Merged Now What?

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Lothian said:
Lord Ashcroft's polls dataset (Table 3 covers education)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf
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Aha, I see, thanks!

It's actually a bit worse than you put it, would you believe it. The uneducated percentage is correct (albeit statistically somewhat unreliable), but the higher education percentage is even more skewed in favor of staying in the EU (!). It's 57% of those with a university degree, but 64% of those with a higher university degree. There is a very strong correlation between having a higher education and voting to remain and between lower education and voting to leave. Those still in full-time education voted overwhelmingly to remain.

Ambrosia pointed out that higher education doesn't necessarily mean higher intelligence. While this is true, the fact is also reflected in the polls - some of people with higher degrees voted to leave and some of the uneducated voted remain, for example. Just like there is a (notable) correlation between higher intellect and higher education, there is also a similar correlation between education and voting result

McHrozni
 
Tolls said:
The first thing that pops into my head there is about pirates and their effect on global warming.
In other words, could this simply be an artifact rather than actual determining thing?
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'Concomitant' would describe it. The authoritarian tendency that leads to support for capital punishment would also tend to lead a person to want to maximise their country's authority over its internal affairs.

I very much agree with the gist of the article, as it happens.

Another example would be where you take 1,000 supporters of capital punishment and asked them their views on foxhunting. Those 1,000 would (I'd bet heavily) tend to be more supportive of foxhunting than the general population. While the two issues aren't related there is a third matter that connects the hanging/hunting thing.
 
Darat said:
I've read an advisory note from a bank that is estimating 75,000 financial sector jobs lost or transferred out of London over the next 3 years. And that does not take into account all the "support" jobs, coffee shops and sandwich shops.
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That meshes with some conversations I've been having.
Property markets are getting twitchy.
 
McHrozni said:
In case anyone is wondering why I'm so adamantly and consistently stressing the supporters of Brexit have below average intelligence that remains that way even when you factor in the great apes, monkeys and most farm animals, there's your reason.
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Exactly.

McHrozni said:
There's a lot of talk how Europe will negotiate a good deal with the UK and how it won't punish the UK and so on. Perhaps, but irrelevant - the uncertainty will do the bulk of the damage anyway, and this damage is essentially unavoidable, short of negating results of the referendum somehow.
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Some people are treating "Europe" as a monolithic state; it isn't. There are elements within many EU states that are very pissed at the UK and will joyously screw the country over. Further, local interests, for example in France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands, will cheerfully work to damage the UK FS sector in order to gain a share of the economic output and tax take.

To mis-quote Pratchett:
Britain is like this big suet pudding that everyone’s suddenly noticed, and now with this Brexit chaos as an excuse we’ve all got to rush there with knife, fork and spoon to shovel as much on our plates as possible?
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catsmate said:
Some people are treating "Europe" as a monolithic state; it isn't. There are elements within many EU states that are very pissed at the UK and will joyously screw the country over. Further, local interests, for example in France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands, will cheerfully work to damage the UK FS sector in order to gain a share of the economic output and tax take.
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I certainly agree with that, but in order to do so, they don't even need to "punish" the UK by unceremoniously dumping it out of EU without negotiating a mutually beneficial free trade, nor do they need to play hardball, even though some may be inclined to do so. There is no need for EU to be childish on it. Simply offering the bankers to keep their operations as intact as possible may be enough for many financial institutions to move. The cost can be immense for the UK, in the ballpark of 15% of British GDP, which I would argue would even be excessive as a punishment. But it's not even punishment, just an opportunity the Brits have closed to themselves.

It has another upside for the EU - most of that would move from UK to the continent, meaning the drop in exports to UK would be mostly replaced by a proportional increase in exports to countries receiving the finance industry, be it France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland or whomever. The Pratchett quote you mentioned is alarmingly appropriate.

Even a smaller cost of 5% of British GDP moving to the EU would likely send shockwaves through the countries' finances, while providing a welcome revenue boost to the EU.

McHrozni
 
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McHrozni said:
I certainly agree with that, but in order to do so, they don't even need to "punish" the UK by unceremoniously dumping it out of EU without negotiating a mutually beneficial free trade, nor do they need to play hardball, even though some may be inclined to do so. There is no need for EU to be childish on it. Simply offering the bankers to keep their operations as intact as possible may be enough for many financial institutions to move. The cost can be immense for the UK, in the ballpark of 15% of British GDP, which I would argue would even be excessive as a punishment. But it's not even punishment, just an opportunity the Brits have closed to themselves.

It has another upside for the EU - most of that would move from UK to the continent, meaning the drop in exports to UK would be mostly replaced by a proportional increase in exports to countries receiving the finance industry, be it France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland or whomever. The Pratchett quote you mentioned is alarmingly appropriate.

Even a smaller cost of 5% of British GDP moving to the EU would likely send shockwaves through the countries' finances, while providing a welcome revenue boost to the EU.

