Israeli Election

[CapelDodger]

I do believe (because actions speak louder then words e.g. withdrawal from Gaza) that Sharon if he gets the mandate from the people will be able to do more to ensure Israeli's long term internal and external peace then any other figure currently influencing the Israeli/Palestinian problem.

A classic example of "Only Nixon could go to China". Peretz, not being of European, old-zionist stock, could be accused of being pro-Arab. Nobody could credibly accuse Sharon of that. Not that he won't be so accused, of course.

 

[CapelDodger]

Terrorism thrives on antagonism--it makes for more and better martyrs. It would be in Hamas's interest to see the most intractable and most expansionist Israeli politician in power, and if terrorist acts will advance that cause, they will try them.

IMHO, as always.

There are Palestinian elections coming up as well, and Palestinians are not blind to such tactics. Not are Hamas blind to lack of Palestinian blindness. There will be rejectionists on both sides. The important point is for neither party to be provoked by their provocations.

 

[CapelDodger]

darat mentions:
From what I understand I can see groups like Hamas trying their damnedest to ensure he isn't re-elected.

HAMAS and the Hizbullah and whatever other terrorists are just interested in perpetrating atrocities and are going to maintain their violence ...

What is this thing about Hezbollah? Hezbollah are a Shia Lebanese movement, they fought against Israeli occupation of Southern (mostly Shia) Lebanon, they are the main representation of the Shias in the fundamentally sectarian Lebanon. Apart from the Sheba Farms pocket the Israelis have gone, and Israeli soldiers are no longer being attacked by Hezbollah outside that pocket. Israel, as long as it keeps its current borders, is not the preoccupation of Hezbollah - the Maronites, Palestinians, Druze, Syrian Ba'athists and what-all else within Lebanon are its preoccupation.

Is it simply resentment because Hezbullah were the first force to actually beat the Israelis back? Is it to keep open the option of re-occupying Southern Lebanon because of that pesky Hezbollah? Or what?

 

[Cleon]

The Forward, an old Jewish newspaper, has an interesting article on Peretz and the coming elections.

(There's a fascinating article in the Yiddish version as well, more about the general "political shock" in Israel than Peretz specifically, but somehow I doubt many here would be able to read it and I don't have time to try and translate.)

 

[CapelDodger]

From what I understand I can see groups like Hamas trying their damnedest to ensure he isn't re-elected. The last thing they want is a government committed to real long term Israeli security and that is focused on Israeli issues and matters.

The Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership (to the extent that they survive and are at liberty) are sussed enough to realise that their own provocations will be resented by the Palestinian masses they depend on. The limitations of their influence - Hamas is not strictly hierarchical, how could it be when Israel keeps killing its hierarchs? - might mean some sporadic attacks. If so the response of the Israeli candidates and electorate will be most informative.

From an anti-zionist perspective (such as mine and Hamas's) the best option is a two-state solution. That will leave a finally constructed Israel to deal with what it has constructed. No amount of suicide-bombing would be as destructive of Israel as that.

This election is not going to be dull, is it? Nor will the Palestinian or Iraqi elections which closely coincide. And 2006 means US mid-terms, does it not? Campaigns start early over there. Politics is not currently a dry well.

Poor ol' Fukiyama. The End of History indeed. Posterity - unkindly, but actually - will bracket him between "Damn the Torpedos!" and "Peace in Our Time".

 

[CapelDodger]

The Forward, an old Jewish newspaper, has an interesting article on Peretz and the coming elections.

Few seemed more shocked by the events than Peretz himself. "I was basically the only one who believed that reshuffling the political cards is possible," Peretz told the Forward in his first post-victory interview for the foreign media. Still, he said, "I was surprised when I got the first results of the vote. I was aware of the atmosphere among party members." Referring to Peres, he said he "ran against a man who enjoyed vast support, one who knows how to put up a fight. I knew that we had impressive popular support, but I was not sure that the timing was right for a change of this magnitude."

Crappy journalism. "Few seemed more shocked" followed by Peretz's "I was surprised ..." What's really shocking is how the pundits were so adrift from what was going on in the Labour party.

Peretz, 53, a political maverick who heads the powerful Histadrut trade union federation ...

The foundation vehicle of Ben-Gurion's victory over Weizmann and rule of Israel. Not to be lightly dismissed.

... unseated veteran statesman Shimon Peres after waging a grassroots campaign that called for quitting Ariel Sharon's coalition and moving the party to the left. Within a week after the primary, Peretz had gotten his shocked party to agree to bolt the government

The party was "shocked" to discover that Peres's status as an empty suit with a ministry was more significant for Peres and his acolytes than the party at large? I think not. I think the pundits are the ones that are shocked, and they're projecting. I'm certainly not. You don't import around a million ex-Soviet Russians to do the crapwork that was previously done by Palestinians without it having an effect on the trades-union movement. Currently dominated by a non-European Jew - representative of the Sephardi who played the recent Russian role back in the 50's, and of the future Russian role by the existing rules.

