Is Australia screwed?

[a_unique_person]

They might be getting softened now.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/warning-on-water-fires-crisis/2006/09/04/1157222070803.html

VICTORIANS should prepare for even tougher water restrictions and an extreme bushfire season this summer after the failure of the state's winter rainfall, Australia's most senior weather forecaster has warned.
Geoff Love, head of the Bureau of Meteorology, said that after an exceptionally dry winter and the state's driest August on record, the prospect of good rainfall over the next few months had diminished.
And even if good spring rain occurred, dam levels would struggle to recover because of increased evaporation and absorption of water into the soil as air temperatures rose.


The length of southern Australia's current drought has even normally cautious climatologists suggesting it is due to climate change. "It is approaching my personal threshold of being convinced," said Michael Coughlan, director of the National Climate Centre.
Dr Coughlan said that even normal spring rain was not going to help top up water catchments. "If we had good rain in early winter, that would have been absorbed by the soil and made the soil moist, so that subsequent rain would flow into catchments. If we get good rain now, increasing amounts of it will evaporate because of rising temperatures or be absorbed into the soil," he said.
State Environment Minister John Thwaites said the Department of Sustainability and Environment had begun hiring seasonal firefighters a month earlier than usual to get them trained for an earlier fire season.

 

[a_unique_person]

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2006/10/07/1159641577413.html

IN FIVE weeks' time, the delivery and quality of water from Thomson Reservoir (Melbourne's main water supply) will head into "uncharted territory", as the water level drops to a record low and continues to steadily fall away.
The Thomson catchment relies on strong inflows from spring rain through September and October to remain at a healthy level, but these inflows are down by 80 per cent.
As Melbourne Water told The Sunday Age, "last month was the first time in 36 years that Melbourne's total system storage volume fell over the month of September, while streamflow into the four major harvesting catchments for the month was the lowest on record. Streamflow for September was only 19,300 megalitres compared with the 30-year, long-term average of 90,200 megalitres."
At present, water is being siphoned from the Thomson Reservoir at about 900 million litres a day. Since the introduction of stage one water restrictions five weeks ago, Melbourne has used 2.4 billion litres more water than last year for the same period when only permanent water saving rules applied.
Traditionally, the driest months lie ahead of us. By mid-May, according to Melbourne Water's projections disclosed to The Sunday Age, the Thomson will sit at 20 per cent capacity — at which point the introduction of a weir may be required to generate enough pressure so water can be pumped to the Upper Yarra Reservoir.
"It's fair to say this will be a new experience for us … but we'd be looking at reintroducing the Swingler Weir and other contingencies," said Melbourne Water spokesman Ben Pratt. "We'll be looking at how our colleagues around the country are handling similar scenarios."
The last time the water sat at 20 per cent capacity was in 1985, as the reservoir was being filled.
Geoff Crapper, a hydrologist who was responsible for Melbourne's rainfall and river monitoring systems for 15 years, said that if Melbourne's weather continued to mimic the big dry of 2003, the Thomson would be sitting at 13 per cent capacity by mid-May — at the "extreme minimum operating level".

The worst drought ever, after ten years of drought. The dam that was to drought proof this city is going to run out in half a year, if there is no rain, and the prediction is there won't be any.

 

[Zep]

And yet... We are surrounded by water - billions upon billions of litres of free water, virtually unlimited forever. And all we have to do is take the salt out of it.

I know! Let's think about making desalination plants! All we need is a supply of energy and some smart technology. Plenty of sunlight, wind, etc. And the technology is all there already - like the stuff we build for Saudi Arabia but not for ourselves...

Oh, and we also need politicians withOUT the foresight, altruism, brain-power and memory-span of goldfish.

 

[steverino]

No water shortage here!

[qimg]http://www.chicagoparkdistrict.com/images/custom/1087/lakefront.jpg[/qimg]

No salt in that water, either.







Although there is sometimes sewage from those backward redneck states Wisconsin and Indiana, who can't seem to figure out how to keep their sewers from overflowing into the lake after a heavy rain.

Damn. You've made me homesick! Thanks a lot...Steverino, formerly from Deerfield, Evanston, Oak Park.

 

[a_unique_person]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20565548-661,00.html

