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Israeli Election

CapelDodger

Penultimate Amazing
Joined
Sep 12, 2001
Messages
25,102
Location
Cardiff, South Wales
So what about that Israeli election then? Hard to call or what?

I'm thinking Yes on Sharon leaving Likud, No on Sharon-Peres link-up. No idea at all what Sharon's new party will be called. I'll take a wild punt at Gilad.
 
So what about that Israeli election then? Hard to call or what?

I'm thinking Yes on Sharon leaving Likud, No on Sharon-Peres link-up. No idea at all what Sharon's new party will be called. I'll take a wild punt at Gilad.
I'll be interested to see how Amir Peretz goes...certainly he does look like a genuine alternative outlook. Plus the moustche.....that's a damn fine moustache.

Do you think Israelis are any prospect of giving a genuine lecturn pounding lefty a go? One that speaks arabic better than english? a non european?
 
I'll be interested to see how Amir Peretz goes...certainly he does look like a genuine alternative outlook. Plus the moustche.....that's a damn fine moustache.

Do you think Israelis are any prospect of giving a genuine lecturn pounding lefty a go? One that speaks arabic better than english? a non european?
Well, such questions are what makes it a must-watch. The Russians might be anti-communist, but that's not because of the Soviet welfare-state but more because of them not being rich like other folk. In Israel they're not rich and don't have the welfare-state they're used to. Peretz speaks to them, but he doesn't do it in Russian. He needs Russian allies to do that, and of course he's got them within and without the Labour Party. One thing socialists are very well-versed in is organising, and another thing is leverage.

Peres lost out to Peretz because his world-view was fixed 50 years ago. The idea that a million or so Russians immigrating in the 90's was a major phaenomenon passed him by. His world had shrunk to Labour and nation-founding cliques, and the trappings of power without any substance, long before. The pundits were shocked. Why, FCOL? Because their world coincided far more with the Peres Bubble than with the Histadrut.

The Histadrut was Ben-Gurion's second vehicle (his first was the Party). Just as you'd expect from a socialist. He leveraged it into Founder of the Nation status for himself. The Histadrut became the governing body of the Hagganah, the future IDF, within the Yishuv. In 1948, Ben-Gurion was the government and he was the army. Apart from the Irgun, which was subsumed into the IDF in 1949 lest it become an alternative power-base to The Party.

Irony dictated that Likud, spawn of the Irgun, saw off The Party. The Party ignored the Mizrahim influx politically, assuming they would naturally become Party People by the superior example of their Ashkenazi Rationalist brothers. Meantime they were expected to do the crap work, which used to be done by Palestinians but they ... weren't there in such numbers any more. And there weren't yet many Russians available, and Western Jews didn't seem keen on leaving their comfortable lives - they give generously, of course - to do crap work in some Eastern Mediterranean Shangri La.

Late, drunk, positively quivering with anticipation. It's gonna be a roller-coaster of spills and thrills, far more interesting than that nonsense a year ago.
 
I'll be interested to see how Amir Peretz goes...certainly he does look like a genuine alternative outlook. Plus the moustche.....that's a damn fine moustache.
Can't argue with that, and it's yet another variable. Will the Russians respond favourably to the 'tache, or will they be such afficianodos as to regard it as an "Ottoman Cut"? Will any polls be conducted to give us data to go on? I doubt it.
 
Is that it? This is democracy in action in the Middle East. much-trumpeted for many years as the free-speech democratic secular free-market can-do exemplar for the New Middle Eastern Order, and I get blanked? It's got "Israel" in the title, FFS.
 
Give us some time, CD. Americans usually have years to build up to an election campaign and the though of, say, Bush or Hillary Clinton or Tom Delay suddenly resigning and starting a new party literaly weeks before an election take some getting used to.

That said, I do find it most interesting that Sharon, who has been vilified as much as any politician (a fair amount of it deserved, IMHO), now apparently occupies the Center ground between Benjamin Not-Yet-You-Yahoo and the Leftie Labor guy. Given the Shas party, the Arab party, and the various Silly parties of both right and left, this would be quite a show if it wasn't so bloody damn important to the future of the area.

Does Perez have any role to play? Or is Sharon's move made him inconsequential?

