Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

[Fast Eddie B]

Whereas Musk calling the Model 3 and Model Y as a single model is OK?

Do you have a cite where he does that?

In all the data I’ve seen supporting the sales of the Model Y, it is clearly separate from the Model 3.

 

[tyr_13]

How is that misleading?

I'm going to suggest (observe) that your knee-jerk attempts to defend Tesla (and Musk) has fueled a massive misreading of what I was talking about.

Model range is the number of models a company makes. It is not driving range.

Toyota makes essentially makes eight versions of the Corolla that have different 'model' designations, with ten more that use the same TNGA-C and engines. These all compete with each other. Tesla has three or four models?

Want to talk about misleading? How about this?

Toyota’s long-range solid-state EV batteries will be more limited than expected
In 2014 they said they would be bringing solid state batteries to market in 2015. In 2017 they said it would be commercialized in 'the early 2020s'. Now they are saying 2027-8. That's 13 years since they first announced it!

And Toyota would have you believe that hydrogen engines are the future - not fuels cells, engines!

Toyota take STUPID to a whole new level.

This is better for the other thread. But I will point out that first, Toyota's fraud around solid state batteries and hydrogen in order to avoid electrification really is stupid, and an own goal. Second, Tesla calculates it's own ranges in ways that are against industry standards and return results way outside what people can expect in the real world (the industry standard is much closer). Third, none of that mitigates Tesla's and Musk's hype.

 

[tyr_13]

From what I've read it's the pedestrian safety stuff they don't have to have in the USA market because of its vehicle class.

It can be a lot of things. So far of the four (or five) things listed, two are realistically doable with the same basic truck.

And it isn't crumple zones or a shape that doesn't murder pedestrians.

But I'm going to suggest that the required testing and public data disclosures would alone do it in.

 

[Puppycow]

Fail.

How is that a fail?

740,561 > 412,180

 

[jadebox]

Whereas Musk calling the Model 3 and Model Y as a single model is OK?

The author of the article only had access to the combined sales for those two models. But that isn't the same as Musk basing his claim on combining the sales (though it may have been a way of Tesla obfuscating the info).

.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I'm going to suggest (observe) that your knee-jerk attempts to defend Tesla (and Musk) has fueled a massive misreading of what I was talking about.

Model range is the number of models a company makes. It is not driving range.

No, that's your massive misreading. Notice how I didn't disagree with your hyperbolic statement about "Tesla's extraordinarily limited model range". Did you think I didn't see the word 'model' in there?

I would not have agreed that the Model Y has an 'extraordinarily limited' driving range, because it doesn't. The standard model Y has a WLTP range of 455 km or 282 miles (a bit better than my Leaf which currently has a range of ~50 miles). The long range version has a WLTP range of 533 km or 331 miles. Theoretically the standard range model could get me from here to Auckland on a single charge, though I would never do that because 6 hours is way too far to go in a single driving session on New Zealand roads. I would make at least 2 stops on the way, just like I did with my gas car (which would barely get there on a tank of petrol).

Telsa's limited model range has already been discussed. Most other car makers have a similar number of electric models or less. Very few have as broad a range as Tesla though, who is sensibly concentrating on producing a definitive model for each segment of the market.

Toyota makes essentially makes eight versions of the Corolla that have different 'model' designations, with ten more that use the same TNGA-C and engines. These all compete with each other. Tesla has three or four models?

You accuse me of 'knee-jerk attempts to defend Tesla' but nothing could be further from the truth. Having seen numerous articles stating that the Model Y is now the most popular car model in the World, it seemed odd that somebody was refuting it. So I had to do a little research. Sure enough the purported refutation was a lie. They didn't even have the right data to draw that conclusion.

You may have had a point about it only being one model, but that was lost when you knee-jerked to my reply. Like it not the popularity of cars is generally based on individual models, not the total number of different models a company makes. I have discussed this before in relation to the Ford F150, which correctly claims to be the 'most popular truck' sold in the US even though other models way outsell it in aggregate. If you think this is misleading then you just don't understand how the market works.

