Split Thread Michael Brown and Katrina

[Crossbow]

You know who did have buses? School buses? By the hundreds? And chose to let them sit in a parking lot and be flooded?

If you guessed New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, then you can have any prize from the top shelf!

I think what happened with the buses was that New Orleans had the buses, but not the bus drivers. After all, this was the time when even police officers were tossing away their badges and uniforms in order to leave the area, therefore one should not be surprised when the bus drivers bugged out as well.

Also, at least Nagin was on the job at the time while that stupid, idiotic, liar George W. Bush was on his vacation and fund raising with his guitar at the time.

 

[Ladewig]

Criminal negligence is a legal term with a very specific standard.

Being negligent and having people die does not, in and of itself, rise to the standard.

At the moment, I am too lazy to look up the statutes.

 

[RandFan]

I think what happened with the buses was that New Orleans had the buses, but not the bus drivers. After all, this was the time when even police officers were tossing away their badges and uniforms in order to leave the area, therefore one should not be surprised when the bus drivers bugged out as well.

Also, at least Nagin was on the job at the time while that stupid, idiotic, liar George W. Bush was on his vacation and fund raising with his guitar at the time.

A FEMA plan should have included plans for evacuation (something they are specifically instructed to do).

Mass Evacuation Incident Annex - FEMA

Purpose
The Mass Evacuation Incident Annex to the National Response Framework (NRF) provides an overview of mass evacuation functions, agency roles and responsibilities, and overall guidelines for the integration of Federal, State, tribal, and local support in the evacuation of large numbers of people in incidents requiring a coordinated Federal response.

Scope

This annex:

• Establishes the criteria under which Federal support to mass evacuations is provided.
• Provides a concept of operations for Federal-level mass evacuation support.
• Identifies the agencies and or ganizations involved in a federally supported mass evacuation.
• Defines the roles and responsibilities of Federal entities in planning, preparing for, and conducting mass evacuations in support of State, tribal, and local authorities.
• Identifies guidelines to improve coordination among Federal, State, tribal, and local authorities when Federal evacuation support is required.

How well do you think FEMA did in planning, preparation and execution for mass evacuation?

 

[RandFan]

Criminal negligence is a legal term with a very specific standard.

Being negligent and having people die does not, in and of itself, rise to the standard.

At the moment, I am too lazy to look up the statutes.

This wasn't the argument that I made. Let me try again.

• Brown had responsibility for people's lives.
• Brown failed to act knowing that lives were at significant risk thus meeting the standard for actus reus.
• Brown knew the risk of a hurricane to NO and he knew there was a high propability of a direct hit on NO, thus meeting the standard for mens rea.

Given that Brown tried to warn Bush that the threat was real and he needed more resources (as if he had no authority to act on his own), then, IMO, he does not meet the standard for depraved indifference (I accused Brown of such but I was wrong).

Now, INAL, I might very well be out to lunch (wouldn't be the first time). But let's focus on my argument.

 

[sunmaster14]

Ray Nagin's has his share of culpability in this, but he is far from being the only person to blame. FEMA's failures effected much more than NO. Other states got hit you know.

Remember that FEMA is there so that local governmental failures don't result in weeks of power losses, deaths, and poor rescue and recovery efforts.

I think the order of blame goes something like this:

Bad luck > 30 years of malfeasance by the state of LA > army corps of engineers > Mayor Nagin > Governor Blanco > FEMA as an institution > Director Brown > President Bush

Brown got a terrible rap from the media, I think mostly because of the situation at the Superdome and the fact that Brown wasn't focused on it even though it was getting 24/7 coverage on the news networks. Of course, the stories about the Superdome making it seem like something out of Lord of the Flies were ridiculously exaggerated.

It's still unclear to me what Brown did or didn't do that was so bad. Inevitably there will be screwups or inefficiencies, and especially when you have a catastrophe that big, the media will be able to find lots of examples.

 

[davefoc]

This wasn't the argument that I made. Let me try again.