The PA will probably lie low, if they are smart, but I wonder if Hamas/Islamic Jihad will try something to affect the vote--again, IMHO, it seems they would benefit with a more rightist Likud party victory, counter-intuitive as that may seem.

We shall see.
 
olmert_w_sharon.jpg


"You want ME to be at the top of your new party list? You want ME to take a leadership role and bring National Responsibility to victory in the March 6th elections? Arik, that is absolutely brilliant strategy, setting up a young, upcoming guy like ME to be campaigning, while you relax at the ranch for the next three months"

(Arik Sharon, due to security constraints, will be unable to travel the country in any campaigning capacity -- and Ehud Olmert will be the de-facto publicly-visible leader of the National Responsibility party).

These elections are going to be dull & uneventful, and not the stuff of exciting forum conversations. Watch and see.
 
An interesting headline from ABC news:

Sharon Quits Likud to Pursue Peacemaking

Sharon Pulls Out of Hardline Likud Party to Pursue Peacemaking Opportunities With Palestinians.

JERUSALEM Nov 21, 2005 — Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Monday he gambled and broke away from his hardline Likud Party because he did not want to squander peacemaking opportunities created by Israel's pullout from the Gaza Strip or waste time with political wrangling.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1334402

I wonder if this will change anyone's opinion of Sharon?
 
...snip...

These elections are going to be dull & uneventful, and not the stuff of exciting forum conversations. Watch and see.

He splits from the party (even taking the official Likud spokesman with him so Likud had no one to immediately speak brief the press... ), forms a new party ot fight an election and you say it's going to be dull and uneventful?

From what I understand I can see groups like Hamas trying their damnedest to ensure he isn't re-elected. The last thing they want is a government committed to real long term Israeli security and that is focused on Israeli issues and matters.

Since the PA failed to capitalise on the death of Arafat I think this is even more important then the withdrawal from Gaza to help establish the grounds for peace (ish) in the long term for the region.
 
I think this is a recipe for more political stalemate.

His new party will have fewer seats and be more dependent on the smaller ones to maintain a coalition. That means keeping too many conflicting interests happy. And Labor's new head has repeatedly said he will not consider a unity government (in fact he just left this one). The old Likud certainly won't rush into partnership with him. So now what?
 
Not the only elections in "Palestine"

darat mentions:
From what I understand I can see groups like Hamas trying their damnedest to ensure he isn't re-elected.

HAMAS and the Hizbullah and whatever other terrorists are just interested in perpetrating atrocities and are going to maintain their violence, Israeli elections or not. A quick reading of Israeli polls shows Sharon handily winning enought seats to stay as PM, so what possible effect will the terrorists have on that in any actions they undertake?

Also, it needs to be recalled that the Palestinians are also in an election period, and HAMAS is trying to influence their own political sphere, and most likely that translates into violence and mayhem.

Meanwhile Iran & Syria are supporting (directing) worldwide terror, launched from Lebanon and elsewhere --- is this to be interpreted as "ensuring that Sharon is not elected" ??? Please, spare us the contortions.

The election in Israel will be swift, and the vote will surprise nobody.
 
darat mentions:
From what I understand I can see groups like Hamas trying their damnedest to ensure he isn't re-elected.

HAMAS and the Hizbullah and whatever other terrorists are just interested in perpetrating atrocities and are going to maintain their violence, Israeli elections or not. A quick reading of Israeli polls shows Sharon handily winning enought seats to stay as PM, so what possible effect will the terrorists have on that in any actions they undertake?

Also, it needs to be recalled that the Palestinians are also in an election period, and HAMAS is trying to influence their own political sphere, and most likely that translates into violence and mayhem.

Meanwhile Iran & Syria are supporting (directing) worldwide terror, launched from Lebanon and elsewhere --- is this to be interpreted as "ensuring that Sharon is not elected" ??? Please, spare us the contortions.

The election in Israel will be swift, and the vote will surprise nobody.

What contortions? It is not in Hamas's (or some of the other groups) best interests to have an elected pragmatic Israeli government. Hamas and the others use the Israeli-Palestinian problems as a veneer for their own goals and power struggles.

