Human extinction

[CapelDodger]

I note nobody has mentioned the possibility of synthetic evolution through machine / organism synthesis or gene engineering. While this may still be science fiction, it becomes more possible each year and is a route quite inaccessible to any previous life form.

I think something else will feature much earlier : embryo selection. It's already happening on a limited scale, the principles are established and knowledge can only expand, the technology will improve. Research will be well-funded because rich people will take a great interest. And it won't be cheap-and-cheerful. The elite will, after a few generations, have a much stronger argument for being "better-bred" than any aristocracy ever has.

In Europe aristocratic selective breeding led to cretinism, haemophilia and Batty Prince Charlie. But with embryo selection the in-breeding problems can be avoided. A global elite could quickly become a genetically isolated population and wham, instant speciation. Nasty thought, but I can't help thinking things are going in that general direction.

 

[tracer]

Hmm, we are doing a good job so far. I mean, 6 billion is a pretty big number. Sure we are taking other species out right and left, but you gotta admit, we are unique.

We are the cyanobacteria of the modern world!

WOOOOO!!! GO US!!!!!!

 

[AmateurScientist]

Consider that 99% of all species that ever existed are extinct. I don't think humans are on a different path. Those that think we are going to get off this planet are watching way too much Star Trek. I don't care a whit about our species. Although we think we are great, we are too stupid to survive. We will suffocate in our own waste. I doubt we have another ten thousand years. Relative to other species like the dinosaurs , that is pretty short lived.
Life is more resilient. I do think life will go on on this planet. Perhaps in a billion years another more benevolent species will evolve from the cockroach.

Ha Ha

You win this thread.

We are hardly special in the cosmic scheme of things, or even in the biological scheme. We are special only in our imaginations.

We evolved to live on earth. We're hardly likely to find another planet that we can reach that is just the right size, has the right composition of elements and atmosphere, has a single star just the right distance away, with a moon of just the right size at just the right distance, etc. etc. etc. The particular circumstances of our own planet and our own solar system at these particular stages of their respective evolutions are what have allowed for our existence. Without those circumstances, we simply wouldn't exist. It's that simple.

We were born on this planet and we will die on this planet. We will die far sooner than the planet will, and far sooner than life on earth will. Presuming otherwise is rather hubristic.

AS

 

[Morchella]

You win this thread.

We are hardly special in the cosmic scheme of things, or even in the biological scheme. We are special only in our imaginations.

We evolved to live on earth. We're hardly likely to find another planet that we can reach that is just the right size, has the right composition of elements and atmosphere, has a single star just the right distance away, with a moon of just the right size at just the right distance, etc. etc. etc. The particular circumstances of our own planet and our own solar system at these particular stages of their respective evolutions are what have allowed for our existence. Without those circumstances, we simply wouldn't exist. It's that simple.

We were born on this planet and we will die on this planet. We will die far sooner than the planet will, and far sooner than life on earth will. Presuming otherwise is rather hubristic.

AS

Finally someone else that knows what is really going on. I can hardly believe that this forum with all the skeptics still believe that humans are going to get off this planet.
Consider that the nearest star is 3 light years away. Who is going to man a spaceship for a hundred generations or more to find out that the nearest star does not have a habitable planet. Space might be the final frontier .... yes but people have no concept how far out there the stars are or how unique our existence is.
I think Einstein was much smarter than me and he said that travel faster than the speed of light is impossible. The woo woos will never accept that FACT.
Even more ridiculous are those that think we will genetically engineer a new species that is improved. That is such profound naivete. Eugenics was discredited a long time ago. One requirement for speciation is isolation. That is not going to happen in the future where humans interact globally. I think it is more likely that some diabolical tinkerer will come up with a human / chimp hybrid and our species will go backwards.
Yes, I am a pessimist because for everyone who is paid not to breed there are a million more who will breed willy nilly. For every time you ride your bicycle to work there are a million more that will drive their hummer to negate anything you do. There is no hope for our environment. Global warming is unstoppable.
I think the human species is wonderful and unique and you should enjoy the life you have. Trying to save our species from itself is a futile endeavor though. We are not that great. We don't deserve anything. If we are anything "special" then we should all be wearing helmets.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

Aw, this thread left off on such a cynical note.

My point, for the most part, is if we don't get off this rock, we will die out on it, if not before it. This rock won't be around forever.

I think most people realize that, and that is why most people want to believe that some deity will give them everlasting life elsewhere other than in "physical" life.