• Brown had responsibility for people's lives.
• Brown failed to act knowing that lives were at significant risk thus meeting the standard for actus reus.
• Brown knew the risk of a hurricane to NO and he knew there was a high propability of a direct hit on NO, thus meeting the standard for mens rea.

Given that Brown tried to warn Bush that the threat was real and he needed more resources (as if he had no authority to act on his own), then, IMO, he does not meet the standard for depraved indifference (I accused Brown of such but I was wrong).

Now, INAL, I might very well be out to lunch (wouldn't be the first time). But let's focus on my argument.

The issues as I see it:
1. Was Brown criminally negligent?
2. Was Brown criminally negligent in a way that a prosecution would have been successful
3. Was Brown guilty of corruption that contributed to the problem
4. Were Brown's actions driven by the White House in such a way that he was not guilty of any wrong doing?

The answers
1. Probably
2. Probably not. The Katrina response failures were well distributed across various bureaucracies and pinning Brown to specific wrong doings that caused the problems might not have been possible. In addition, any prosecution of Brown would have led to the White House and that would have made any case against Brown particularly difficult to prosecute.
3. Probably, but in a way that is fairly typical of government bureaucracies. He gave priority to politically connected companies but that doesn't mean he intentionally hired companies that couldn't do the job. But any excuses around the bus contracts look pretty thin, so maybe they could have prosecuted him there for some corruption, but again that would probably have led to the White House and that would have made a prosecution very difficult.
4. White House corruption and incompetence would have been a mitigating factor in any prosecution of Brown, but we'll never no to what degree.

 

[RandFan]

It's still unclear to me what Brown did or didn't do that was so bad.

He didn't follow the policies of his agency. He didn't plan for a mass evacuation. He didn't prepare for a mass evacuation.

I've posted the relevant links. I've explained how failing to plan, prepare and execute an evacuation plan was part of Brown's responsibilities. Where's the confusion?

 

[sunmaster14]

That was a lie. Not a mistake but a willful lie.

Video shows Bush got explicit Katrina warning

Not a lie or even a mistake. They were concerned about overtopping of the levees, which is not the same thing as breaching of the levees. Do you know the difference? Actually, that NBC news video makes Bush look pretty good.

 

[RandFan]

The issues as I see it:
1. Was Brown criminally negligent?
2. Was Brown criminally negligent in a way that a prosecution would have been successful
3. Was Brown guilty of corruption that contributed to the problem
4. Were Brown's actions driven by the White House in such a way that he was not guilty of any wrong doing?

The answers
1. Probably
2. Probably not. The Katrina response failures were well distributed across various bureaucracies and pinning Brown to specific wrong doings that caused the problems might not have been possible. In addition, any prosecution of Brown would have led to the White House and that would have made any case against Brown particularly difficult to prosecute.
3. Probably, but in a way that is fairly typical of government bureaucracies. He gave priority to politically connected companies but that doesn't mean he intentionally hired companies that couldn't do the job. But any excuses around the bus contracts look pretty thin, so maybe they could have prosecuted him there for some corruption, but again that would probably have led to the White House and that would have made a prosecution very difficult.
4. White House corruption and incompetence would have been a mitigating factor in any prosecution of Brown, but we'll never no to what degree.

I accept all of your premises. Including #2 which I think you make a very compelling argument for. Thanks.

 

[sunmaster14]

He didn't follow the policies of his agency. He didn't plan for a mass evacuation. He didn't prepare for a mass evacuation.

I've posted the relevant links. I've explained how failing to plan, prepare and execute an evacuation plan was part of Brown's responsibilities. Where's the confusion?

You've done no such thing. Your links don't show what you claim they show. I don't think you even read your own stuff.

 

[RandFan]

Not a lie or even a mistake. They were concerned about overtopping of the levees, which is not the same thing as breaching of the levees. Do you know the difference?

I understand the technical difference when it comes to Dams. Perhaps the difference is substantive but here's the problem, both would result in the same catastrophe. The point wasn't "how" the danger would occur precisely. The point was that levees were a weak link.

So, in all sincerity, I would like to hear how the differences between overtopping and breach are significant here? Did they fail to account for a breach? Did the FEMA model predict against a breach?

