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Iowa Caucuses

Alferd_Packer

Philosopher
Alferd_Packer
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
8,746
Who here is actually hoping Ron Paul wins in Iowa just for the entertainment value alone?
 
Didn't Mike Huckabee win the Iowa Caucus in 2008? How far did that get him?

So much ado about nothing.

(and I'm originally from Iowa, so it's not like I wouldn't like to see Iowa be extremely important in the process, but I am also realistic - just because Jimmy Carter rode the Iowa caucus to a nomination in 1980 doesn't mean that it has meant much in any other year)

(Stupid anecdote: visiting my folks last weekend, we planned a family get together at our favorite local pizza joint; alas, we had to move to a different location because Newt was going to be at the other pizza place that same night; we drove by it when Newt was supposed to be there but didn't see any signs of flurry or activity; he might have been late, though)
 
Paul is the natural protest vote and, as the Democrats are not holding their own caucus, they are free to distort the GOP caucus proceedings in any way they think will be the most fun embarrassing/entertaining/monkey-wrenching.
 
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Alferd_Packer said:
Who here is actually hoping Ron Paul wins in Iowa just for the entertainment value alone?
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I hope he does, and not just for the entertainment value. I hope he gets the Republican nomination.

Ain't gonna happen! I hear you say. I agree but it doesn't hurt to hope, does it?
 
What time do these Iowa Caucuses things start? Isn't it a bit strange to have them on a weekday? Wouldn't it be better to have them on a Sunday or a national holiday to let more people turn up?

What happens if you can't be there all day to listen to the speeches and move from one part of the room to the other? Can this be done by proxy?
 
angrysoba said:
What time do these Iowa Caucuses things start? Isn't it a bit strange to have them on a weekday? Wouldn't it be better to have them on a Sunday or a national holiday to let more people turn up?
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They are mostly at night, aren't they?
 
Yeah, since they usually hold them in the local schools.

I heard that only about 120 thousand people participate in these things and that on the Republican side, that number is made up largely of evangelical christians.

Which would explain a lot.

Maybe we'll get to see a frothy Santorum surge.
 
angrysoba said:
What time do these Iowa Caucuses things start? Isn't it a bit strange to have them on a weekday? Wouldn't it be better to have them on a Sunday or a national holiday to let more people turn up?

What happens if you can't be there all day to listen to the speeches and move from one part of the room to the other? Can this be done by proxy?
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Caucuses start at 7 pm and will probably be over by 9 pm. My state doesn't allow proxies at caucuses, but other states may have different rules.

Caucus meetings tend to be rather low key events. Mostly it's the party activists who show up. They talk for a while, take one or more polls and select delegates to represent the precinct at a county assembly based on the results.
 
As Rachel Maddow pointed out (a little late, but better than not at all), the caucuses in Iowa for Democrats are usually quite different from the caucuses for Republicans. For Republicans in the past several decades, the caucuses have been a freak show and generally of little or no consequence to the eventual nomination or election. For the Democrats, the process tends to be a little more thoughtful and quite a bit more reflective of the election.

Also, Iowa acts as kind of a "filter" for candidates who can't cut it. And if you've ever cleaned out a filter of any kind, you might realize that being a filter isn't exactly enviable.
 
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The whole primary process is screwed up and crazy. Now news is being made because Andrea Mitchell has said that Iowa is "too white to matter." Well, Iowa is white, but it matters. Maybe it matters a bit too much. I can only imagine how Republicans would react if California was the first state in the election season, disproportionately responsible for our candidates. "They have hordes of latinos, that's where you find Hollywood (which means Jews), and the gay population is out of control. But this is about Ron Paul.

I hope he wins. At least he brings dreaded "empathy" to his foreign policy, asking questions about how fellow Republicans would react if China put subs off our coast in the gulf of Mexico. At least he's not going down this road of bombing the hell out of Iran (brought to you by the people responsible for Iraq).

From a perspective of self-interest, I'd rather have a Romney presidency, but Paul's bringing up arguments that can be found no where in the mainstream. Hell, he gets points just for thumbing his nose at the Israel Lobby.
 
