Just Another Magic Trick?

[Kuko 4000]

Tapman, don't you realise that many, if not all, contributing to this thread would be delighted if the MDC was won as it would constitute a previously unknown or unproven branch of science? If the rules were unfair they would have been torn apart by forum members long ago.

Exactly, I would be absolutely thrilled to witness something paranormal in my lifetime.

 

[Rasmus]

Oh please!

There still hasn't been a single word on how the tests are rigged. We are now down to "I simply don't trust him!", and all the elaborate dancing around randomly selected scientists don't do a thing to support the idea that the tests are in any way unfair, let alone unbeatable, as they are now.

Again: Please show us how exactly the tests are rigged. Pointing out that if Randi designs the test he could design something into the protocols isn't enough.

 

[petre]

Best question so far. Thank you. Really got me thinking.

I think there should be a pool of say 100 scientists that are familiar with things paranormal. They (the pool of 100) should be chosen by the quality of their methods for testing by other scientist that don't have any connection with things paranormal, but are well versed in testing methods.

They (the pool of 100)should come up with an acceptable standard of what percentage of right or wrong answers constitutes that the person being tested (the testee... couldn't help myself) is actually psychic. The standard should be far above chance, and mutually agreeable (by the pool of 100)that a degree of correct answers of this magnitude would be considered psychic.

When a subject is to be tested, this pool of 100 scientists names should be put in to a lottery ball type machine(the type you see in bingo perhaps), and ten of them will be randomly picked by the lottery ball machine with the oversight of both Randi and the subject, and anyone else that wants to bear witness.

This final ten will then get together and formulate a test that is agreed on by all ten members that will test the subject. Not what a magician thinks, or even a crazy claimant, but actual scientists.

The test and data collected by the testers will be watched over by a panel of scientists that are not related to the test, or anything paranormal. Just a groop that is an overseer.

The test will also be given to ten other randomly picked people to make sure the results are well below that of the self proclaimed psychic.

If the results are agreed upon by the ten scientists to prove "ability" the million is awarded.

This could all be easily financed by the interest from the million $.


A test like this couldn't be refuted by anyone ever. A crazy psychic, or a magician. Every one picked at random, double blind, you know real sciency type stuff. Not a magician creating an llusion.

Just a thought

Curious, you believe the best way to make the test more fair is to remove the claimants entirely from the discussion in deciding how the test of their own ability would be conducted? Do they even consult applicants first, or do they just pick an ability at random? "You're gonna get tested for levitatation." "Dang, I was hoping for remote viewing."

I am perhaps being a bit unfair. Allow me to lower the bar as much as I can imagine in order to promote positive discussion, and give your idea the maximum possible chance to demonstrate an improvement over the way the challenge is currently run. Select any challenge applicant or potential applicant (you can find threads for many of these in the Challenge Applications subforum) and describe how the above process would have been applied to it, and how the end result would have better furthered the stated purpose of the JREF.

 

[Kuko 4000]

To tapman,

I can't edit my earlier post anymore, but here's something I forgot to add:

If, on the other hand, you trust your pool of scientists to know their stuff at least as well as Randi, would you accept a test designed by Randi and his team but approved by the pool of scientists you had in mind?

OR, if the test was designed by the pool of scientists and approved by Randi?

 

[Hokulele]

Best question so far. Thank you. Really got me thinking.

I think there should be a pool of say 100 scientists that are familiar with things paranormal. They (the pool of 100) should be chosen by the quality of their methods for testing by other scientist that don't have any connection with things paranormal, but are well versed in testing methods.

They (the pool of 100)should come up with an acceptable standard of what percentage of right or wrong answers constitutes that the person being tested (the testee... couldn't help myself) is actually psychic. The standard should be far above chance, and mutually agreeable (by the pool of 100)that a degree of correct answers of this magnitude would be considered psychic.

When a subject is to be tested, this pool of 100 scientists names should be put in to a lottery ball type machine(the type you see in bingo perhaps), and ten of them will be randomly picked by the lottery ball machine with the oversight of both Randi and the subject, and anyone else that wants to bear witness.

This final ten will then get together and formulate a test that is agreed on by all ten members that will test the subject. Not what a magician thinks, or even a crazy claimant, but actual scientists.

The test and data collected by the testers will be watched over by a panel of scientists that are not related to the test, or anything paranormal. Just a groop that is an overseer.

The test will also be given to ten other randomly picked people to make sure the results are well below that of the self proclaimed psychic.

If the results are agreed upon by the ten scientists to prove "ability" the million is awarded.