 

[RandFan]

Your links don't show what you claim they show.

Could you provide an example and not simply make an assertion?

 

[RandFan]

I claim that the Mass Evacuation Index Annex provides explicit responsibilities for FEMA to provide mass evacuation in the event of a disaster.

How is that wrong?

A FEMA plan should have included plans for evacuation (something they are specifically instructed to do).

Mass Evacuation Incident Annex - FEMA

Purpose
The Mass Evacuation Incident Annex to the National Response Framework (NRF) provides an overview of mass evacuation functions, agency roles and responsibilities, and overall guidelines for the integration of Federal, State, tribal, and local support in the evacuation of large numbers of people in incidents requiring a coordinated Federal response.

Scope

This annex:

• Establishes the criteria under which Federal support to mass evacuations is provided.
• Provides a concept of operations for Federal-level mass evacuation support.
• Identifies the agencies and or ganizations involved in a federally supported mass evacuation.
• Defines the roles and responsibilities of Federal entities in planning, preparing for, and conducting mass evacuations in support of State, tribal, and local authorities.
• Identifies guidelines to improve coordination among Federal, State, tribal, and local authorities when Federal evacuation support is required.

How well do you think FEMA did in planning, preparation and execution for mass evacuation?

 

[sunmaster14]

I understand the technical difference when it comes to Dams. Perhaps the difference is substantive but here's the problem, both would result in the same catastrophe. The point wasn't "how" the danger would occur precisely. The point was that levees were a weak link.

So, in all sincerity, I would like to hear how the differences between overtopping and breach are significant here? Did they fail to account for a breach? Did the FEMA model predict against a breach?

Overtopping happens when the storm surge brings the water level above the top of the levee. Water pours over the levee and gets into the city, where it remains until it is either pumped out or is absorbed into the ground (or evaporates). This can cause a lot of damage, but it is not catastrophic. New Orleans has huge pumps which presumably are used to pump out rain water, so a little bit of overtopping could probably be accommodated rather easily (although any roads or houses near the levees would be waterlogged). A breach means that the levee literally falls apart in a spot, which then widens as water rushes in. This results in the water level inside the city equalizing with the sea level outside within a matter of hours. You're probably talking at least 1,000 times more water in a breach than an overtopping. On top of that, it's impossible to pump the water out until the breach is repaired.

ETA: To answer your other questions, I think that nobody thought a breach was going to happen. It really shouldn't have. The levee was supposed to withstand a Category 4 hurricane, and I think Katrina was only Category 3 when it hit New Orleans.

ETAM: The wiki link.

The primary mechanisms of failure at the 17th Street Canal, London Avenue Canal and Industrial Canal (east side north) were improper design.[9] The failure mechanism for the Industrial Canal (east side south and west side) was overtopping of levees and floodwalls by the storm surge. The primary mechanism of failure for levees protecting eastern New Orleans was the existence of sand in 10% of places instead of thick Louisiana clay. The primary mechanism of failure for the levees protecting St. Bernard Parish was overtopping due to negligent maintenance[10] of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a navigation channel, by the Corps of Engineers.

A June 2006 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers in peer review panel concluded that the flooding in the Lakeview neighborhood (from the 17th Street Canal) and the Gentilly neighborhood (from the London Avenue Canal) was due to two engineering oversights.

The engineers responsible for the design of the canal levees and the I-walls embedded in them overestimated the soil strength, meaning that the soil strength used in the design calculations was greater than what actually existed under and near the levee during Hurricane Katrina. They made unconservative (i.e., erring toward unsafe) interpretations of the data: the soil below the levee was actually weaker than that used in the I-wall design (ASCE: External Review Panel, pg 48). Another critical engineering oversight that led to the failure of the 17th Street Canal involves not taking into account the possibility of a water-filled gap which turned out to be a very important aspect of the failures of the I-walls around New Orleans. “Analysis indicate that, with the presence of a water-filled gap, the factor of safety is about 30 percent lower. Because a factor of safety of 1.3 was used for design, a reduction of 30 percent would reduce the factor of safety to approximately one: a condition of incipient failure.” (ASCE: External Review Panel, pg 51)[11]

 

[sunmaster14]

I claim that the Mass Evacuation Index Annex provides explicit responsibilities for FEMA to provide mass evacuation in the event of a disaster.

