Ian said:
I heard a rumor that Bush wants to attack Iran next. Is this true or is it just a rumor. Also, if Bush wants to attack Iran, I don't think that that's good because they have Long Range Nuclear Missles that could reach London if they were used so I think that it wouldn't be a good Idea to attack Iran. Or is this only a rumor circulating around.
There are no indications that this is anything other than a rumor. Attacking Iran would be costly, but not quite the way you suggest. First off, Iran does not yet have ballistic missiles capable of reaching London. The longest range missile currently in their arsenal has a 1,300 km range, not nearly far enough to reach England. They are working on longer range missiles. The ranges aren't known at present, and are speculated to be able to reach parts of Europe (such as Italy) but probably will not be able to strike as far as England any time soon.
As far as Iran's nuclear program, it's not completely clear how far along they are. We do know for certain that they have not tested any nuclear weapons (tests cannot be concealed, because they produce characteristic earthquakes which cannot be masked). Furthermore, while arming ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads is almost certainly the goal, accomplishing it is actually highly non-trivial. First, there's a practical weight limit for warheads on long-range ballistic missiles, and you can't just build any old nuclear bomb and expect it to be light enough. So the weight is a challenge. Secondly (though not quite as confortingly), getting maximum effect from a nuclear weapon actually requires that it be detonated at fairly precise altitudes. Too high, and the explosion disperses too much. Too low, and the ground absorbs too much of the blast. Timing for such a detonation is easy for bombs dropped by plane, but for long-range ballistic missiles, the speed is enormous, and if the timing isn't exact, you won't detonate in that optimal altitude window. It's not clear that the Iranians have the technology to do this reliably.
So we're not worried about Iran striking London. But we also don't feel up to actually invading and occupying Iran, because the costs would be astronomically high. So we're in no mood to topple the Iranian regime ourselves right now. And it's a bad idea to attack them without going full-tilt and toppling the mullahs, because you never want to wound an enemy and let him live, that's a guarantee that they'll strike at you. And they can, quite easily, by stirring up trouble in Iraq, flooding it with guerilla fighters and weapons (they're doing this to some degree already, but they could do much more if pressed). An actual attack on Iran, though not impossible, is highly unlikely.