This could all be easily financed by the interest from the million $.


A test like this couldn't be refuted by anyone ever. A crazy psychic, or a magician. Every one picked at random, double blind, you know real sciency type stuff. Not a magician creating an llusion.

Just a thought

The way the Challenge is worded, you could present this as part of the protocol, and depending on how it was implented, it could very well be accepted. The testing protocol is agreed upon by both parties, not just the JREF.

Sure I do Hoke. Debate term. However, if you are claiming someone is playing the strawman, or being a strawman, you will need to prove it in some way to make it acceptable in a debate or otherwise it is insignificant.

No, I don't think you do understand. A person does not play and cannot be a strawman. In debating, a strawman is an easily rebutted caricature of a real point in use. Wikipedia explains it very well.

Nice to hear from you Hokulele.

Likewise.

 

[Almo]

There are numerous posters on these forums who have a lot of experience with the MDC, and there are numerous casual members who have read through every thread on every challenge. Yet you think that The Daily Grail is more competent to discuss this?

I showed up on this forum because I was curious about the MDC having seen it on the BBC Horizon show about homeopathy. I read through EVERY challenge thread. I painfully followed through as applicant after applicant turned out to be nutty, self-deluded, or looking for some way to cheat the test.

The only exception that comes to mind was the one person who went through with the GSIC test. I remember when Prophet Yahweh backed out by asking to bring armed guards.

I've read enough to stand by the integrity of the MDC and Randi. I have seen no evidence at all that there is anything dishonorable about either.

 

[badnewsBH]

8. When entering into this challenge, as far as this may be done by established legal statutes, the applicant surrenders any and all rights to legal action against Mr. Randi, and/or against any persons peripherally involved, and/or against the James Randi Educational Foundation. This applies to injury, and/or accident, and/or any other damage of a physical and/or emotional nature, and/or financial and/or professional loss, and/or damage of any kind. However, this rule in no way affects the awarding of the prize, once it is properly won in accord with the protocol.

If you win, fine and dandy, BUT, if by some "inconsistency" as in the Carina Landin case, you cant jump through the hoop, tough bickies! Old Jimmy can ridicule you, your ideas, in fact do anything he wants to do and there is sweet bugger all you can do legally about it.

Buzz, I don't think you're appreciating what that clause is supposed to mean.

I've seen plenty of clauses like it in other agreements, like EULAs for various software installations. All it says (from what I can read) is that the JREF is not responsible for damages that the applicant suffers while being tested. This means that the applicant can't sue the JREF for losing revenue if someone sees the result of a test, and decides not to pay the applicant for the use of his/her alleged paranormal ability. It also protects the JREF from an applicant participating and claiming injury during the test, which could otherwise lead to a civil court case; this is addressed in the other snippet you listed below, which I'll get to momentarily.

That clause does not entitle anyone associated with the JREF to commit libel or slander against the applicants, if that's what you imply. On the other hand, nothing is stopping anyone from ridiculing the ideas or beliefs of the applicants, from what I can tell; I'm not positive, but stating the belief that dowsing is utter nonsense doesn't appear to qualify as either slander or libel.

Legalities aside, the testing protocols and results appear to be out in the open. If Randi or any JREF representative were badmouthing someone over the results of a test, and that treatment was unjustified because of a bad test, it seems that others could read up about it and decide the truth for themselves. Additionally, I've yet to see any evidence of anyone being mistreated in the manner you describe. Ms. Landin was given another chance to be tested once the mistake in the testing procedure was found, and it appears that the communications around this test were all conducted politely and respectfully on both sides.

Remember, the people involved are attempting to design protocols that are as devoid of bias as possible. To engage applicants or discuss them in a manner opposite to that isn't productive or conducive to the JREF being supported by the skeptical public. The JREF is a charitable organization, IIRC, and I wouldn't think that being obnoxious or insulting toward people (even those whose ideas strike its members as ludicrous) would increase the donations they receive.

Also there is this:

IMPORTANT: Only claims that can be verified by evidence under proper observing conditions will be accepted. Also, JREF will NOT accept claims of the existence of deities or demons/angels, the validity of exorcism, religious claims, cloudbusting, causing the Sun to rise or the stars to move, etc. JREF will also NOT test claims that are likely to cause injury of any sort, such as those involving the withholding of air, food or water, or the use of illicit materials, drugs, or dangerous devices.

I would have thought that once you had rendered JREF free from the possibility of legal liability it would be a simple case of "do whatever it takes".