... I doubt many here would be able to read it and I don't have time to try and translate.

You ain't fooling nobody, you're jet-lagged from the China trip. I saw you in that photo - you're taller than I imagined. Not that there's anything wrong with that. The taller the Dalek, the deeper the bow, that's my philosophy.

 

[Cleon]

Crappy journalism. "Few seemed more shocked" followed by Peretz's "I was surprised ..." What's really shocking is how the pundits were so adrift from what was going on in the Labour party.

Keep in mind that over the decades, the Forward has drifted from a radical socialist Bund organ to being a labor Zionist journal.

The party was "shocked" to discover that Peres's status as an empty suit with a ministry was more significant for Peres and his acolytes than the party at large? I think not. I think the pundits are the ones that are shocked, and they're projecting. I'm certainly not. You don't import around a million ex-Soviet Russians to do the crapwork that was previously done by Palestinians without it having an effect on the trades-union movement. Currently dominated by a non-European Jew - representative of the Sephardi who played the recent Russian role back in the 50's, and of the future Russian role by the existing rules.

The irony being that Russian Jews are Ashkenazim, not Sephardim. (Actually, I wonder if Peretz is actually Sephardic, or Mizrahi...The two are conflated alot, since Sephardim settled in predominantly Arab lands after the expulsion from Spain. Being from Morocco, I suppose it's more likely he's actually Sephardic than most others.)

You ain't fooling nobody, you're jet-lagged from the China trip. I saw you in that photo - you're taller than I imagined. Not that there's anything wrong with that. The taller the Dalek, the deeper the bow, that's my philosophy.

Man, a Dalek can't go anywhere these days...

 

[webfusion]

C-D actually says this:
Israel, as long as it keeps its current borders, is not the preoccupation of Hezbollah.

Yeah, right, sure, I thank you. Wonderful evaluation of the situation.

• From News Reports yesterday: "The Hezbollah shelling continued throughout the afternoon, as a large number of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells fell in Kiryat Shmona, Metula and other northern Israel settlements."

(fascinating use of the word 'settlements' in that context!)

 

[CapelDodger]

Keep in mind that over the decades, the Forward has drifted from a radical socialist Bund organ to being a labor Zionist journal.

Splitter!

The irony being that Russian Jews are Ashkenazim, not Sephardim. (Actually, I wonder if Peretz is actually Sephardic, or Mizrahi...The two are conflated alot, since Sephardim settled in predominantly Arab lands after the expulsion from Spain. Being from Morocco, I suppose it's more likely he's actually Sephardic than most others.)

I was lax, the 50's cheap labour force was mostly Iraqi, who may or may not be exactly the Mizrahim and probably don't identify with some fricking Berber socalist anyway. On the other hand, there's a generation or two of home-grown Mizrahim who have the vote and might well identify with socialism.

The irony lies behind the idea that Jews could be regarded as a "nation", be they Polish, German, French, 'Murrican, Middle Eastern or Martian. "Ashkenazi" covers Poles and Russians as well as Germans and Austrians, despite their greaat differences. "Sephardi" is at least well-defined.

Man, a Dalek can't go anywhere these days...

In my day they couldn't go upstairs. In the new series they can levitate. Who's winning this war? (Fairly deep bow follows.)

 

[CBL4]

Originally posted by CapelDodger
From an anti-zionist perspective (such as mine and Hamas's) the best option is a two-state solution.

You may want a two-state solution but that is not Hamas' goal.

CBL

 

[CBL4]

Both the Palestinian and Israeli elections are impossible to forecast at this point. Almost anything is possible.

My predictions:
1) Israel will have a mish-mash of small parties winning resulting in a weak government without the capital to make any more changes. Sharon will be prime minister.
2) Palestine will have a corrupt, crony laden government infested with terrorists.

In other words, no real change.

CBL

 

[CapelDodger]

You may want a two-state solution but that is not Hamas' goal.

CBL

I don't expect a two-state solution to be viable, but I see it as the best route to a one-state solution (preferably including Jordan). If it isn't viable, that will be confirmed by experience. If it is viable, well there you go, I'd be wrong. It has to happen sometime.

By one-state I mean a multi-ethnic state. The one Jewish State has already proven non-achievable.

 

[CapelDodger]

1) Israel will have a mish-mash of small parties winning resulting in a weak government without the capital to make any more changes.

That's always the state of the Knesset, but the Knesset - the legislative arm - is not the government - the executive arm. The Israeli system is designed to create a strong government with little parliamentary oversight or interference. It was meant, originally, for Ben-Gurion and the Party to wield, but like so many plans it went awry.

 

[CapelDodger]

C-D actually says this:
Israel, as long as it keeps its current borders, is not the preoccupation of Hezbollah.

Yeah, right, sure, I thank you. Wonderful evaluation of the situation.

• From News Reports yesterday: "The Hezbollah shelling continued throughout the afternoon, as a large number of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells fell in Kiryat Shmona, Metula and other northern Israel settlements."

