How to test something based on "gut feeling"?

[Moochie]

First: I'm not claiming any supernatural abilities! You'll understand when you read what my "special powers" are

First, I want to provide a small anecdote which I will use as a basis for my question. It seems that my brain often is bloody good at keeping track of time. I can set the timer on the oven to, say, 20 minutes while waiting for a pizza then go watch TV. I forget about the pizza and suddenly a feeling of anxiety rushes over me as I'm reminded about the pizza and can't remember if I set the timer correctly. So I rush to the oven only to see the timer going "3...2...1...beeep beeep beeep".

I've seriously impressed friends and family at times - but it's hard to demonstrate under pressure because the feeling is indistinguishable from i.e. performance anxiety. Now, say that someone seriously claimed some power (slightly more impressive than being a lucky time-guesser ), but was at the mercy of their "gut feeling" which just didn't perform well under pressure. What would your advise be with regards to self-testing and probabilities - or any other advise you might think of (serious, please).

Now I'll just wait for a mix of replies from serious and well-thought advice, conspiracy theorists which claim that all sceptics would suppress any such results and morons who misread the entire post and thought I've made some ludicrous claim...

My first suggestion would be that you get a dictionary. "Advice" is spelled thus -- with a "c." Yet I keep seeing it here spelled as you spelled it, with an "s." Are you all illiterate?

For those with an interest in clear expression:

"advise" is the verb, meaning "give advice to."

"advice" is the noun, meaning "a proposal for an appropriate course of action."


M.

 

[RobbieGee]

I am quite literate, just less so in english than in norwegian and I did not have access to my dictionary at the time. I did think there was some difference between "advice" and "advise", but was not sure in which way. Thanks for clearing that up for me (I'm serious) - and I should at least have been congruent in my usage.

But let's not get off track - if anyone wishes to comment my spelling or grammar I'd be grateful to recieve a PM about it.

 

[Paul2]

Someone would sit down, and perhaps half way through the reading, I would feel my mind step to one side, so to speak, and the words that next came out of my mouth were not consciously prepared by me, almost as if it was my instinct directly speaking. I should stress here that I never normally tried to guess specific details about anyone's life – simply because I knew I couldn't do it – but this instinctive voice would come out with just such statements, e.g. that the person being read had three children, two boys and a girl, or it would name their specific career. These moments of unexplained insight did not last long, and I think I was sensible enough to know when they were over and not try to prolong them. But, invariably, what I'd said at those times was right.

You should refrain from concluding that you could accurately estimate whether, in these cases, you were invariably correct. Lots of mistakes and problems, that you may or may not know about, can crop up with making that estimation.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

There are many things which are not obvious at first but which there is evidence and a physical measurable mechanism. Having something supposedly relying on "vague" feelings is either not really relying on vague feelings, just something not yet identified but a mechanism nonetheless, or it isn't really occurring and all you have are coincidences and forgetting the misses, remembering the hits.

In other words, if you find that your esp or whatever it is really happens, then the data will show that. If the data doesn't show it, then you might believe it occurs, but you are mis-interpreting coincidental events.

I hear this same argument from the antivaxers all the time. They try to claim the people who supposedly suffer from vaccination side effects have some unique reaction. What the antivaxers don't get is that is what controls in a study are for. Unique reactions will be apparent when the experimental group has a different outcome than the control group. If it is rare enough, you need a very large sample size but you will see something in the data.

If you cannot measure an effect which is greater than the "no esp" control group, however you set up the experiment, then there was no effect.

 

[Kord]

You should refrain from concluding that you could accurately estimate whether, in these cases, you were invariably correct. Lots of mistakes and problems, that you may or may not know about, can crop up with making that estimation.

Yes, I understand that, but in these specific cases, the person I was reading confirmed that I was correct, so it wasn't an estimation. As I said, I am aware of the dangers of guessing, and did not do it. I did extrapolate about someone's nature - from the clues I picked up from their body language, facial tensions, etc. But in that particular situation, I feel that's fair enough: the person being read knows that's what you're doing and is free to disregard anything they don't find particularly accurate.

My inclination - based on experience - is to conclude that what looks like magic, when a person is, say, detecting a stranger's character with a degree of accuracy beyond normal, is actually just the result of years of experience, application, effort and interest in facets of human behaviour that most people don't notice because they think them inconsequential. However, I'm reluctant to see this as the only explanation, simply because there have been those rare moments when knowledge turned up that couldn't be attained by practice alone.

But I appreciate that I have a weak argument in support of this - i.e. largely anecdotal. So, I'll try and explain with a different example. I also used to dowse quite a bit - not so much for water, more for 'energy lines' around ancient sites (mostly in the UK). Such 'leylines' have largely been dismissed in recent years - at least in terms of 'energy' - by earth mysteries researchers. And I appreciate and largely sympathise with the JREF position on dowsing. Obviously, if no dowser has ever proved their ability under test conditions, then they are self-deluded. However, where I don't completely agree with the JREF stand, is that it's necessarily ultimately harmful to hold such beliefs. This assumes self-delusion to be the lasting state for such people.