Cain said:
The whole primary process is screwed up and crazy. Now news is being made because Andrea Mitchell has said that Iowa is "too white to matter." Well, Iowa is white, but it matters. Maybe it matters a bit too much. I can only imagine how Republicans would react if California was the first state in the election season, disproportionately responsible for our candidates. "They have hordes of latinos, that's where you find Hollywood (which means Jews), and the gay population is out of control. But this is about Ron Paul.
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I don't believe the comment was about the population of Iowa as much as it was about the selection of GOP caucus participants.

That is, I don't think it's a complaint that Iowa's population demographics is terribly far out of line with that of the nation, but that the demographics of the GOP caucus are out of line. . .even with the national demographics of the GOP.

If California had a caucus and selected as its participants primarily Hollywood moguls, then the comparison would be valid.
 
When I was an Iowa resident, I attended some caucuses and skipped others. The ones I skipped were sometimes because I couldn't fit the thing into my schedule, and sometimes because I was in a district where a caucus was a damned waste of time. (In some districts, the outcome is practically decided upon before the damned thing begins; and you know who the movers and shakers and troublemakers and delegate-wannabes are; and there is virtually zero chance that your voice or presence will add anything. It is a classic example of an empty gesture.)

Anyway, in less than 24 hours, the situation in Iowa will abruptly change. All the obnoxious TV ads will stop--for a long while. All of the traffic jams caused by candidate public appearances will disappear. All of the annoying phone calls will cease, and the peace will be welcome. All of the media celebrities and their bothersome entourages will vanish. Out-of-state manipulators will check out and leave no forwarding addresses. State and local governmental resources for enhancement of the State's public image will be scaled back. The gravy train of cash for those in the hospitality business will dry up overnight. Vocal protestors suddenly will become less vocal and less visible. No candidate will give a crap about Iowa until around October or November, and even then, Iowa will be a mere brief stop and a trite airport stump speech on the way to some venue with a bigger population and more electoral votes.

What really amazing, though, is that there are some other States that actually WANT this "first" role for themselves. Actually, they want what they perceive as the fame, and what they perceive as the political clout, and of course they really want the visitors' dollars, but they don't have a clue about all of the other headaches that come along with it.
 
pgwenthold said:
They are mostly at night, aren't they?
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Alferd_Packer said:
Yeah, since they usually hold them in the local schools.

I heard that only about 120 thousand people participate in these things and that on the Republican side, that number is made up largely of evangelical christians.

Which would explain a lot.

Maybe we'll get to see a frothy Santorum surge.
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Kestrel said:
Caucuses start at 7 pm and will probably be over by 9 pm. My state doesn't allow proxies at caucuses, but other states may have different rules.

Caucus meetings tend to be rather low key events. Mostly it's the party activists who show up. They talk for a while, take one or more polls and select delegates to represent the precinct at a county assembly based on the results.
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Thanks for the answers. That makes sense. I actually quite like the idea of them but I wonder what people make of the fact that there is no secret ballot.

Sorry, I shouldn't derail this thread. Is Ron Paul winning yet?:D
 
angrysoba said:
I wonder what people make of the fact that there is no secret ballot.
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I don't think it matters because the caucus selection is non binding on the convention delgates.

In other words, even if Michele Bachmann were to win today, come time for the convention, those delagates are not obligated to vote for her and they won't.
 
Alferd_Packer said:
I don't think it matters because the caucus selection is non binding on the convention delgates.

In other words, even if Michele Bachmann were to win today, come time for the convention, those delagates are not obligated to vote for her and they won't.
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I think that's a trade off for being the first state in the GOP primary. Iowa has opted to be a leader in the early race even if it ends up being a follower at the GOP convention.

In fact, the situation you describe is almost sure to happen if the winner of the Iowa caucus is a candidate that ends up crashing, burning and dropping out of the race prior to the convention.
 
Given that the news is reporting that many (most?) people there are still undecided, I will say that Ron Paul will not prevail. Though he has done well in their polls, I think there is a big difference in who (or whose ideas) someone says they like, and who they will vote for, for reals. So my guess is Romney.
 
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