Is it too horrible to believe that life ends, forever? I guess so. That is reality though. So people kill each other to prove their deity is the only one that will give them everlasting life for living the way they imagine their diety wants them to. That means that most people who ever lived must be in some hell now, since most people disagree on their deities and the way people "are supposed to live" to please these deities. Frankly, I'd rather life just ended.

So, this planet won't be around forever. Why is it so unrealistic to believe we humans can't find some way to get some of their generations on some flying biosphere they can sustain by pillaging resources from lifeless planets and recycling? We can already make artificial sunlight, recycle water, blah blah. Is it really so unfathomable?

 

[CapelDodger]

Finally someone else that knows what is really going on. I can hardly believe that this forum with all the skeptics still believe that humans are going to get off this planet.
Consider that the nearest star is 3 light years away. Who is going to man a spaceship for a hundred generations or more to find out that the nearest star does not have a habitable planet.

I rather think probes would be sent first. We could be sending probes to nearby stars right now. (I suspect one reason we're not is that the timescale of the project would be greater than one scientific-career-length .) I hope one will be sent in my lifetime, after the curtain's finally dropped on the ISS tragedy and money becomes available.

I don't dismiss out-of-hand the idea that some group will one day get the resources together (and have the motivation) to launch an off-world colonial enterprise. Embryo-freezing is current technology, after all, so an enormous gene-pool wouldn't be very bulky. That hardly addresses all the problems, of course, but are any of them really insurmountable?

Even more ridiculous are those that think we will genetically engineer a new species that is improved. That is such profound naivete. Eugenics was discredited a long time ago.

Mostly be association, let's face it. The big problem is deciding what "improved" means. More "Aryan"? More "intelligent"? Healthier? Less aggressive and more cooperative? More open to Jesus?

Looked at dispassionately, eugnics has a lot more to work with today than it did in the 19th and early 20thCE. It can't be discredited by the earlier experience.

One requirement for speciation is isolation. That is not going to happen in the future where humans interact globally.

Is that the future where humanity is drowning in its own waste? That could put a serious brake on globalisation. If the whole world goes into survivalist mode ... well, consider how inbred existing survivalists are, and they tend towards blood-purity notions. Don't write eugenics off yet, or assume that miscegenation laws are things only of the past.

Yes, I am a pessimist because for everyone who is paid not to breed there are a million more who will breed willy nilly.

Most folk who live in my neighbourhood are fine folk. Sadly, the ones that live like pigs are the ones that breed like rabbits .

When push comes to shove, of course, those are the ones who'll get the shove. And we can pay people to do the shoving! You see how it all comes together?

For every time you ride your bicycle to work there are a million more that will drive their hummer to negate anything you do. There is no hope for our environment. Global warming is unstoppable.

Can't argue with that. City-folk will throw their excrement out of the window unless you give them an easier option. Heck, their parents did it, their parents did it, the world didn't come to an end. All that stuff about disease? Well, this chap down the pub says it's all crap ...

I think the human species is wonderful and unique and you should enjoy the life you have. Trying to save our species from itself is a futile endeavor though. We are not that great. We don't deserve anything. If we are anything "special" then we should all be wearing helmets.

I am special! My Mum says so! That's a source nobody argues with.

Futile endeavours are so human, aren't they? Going down biting-and-scratching like cornered rats is a common reaction but deliberately throwing oneself into a ridiculously fanciful project is something different.

It's evident from this thread that some people actually care about the future survival of the species, way beyond the lifetime of their loved-ones. Care to the extent that they seem to find it startling that some people don't. That's the sort of emotion that spawns futile endeavours.

As that old song puts it :

"Can't avoid,
Can't reverse,
Energy-Death of the Universe"

 

[CapelDodger]

So, this planet won't be around forever. Why is it so unrealistic to believe we humans can't find some way to get some of their generations on some flying biosphere they can sustain by pillaging resources from lifeless planets and recycling?

Engineered habitats are an interesting subject, quite apart from the actual engineering. Cities are artificial, with associated vulnerabilities and flaws, but space-habitats would be on a completely different order. Environmentalism would not be a hard-sell when you're taught at school where the very air you breathe comes from. The (I think) Japanese aphorism that "The nail that sticks out must be hammered in" would apply in spades. We'd have to be talking very ordered societies. Which, of course, might be what their founders intended.

Can one really pillage from the lifeless? Without killing them first? "Utilise" would be less emotive . Of course, the first lifeless planet utilised might well be Earth. Come to think of it, "pillage" isn't necessarily inappropriate ...