I don't see the relevance here. The MDC is about testing claims that are testable, to see if the applicant does indeed possess paranormal abilities (or the cleverness necessary to fake them). If the test results don't speak for themselves, the test really isn't valid (or was done incorrectly, as occurred with Ms. Landin). On the subject of refusing to perform tests that may be injurious, I should think you'd be giving JREF reps more credit. The rule is there, in my opinion, for several reasons, among which could be...

1. To prevent any possibility of liability. Even with clause #8 considered, there is still the chance that a civil case would be heard. Of course, there's also the possibility of criminal charges in some cases (drug possession, negligence leading to injury or death, etc.)

2. Ethical considerations. This, I think, is more the reason. I get no indication from what I've read at this site that anyone associated with JREF wants to see people hurt to prove their points. I imagine the majority of applicants, like people in general, are of a good sort, who honestly believe they have paranormal abilities and intend harm to no one. JREF doesn't appear to be conducting the MDC in order to flog people into disbelieving claims of the paranormal.

You are correct Tapman, the MDC is a very cleaver magician's trick, and as the log of applicants shows it is only the foolhardy and poor who dare to venture up on stage with a master performer.

Tapman may well be correct, but so far, there's been little to no evidence in support of that position. To date, the evidence appears to support the notion that the JREF have done a pretty good job of conducting the MDC in a fair manner.

 

[yairhol]

Tapman, you are unwilling to listen. I'm sure this has been said before but I'll say it anyway.

First of all, let's not even talk about the $1M challenge. Let's talk about the preliminary tests since no one has succeeded in those either.

Randi does not run the tests himself. In fact, some of the preliminary tests are done in other countries/regions where a university professor or other representative appointed by the JREF is handling the test. Randi himself is nowhere near to that place.

Magic has nothing to do with not succeeding in the tests.
The person taking the test just has to do what he claims he can do.
That person can also bring another person to watch the test.
If you say you can see through walls and you actually CAN see through walls, then I'm sure Randi cannot do anything to prevent that from succeeding in the test (if Randi was present there...again I'm talking about the preliminary tests).

 

[The Professor]

I have been thinking of the million dollar challenge. Is it just another one of the amazing Randi's magic tricks? I really wonder. There is another magician out there that has offered Randi money to accept his challenge, and Randi has not. Everyone on here said it was a trick, and it was controlled by the magician, and it was a hoax.
Isn't Randi's challenge controlled by him also. Randi is a great magician too, better than the other guy.
Isn't Randi's challenge worthy of skepticism?
If I were a great magician, and was offering a million dollars of my hard earned money, I would make sure no one could win it.
Given that premise, and the fact that Randi is one of the smartest guys around, don't you think Randi's trick million dollar challenge is somehow rigged so no one can win it. I kinda do.
If it is a trick, and no one has been able to win it, doesn't that make it Randi's greatest magic trick of all times. And if you accept that premise, doesn't that make Randi the greatest magician of all time?
Just thinkin
Your friend Tapman

I agree! These thoughts have been crossing my mind too!
I will be finding out soon.

 

[Jackalgirl]

Howdy, TP --

Tapman, as far as I can tell, never responded to some basic facts about the Challenge. The big one is this:

The demonstration (that is, the preliminary test) is run according to a protocol developed by and acceptable to both the claimant and JREF. Conditions for success and failure are clearly spelled out.

Tapman has suggested that James Randi is so smart that he can rig the tests so that such rigging is undetectable by the claimant. However, he has yet to every demonstrated that this has ever happened.

I personally don't believe that it is so, because I believe that someone with genuine powers -- most especially the people (like Sylvia Browne) who claim to be able to regularly and reliably utilize those powers -- would have a test protocol so incredibly simple that there would and could be NO ARGUMENT possible. It'd be like, "hey, I'm psychic." And James Randi would be like, "cool, how 'bout you tell me what's in my safe?" And the psychic would say, "okay. It's a 1974 edition of the March issue of Playboy, signed by Hugh Hefner as follows: 'from one amazing guy to another, yours truly, Hef.'" And James Randi would be, like, "Dude, here's your check for $10,000. Jeff will be along with the other $990,000 within ten days." It'd be so easy you'd have to laugh, if you weren't crying in sheer amazement at how humanity's understanding of how the physical universe works is going to change entirely, and maybe communications with our eventual outpost on Mars won't take as long since we'll be able to have psychics on either end, how cool would that be?

Why is it so dang hard? Not because Randi is trying to make it hard (which is what tapman is suggesting). It just ends up being ferociously hard, because it has to be a properly-controlled demonstration, and these powers just poof! vanish when the demonstration is properly controlled. Drat.