This is better for the other thread. But I will point out that first, Toyota's fraud around solid state batteries and hydrogen in order to avoid electrification really is stupid, and an own goal. Second, Tesla calculates it's own ranges in ways that are against industry standards and return results way outside what people can expect in the real world (the industry standard is much closer). Third, none of that mitigates Tesla's and Musk's hype.

Actually it does. All companies hype their products. This is not a secret - anyone who wasn't born yesterday knows it. So when a company claims to have developed something extraordinary, sensible people take a 'wait and see' attitude. Except in the case of Tesla, where extreme skepticism is followed by excessive nitpicking when the product actually arrives (if it does) or supercilious crowing about how Musk is a fraud (if it doesn't).

Why does Tesla get put under a microscope while other car companies are given a pass? Part of it seems to be pure MDS (Musk Derangement Syndrome). The haters are so desperate to tear him down that they will latch onto anything that supports their view no matter how ludicrous.

Another part is related to electric cars in general - not the technology itself but the implication that people are being 'forced' to adopt it by tree-hugging liberals. Tesla gets the brunt of it because they only make electric cars and have become very successful at it, to the chagrin of all the naysayers who were so sure they wouldn't make it.

It gets worse than that though. A lot of the negativity towards Tesla is coming from people who have a financial reason to see them fail - short sellers, and competitors in the auto industry who hoped EVs would go away so they could continue with Business as Usual.

In fact legacy auto makers have been utterly shocked by what Tesla has achieved. Turns out Tesla was running on a lot more than hype, and now other manufacturers are copying their innovations!

The haters will never admit it though - unlike Jim Farley (CEO of Ford) who tweeted "Congrats, @ElonMusk and @Tesla team" on the release of the Cybertruck. In August Farley went on a road trip in the F-150 Lightning to find out for himself why many customers complained of not getting the expected range and having trouble finding charging stations that worked. He then tweeted:-

"No surprise charging can be a challenge, but still learning a lot seeing firsthand the issues our customers face. This is why we’re working w/ Tesla to provide Ford drivers access to +12,000 superchargers & our EV certified dealers are installing fast chargers at their dealerships. Will help us improve the EV experience for our customers

If only the average anonymous internet poster had the same humility...

 

[Dabop]

It’s only fair to add the company, under his direction, is currently producing the best selling car in the world. Not the best selling EV, but the best selling car.

Seems a bit disingenuous to leave that one little bit off.

Reminds me a little of Reg asking, “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

Not even close- BYD (a chinese EV manufacturer of cars trucks and buses- and I mean real trucks, not that US definition of a ute on steroids) outsells Tesla by a considerable margin- in 2022, Tesla sold a grand total of 1.3 million Teslas worldwide, while BYD sold 1.8 million plugin BEVs in China alone (and they also sell outside China)- hell they have sold over a hundred BEV semi trailer trucks (class 8 as the yanks call them) in the US alone- Tesla's one is still a pipedream....

BYD isn't some newcomer on the scene- they started selling their E6 back in 2009 (commonly seen being used as taxis in China) and sold their first trucks in 2012...- we use their buses in Sydney here in Australia, and have done since 2016... (the 'ElectricBlu' Sydney buses)

 

[tyr_13]

From the Twitter thread, but more appropriate here...

How is that misleading?

Want to talk about misleading? How about this?

Toyota’s long-range solid-state EV batteries will be more limited than expected
In 2014 they said they would be bringing solid state batteries to market in 2015. In 2017 they said it would be commercialized in 'the early 2020s'. Now they are saying 2027-8. That's 13 years since they first announced it!

And Toyota would have you believe that hydrogen engines are the future - not fuels cells, engines!

Toyota take STUPID to a whole new level.

I'm going to suggest (observe) that your knee-jerk attempts to defend Tesla (and Musk) has fueled a massive misreading of what I was talking about.

Model range is the number of models a company makes. It is not driving range.

Toyota makes essentially makes eight versions of the Corolla that have different 'model' designations, with ten more that use the same TNGA-C and engines. These all compete with each other. Tesla has three or four models?



This is better for the other thread. But I will point out that first, Toyota's fraud around solid state batteries and hydrogen in order to avoid electrification really is stupid, and an own goal. Second, Tesla calculates it's own ranges in ways that are against industry standards and return results way outside what people can expect in the real world (the industry standard is much closer). Third, none of that mitigates Tesla's and Musk's hype.

