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Hybrid warfare in the 2020s

jimbob

Uncritical "thinker"
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jimbob
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There have been several instances of what looks like hybrid warfare,

The most recent high profile one being the severing of data cables in the Baltic

www.lloydslist.com

Has Denmark challenged the right of innocent passage? Watch Yi Peng 3 to find out

The swift and aggressive response to Yi Peng 3 is insightful and suggests a co-ordinated decision by Nato allies
www.lloydslist.com www.lloydslist.com

But also instances of drone swarms around USAF bases in the US and UK that I am aware of as well as other sensitive instillations and vessels


search.app

Adversary Drones Are Spying On The U.S. And The Pentagon Acts Like They're UFOs

The U.S. military seems aloof to the fact that it's being toyed with by a terrestrial adversary and key capabilities may be compromised as a result.
search.app search.app

This has just started to gain attention in the mainstream press, for example



I thought it worth its own thread
 
Is it actually a thing or just a fear? Well, we know the Russians indulge in it via encouraging mass migration at western borders. As for the drones over US airfields in the UK recently, it might not be hybrid warfare except that everyone is on the alert for hostile (Russian?) activity. People are twitchy. There were some four or five 'security' incidents in the UK in one day, with two controlled explosions over two days, just yesterday at Euston Station and Friday at the US Embassy. Is this a symptom of anything? <shrug> I don't know.
 
<aside> Is that why all the trains out of Euston were cancelled? Rescuing our son's stranded GF and getting her back to Manchester used up my day yesterday. Bloody Putin. Or farmers. Or whoever it is today.
 
Arson and bomb attacks are pretty serious
Both from before the invasion
Today, the Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs briefed the North Atlantic Council on activities by Russian operatives inside the Czech Republic, which resulted in the explosions in 2014 of ammunition storage depots at Vrbetice. The explosion caused the deaths of two people who worked at the site, for which Allies express their condolences, as well as very substantial material damage.
The Minister confirmed that the Czech authorities have identified two Russian intelligence operatives as having been responsible for the explosion – the same two Russian intelligence operatives who remain wanted by the United Kingdom authorities in relation to the attack carried out in Salisbury in 2018 using a military-grade Novichok nerve agent of a type developed by Russia.
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And recent

www.euronews.com

Is Russia behind recent arson attacks in Europe?

Incidents in Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the UK have led to suspicions that Moscow is trying to sabotage European countries for backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
www.euronews.com www.euronews.com
 
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dudalb said:
I have to wonder how much RUssia is behind the turmoil in France and Romania.
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We know that Russia funds French right-extremists, because this has been uncovered several times, and Russia’s bot-army is active in all elections in Europe. I know next to nothing about Romania, but it would be unlikely if Russia is not involved.
 
Interesting video by a Danish defence analyst, on how Russia is likely to escalate its hybrid warfare and some possible approaches to discouraging some of the maritime infrastructure attacks.

 
steenkh said:
We know that Russia funds French right-extremists, because this has been uncovered several times, and Russia’s bot-army is active in all elections in Europe. I know next to nothing about Romania, but it would be unlikely if Russia is not involved.
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The far right politician who "came first" in the thrown out elections has strong ties to both the FSB and the Romanian Securitate, both secret police groups want neo-nazis in power in Romania because it worked out so well the first time.
 
Vixen said:
Is it actually a thing or just a fear? Well, we know the Russians indulge in it via encouraging mass migration at western borders. As for the drones over US airfields in the UK recently, it might not be hybrid warfare except that everyone is on the alert for hostile (Russian?) activity. People are twitchy. There were some four or five 'security' incidents in the UK in one day, with two controlled explosions over two days, just yesterday at Euston Station and Friday at the US Embassy. Is this a symptom of anything? <shrug> I don't know.
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Are you kidding? Assassination attempt on the CEO of Rheinmetall. Sending firebombs with DHL, Novichok poisonings, sabotage against UK weapons manufacturers facilities etc. etc. At some point some country is going to invoke article 4/5. Then we'll see what happens.
 
Hercules Rockefeller said:
Are you kidding? Assassination attempt on the CEO of Rheinmetall. Sending firebombs with DHL, Novichok poisonings, sabotage against UK weapons manufacturers facilities etc. etc. At some point some country is going to invoke article 4/5. Then we'll see what happens.
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Sure, since then we've had the Eagle-S escapade. Finns know exactly what Russian tactics are made of. Helicopter/military/ special police swoop, fully armed, expecting resistance, although there was none, in the event. Ship chockablock with spyware.
 
