. Yeild from 10 year beyond has fallen below 1% for the first time.

That sounds like it'll be cheaper to borrow money - Yay Brexit !

[*]The Labour shadow cabinet didn't take kindly to the dismissal of Benn and the revelations about Corbyn's lack of Remain support, eleven others resigned.

Meaning that the forces which could make Brexit less effective (by forcing the free movement of people and whatnot) are in disarray - Yay Brexit !

[*]Speculation about a Scottish attempt to block the UK's departure from the EU gain pace. [BBC]

Good riddance - Yay Brexit !

[*]As does speculation about a parliamentary attempt to block brexit. [The Guardian]. Interestingly those involved now include Michael Heseltine and even (somewhat) Tony Blair

Exposing the ruling class' separation from reality - again - Yay Brexit !

[*]Ian Duncan Smith joined Farage in disclaiming any responsibility for the infamous "£350M" Leave lie. This is despite being filmed and photographed in front of the claim on numerous occasions.

It's all been taken out of context but once we no longer have to send that money to the EU we'll be quids in - Yay Brexit !

[*]The Institute of Directors has said that one quarter of members polled have put hiring plans on hold, around 5% are planning redundancies, one fifth are considering moving business outside of the UK and two-thirds said the outcome of the referendum was negative for their business.

Messers Dyson and Bamford said they'd make up the difference - Yay Brexit !

[*] Finally, contrary to those who claimed that there is no hurry to invoke A50 and the UK has unlimited time, it's quite possible that if Cameron attends the European council on Tuesday his conversation there will be sufficient to constitute invoking A50, based on an interpretation by Derrick Wyatt [BBC]

The sooner the better - Yay Brexit !

 

[catsmate]

No, that's right. That's why independence movements sometimes turn into bloody affairs, as in Ireland - but a century ago. There was no peaceful way of achieving it.

That is not entirely (or even mainly) true, but this isn't the place for such a discussion.

But in practice the modern UK government is neither so despotic not so foolish.

Nor has it the capability of stopping, for example, a Scottish departure by force.

 

[Francesca R]

The EU gets to make the rules on what constitutes notification. And there's a certain amount of hostility against the UK (and especially that cretin Cameron) there.

It has already made those rules and it seems having a domestic referendum doesn't constitute a trigger.

 

[catsmate]

In other words, Experts 10 : 0 Brexiters.

I'm not all that surprised, really.

McHrozni

Seriously this referendum convinces me that, in an era of mass media manipulation of opinion and a disengaged electorate, universal suffrage isn't working.

 

[LondonJohn]

Bad news all round then.

On the last, there are a hundred and one different actions which might look a bit like invoking A50, but I doubt anything like that would actually do so. If the Council spokesman referred to in the BBC report says a formal notification would be needed, then that's probably what they'll wait for.

And once the Art50 button is pressed, then the die is case. Clearly those within the EU/EC want swift resolution of all this, since the uncertainty and elongation of the UK's withdrawal is not good for the EU or any of its member states either. But on the other hand, I suspect that there are many within the upper echelons of the European Project who would actually rather the very-difficult-to-reverse Art50 button is not pressed, since they are wondering whether there might be some prospect of a reversal. Even the anti-UK-ites in Brussels and Strasbourg can pragmatically see that an EU with the UK is stronger and more stable than a UK-less EU, and that if there were some way of preventing the UK's departure, the risk of contagion would obviously diminish.

And at the same time, I suspect the hand of the UK Govt is hanging cautiously over the Art50 button for much the same reason. Once Art50 kicks in, the way back is an enormous deal more difficult and complicated. But if Art50 is not activated, it could be relatively easy (notwithstanding the problems around redoing referendums etc) for the UK's withdrawal from the EU to be paused and ultimately reversed........

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Boris Johnson in the Telegraph...
Some populist nonsense in there but I think one can recognize the beginnings of a negotiating position. tl;dr : The Norwegian Option.

There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment.

Translation: The UK will continue to fund various European projects.

He denies immigration as a factor in the vote. He also promises:

EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

Translation: We will let the Poles stay.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down.

Translation: We will accept freedom of movement.

Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry.

This need not be any contradiction to the above. Any points system can be easily designed to satisfy freedom of movement.

The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal.

(emphasis by me)
Indeed, if the UK became an EFTA member like Norway, cases would be tried before the EFTA court.

Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS.

I wouldn't be surprised if UK net payments become higher but Johnson is obviously talking about gross payments: IE the ridiculous 350 million/week figure. That's a promise that's easy to keep.

Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

The EU is a customs union while EFTA is not. That would give the UK indeed some options which are not available now.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

We need new terms now.

'Exit' seems apt for England but seems to exclude Wales and NI. EWNIXIT is a bit cumbersome and sounds a bit too much like Bojo shouting in replay to 'What we going to do about actually leaving the EU Boris?' 'Ewww, Nix it!'

'Scremain' seems like some kind of Victorian illness brought about by malnutrition so that's not going to work. Maybe we could call it McStay and have it led by former footballer Jock McStay, most famous for being headbutted by Duncan Ferguson (who could lead the McExit campaign. The Daily Mail proposed 'Piss off porridge wogs' campaign fell at the first hurdle after FrancescaR refuse to front such a moderate approach.

 

[McHrozni]

Seriously this referendum convinces me that, in an era of mass media manipulation of opinion and a disengaged electorate, universal suffrage isn't working.

In a sense it never "worked". Democracy where every person is equal to every other person is just the least flawed system we have. You could have a system where the amount of taxes you contributed constituted your voting power, and it would suffer from other problems than the democracy we have does. It's not unprecedented in the slightest, the EU parliament representation is partially based on the size of various economies and by extension, their contribution to the overall budget. It's a tad difficult to have a secret vote that way though. You could also count votes of educated people as more valuable and so on.