No, that's your massive misreading. Notice how I didn't disagree with your hyperbolic statement about "Tesla's extraordinarily limited model range".

There is zero hyperbole in that statement. A major car company that has four models is an extraordinarily limited range.

Did you think I didn't see the word 'model' in there?

Absolutely. But if you want to argue as you now do that your reply was a non-sequitur diving into driving range as a flimsy deflection from the actual point being discussed, I won't object.

I would not have agreed that the Model Y has an 'extraordinarily limited' driving range, because it doesn't. The standard model Y has a WLTP range of 455 km or 282 miles (a bit better than my Leaf which currently has a range of ~50 miles). The long range version has a WLTP range of 533 km or 331 miles. Theoretically the standard range model could get me from here to Auckland on a single charge, though I would never do that because 6 hours is way too far to go in a single driving session on New Zealand roads. I would make at least 2 stops on the way, just like I did with my gas car (which would barely get there on a tank of petrol).

Oh look, you're doing it again. This totally doesn't look like kneejerk fanboying.

Telsa's limited model range has already been discussed. Most other car makers have a similar number of electric models or less. Very few have as broad a range as Tesla though, who is sensibly concentrating on producing a definitive model for each segment of the market.

Which is irrelevant to the point under discussion.

You accuse me of 'knee-jerk attempts to defend Tesla' but nothing could be further from the truth. Having seen numerous articles stating that the Model Y is now the most popular car model in the World, it seemed odd that somebody was refuting it. So I had to do a little research. Sure enough the purported refutation was a lie. They didn't even have the right data to draw that conclusion.

Well since you've read so many articles we should take your word for it! You're again ignoring the point being discussed.

You may have had a point about it only being one model, but that was lost when you knee-jerked to my reply.

The phrase 'knee jerk' really got to you, huh?

Like it not the popularity of cars is generally based on individual models, not the total number of different models a company makes. I have discussed this before in relation to the Ford F150, which correctly claims to be the 'most popular truck' sold in the US even though other models way outsell it in aggregate. If you think this is misleading then you just don't understand how the market works.

The F-series numbers are misleading, and I know that because I know how the market works!

The F-Series numbers are misleading because GMC splits up it's full sized pickup segment into three different 'models' over two different badges while having identical mechanicals. A Sierra and a Hummer Pickup are Silveradoes with different bodies. It's not meaningful when if GM wanted to, they could make them the same 'model' named 'C/K (this is what the series used to be named) A, B, and C' and suddenly they're the best selling 'single model' pickup (with 39% of the market share by the way against the F-Series 35%). This is the same way Toyota could rename all the Corrola models 'Corrola A, B, C, D, E, F, G, and H', and then they would be the 'single best' selling vehicle on earth.

EDIT: This works the other way too; if Ford renamed the F-350 'The Brigade', would the F-Series suddenly not count as the 'the best selling pickup'?

It's not credible that you have the grasp of the vehicle market and the unbiased skepticism of their marketing you claim to have and at the same time not understand this. You want to call them on their marketing BS while leaning on marketing BS.

Actually it does. All companies hype their products. This is not a secret - anyone who wasn't born yesterday knows it. So when a company claims to have developed something extraordinary, sensible people take a 'wait and see' attitude. Except in the case of Tesla, where extreme skepticism is followed by excessive nitpicking when the product actually arrives (if it does) or supercilious crowing about how Musk is a fraud (if it doesn't).

Why does Tesla get put under a microscope while other car companies are given a pass? Part of it seems to be pure MDS (Musk Derangement Syndrome). The haters are so desperate to tear him down that they will latch onto anything that supports their view no matter how ludicrous.

This is pure cope. No, other car makers being bad about things isn't a defense of Tesla nor of Musk. 'Everyone commits fraud!' is a savage indictment of our regulatory shortcomings, not a defense of any of them. VW is still rightly condemned for their emission cheating even though others also cheated those tests, to much lesser degrees. Suddenly you can't be critical of Tesla if you're not also condemning every bad action in the motor vehicle market ever. Pull the other one.