Any Israeli government that has the potential to take the steps required to remove Israel from the current conflict will be opposed by the various groups in the region (and elsewhere) that use the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as a rallying call and a bogeyman.

I do believe (because actions speak louder then words e.g. withdrawal from Gaza) that Sharon if he gets the mandate from the people will be able to do more to ensure Israeli's long term internal and external peace then any other figure currently influencing the Israeli/Palestinian problem.

A pragmatic political leader with a mandate from the people is the worse possible outcome for the ideologues of the region and elsewhere.

If Hamas (and others) can engineer enough terrorists acts within Israel others seeking election will be able to gain political capital with the "we'll bomb them to the stone-age, it's the promised land" rhetoric so beloved of idiots and ideologues.
 
What contortions? It is not in Hamas's (or some of the other groups) best interests to have an elected pragmatic Israeli government.
No.

Hamas combines Palestinian nationalism with Islamic fundamentalism. Its founding charter commits the group to the destruction of Israel, the replacement of the PA with an Islamist state on the West Bank and Gaza, and to raise “the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine.”

http://cfrterrorism.org/groups/hamas.html

Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement (PIJ, Arabic الجهاد الإسلامي الفلسطيني - Harakat al-Jihād al-Islāmi al-Filastīni) is a militant group, regarded as terrorist by Israel, the United States and the European Union, whose goal is the "liberation" of historical Palestine, destruction of the State of Israel and its replacement with an Islamist state for Palestinians.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Islamic_Jihad

Hamas and Islamic Jihad don't care about Israel. They take their orders from Tehran and Damascus. They don't care about Sharon, Amir Peretz, Labor, Likud...they only care about Israel's destruction... for that is their stated goal.
 
...snip...


Hamas and Islamic Jihad don't care about Israel. They take their orders from Tehran and Damascus. They don't care about Sharon, Amir Peretz, Labor, Likud...they only care about Israel's destruction... for that is their stated goal.

And that is why it is in Israel's best interest to remove itself from Palestinian problems. As long as the problems in the area can be talked about as the "Israeli-Palestinian conflict/problem" it provides for many groups a propaganda tool that they can hide behind.
 
Are you meaning to say it is in Hamas' best interest to have a pragmatic Israeli government?
What I am saying Darat is that they don't care. It is irrelevant to them. All they are concerned with is overthrowing the Palestinian Authority and "expelling the Zionist enemy from our lands and holy sites". They don't really care who's elected.
 
What I am saying Darat is that they don't care. It is irrelevant to them. All they are concerned with is overthrowing the Palestinian Authority and "expelling the Zionist enemy from our lands and holy sites". They don't really care who's elected.

I must respectfully disagree with you. While I concur that Hamas and Islamic Jihad's goals remain unchanged, they still need to have the ability to recruit the next generation and keep up the propaganda.

Because, the more Israel disengages and turns over control of areas to the PA, the less effect the demagogery (sic) will have over a people that have to be weary of conflict and looking for some sense of stability.

Terrorism thrives on antagonism--it makes for more and better martyrs. It would be in Hamas's interest to see the most intractable and most expansionist Israeli politician in power, and if terrorist acts will advance that cause, they will try them.

IMHO, as always.
 
What I am saying Darat is that they don't care. It is irrelevant to them. All they are concerned with is overthrowing the Palestinian Authority and "expelling the Zionist enemy from our lands and holy sites". They don't really care who's elected.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I am sure there are many of the "foot soldiers" that don't however hamas (and some for the other groups) have shown themselves to be politically astute in how they portray themselves both internally and externally. One of the "facts" they can currently use (the truth is of course irrelevant for propaganda) is the terrible state of suffering of the Palestinian people that is laid at the feet of Israeli. The more that can be done to expose the horrendous, simple goals of groups like Hamas to the wider external audience the more secure (I believe) Israel will be in the future. Therefore I believe the political leaders behind groups like Hamas are concerned about who governs Israel.
 
If Hamas (and others) can engineer enough terrorists acts within Israel others seeking election will be able to gain political capital with the "we'll bomb them to the stone-age, it's the promised land" rhetoric so beloved of idiots and ideologues.

It seems to me that's not likely to take votes away from Sharon. The Israeli public certainly knows he can be a tough SOB when it's appropriate to be so.
 

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