NATO taking part in Finnish and Estonian waters.
HS in Tallinn |The flagship of the NATO naval division, the Dutch frigate Tromp, and two other ships of the NATO Baltic Sea Watch operation arrived in Tallinn on the night before Friday. HS was able to reach Tromp's bridge.
The Tromp is intended to protect undersea connections from sabotage at least until the end of February.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the operation in the Baltic Sea on Tuesday in Helsinki. Operation Baltic Sentry has now arrived in the Gulf of Finland.
"We are not only at sea, but also in the air and even in space. We have a whole network now over the Baltic Sea. We are monitoring what is happening," said Commodore Arjen S. Warnaar on the deck of Trompi.
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It's in Finnish
www.hs.fi

HS Tallinnassa | Naton operaatio ”Itämeren vartio” alkoi – Tältä näyttää Suomenlahtea valvovan Trompin komentosillalla

Naton laivasto-osaston lippulaiva eli hollantilainen fregatti Tromp ja kaksi muuta Nato Itämeren vartio -operaation alusta saapui perjantain vastaisena yönä Tallinnaan. HS pääsi Trompin komentosillalle.
www.hs.fi www.hs.fi
 
steenkh said:
Washington Post article:
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say

Apparently, U.S. and European security services on the basis of investigations and intercepted messages now think these were “accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels.”
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Though there are incidents happening very regularly around Taiwan:

thediplomat.com

Another Severed Submarine Cable Raises Alarm in Taiwan

A series of incidents, both at home and in Europe, stoked concerns about Chinese attempts to disrupt telecommunications in Taiwan.
thediplomat.com
 
Even if the incidents in the Baltic Sea actually were accidents caused by incompetents, there is no doubt that states like Russia and China can be inspired to cause their own “accidents”.
 
steenkh said:
Washington Post article:
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say

Apparently, U.S. and European security services on the basis of investigations and intercepted messages now think these were “accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels.”
Click to expand...
The WP article seems based on the fact Swedish and Danish authorities let New-New-Polar vessel go on its way without further action. That doesn't mean the cable cutting via an anchor was an established accident. As for the Eagle-S vessel, it is still impounded, subject to the Cook Islands-registered owner making obligatory repairs to regulatory shortcomings, and no conclusion has yet been reached about the crew's culpability in the underwater cable damage.

According to WP, however, Finnish authorities have warned that it is impossible to rule out Russian involvement. The story does not clarify which Finnish intelligence service is being referred to.

Later in the story, it is reported that the investigation into the Eagle S incident is being led by the KRP, whose spokesperson told WP that “the investigation is still ongoing, and it is too early to draw final conclusions about the causes of the damage.”

In a WP article, MEP Pekka Toveri (Kok) describes the cable breaks in the Baltic Sea as "typical hybrid operations by Moscow" and calls the conclusions that the incidents were accidents "complete nonsense".

“The most important thing in all hybrid operations is deniability,” Toveri says in the story, referring to the fact that the Russian security service may well have simply succeeded in covering its tracks well.

Mike Plunkett, a naval expert at the intelligence firm Janes, also says in the publication that the probability of three similar incidents is "disappearingly small".

“In addition to the very loud splashing, there is a lot of noise from the anchor chains being fed out of the hawse holes,” Plunkett says in the story.

Story updated on January 19, 2025 at 5:56 PM: Added comment from KRP's spokesperson to the Washington Post.
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ILTA-SANOMAT


By the way, Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos who has gone full-scale pro-Trump (read= Putin operative).

The Washington Post is the largest and oldest newspaper in Washington, D.C. It is now part of Nash Holdings, owned by Jeff Bezos. wiki
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steenkh said:
Washington Post article:
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say

Apparently, U.S. and European security services on the basis of investigations and intercepted messages now think these were “accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels.”
Click to expand...
There's no way that's what they actually think. What this tells us that the West's strategy at the moment is still to pretend Russian sabotage is not deliberate and ignore the provocation. Russia wants to bring the war home to Europe; they want our media to talk about that and for us to feel vulnerable and divert resources to our own protection and away from helping Ukraine.
 
Re the Eagle-S affair. Last week the captain, from Georgia iirc, and a crew member requested leave to travel (at the moment they can't leave the country whilst investigations are still underway). In short, the court denied the applications.