The same 'leveling' is how people excuse bad actions from people like Trump, right down to the feeble 'haters/derangement syndrome' well poisoning. 'They're all just as bad, they all do it'. Yeah, they all do it, but they aren't all just as bad and that doesn't make any of it acceptable.

Another part is related to electric cars in general - not the technology itself but the implication that people are being 'forced' to adopt it by tree-hugging liberals. Tesla gets the brunt of it because they only make electric cars and have become very successful at it, to the chagrin of all the naysayers who were so sure they wouldn't make it.

It gets worse than that though. A lot of the negativity towards Tesla is coming from people who have a financial reason to see them fail - short sellers, and competitors in the auto industry who hoped EVs would go away so they could continue with Business as Usual.

In fact legacy auto makers have been utterly shocked by what Tesla has achieved. Turns out Tesla was running on a lot more than hype, and now other manufacturers are copying their innovations!

The haters will never admit it though - unlike Jim Farley (CEO of Ford) who tweeted "Congrats, @ElonMusk and @Tesla team" on the release of the Cybertruck. In August Farley went on a road trip in the F-150 Lightning to find out for himself why many customers complained of not getting the expected range and having trouble finding charging stations that worked. He then tweeted:- If only the average anonymous internet poster had the same humility...

Yes yes, everyone critical of Tesla or Musk is a 'hater'.

The fact that you can't even accept people agreeing with the true point that they have the best selling EV but pointing out that the 'best selling car of all' is misleading and needs context is just damning. If you can't engage in the actual points being discussed talking about battery range and calling people haters isn't going to convince anyone.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

There is zero hyperbole in that statement. A major car company that has four models is an extraordinarily limited range.

It’s a tactic that’s worked pretty well so far. Roadster, S, X, 3, Y. A few more to come.

I think back to when Steve Jobs returned to Apple. Their Mac line was a confusing plethora of choices under several different monikers. Jobs sliced the product line down to just several models, and it rejuvenated the company - among other things, of course.

In this case as well, I suspect the “extraordinarily limited range” is a choice. And likely a wise choice at that.

 

[tyr_13]

It’s a tactic that’s worked pretty well so far. Roadster, S, X, 3, Y. A few more to come.

I think back to when Steve Jobs returned to Apple. Their Mac line was a confusing plethora of choices under several different monikers. Jobs sliced the product line down to just several models, and it rejuvenated the company - among other things, of course.

In this case as well, I suspect the “extraordinarily limited range” is a choice. And likely a wise choice at that.

I disagree that it's a choice, but I could be wrong on that. After all, there are eight models that have yet to be released (some promised for many, many years now). None of it changes the fact that it is a major factor in things like how important titles 'single best selling model' are. It also doesn't make my statement in any way hyperbole.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I disagree that it's a choice, but I could be wrong on that. After all, there are eight models that have yet to be released (some promised for many, many years now). None of it changes the fact that it is a major factor in things like how important titles 'single best selling model' are. It also doesn't make my statement in any way hyperbole.

I don’t actually remember what was allegedly hyperbole, or who accused you of it.

Regardless, I just thought of Ford’s model lineup. They once had a huge number of sedans. I think they now have one - the Mustang - at least in the U.S. Too many choices can lead to consumer confusion and production inefficiencies - think of the same basic car being sold as a Ford and a Mercury. A limited model line can also be viewed as a focused model line.

 

[a_unique_person]

On the fraud claim, the best I can find is that he settled with the SEC over a fraud charge at Tesla, without admitting guilt. Since the settlement included structural changes to Tesla's governance, the SEC probably preferred it over a conviction. He was also sued by Tesla's investors for fraud, apparently over the same allegations that the SEC brought. But he won that lawsuit, and was found not guilty.



Make of that mixed message what you will. What I make of it, in this context, is that the Musk-hate is special pleading. It is absolutely bog standard corporate gamesmanship to color outside the lines until caught, and then settle with the regulators before going back to all the other ways you haven't yet been caught coloring outside the lines. Musk is not a notable supervillain in this regard.



I think the real reason people hate Musk is the same reason people who hate celebrities hate celebrities: Because they're celebrities.

I think it's actually his self delusional thinking that leads him to think he is a super genius. He comes up with a lot of stupid ideas his employees have to work around.