Trouble which started in the Sheba'a Farms, the pocket of continuing occupation I mentioned above. The Israelis shelled into Lebanon, Hezbullah shelled back. Israel can't assume it can act with impunity.

 

[CapelDodger]

Further to the "strong government, weak parliament" point :

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/649250.html

State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss on Wednesday attacked Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for transferring millions of shekels to the defense establishment without first receiving government or Knesset approval.

Likud MK Yuval Steinitz, chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said the Knesset must most closely supervise the defense budget.

Finance Ministry wage director Kobi Haber responded by saying that treasury officials have "limited" knowledge of the defense budget and only three individuals in the ministry's branch actually deal with the issue.

The military arm is also a lot more influential than the parliamentary arm.

 

[webfusion]

Israel can't assume it can act with impunity.

It can and it does, especially when dealing with terrorists.

BTW, the shooting was started by the terrorists, in a concentrated and deliberate assault across the internationally recognized border -- it was not a case of the terrorists reacting to any Israeli shelling. It was a pure act of war, on the part of the Iranian & Syrian-backed Party of Allah. The Sheba Farms is occupied Arab Land? Says who? Syria?
Ooops, I forgot, according to you, Tel Aviv is also Occupied Arab Land, according to the Syrians.

 

[CapelDodger]

It can and it does [act with impunity], especially when dealing with terrorists.

So there wasn't any barrage from Hezbollah?

BTW, the shooting was started by the terrorists, in a concentrated and deliberate assault across the internationally recognized border -- it was not a case of the terrorists reacting to any Israeli shelling.

The barrage was a reaction to Israeli shelling. The original attack was in the Sheba'a Farms, from what I've read.

It was a pure act of war, on the part of the Iranian & Syrian-backed Party of Allah. The Sheba Farms is occupied Arab Land? Says who? Syria?

Israel claims the Sheba'a Farms are occupied Syrian territory. The Syrians and Lebanese claim it's occupied Lebanese territory.

Ooops, I forgot, according to you, Tel Aviv is also Occupied Arab Land, according to the Syrians.

Tel Aviv was built on land purchased by the Jewish National Fund, and agency of the World Zionist Agency, to provide a specifically Jewish alternative to Jaffa - which was occupied in 1948, with about 90% of its native population evicted and herded into the Gaza Strip by the Hagganah.

Why is Hezbollah resistance to Israeli occupation terrorism? Referring to anyone who resists Israeli expansionism and regional hegemony as "terrorist" does your argument no favours at all.

 

[CapelDodger]

Of course, apart from the general election there's the Likud leadership election. (How could anyone imagine this would be dull?)

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/649332.html

Fifty high-ranking reserve army officers will be working to get Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz elected as chairman of the Likud.

This degree of political involvement by the military would raise more than a few eyebrows in most Western democracies. It would cause a major storm in the UK, but there's the Cromwell and Wellington experiences factored into the system. Militarisation of politics and politicisation of the military are frowned upon here.

 

[CapelDodger]

The Israeli election laws take "arcane" to whole new levels.

President Katsav and Knesset agree on March 28 elections
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/649214.html

I'll quote at length, more or less by necessity. No extract could do it justice. Is there an antonym to hologram?

President Moshe Katsav on Wednesday afternoon signed an order allowing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to dissolve the Knesset, paving the way for holding early election on March 28 - should the order be registered in the State Archive by December 8.

Sharon, who initially opted for elections on March 8, told Katsav in a letter that he now agreed on the later date. At the same time, the Chairman of the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, MK Michael Ratzon, told Katsav the Knesset would freeze legislation for holding early elections.

The deal will allow Sharon to appoint cabinet ministers (to replace the resigning Labor and Likud ministers) as of December 8, in exchange for Sharon agreeing not to hold elections earlier than March 28. Had the deal not be reached, Sharon would have not been able to appoint new ministers and remain with five ministers in his cabinet.


The deal was hammered out by Attorney General Menachem Mazuz, and was presented this morning at meeting in Katsav's office attended by Eitan, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin and the Government?s Secretary General Yisrael Maimon.

Once the order is registered, Sharon will become head of the interim government. Until that date, Sharon will need the Knesset's approval to name new ministers.

Also, during this period, a bloc of 61 MKs could ask the president to give a MK the task of forming a new government.

That last point is tantalising. One could even imagine Sharon orchestrating his own removal as interim head-of-government (not head-of-state, of course, that's the President who has about as much real power as Elizabeth Windsor of Saxe-Coburg does in Australia). A little bit of chaos without him in command might work wonders for him. "Always keep a hold of Nurse, For fear of finding something worse."

 

[Gurdur]

This degree of political involvement by the military would raise more than a few eyebrows in most Western democracies. It would cause a major storm in the UK, but there's the Cromwell and Wellington experiences factored into the system. Militarisation of politics and politicisation of the military are frowned upon here.

A pretty big strawman, considering military service is compulsory in Israel, and considering they're working through a democratic electoral system, with no such "militarization" in the way you imply ever so vaguely.