Washington Post claims it is agreed between the relevant nations that the cable cutting is 'an accident' but some intelligence commentators have claimed that this is a softly-softly game of not giving Russia what it wants: an accusation of provocation. Plus, a key element of hybrid warfare is that of 'plausible deniability', so yes on the one hand the Eagle-S anchor dragging along on the seabed could just be an accident...or...? But we know the highest level of security police operatives are involved in the investigation even if they refuse to directly name Russia.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
There's no way that's what they actually think. What this tells us that the West's strategy at the moment is still to pretend Russian sabotage is not deliberate and ignore the provocation. Russia wants to bring the war home to Europe; they want our media to talk about that and for us to feel vulnerable and divert resources to our own protection and away from helping Ukraine.
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Ironically, the resources Europe would divert to defending against hybrid warfare attacks aren't the resources they'd send to support Ukraine in the conventional war being fought there.

Also, it seems that most of Europe has long since reached the conclusin that the best way to protect themselves from Russia is to help Ukraine.
 
The Wirecard fugitive, Russian intelligence and a Bulgarian spy ring - https://on.ft.com/4jiS2OX via @FT
Following the attempted poisoning of the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in 2018, the British government and its European allies expelled more than 600 Russian officials from across the continent, of whom more than 400 are thought to have been spies. According to evidence in the trial given by Matthew Collins, the UK’s deputy national security adviser, the resulting implosion in Russian intelligence networks forced Moscow to increasingly lean on non-Russian nationals to conduct espionage.
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Spotting an opportunity, it seems that Marsalek found a group of Bulgarians to travel and work at arm’s length for the Russian state.
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A Twitter mutual said he'd seen claims that the gig economy was good for outsourced intelligence
 
Edited out the statement that was a step too far from the evidence

The cyber attack on M&S and the Co-op was instigated by the GRU according to the UK and other western government.ls.

www.lbc.co.uk

Russian military hackers codenamed 'Fancy Bear' behind sustained cyber attacks targeting UK firms | LBC

A Russian military cyber unit codenamed Fancy Bear has carried out a string of cyber attacks on UK defence, transport hubs and shipping over the last two years, GCHQ has said.
www.lbc.co.uk www.lbc.co.uk

PDF in link

 
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More on the Russian merchant vessel shadow fleet probably being used for hybrid warfare.

Nothing solid, but lots of circumstantial evidence. Which is what Russia wants. As a lot of the message is creating the uncertainty.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Are Russian cargo ships operating drones in Europe?

A Russian-crewed cargo ship has attracted attention after its movements coincided with drone incursions over German military installations.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk ukdefencejournal.org.uk
 
Vixen said:
(The last was the Eagle and whose captain's court case came to no avail as it was in international waters outside of Finnish jurisdiction.)
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Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
 
steenkh said:
Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
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Looks like the same lawyer who defended the Eagle S and got it thrown out is also commenting on this lot.

Lawyer Herman Ljungberg, who is known for the Eagle S case, tells MTV News that he is assisting the shipping company of the Fitburg.

Fitburg is owned by the Istanbul-registered Fitburg Shipping company, but its shipping company is also Istanbul-based Albros Shipping & Trading. The companies operate at the same address. IL https://www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/48ce043f-e8c1-43c9-a003-ec775e242272
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The Russian ambassadors are offering legal assistance for any of the arrested being Russian citizens.

See the video here of the Fitburg anchor. (Bonus point: spot the automatic EPIRB on the bridge wing.)

www.iltalehti.fi

Poliisilta uutta tietoa: Tämä ankkuri on Fitburg-tutkinnan pääkohteena

Tutkinnan pääkohteena on aluksen keula-ankkuri, jonka Rajavartiolaitos havaitsi meressä Suomenlahdella, kertoo krp:n rikosylikomisario.
www.iltalehti.fi www.iltalehti.fi

It is currently docked under police investigation at Kantvik, Kirkkonummi.
 
steenkh said:
Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
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Well, it looks as though it has ramped up suspiciously.

Link for up to 3 readings.


Baltic countries on alert after series of suspicious undersea cable outages - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/e1bcd989-9bbf-409d-b56d-3b0779e63732 via @FT

Baltic countries on alert after series of suspicious undersea cable outages
Six incidents in six days follow a year without any reports of damage to underwater infrastructure
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There's been a suspicious (to me) amount of waving this away as incompetent crews on poor-condition ships at a time when there's increased traffic, which I think is just their attempt not to let on that they know perfectly well it's deliberate and the Russians are doing it to frighten the public in Western nations that the Ukrainian war will affect them too if they interfere. So they're calling it a series of accidents to blunt Russia's threats.

... Latvian authorities have searched a ship suspected of damaging an undersea optic cable in the Baltic, the sixth outage or damage to an underwater cable in the region in as many days
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Not good.
 
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