These solutions would reduce the scope of some problems our democracy has, but increase the scope of other problems - social mobility in particular would likely decline. As a result it's hard to say we'd have a better system overall.

McHrozni

 

[Information Analyst]

Branson weighs in, and linking to the 4chan plaything too

You mean 4Chan's immature pissing-in-a-lake that was absolutely dwarfed by genuine signatories?

 

[Francesca R]

The Daily Mail proposed 'Piss off porridge wogs' campaign fell at the first hurdle after FrancescaR refuse to front such a moderate approach.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

In a sense it never "worked". Democracy where every person is equal to every other person is just the least flawed system we have. You could have a system where the amount of taxes you contributed constituted your voting power, and it would suffer from other problems than the democracy we have does. It's not unprecedented in the slightest, the EU parliament representation is partially based on the size of various economies and by extension, their contribution to the overall budget. It's a tad difficult to have a secret vote that way though. You could also count votes of educated people as more valuable and so on.

These solutions would reduce the scope of some problems our democracy has, but increase the scope of other problems - social mobility in particular would likely decline. As a result it's hard to say we'd have a better system overall.

McHrozni

Plus if racists, idiots and cretins want to live in a country that repeatedly punches itself in the face for no real reason shouldn't they be allowed to?

One of the great benefits of freedom of movement is (was?) that it also allows people to leave if they choose to do so.

We might be about to see a bit of a brain drain and a general dumbing down of the UK.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

The EU gets to make the rules on what constitutes notification. And there's a certain amount of hostility against the UK (and especially that cretin Cameron) there.

Yes, but the UK explicitly gets to make the rules on what constitutes a decision. As long as the UK does not formally decide to leave, the proceedings can't start.

 

[kevsta]

Except that gilt yields falling suggests buying not selling.

I was going to ask your opinion on this. if the £ is toast, why would people be piling into Gilts? what don't I get here?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Viewed in rose-tinted Brexitvision....



Making British exports even more competitive overseas - Yay Brexit !



Giving those bastage bankers' noses a tweak and IIRC Easyjet was founded by a swarthy foreigner and has made profits at the expense of good honest British folk - Yey Brexit !



Exposing the ruling class' separation from reality - Yay Brexit !



That sounds like it'll be cheaper to borrow money - Yay Brexit !



Meaning that the forces which could make Brexit less effective (by forcing the free movement of people and whatnot) are in disarray - Yay Brexit !



Good riddance - Yay Brexit !



Exposing the ruling class' separation from reality - again - Yay Brexit !



It's all been taken out of context but once we no longer have to send that money to the EU we'll be quids in - Yay Brexit !



Messers Dyson and Bamford said they'd make up the difference - Yay Brexit !



The sooner the better - Yay Brexit !

You missed the best news of all. Thanks to the fall in the £ Nigel Farage has been given a £500/month pay rise (since he's paid in Euros)

The EU might be a multi-billion Euro gravy train in his view, but he's going to make sure his snout is at the front of the trough if there's money to be made.

 

[Francesca R]

Not agreeing to accept a share of someone else's debt is not, never could be and will never be 'a default'

[ . . . ]

If the argument was that the Tory's mates in the city would simply try to punish Scotland for annoying the Tories well we're used to that anyway.

The capital markets are not necessarily the "Tories' mates in the City", they're the ones that have pushed down the pound to 1985 levels and sold UK financials. They're not subservient to any government and happy to inflict punishment on assets they think just got risky, and they forced the situation where Greece, Portugal and Ireland required massive EU wide rescues, among other things.

You can claim that investors wouldn't regard a walk-away threat as significantly raising the credit risk of Scotland if you like though. Hopefully Sturgeon won't.

 

[kevsta]

You mean 4Chan's immature pissing-in-a-lake that was absolutely dwarfed by genuine signatories?

I suppose it remains to be seen the extent of the Bot fraud and whether it can be regarded as credible or not, and thus debated.

no further word from the petitions committee about it yet?

and let's face it, if the public feeling really is that strong and the continual 40k votes per hour weren't primarily Bots, it won't be hard to reproduce it again on a more credible version.

 

[Francesca R]

I was going to ask your opinion on this. if the £ is toast, why would people be piling into Gilts? what don't I get here?

Presumably because Brexit / whatever happens doesn't make gilts much less creditworthy, but does mean interest rates stay low for another couple of centuries.

 

[McHrozni]

Plus if racists, idiots and cretins want to live in a country that repeatedly punches itself in the face for no real reason shouldn't they be allowed to?

They probably should, at least as long as they don't drag down everyone else in the process. They serve as a warning for others if nothing else.

Overall I think the result of the vote - in particular the debacle of the 'victorious' side, their utter lack of leadership and backpedaling on all the vital points of their campaign was precisely what the EU needed. It needed to remind it's population that the 'Euroskeptics' (that don't deserve the "k") peddle lies and misinformation in exchange for votes, and aren't actually serious about their ideas.

I was worried what might happen on Friday, but by Sunday it was pretty much clear who actually suffered a defeat.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Amusing very NSFW-language post about what next from Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/dom.beaven/posts/10153494690506086

Some excerpts:

Theresa. You're in charge love. Get the biggest shoulder pads you've got. We need Ming The Merciless in drag and you'll scare the **** out of 'em.

Opposition party. We'll need one. Someone take Jeremy and John back to the British Legion Club where you found them. Take Nigel as well. Give back their sandals, buy them a pint, then go to Heathrow and collect David Milliband.

 

[Craig B]

That is not entirely (or even mainly) true, but this isn't the place for such a discussion.

Put up or shut up.