McHrozni
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You couldn't back this figure up previously, yet you still choose to use it. Curious.
 
Yeah, I saw that bit of nonsense. The UK is going to lose three quarters of its financial services because......France. No link to any economist's work. No substantiation of any of your figures. Not even a link to a bit of supportive journalism. Clueless.

Your ridiculous claim remains unsubstantiated, and yet you repeat it as fact.
 
MikeG said:
Yeah, I saw that bit of nonsense. The UK is going to lose three quarters of its financial services because......France. No link to any economist's work. No substantiation of any of your figures. Not even a link to a bit of supportive journalism. Clueless.

Your ridiculous claim remains unsubstantiated, and yet you repeat it as fact.
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No, I don't think you saw it before. I think, though, that we've seen enough hand waving away the damages of Brexit, that has ignored all expert advice, advice from friends and allies and common sense. You don't get to do that any more.

"Because France" was a rather bad Freudian slip, by the way.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b14d60-3a36-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4DXBrpS2A

Senior figures in France, such as Gérard Mestrallet, president of the Europlace lobby group, have already argued that UK-based entities should not be allowed to passport into the EU. They see a chance to boost Paris as a financial centre instead.

Yeah, because (of) France. Precisely because of France, their power and their vested interest in obtaining as much business from the UK as possible. France is not alone in it either, I'm sure Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and others would help, whereas UK is essentially alone.

The finance industry moving is a done deal if A50 is triggered. The only question is how much of it will move and how soon.

McHrozni
 
MikeG said:
Yeah, I saw that bit of nonsense. The UK is going to lose three quarters of its financial services because......France. No link to any economist's work. No substantiation of any of your figures. Not even a link to a bit of supportive journalism. Clueless.

Your ridiculous claim remains unsubstantiated, and yet you repeat it as fact.
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Please stop asking for hard proof of probabilities regarding future outcomes. There has been no prior Brexit to work from, so what most sane people do is think of what businesses do: reduce risks, maximize profits. Take those to a moderate logical outcome, avoiding extremes, and you get a UK recession from Brexit. Factor in EU statements that there will be no negotiation until Art 50 is triggered, while Tory candidates preach a slow approach (and negotiations they will not be able to conduct!) and you get maximum uncertainty. Add to that the prevalence of English as a business language and the consequent historical location in the UK of many companies from outside the EU looking to do business there, and you get another group of immediate candidates for UK-exit to EU territories.

Brexit. Spelled o-o-p-s.
 
McHrozni said:
I certainly agree with that, but in order to do so, they don't even need to "punish" the UK by unceremoniously dumping it out of EU without negotiating a mutually beneficial free trade, nor do they need to play hardball, even though some may be inclined to do so. There is no need for EU to be childish on it. Simply offering the bankers to keep their operations as intact as possible may be enough for many financial institutions to move. The cost can be immense for the UK, in the ballpark of 15% of British GDP, which I would argue would even be excessive as a punishment. But it's not even punishment, just an opportunity the Brits have closed to themselves.

It has another upside for the EU - most of that would move from UK to the continent, meaning the drop in exports to UK would be mostly replaced by a proportional increase in exports to countries receiving the finance industry, be it France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland or whomever. The Pratchett quote you mentioned is alarmingly appropriate.

Even a smaller cost of 5% of British GDP moving to the EU would likely send shockwaves through the countries' finances, while providing a welcome revenue boost to the EU.

McHrozni
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Exactly.
If even a quarter of the FS sector's moves, that's about 5.5% of UK GDP (including PS and some associated service industries). And about Stg£15 billion in tax revenue...
OK, bad news for property prices in Dublin but hey.

Plus it's not just the FS sector; companies like Vodafone are investigating a move. Even if the UK does decide to remain within the EEA the uncertainty and delay may push some companies out of the UK. Certainly the FUD isn't inspiring my employers, nor is the rhetoric coming from the Conservative party.
 
McHrozni said:
No, I don't think you saw it before. I think, though, that we've seen enough hand waving away the damages of Brexit, that has ignored all expert advice, advice from friends and allies and common sense. You don't get to do that any more.

"Because France" was a rather bad Freudian slip, by the way.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b14d60-3a36-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4DXBrpS2A

Senior figures in France, such as Gérard Mestrallet, president of the Europlace lobby group, have already argued that UK-based entities should not be allowed to passport into the EU. They see a chance to boost Paris as a financial centre instead.

Yeah, because (of) France. Precisely because of France, their power and their vested interest in obtaining as much business from the UK as possible. France is not alone in it either, I'm sure Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and others would help, whereas UK is essentially alone.

The finance industry moving is a done deal if A50 is triggered. The only question is how much of it will move and how soon.

McHrozni
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Again, not a single word to justify predicting (no, stronger than that...asserting as fact) a 15% reduction in our GDP as a result of the City losing 75% of its business. Your claim: you justify it.
 
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