In my case, I would not claim that the 'energies' I used to feel on my palms, or sense with my eyes, actually exist. And I accept that dowsing is not a viable activity in terms of reliably finding whatever things it claims to find. But what the practice of dowsing did for me was to get me out into the countryside with an open mind about what's in it. As I've got older, I've become less and less convinced that there are actual, material, energies to be found in the hills, so to speak. But I've become more convinced that our ancestors had a much better connection to the land they lived in than we do. Of course, one is free to conclude that the connection between person and place is no longer important. But for me it is, and while with the years I've become less sure about what actually lives in the land, I've become far more open to it. Which sounds like a paradox, I know, but it's one I'm happy with.

 

[Moochie]

I am quite literate, just less so in english than in norwegian and I did not have access to my dictionary at the time. I did think there was some difference between "advice" and "advise", but was not sure in which way. Thanks for clearing that up for me (I'm serious) - and I should at least have been congruent in my usage.

But let's not get off track - if anyone wishes to comment my spelling or grammar I'd be grateful to recieve a PM about it.

My apologies -- it was presumptuous of me.

(A general rule: 'i' before 'e' except after 'c' -- thus, 'receive' )



M.

 

[robinson]

B L T N

First: I'm not claiming any supernatural abilities! You'll understand when you read what my "special powers" are

On a technical note, this discussion doesn't belong here, but the question of how to test does. Because the same questions may apply to a challenge application or "paranormal" experience.

I've seriously impressed friends and family at times - but it's hard to demonstrate under pressure because the feeling is indistinguishable from i.e. performance anxiety. Now, say that someone seriously claimed some power (slightly more impressive than being a lucky time-guesser ), but was at the mercy of their "gut feeling" which just didn't perform well under pressure. What would your advise be with regards to self-testing and probabilities - or any other advise you might think of (serious, please).

The best option would be a skeptical but caring friend or associate, someone who doubts, but still holds you in good regard as a person. I say this from experience, as a hostile or negative minded person does indeed create such a toxic emotional atmosphere at times, that even normal abilities and skills can be skewed. Performance anxiety and public scrutiny are known to effect skilled athletes, musicians, speakers, normal talents. So an environment that is conducive to concentration, relaxation, and confidence are essential for some things. Especially so for subtle skills or efforts that require concentration and relaxation.

The person checking on your accuracy should also have rational/scientific skills enough to design a test that is not subjected to bias or error. It should be repeatable as well.

First: Now I'll just wait for a mix of replies from serious and well-thought advice, conspiracy theorists which claim that all sceptics would suppress any such results and morons who misread the entire post and thought I've made some ludicrous claim...

You seem to have an understanding of this forum. Have you been reading a while? From a scientific point of view, there are indeed gut-level feelings, insights, knowledge, and understandings. In fact, if you do a search on the Net there probably is a wealth of data about this. No doubt heavily skewed towards the wooish part of it, but science and research has shown that not only does the huge mass of nerves in your gut control many many things, as well as interact with your brain, this nerve mass also produces neurotransmitters and actually creates effects mental states. Its not just that we feel things in our guts, we actually do feel things in our guts. I recall a Dr. Pert back in 2002, who I think was at Georgetown University Medical Center then, spoke about a scientific basis for gut feelings. Research and everything. This concept, that gut feelings are a repeatable scientific event, was not greeted well by some scientist at all. Go figure.

She wasn't some woo either, back in the seventies she discovered the opiate receptors in the brain.

A few years back a friend at MIT was also telling me about the gut, all the neurotransmitters it produces, the amount of nerves that are really there, all wrapped around your organs, and how it is like another brain it is so large and complex. All the different things that are influenced by these nerves, the connections to the brain and other functions. I forgot about this until your topic. I would invite him here, but he will never ever shut up about this stuff, so I won't.

 

[Godmode]

Myself, I can decide when to wake up. It doesn't always work, for example if I'm extremely exhausted. It works better if I have a good reason (a flight to catch, for example). But if I have to get up before 4AM (this would be very rare for me), chances are that I will wake up within 15 minutes before that time. And I don't constantly keep waking up all night long, either.

I think this is pretty common. Just as you say, it probably won't work if you're too tired, but I have often gone to bed wanting to wake up at a certain time, and doing it. The "internal clock" we have is completely natural, and probably based partially on our heartbeats.
Here's an interesting article on the subject, more to do with the pizza then the waking up thing:
http://www.pigeon.psy.tufts.edu/psych26/church.htm

the church refers to Russel Church, not a religious thing

 

[Paul2]

Kord, my point didn't depend on whether you were correct, I agree that it was trivial for you to determine that yourself for any single case. My point hinged on whether you were *invariably* correct, which brings up the issue of whether you were correct enough, and with enough accuracy, to be the result of something other than coincidence. That is the determination that is a difficult one to make accurately without professional training.

