Merged Now What?

[GlennB]

They managed to round up enough warm bodies to 'manage' the Greek crisis at the same time last year. The importance of voting in EU crises is overestimated

yes. Greek PM replaced to get their way. Check.

Italian PM replaced to get their way. Check.

it's not like there isn't precedent here.

I don't know what you're talking about. The Greek PM wasn't replaced last summer, nor the Italian. Tsipras and Renzi remain in their jobs today.

Or were you being ironic? That's all I can think of.

 

[cullennz]

Are you going to spam this all day?

No.

It's about midnight so will leave you to gossip about unknowns like a water chiller

 

[lionking]

Are you going to spam this all day?

Indeed. Ignorant spam at that.

 

[Lothian]

ETA.........just for fun, if Boris Johnson is a racist, how come he married someone who is half Indian?

So he could make her miserable by having 3 affairs and children (a child?) out of wedlock.

 

[catsmate]

You mean the UK?

Or the USA.

You will probably lose Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Scotland yes; Norn Iron, not a chance.

Guys. It is done

Feel free to contribute when you've grasped the subtleties of the situation.

 

[lionking]

Scotland yes; Norn Iron, not a chance.

Calls for a referendum are already happening.

 

[cullennz]

It probably will.

Mainly because it is bloody obvious

 

[kevsta]

I don't know what you're talking about. The Greek PM wasn't replaced last summer, nor the Italian. Tsipras and Renzi remain in their jobs today.

Or were you being ironic? That's all I can think of.

I dont believe I said last summer? but nope, not ironic at all.

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/11/european-greece-technocrats

 

[Lothian]

Here is my wildly optimistic predictions that is going to look embarrassingly naive in a minute never mind a month or a years time.

The economic outlook for the UK starts to look bleaker and bleaker as time goes on.
The Tories Struggle to find a new leader. No one wants to be leading the country to the next general election only to be embarrassingly booted out by the electorate.

UKIP disappears as any force when it becomes apparent that they don't agree on anything other than leaving Europe.

Boris is forced, against his better judgement, to take the PM job.

He decides that the "totally unexpected international reaction" to Brexit has caused him to revise his view on the best way forward and these exceptional circumstances require another referendum.

The UK votes to stay in.

 

[Francesca R]

The UK will do a Taylor Swift with the EU quite definitely. (That's "never ever get back together")

Probably

 

[catsmate]

Calls for a referendum are already happening.

In NI? Yes, there are calls. However, primus, they're from Sinn Féin alone; secundus, the SoSNI makes the call and she's already rejected them on the (correct) grounds of absence of dual majority support was required by the GFA; and, ultimus, such a plebiscite would fail.

 

[lionking]

Here is my wildly optimistic predictions that is going to look embarrassingly naive in a minute never mind a month or a years time.

The economic outlook for the UK starts to look bleaker and bleaker as time goes on.
The Tories Struggle to find a new leader. No one wants to be leading the country to the next general election only to be embarrassingly booted out by the electorate.

UKIP disappears as any force when it becomes apparent that they don't agree on anything other than leaving Europe.

Boris is forced, against his better judgement, to take the PM job.

He decides that the "totally unexpected international reaction" to Brexit has caused him to revise his view on the best way forward and these exceptional circumstances require another referendum.

The UK votes to stay in.

This is not a silly prediction.

 

[GlennB]

I dont believe I said last summer? but nope, not ironic at all.

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/11/european-greece-technocrats

No, I referred to last summer, and you responded without clarification of your point. Your article is from 2011, since when Italy and Greece have elected new PMs.

 

[lionking]

In NI? Yes, there are calls. However, primus, they're from Sinn Féin alone; secundus, the SoSNI makes the call and she's already rejected them on the (correct) grounds of absence of dual majority support was required by the GFA; and, ultimus, such a plebiscite would fail.

We will never know it would fail unless it's called.

Would a spike in Northern Irish taking out Republic citizenship change your view? Because this will almost certainly happen.

 

[catsmate]

Here is my wildly optimistic predictions that is going to look embarrassingly naive in a minute never mind a month or a years time.

The economic outlook for the UK starts to look bleaker and bleaker as time goes on.
The Tories Struggle to find a new leader. No one wants to be leading the country to the next general election only to be embarrassingly booted out by the electorate.

UKIP disappears as any force when it becomes apparent that they don't agree on anything other than leaving Europe.

Boris is forced, against his better judgement, to take the PM job.

He decides that the "totally unexpected international reaction" to Brexit has caused him to revise his view on the best way forward and these exceptional circumstances require another referendum.

The UK votes to stay in.

I suspect the Conservatives are now desperately seeking a way out of the morass they've created, perhaps by holding 'Referendum 2: The Sequel' on the basis of a few months of negotiations and the pretense of requiring a public vote on an exist treaty.
However this would require cooperation from the EU and I think that the UK has expended any goodwill and will need to grovel a bit.

As for the consequences of brexit; look for a "readjustment" in property prices in London quite soon, followed by problems (and perhaps the cancellation) of Hinkley Point C and an upsurge in anti-immigrant violence and harassment by the emboldened racist scum.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

Not a chance, IMHO.

The referendum is not legally binding according to the UK constitution (ie parliamentary sovereignty), or so everyone says. Article 50 says:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

If anyone declared the referendum to be such a decision, this would violate the right of the state to make the decision according to its own constitution.

To add to this: I think what might be possible is suspension of membership according to article 7 of TEU. I haven't heard this suggested so far, but it seems like on obvious solution if the UK drags its feet too much.

 

[catsmate]

We will never know it would fail unless it's called.

There is no sign of the necessary support either for an independent NI and certainly not for a unified Ireland.

Would a spike in Northern Irish taking out Republic citizenship change your view? Because this will almost certainly happen.

I'm quite aware of this, I had lunch with a friend who works in Mount Street.

 

[kevsta]

Here is my wildly optimistic predictions that is going to look embarrassingly naive in a minute never mind a month or a years time.

The economic outlook for the UK starts to look bleaker and bleaker as time goes on.
The Tories Struggle to find a new leader. No one wants to be leading the country to the next general election only to be embarrassingly booted out by the electorate.

UKIP disappears as any force when it becomes apparent that they don't agree on anything other than leaving Europe.

Boris is forced, against his better judgement, to take the PM job.

He decides that the "totally unexpected international reaction" to Brexit has caused him to revise his view on the best way forward and these exceptional circumstances require another referendum.

The UK votes to stay in.

yes, something along these lines. perhaps the continual stream of this sort of tripe http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-who-wish-theyd-voted-to-remain-a3280361.html

gets louder and louder until *someone* feels that running on a platform of overturning the referendum before it is enacted becomes viable.

one way or another, I think people are underestimating the political financial and media control the elite have, and I don't see it actually coming to fruition.

I would enjoy being wrong on this, but the playbook isn't exactly new.

 

[GnaGnaMan]

I suspect the Conservatives are now desperately seeking a way out of the morass they've created, perhaps by holding 'Referendum 2: The Sequel' on the basis of a few months of negotiations and the pretense of requiring a public vote on an exist treaty.
However this would require cooperation from the EU and I think that the UK has expended any goodwill and will need to grovel a bit.

Negotiations on an exit treaty will only happen after the UK decides to exit. Then it's: no backsies.

 

[kevsta]

No, I referred to last summer, and you responded without clarification of your point. Your article is from 2011, since when Italy and Greece have elected new PMs.

yes, after being trapped in the status quo by their previous appointees, they were both then allowed the illusion of some choice again afterwards.