Thunderf00t has plenty of examples of Musk boasting about himself or claiming that something is really simple when he's just lying. Thunderf00t goes too far but the videos don't lie.

 

[dirtywick]

it's obviously much more than that he's a celebrity. that's the reason why i know so much about him

you could list dozens of things he's said and done that are bad, it's easy and there's plenty to choose from to where you can excuse some of it, like his various frauds or the way he conducts his business or treats his employees. and you can say, oh well that wasn't illegal so it's fine or it's standard industry conduct. but i can still have a problem with it because it's an ******* thing to do, like him combing through twitter emails and firing critics in retaliation or publicly smearing former employees. i can have a problem with the way he treats his employees and the safety conditions of his plant. i can a have problem with the way he hides his money from taxes while i'm paying my share.

and i don't even want to get into his personal opinions and conduct that he broadcasts to the world. and i don't think smoking a joint with joe rogan and saying the f word on tv and posting memes on twitter is cute.

and i can make this really long list and someone somewhere could excuse all of it. but i will say when it comes to reasons why the haters should like him, once you point out he owns a couple of successful companies the list is pretty short

 

[jeremyp]

As i have explained before, turnaround times. Given how quickly they can reuse the rockets, there's simply no possible way that they aren't launching for much less cost than their competitors.

That's not evidence that the rocket launches are profitable. Evidence would be the accounts, which we don't get to see.

 

[Ziggurat]

That's not evidence that the rocket launches are profitable. Evidence would be the accounts, which we don't get to see.

Accounts would be proof. This is absolutely still evidence. Again, if you don't understand why turnaround time is VERY STRONG evidence, then you don't understand the economics of rockets. There's a reason everyone is trying to do reusable rockets now. There's no point in even designing another rocket that's not reusable. Nothing else can possibly compete.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Not even close- BYD (a chinese EV manufacturer of cars trucks and buses- and I mean real trucks, not that US definition of a ute on steroids) outsells Tesla by a considerable margin- in 2022, Tesla sold a grand total of 1.3 million Teslas worldwide, while BYD sold 1.8 million plugin BEVs in China alone (and they also sell outside China)- hell they have sold over a hundred BEV semi trailer trucks (class 8 as the yanks call them) in the US alone- Tesla's one is still a pipedream....

The assertion was that the Model Y was the best selling car model. Does BYD have a single model that outsells the Y?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

i don't think smoking a joint with joe rogan and saying the f word on tv and posting memes on twitter is cute.

I'm with you bro.

Smoking is bad and should be banned. All drugs too. And the filth that the media is permitted to broadcast today is disgusting. The moment I heard the f word coming out of Musk's mouth my opinion of him dropped like a ******* rock.

As for posting memes on Twitter, that's not what the platform was meant to be for at all...

"Twitter all began with status-sharing service TXTmob," explains an article on TNW. Tad Hirsch, a student and activist associated with the Ruckus Society, the Institute for Applied Autonomy, and later the MIT Media Lab, built the basic first application to help activists organize protests at the 2004 Republican National Convention.

Inspired by TXTmob and other SMS sharing applications of the day, members of the podcasting company Odeo had an "all-day brainstorming session" to decide on building a new application...

...we came across the word "twitter", and it was just perfect. The definition was "a short burst of inconsequential information", and "chirps from birds". And that's exactly what the product was.

 

[dirtywick]

I'm with you bro.

Smoking is bad and should be banned. All drugs too. And the filth that the media is permitted to broadcast today is disgusting. The moment I heard the f word coming out of Musk's mouth my opinion of him dropped like a ******* rock.

As for posting memes on Twitter, that's not what the platform was meant to be for at all...

lol are you trying to refute that i don't think he's a cool guy? wtf he's a cornball

 

[Dabop]

The assertion was that the Model Y was the best selling car model. Does BYD have a single model that outsells the Y?

Actually the assertion was that the Tesla was the best selling CAR, not EV- and that too is incorrect...

It’s only fair to add the company, under his direction, is currently producing the best selling car in the world. Not the best selling EV, but the best selling car.

Seems a bit disingenuous to leave that one little bit off.

Reminds me a little of Reg asking, “What have the Romans ever done for us?”.