VICTORIA faces a $1 billion crop wipe-out – and the figure will rise unless significant rain falls by Sunday.
Farmers in the state's north have started selling stock, abandoning crops and even selling land as the drought worsens. Treasurer John Brumby has warned Victorians to prepare for a tough few months, with this Sunday looming as the day many farmers will be forced to make hard decisions if no rain falls.
"It's D-Day, it's decision day for farmers," Mr Brumby said. "And many farmers will make decisions about whether they will continue to tough it out or sell their stock or try to agist their cows."
Across a parched nation yesterday fierce, hot winds fanned fires at Port Lincoln in South Australia and on the edge of Hobart.
As the drought bites, stories of heartache have begun to emerge, including:
A SECOND generation farmer, aged 46, from northern Victoria selling his farm after realising he would not have enough water to make a profit.
A 63-YEAR-OLD farmer forced to sell his dairy cows in July because he could not make a living.
A FARMER in Echuca moving more than 120 cows to another farm at the other end of the state.
FARMERS running 1.25 million sheep selling their stock because there was not enough water to provide pasture for them.
In Victoria about 220 towns and cities out of 397 are now under water restrictions.
"By mid-October, if we don't get good, heavy rain then really the pattern is pretty well set," Mr Brumby said.
"Some of them will de-stock, some will let their trees go in horticulture areas."
With this month already shaping up as one of the hottest and driest on record, a total fire ban was declared for today across the northeastern, southwestern and central districts of Victoria and metropolitan Melbourne.
Mr Brumby, Premier Steve Bracks and Agriculture Minister Bob Cameron are today flying to drought-hit Warracknabeal, where they are expected to announce another multi-million dollar drought assistance program.
It is the third such announcement in recent weeks and the Government is facing the real possibility of going to an election in 44 days with much of the state facing water restrictions.
Mr Brumby said yesterday that the drought engulfing much of Australia had already wiped half a percentage point – or $1 billion – from the state's economy.

So what's that about not being able to afford Kyoto. Much of Australia lives on the edge of adequate rain. It doesn't take much to put us over the edge.

 

[Rob Lister]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20565548-661,00.html




So what's that about not being able to afford Kyoto. Much of Australia lives on the edge of adequate rain. It doesn't take much to put us over the edge.

As you well know, whether you can afford Kyoto or not, it gives you nothing back for your money. Why do you persist in ignoring that? You might as well say, "We've pissed off the rain gods, let's sacrifice some virgins!"

It will have exactly the same effect.

 

[qayak]

As you well know, whether you can afford Kyoto or not, it gives you nothing back for your money.

I think that a cleaner planet that will sustain life for awhile longer, is the best payback for my money. But that's just me.

 

[gtc]

You might as well say, "We've pissed off the rain gods, let's sacrifice some virgins!"

Do you think it might work?

But where can we find them?

 

[RandFan]

I think that a cleaner planet that will sustain life for awhile longer, is the best payback for my money. But that's just me.

Sounds reasonable to me. So any plan will do? Kyoto was good science?

 

[a_unique_person]

Sounds reasonable to me. So any plan will do? Kyoto was good science?

Kyoto as based on good science, and emasculated by the politicians. I'm waiting for the countries of the world to say "lets start with Kyoto, and start planning the next phase".

 

[BobK]

Kyoto as based on good science, and emasculated by the politicians. I'm waiting for the countries of the world to say "lets start with Kyoto, and start planning the next phase".

Hope you have a lot of patience.

 

[a_unique_person]

Australia has refused to date. Already the PM in waiting is making different noises on the topic to the current PM. Australia lives on the edge, we will be one of the first to feel the pain, as the current protracted dry period is demonstrating.

As to being patient for politicians to change their minds, that not the fault of the scientists.

 

[RandFan]

Kyoto as based on good science, and emasculated by the politicians. I'm waiting for the countries of the world to say "lets start with Kyoto, and start planning the next phase".

Thanks for the opinion. I now know where you stand. Nothing more but that's something.

 

[a_unique_person]

Take Australia.

Position of Australia

Despite the fact that Australia was at the time of the negotiation already one of the biggest emitters on per capita basis, the country was granted a target of 8% increase. This is because Australia used its relative smallness as a negotiation tool while other big players were negotiating. The result of the negotiation was reported in the Australian media as being to Australia's advantage.

How do we get an 8% discount? By just being difficult.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

 

[peptoabysmal]

I think that a cleaner planet that will sustain life for awhile longer, is the best payback for my money. But that's just me.

I'd avoid Mars, Jupiter and Pluto as they are also experiencing global warming.

 

[a_unique_person]

Getting worse, Brisbane and Gold Coast on Stage 5 Water Restrictions, Melbourne about to go to Stage 4.

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1868202.htm

MARK COLVIN: The people of Brisbane got a double shock today, not just the news that theirs would be the first Australian capital to bring in stage five water restrictions, but worse, that they might soon be facing stage six and seven restrictions.

Along with the stage five restrictions to apply right across south-east Queensland next month, consumers face big rises in the cost of their water bills.

There's anger at the State Government over an alleged failure to plan properly for the region's water needs and some are asking why consumers, not business, are bearing the brunt of the restrictions.

In Brisbane, Kathryn Roberts reports.

KATHRYN ROBERTS: The odd shower over the past week has done little to boost south-east Queensland's rapidly diminishing water supplies.

Inflows into the region's dams are the lowest on record, so low that south-east Queensland is now facing the prospect of dam levels falling to just six per cent by the end of next year.

As the details of stage five water restrictions were unveiled in Brisbane today, the city's Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, said the outlook was grim.