How is that wrong?

Well, for starters, it was written post-Katrina. On top of that, how do you know that there wasn't a Mass Evacuation plan designed by FEMA in coordination with state and local authorities which was screwed up by local authorities when it came time to implement it? FEMA doesn't just ride in with a thousand bus drivers. They're supposed to be called up by the city and state governments.

 

[Random]

Well, for starters, it was written post-Katrina. On top of that, how do you know that there wasn't a Mass Evacuation plan designed by FEMA in coordination with state and local authorities which was screwed up by local authorities when it came time to implement it? FEMA doesn't just ride in with a thousand bus drivers. They're supposed to be called up by the city and state governments.

Did anyone in the Bush administration even claim that they had a Mass Evacuation plan that was screwed up by state and local authorities? There was a lot of finger pointing to be sure, but I didn't see Karl Rove holding up a binder saying "This is what we told the Dems in New Orleans to do!"

 

[kookbreaker]

Brown has taken zero responsibility for his mismanagement, and claims his only mistake was not knowing that NO could be dysfunctional (in short, he ftried to blame others). He then gets snippy whenever someone shows how the job of disaster management is properly done (see my link above).

 

[sunmaster14]

Did anyone in the Bush administration even claim that they had a Mass Evacuation plan that was screwed up by state and local authorities? There was a lot of finger pointing to be sure, but I didn't see Karl Rove holding up a binder saying "This is what we told the Dems in New Orleans to do!"

Here's an NPR story about the evacuation plan.

SULLIVAN: The plan says the buses would drive two hours north of the city, past a highway called I-12. But a day before the hurricane struck, the city veered from that plan. The roads were clogged with traffic from the million people evacuating on their own. So down at the city's Office of Emergency Preparedness, Councilwoman Hedge-Morrell says officials made a decision: Better avoid the traffic and send the people on the buses somewhere closer to wait out the storm.

Ms. HEDGE-MORRELL: What we figured at that point--the city made a decision--the Office of Emergency Preparedness made a decision that rather than try to get stuck in that traffic evacuating these people, they brought them to the Superdome. But the intention was that as soon as Katrina passed, they were going to bus them to shelters past I-12.

SULLIVAN: That decision quickly became a critical mistake and turned the Superdome, the city's shelter of last resort, into a refuge for everyone. Then after the storm, when the levees broke, thousands more came. And the city buses, meant to take them to proper shelters, were underwater.

As for why George Bush didn't defend himself? Dunno. Maybe he thought it was unseemly to be pointing fingers during a time of crisis. And when the crisis was over, it was too late to change people's minds.

 

[RandFan]

Well, for starters, it was written post-Katrina.

I'll concede the point though there were evacuation policies prior. I'm not able to find them at the moment.

On top of that, how do you know that there wasn't a Mass Evacuation plan designed by FEMA in coordination with state and local authorities which was screwed up by local authorities when it came time to implement it? FEMA doesn't just ride in with a thousand bus drivers. They're supposed to be called up by the city and state governments.

Do you have something to support your claim? I'm not denying the claim I'm just not able to find support for it at the moment.

 

[sunmaster14]

Brown has taken zero responsibility for his mismanagement, and claims his only mistake was not knowing that NO could be dysfunctional (in short, he ftried to blame others). He then gets snippy whenever someone shows how the job of disaster management is properly done (see my link above).

I suppose the idea that he was criticized unfairly and actually didn't do a bad job hasn't crossed your mind? Katrina was not only far, far more damaging than Sandy, but it actually hit relatively wealthy states with relatively competent government. Chris Christie, for example, had people evacuated from the shore under pain of arrest.

Even so, there have been plenty of complaints about the job FEMA has done in the aftermath of Sandy. You just don't see the media reporting them as prominently. In part it's due to partisan bias; and in part it's due to the media having nothing as gripping as 20,000 people stranded in the Superdome without working plumbing.