 

[Hindmost]

Ok, a nit first...the nearest star is Alpha and Proxima Centaui stars and they are about 4.3 L-y away. You can check with wiki...it is considered a trinary system.

Although the probabilities are low, there is a chance that we will travel to another planet in the future. We can locate other planets with more sensitive instruments and if the planet is not too far away, an Orion Project type of vessel just might be able to make it. Recent discoveries indicate many solar systems in the galaxy. I believe we will have to survive a future crisis when there are too many people with too little energy to feed them all. When that occurs is open to speculation. If we make the transition and scientific thinking hasn't faltered, we might be able to start and looking to the stars.

glenn

 

[Soapy Sam]

Theres quite a lot of room in the Solar System.
And quite a lot of junk to build things with.

Interstellar can wait. There is nothing technologically impossible about colonising Mars and if we can globally warm one planet, we can possibly do it again. The main requirement seems to be thoughtlessness and we have that in abundance.

Nobody is talking about humans surviving "forever". But having human breeding populations on two planets is perfectly feasible, greatly reduces the chance of annihilation due to various scenarios and would surely lead to genetic distinction in time. This might easily add millennia to the lifespan of humanity. Not that I give a toss after about 2025.

 

[CapelDodger]

Interstellar can wait. There is nothing technologically impossible about colonising Mars and if we can globally warm one planet, we can possibly do it again. The main requirement seems to be thoughtlessness and we have that in abundance.

It seems to me that in an artificial off-world environment thoughtlessness will be a felony, quite possibly a capital one. "Sorry, I was miles away ...", well, one good shove and that soon stops being metaphorical. Seriously, societies will probably be very regimented, more Japanese - "The nail that sticks out must be hammered in" - than Western liberal-democratic.

Nobody is talking about humans surviving "forever". But having human breeding populations on two planets is perfectly feasible, greatly reduces the chance of annihilation due to various scenarios and would surely lead to genetic distinction in time. This might easily add millennia to the lifespan of humanity. Not that I give a toss after about 2025.

We all naturally hope that our friends and loved-ones (and living people generally) get to live out happy, fulfilled lives. Whether fulfillment involves continuing the species is down to them, to their natures and desires. I'm child-free but have six nepots, and care about my friends' children as well. When they start having children, I'll care about those people too.

I just don't care about the species. I can't accept that such a concern is instinctive, that idea makes no sense. I'm left wondering why anybody does care about it. Why do some people care about the genetic survival of their "race"? Is there a connection between the two concepts? Both are alien to me, so I find it all quite mysterious.

 

[Eos of the Eons]

I just want to see how it could happen (us getting to live away from this rock successfully). That would be fascinating and quite a HUGE feat. There would be massive recycling of everything if we were to survive on a man-made biosphere. There would be plants and animals, some kind of air system, artificial gravity. Could we feeble headed dimbulbs keep it all together and keep peace amongst the population?

Heck, we've failed so far on our own planet. "Biosphere 2" got weird losses of oxygen, and the whole thing came "crashing down" because of one unforseen variable. http://www.columbia.edu/cu/record/archives/vol19/vol19_iss31/record1931.22
http://www.bio2.com/

Soooo cool.

 

[Cuddles]

An important question on interstellar travel is what is the point? With our current technology it is perfectly possible to send spaceships all over the place to colonise other planets, but this would have no effect whatsoever on the Earth. Even if any of them were succesful we would probably never know about it because of the distances involved. The journey would take thousands of years, by which time it is unlikely that anyone would even remember they were out there, let alone care, and practical communication would be virtually impossible, since just saying hello to each other would take 10 years for just the closest systems.

Sending out colonists might be a nice idea, but meaningless ideals like "saving the human race" aside it would have no absolutely no impact on how we live here. For those of us living in this solar system, this is all we have. Other planets, maybe. Other stars, no.

 

[CapelDodger]

An important question on interstellar travel is what is the point?

We may see no obvious one, but a cult might. Conjure your own overt motivation, behind it would be the founder's egotism. Founder of a whole civilisation! Even Theodore Herzl never dreamed of that.

Sending out colonists might be a nice idea, but meaningless ideals like "saving the human race" aside it would have no absolutely no impact on how we live here. For those of us living in this solar system, this is all we have. Other planets, maybe. Other stars, no.

True enough, but for some people saving the race - be it the human race or their "race" - is clearly not meaningless. Nor is the idea of religious purity. All it takes is for some charismatic (and perhaps psychpathic) narcissist to muster the right following with enough resources and there it goes, into the wide black yonder.