CAMPBELL NEWMAN: We are now in a terrible situation. I mean, our community is staring down the very real prospect of significant hardship because adequate water supplies were not planned over the last 20 years.

KATHRYN ROBERTS: The State's Liberal leader, Bruce Flegg, was also quick to point the finger, saying the community was now paying the price for years of inaction by the State Government.

BRUCE FLEGG: What an amazing lack of vision for planning for the future. They knew our population was increasing, they knew the amount of water stored per head of population had dwindled to a third of what it used to be, and they did absolutely nothing.

KATHRYN ROBERTS: But the Premier Peter Beattie had a different point of view.

PETER BEATTIE: We are facing the worst drought on record. Tough times require tough measures, and level five, we would have preferred not to have been in that position, but frankly, we've got no choice.

And the dam to droughtproof Melbourne? Down to 20% capacity.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/03/09/1173166985969.html

WATER supplies in Melbourne's main dam are set to fall below 20 per cent for the first time.
Melbourne Water figures show that the Thomson Dam, which provides more than 60 per cent of Melbourne's water supply, reached a record low of 20 per cent on Thursday and remained at that level yesterday.
Rural water levels have fallen to 25 per cent, with paddocks turning to dust in parts of the state, a separate Government report shows.

There are other dams, but they are much smaller. This was supposed to be the one to last us through this century. The current drought is still in force, despite hopes that the breaking of the El Nino would bring rain.

 

[Gurdur]

Is Australia screwed?

Yes.

You have plenty of unoccupied land so can't see why you can't develop "renewable" energy sources from sun towers to wind farms and the like, most of your population are around the crinkly edges so you have access to plenty of sea water. Sea water + “clean” energy = plenty of fresh water.

Not that simple. Three large factors left out there:
- the scale of money needed for huge desalination plants, plus piping
- with such large-scale desalination as mooted, where exactly does the waste salt go? Risks of off-coast big ecological damage (including to fishing industry)
- won't help the inland; and that is a big, big problem. Erosion, desertification, etc. Such threatens the cities, just like as Beijing in China is facing longterm burial in sand-dunes.

Just out of interest, if the human population started to use desalinated water for their needs rather than taking it from rivers and groundwater, would that alleviate the problem for the fauna and flora who can't work taps? Or is the problem more fundamental than that?

The problem is more fundamental; the interior of Australia is drying out badly. Regional climate change has been driven by global warming, and rainfall over all of Australia is decreasing, while evaporation is increasing owing to higher temperatures.

Maybe if we accelerate global warming, it will force a climate change that will bring more water to Australia.

Since it's global warming causing the regional climate change to a hotter, more arid climate, accelerating global warming would be Australia's death knell as far as supporting any large population.

It seems to me the place is not as advertised. I would sue the Aboriginies.

This one was funny.

Economies can live without agriculture. Japan does.

The first part is sometimes true, the second part isn't. Japan actually has a large agricultural component; in fact, proportionally (per capita), more Japanese live on farms and generally rural than do Australians. Australia is an extremely urbanised society. Additionally, given the geographical isolation of Australia, necessitated large-scale importation of foodstuffs would be extremely expensive, causing a significant fall in the standard of living; there is also a very large ecological risk --- Australia has been spared many endemic diseases of plants and animals because it has been largely self-sufficient, agriculturerally, and because of an aggressive quarantine policy on imported foodstuffs.

 

[Gurdur]

How do we get an 8% discount? By just being difficult.

Traditional; you can make a good case that Australia helped cause Japan to go fascist leading up to WW2 by the conduct of the Australian PM at the Versailles Peace Conference at the end of WW1, blocking anti-racist resolutions.

 

[gumboot]

Do you think it might work?

But where can we find them?

If you're lucky you might find some Australians under the age of 12 who are still virgins...

-Gumboot

 

[a_unique_person]

http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1901388.htm

The Prime Minister now asks us to pray for rain. Things must be worse than I thought.

JOHN HOWARD: We should all pray for rain because the situation for the farmers of Australia in the irrigation area of this country, the Murray Darling Basin is critical and we must all hope and pray there is rain, but even if there is, it will be sometime before we know the full extent of it and whether or not it will enable some allocation to be made.

PETA DONALD: For the millions of Australians living in the towns and cities in the Murray Darling Basin, the report finds there will be enough water for basic human consumption.

Farmers will be able to draw water from rivers for personal use, or truck it in.

Those like dairy farmers, or growers of horticultural crops, that rely on irrigation, are facing the most serious effects; John Howard admits could be devastating.

JOHN HOWARD: The impact that this is going to have for, on industry on the horticulture industry, crops like grapes and stone fruits and other primary industries that rely on irrigation, including the dairy industry is very critical indeed.

Now some of them, will… are their nature, are crops that can in effect if appropriately looked after can be a place to install so to speak for a year and then be available albeit not at the same productive level in later years when rain is available, but in other cases I understand the consequences could be a lot more devastating.

Can't afford to fix CO2 though, that would be way too expensive.