 

[Kord]

Kord, my point didn't depend on whether you were correct, I agree that it was trivial for you to determine that yourself for any single case. My point hinged on whether you were *invariably* correct, which brings up the issue of whether you were correct enough, and with enough accuracy, to be the result of something other than coincidence. That is the determination that is a difficult one to make accurately without professional training.

Okay, I understand now. You make a good point, and I agree it's a difficult determination to make. I'll go away and think about this some more!

 

[Paul2]

Okay, I understand now. You make a good point, and I agree it's a difficult determination to make. I'll go away and think about this some more!

If only more people would say that! We all need to think about things more and make sure we're reaching the best conclusions we can.

 

[hellaeon]

late to this thread but I can say the same thing, I have an incredible sense of timing. However I play the drums, have for years and practice to a metronome.

 

[robinson]

If only more people would say that! We all need to think about things more and make sure we're reaching the best conclusions we can.

Excellent!

 

[fishbait]

I can set the timer on the oven to, say, 20 minutes while waiting for a pizza then go watch TV. I forget about the pizza and suddenly a feeling of anxiety rushes over me as I'm reminded about the pizza and can't remember if I set the timer correctly. So I rush to the oven only to see the timer going "3...2...1...beeep beeep beeep".

A fully cooked pizza is bound to fill the room with the aroma of fully cooked pizza. I often cook stuff in a toaster oven and suddenly become aware of the aroma of cooked food and go to check on the oven. More times than not, the timer is about to expire. Not so remarkable. I smell cooked food and respond to it.

Do you have any anecdotes that don't include sense cues?

 

[Grimoire]

A fully cooked pizza is bound to fill the room with the aroma of fully cooked pizza. I often cook stuff in a toaster oven and suddenly become aware of the aroma of cooked food and go to check on the oven. More times than not, the timer is about to expire. Not so remarkable. I smell cooked food and respond to it.

Do you have any anecdotes that don't include sense cues?

Gee, thanks for spoiling all the fun Captain Obvious.

 

[DRBUZZ0]

First: I'm not claiming any supernatural abilities! You'll understand when you read what my "special powers" are

First, I want to provide a small anecdote which I will use as a basis for my question. It seems that my brain often is bloody good at keeping track of time. I can set the timer on the oven to, say, 20 minutes while waiting for a pizza then go watch TV. I forget about the pizza and suddenly a feeling of anxiety rushes over me as I'm reminded about the pizza and can't remember if I set the timer correctly. So I rush to the oven only to see the timer going "3...2...1...beeep beeep beeep".

I've seriously impressed friends and family at times - but it's hard to demonstrate under pressure because the feeling is indistinguishable from i.e. performance anxiety. Now, say that someone seriously claimed some power (slightly more impressive than being a lucky time-guesser ), but was at the mercy of their "gut feeling" which just didn't perform well under pressure. What would your advise be with regards to self-testing and probabilities - or any other advise you might think of (serious, please).

Now I'll just wait for a mix of replies from serious and well-thought advice, conspiracy theorists which claim that all sceptics would suppress any such results and morons who misread the entire post and thought I've made some ludicrous claim...

Hi, Robbie. From what I see I don't think this would be able to qualify for the prize, however I'm not going to be a moron about this and say you are trying to pull something on us.

I think what you have is a demonstration of how complicated and strange the human mind can sometimes be. Freud has been discredited for many things, but he opened up the door to a lot by simply showing that there is more going on than that which we are explicitly conscious of. It's entirely possible that there's a little timer ticking in the back of your brain and you don't even realize it.

It's an interesting story, and it reminded me of some quirks some people I know have. For example, I know someone who can always seem to guess the time to within 5 minutes or 10 at the most, even when away from a clock for a long time and when the position of the sun is less than obvious. I also know we've all had the experience of "I know I forgot something" but not remembering what it is until later. The information was always there... but somehow we couldn't retrieve it.

So this really does not sound paranormal (at all) to me, and it isn't something that I think could easily be repeated or controlled, but still: I'm not calling you a liar and if it gets a few kicks with your friends, more power to ya! :-D

 

[strathmeyer]

Pizza makes a distinct sound when it is done cooking (and starts to burn.)

Hope this helps.

 

[Sybarite]

Here is a way to test your ability.

Set a timer on to 1 hour. Go lie in a bed. Get up when you think the timer is about to go off.
While this is boring, it's a reasonable test, and fairly repeatable. Most likely is that you'll get up after half an hour, tops.