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Hybrid warfare in the 2020s

Re the Eagle-S affair. Last week the captain, from Georgia iirc, and a crew member requested leave to travel (at the moment they can't leave the country whilst investigations are still underway). In short, the court denied the applications.

Washington Post claims it is agreed between the relevant nations that the cable cutting is 'an accident' but some intelligence commentators have claimed that this is a softly-softly game of not giving Russia what it wants: an accusation of provocation. Plus, a key element of hybrid warfare is that of 'plausible deniability', so yes on the one hand the Eagle-S anchor dragging along on the seabed could just be an accident...or...? But we know the highest level of security police operatives are involved in the investigation even if they refuse to directly name Russia.
 
Jack by the hedge said:
There's no way that's what they actually think. What this tells us that the West's strategy at the moment is still to pretend Russian sabotage is not deliberate and ignore the provocation. Russia wants to bring the war home to Europe; they want our media to talk about that and for us to feel vulnerable and divert resources to our own protection and away from helping Ukraine.
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Ironically, the resources Europe would divert to defending against hybrid warfare attacks aren't the resources they'd send to support Ukraine in the conventional war being fought there.

Also, it seems that most of Europe has long since reached the conclusin that the best way to protect themselves from Russia is to help Ukraine.
 
The Wirecard fugitive, Russian intelligence and a Bulgarian spy ring - https://on.ft.com/4jiS2OX via @FT
Following the attempted poisoning of the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in 2018, the British government and its European allies expelled more than 600 Russian officials from across the continent, of whom more than 400 are thought to have been spies. According to evidence in the trial given by Matthew Collins, the UK’s deputy national security adviser, the resulting implosion in Russian intelligence networks forced Moscow to increasingly lean on non-Russian nationals to conduct espionage.
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Spotting an opportunity, it seems that Marsalek found a group of Bulgarians to travel and work at arm’s length for the Russian state.
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A Twitter mutual said he'd seen claims that the gig economy was good for outsourced intelligence
 
Edited out the statement that was a step too far from the evidence

The cyber attack on M&S and the Co-op was instigated by the GRU according to the UK and other western government.ls.

www.lbc.co.uk

Russian military hackers codenamed 'Fancy Bear' behind sustained cyber attacks targeting UK firms | LBC

A Russian military cyber unit codenamed Fancy Bear has carried out a string of cyber attacks on UK defence, transport hubs and shipping over the last two years, GCHQ has said.
www.lbc.co.uk www.lbc.co.uk

PDF in link

 
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More on the Russian merchant vessel shadow fleet probably being used for hybrid warfare.

Nothing solid, but lots of circumstantial evidence. Which is what Russia wants. As a lot of the message is creating the uncertainty.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Are Russian cargo ships operating drones in Europe?

A Russian-crewed cargo ship has attracted attention after its movements coincided with drone incursions over German military installations.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk ukdefencejournal.org.uk
 
Vixen said:
(The last was the Eagle and whose captain's court case came to no avail as it was in international waters outside of Finnish jurisdiction.)
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Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
 
steenkh said:
Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
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Looks like the same lawyer who defended the Eagle S and got it thrown out is also commenting on this lot.

Lawyer Herman Ljungberg, who is known for the Eagle S case, tells MTV News that he is assisting the shipping company of the Fitburg.

Fitburg is owned by the Istanbul-registered Fitburg Shipping company, but its shipping company is also Istanbul-based Albros Shipping & Trading. The companies operate at the same address. IL https://www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/48ce043f-e8c1-43c9-a003-ec775e242272
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The Russian ambassadors are offering legal assistance for any of the arrested being Russian citizens.

See the video here of the Fitburg anchor. (Bonus point: spot the automatic EPIRB on the bridge wing.)

www.iltalehti.fi

Poliisilta uutta tietoa: Tämä ankkuri on Fitburg-tutkinnan pääkohteena

Tutkinnan pääkohteena on aluksen keula-ankkuri, jonka Rajavartiolaitos havaitsi meressä Suomenlahdella, kertoo krp:n rikosylikomisario.
www.iltalehti.fi www.iltalehti.fi

It is currently docked under police investigation at Kantvik, Kirkkonummi.
 
steenkh said:
Yes, I read the same thing in my local newspaper. I really wonder if this means that ships in general can cut cables in international waters without consequences?
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Well, it looks as though it has ramped up suspiciously.

Link for up to 3 readings.


Baltic countries on alert after series of suspicious undersea cable outages - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/e1bcd989-9bbf-409d-b56d-3b0779e63732 via @FT

Baltic countries on alert after series of suspicious undersea cable outages
Six incidents in six days follow a year without any reports of damage to underwater infrastructure
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There's been a suspicious (to me) amount of waving this away as incompetent crews on poor-condition ships at a time when there's increased traffic, which I think is just their attempt not to let on that they know perfectly well it's deliberate and the Russians are doing it to frighten the public in Western nations that the Ukrainian war will affect them too if they interfere. So they're calling it a series of accidents to blunt Russia's threats.

... Latvian authorities have searched a ship suspected of damaging an undersea optic cable in the Baltic, the sixth outage or damage to an underwater cable in the region in as many days
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Not good.
 
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