Toyota Corollas outsold the Tesla Y worldwide in 2022 by a considerable margin (1.12 million to 760000- approaching nearly double the sales)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/239229/most-sold-car-models-worldwide/

Even their total production for the year of all models (which they didn't actually sell all of them) was only just above the Corolla alone, and less than the Corolla and Camry combined... (total Teslas 1.36 million made, 1.3 million sold, Toyota Camry and Corolla combined (ignoring their many other models) 1.8 million...)

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/brands/2022-full-year-global-tesla-car-sales-worldwide/

BYD sold a total of 1.8 million cars for the year, against Teslas 1.3 million (also remembering that BYD make a much larger range of BEVs, from cars, SUVs, commercial vans, light trucks, heavy trucks, semi trailers and buses

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306233/total-vehicle-sales-byd-by-type/

Tesla are still currently only selling cars (and that ute thing)- no commercial vans, no light or heavy trucks, no buses and the semi might be years away (if ever) while BYD has their semi is available now, and has sold over 100 in the USA alone...

(that Budweiser semi was the 100th sold in the US)

 

[Roger Ramjets]

There is zero hyperbole in that statement. A major car company that has four models is an extraordinarily limited range.

Yes, it's hyperbole. Even if we include gas cars, there are plenty of other manufacturers who don't have vastly more models.

Take Mazda for example, the top selling car brand in New Zealand in 2021 with 72127 units sold (4 times more than Toyota, the next most popular). They offer a total of 11 models in New Zealand, including 1 (one) EV.

BYD has 3 models (all electric).

GWM has 6 models, including 1 (one) EV.

Mitsubishi has 8 models, including 2 PHEVs (but no pure EVs).

MG have 8 models, including 3 EVs.

Honda has 5 models (no EVs)

Subaru has 6 models (no EVs)

Renault have 6 models currently available, including 1 (one) EV.

The F-Series numbers are misleading because GMC splits up it's full sized pickup segment into three different 'models' over two different badges while having identical mechanicals.

That's not misleading. Like I said you just don't understand the market.

Many car makers have developed an EV 'platform' that is shared between many models. Some are even shared between manufacturers, eg. Kia and Hyundai. Tesla doesn't do that - every model is innovative. But whether a particular model is truly unique or just a 'skin' on top of a common 'mechanism' is irrelevant to the buyer, who is looking for particular features including styling. They don't care if the 'mechanics' are largely the same (after all how different can they be?).

This reminds me of the first new car my parents bought back in the 1970's, a Vauxhall Viva Estate. In those days cars sold in New Zealand had to be 'manufactured' here, which generally meant assembled from parts made in the UK. The left hand door on our car didn't fit properly because it was from the wrong model!

Manufacturers have different model names for a reason - so customers can differentiate between them and make it easier to identify the features they want. But even quite different models often share many of the same parts, for obvious reasons.

Are Audi and Volkswagen Parts the Same?

If you are looking for Audi or Volkswagen parts, you may be wondering whether the two have the same parts. After all, Volkswagen and Audi vehicles are made by the same company, VAG, so it's logical to assume they would use similar parts.

The short answer is yes, a lot of parts used on both Volkswagens and Audis are the same.

Typically, this is the case with mechanical parts, and small electronics like window switches and buttons.

Engines are typically used between VW and Audi models, with the exception of some Audi RS models and V8 or I5 engine versions which tend to have specific engines that VW models don't. Most of the 4 cylinder stuff however, is the same.

You'll also find that a lot of suspension and drivetrain components are shared between the two. Often transmissions, especially on FWD versions, are the same across Audi and VW.

Most of the time, you will also find that wheels from an Audi will fit on a VW, and vice versa. So if you are ever in a pinch and you need a spare, you can always look to the other brand and expand your options.

Which Parts Do Audi and VW Not Share?

When it comes to parts they don't share, you will typically find that model specific parts such as body panels and exterior lights, as well as glass is usually specific to the model.

Interior parts also tend to be different, with seats, door panels and dashboards usually being specific to the particular car.

Despite this, nobody is suggesting that most VW and Audi models should be lumped together as one in determining their popularity. Audi owners might be particularly miffed at suggestions that they are really driving a Volkswagen.