Edited to add: the formal test is also conducted according to a mutually-agreed protocol. Just wanted to make sure that's clear.

 

[steenkh]

Tapman has suggested that James Randi is so smart that he can rig the tests so that such rigging is undetectable by the claimant.

Randi must be real smart when he can rig tests that take place in far away countries like Sweden, and Randi has never been present at the test!

 

[Jackalgirl]

Randi must be real smart when he can rig tests that take place in far away countries like Sweden, and Randi has never been present at the test!

You mean, like the one at the end of which the JREF discovered, and admitted publicly, that the test had not been carried out per the protocol? The one that JREF is now working with the claimant to re-do? I know. It's perfidious.

 

[DarthFishy]

Sometimes I wish I was psychic. Then I could apply for the test. Win the Million. Show everyone the challenge is real. And then donate the money back to the JREF.

Of course that would kind of be against the whole point of the challenge, but it's a thought.

 

[EHocking]

Sometimes I wish I was psychic. Then I could apply for the test. Win the Million. Show everyone the challenge is real. And then donate the money back to the JREF.

Of course that would kind of be against the whole point of the challenge, but it's a thought.

The conspiracy theorists would have field day.

 

[Ysidro]

Randi must be real smart when he can rig tests that take place in far away countries like Sweden, and Randi has never been present at the test!

It's obvious Randi has paranormal abilities that allow him to do this! That means he could pass his own challenge!

I wonder what the rules for that would be....

Seriously though, this is essentially what tapman is saying: that James Randi is able to affect events on another continent and with such ability that no one can actually detect it thereby proving it exists!

Why is this reminding me of 9/11 twoof all of a sudden?

 

[Crundy]

Seriously though, this is essentially what tapman is saying: that James Randi is able to affect events on another continent and with such ability that no one can actually detect it thereby proving it exists!

Why is this reminding me of 9/11 twoof all of a sudden?

Occam's Razor anyone?

 

[Mongrel]

Occam's Razor anyone?

Pfft - I laugh at you and your so-called "Logic"

 

[Metullus]

I have just today found this thread. After reading a score or so of posts I decided to review the Challenge Applications threads with an eye to judging the reasonableness of the protocols and their development. I have yet to find one that appeared to be in any way disadvantageous to the claimant, assuming, of course, that the claimant could in fact perform as claimed. I have not found any protocol that afforded Randi (or his proxy) the opportunity to cheat. I have found at least one instance (Paul Carey) where Randi insisted that the claimant provide his own psychic "receiver" instead of one provided by JREF so that there would be no question of the fairness of the test.

If there is an overarching theme in the claim and protocol negotiation process it is this: testing of their claims is the last thing that applicants want to do.

 

[Crundy]

If there is an overarching theme in the claim and protocol negotiation process it is this: testing of their claims is the last thing that applicants want to do.

No, they all want to be tested, they just want to be tested under conditions that even a five year old could pass without knowing what their ability is meant to be. Pavel seems to be a good example of this at the moment. He came to the forums with a very very firm "I can see the content of a photo inside an envelope". As the thread went on, it became more and more apparent that he can't do this, unless the choice is 50/50 and he gets as many goes with it as he needs. As other people pointed out, the easiest way to test would be to have seven blank photos and one with a picture on, and he has to find the photo. If he can do what he says he can do then this would be a breeze. He has said he cannot do this, which to me states that he cannot do what he says he can and is suffering from confirmation bias in all his self tests which he excells at.

It's a shame, because he's a nice guy and does truly believe he is psychic. I would want nothing more than for him to see that his ability is a delusion, and then join the forums as another convert.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

No, they all want to be tested, they just want to be tested under conditions that even a five year old could pass without knowing what their ability is meant to be. Pavel seems to be a good example of this at the moment. He came to the forums with a very very firm "I can see the content of a photo inside an envelope". As the thread went on, it became more and more apparent that he can't do this, unless the choice is 50/50 and he gets as many goes with it as he needs. As other people pointed out, the easiest way to test would be to have seven blank photos and one with a picture on, and he has to find the photo. If he can do what he says he can do then this would be a breeze. He has said he cannot do this, which to me states that he cannot do what he says he can and is suffering from confirmation bias in all his self tests which he excells at.

It's a shame, because he's a nice guy and does truly believe he is psychic. I would want nothing more than for him to see that his ability is a delusion, and then join the forums as another convert.

...or provide substantial evidence for his claim in two controlled tests and invite the self-proclaimed skeptics to convert.

[/Devil's Advocate]