How do you borrow 1.75 trillion?

As long as asset speculation/inflation is now defunct I don't expect to see any M3 issues.

I think the defaults will suck the M3 out of the economy and that's where the pain will come from.

sgs-m3.gif


http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Real asset value will come in line with the real economy....and is it gonna hurt any exposed.
 
While the US is definitely going downwards, it is not (yet) really so bad that lenders will not trust it to pay back. IIRC, projected debt/GDP is around 60%, which is considered sustainable. It doesn't leave too much room for growing even more during a future crisis, however.

How do we know what is sustainable? Well, multiply the interest by the debt level. So for a 4% interest and 60% debt/GDP, interest paid will be 2.4% of GDP. Which essentially means that there has to be a 2.4% tax rate covering everything produced in the country, just to pay the interest. Enough to hurt, but not unsustainable.
 
I just want to know who's willing to lend me $200. I'll pay them back by Mar 31.

If you want to lend me 1.7 trillion bucks, it'll take a little longer to pay you back.
 
While the US is definitely going downwards, it is not (yet) really so bad that lenders will not trust it to pay back. IIRC, projected debt/GDP is around 60%, which is considered sustainable. It doesn't leave too much room for growing even more during a future crisis, however.

How do we know what is sustainable? Well, multiply the interest by the debt level. So for a 4% interest and 60% debt/GDP, interest paid will be 2.4% of GDP. Which essentially means that there has to be a 2.4% tax rate covering everything produced in the country, just to pay the interest. Enough to hurt, but not unsustainable.

Except that pretty picture does not cover unfunded liabilities.....and should
Then not so pretty over time.

Worth the time - David Walker for US Comptroller on the real picture.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS2fI2p9iVs

THIS is health...

canada_debt_vs_gdp.gif


http://blogs.usask.ca/the_bolt/archive/2006/12/canadian_debt_gdp.html

and was damn hard to achieve and our pensions and UI are fully funded. ( over funded in the case of UI tho that may change this year )
 
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Hmm...let's see..a dollar bills weighs one gram. So 1.75 trillion dollars would weight 1.75 million metric tons. A Nimitz class aircraft carrier weighs around 100,000 metric tons.

So a pile of 1.75 trillion one dollar bills would weigh as much as 17 and a half aircraft carriers! **** that's a lot of money!
 
I wondered about the problem of deflasion, too little money to go around.

Have anybody tried the simple solution of printing/typing up some more and distribution them through goverment spending?
Like taxcuts or bonuses to goverment employes.

It sounds too simple, there must be a problem with it.
 
I wondered about the problem of deflasion, too little money to go around.

Have anybody tried the simple solution of printing/typing up some more and distribution them through goverment spending?
Like taxcuts or bonuses to goverment employes.

It sounds too simple, there must be a problem with it.

Actually, I think it does work. If there's a deflation problem.
 
Why would it then be considered a serius problem?

Deflation is a serious problem because it makes debt more expensive, and in the case of extreme deflation, it makes it impossible to pay off. So for the leveraged, these days, that's everyone and every company just about, it's bad.
 
Why would it then be considered a serius problem?

I'm sorry, I misunderstood. Your question is why is it a problem if you can just print money to fix it. I don't know enough about monetary policy to answer your question. Where's Francesca?
 
I'm sorry, I misunderstood. Your question is why is it a problem if you can just print money to fix it. I don't know enough about monetary policy to answer your question. Where's Francesca?

Lol at this thread. The main reason why debasing a currency to offset price deflation is problematic is because it's immoral. Whether by illegal counterfeiters or central bankers, money creation is a de facto transfer of wealth from the existing holders of the debased currency to the issuers of the new currency. It's no different than if they picked your pocket, but since the concept is slightly more abstract it is tolerated by modern society, strangely enough. Bankers get to decide where the new money goes, so I guess it's not so surprising who the beneficiaries of the recent bailouts have been.

Second, and no less important, stable prices are not ideal in an economy with changing (in this case, declining) productivity. It is the stability of domestic final demand (nominal spending) that is crucial for overall economic stability, not the general price level. Beside the fact that central banks shouldn't have a gun, they are aiming at the wrong target.

Third, the current crisis is the direct result of decades of inflationary monetary policy which has resulted in a number of excesses, from the financing of hair-brained business schemes to sub-prime mortgages. There is a natural limit to the degree that people will speculate on real-estate, regardless of how much funny money their would-be lenders have. That limit was reached, and you're witnessing the result. Exacerbating the cause of too much fiat money is not the solution.

This of course won't stop the inevitable. Neither will most people recognize the true cause of the problem, nor the inequity of the proposed solutions.
 
Generally good post but you miss a factor.....the M3 is dropping like a stone meaning the inverse of money creation through debt issuing by institutions chartered for fractional lending is contracting in the trillions of dollars scale. Dwarfing any stimulus. What was EU number 16 trillion in base assets at risk......
That's squeezing the bubble/speculative values out in a return to real values.

Banks collectively forgot their own caution- don't make margin bets you can't cover.....they did and they can't...and bets often at 25:1 making the margin calls horrendous on their thin capital base.

The trick is to prevent that contraction, which will sink just about any bank/financial entity on the planet over time, from murdering the underlying economy is to keep enough liquidity in the system to allow the underlying economy to not be collateral damage to the speculative disaster.

The other part is to prevent it emerging again. Some areas it did not on a large scale....Canada for instance well run and well controlled banks but we're still getting hurt by fall out from the foolishness.

Choking off the underlying economy - which I think is about 60% of the bubble economy ( think GDP in the mid 90s range when housing and wages were in synch ) would ensure a long lasting mess as occurred in Japan.
 
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The main reason why debasing a currency to offset price deflation is problematic is because it's immoral.
I was just thinking that the thread was missing some about-backwards crackpot analysis ;). Of course, the reverse is true--allowing deflation to propagate via lending curtailment and destruction of enterprise value and avoidable layoffs etc. is what is immoral. The reason why is that it is contrary to, and negligent of a central bank's mandate which is a publicly enshrined directive set up in the interests of the society.

money creation is a de facto transfer of wealth from the existing holders of the debased currency to the issuers of the new currency
As you know from previous discussions which you were compelled to agree with eventually, no transfer occurs (which would anyway be in favour of the owner of new currency not the issuer) unless unanticipated price level shifts occur because of it. And, of course, pretty much the entire basis of open market operations is to avoid unanticipated price level shifts, which is why "price stability" (universally understood as stable, low, positive inflation) is part of the operating mandate of central banks.

Moreover, with falling prices--anticipated or not--floating interest rates cannot adjust correctly to compensate borrowers who seek to substitute future spending with present spending, with the predictable result that both borrowing and present spending grind to a halt, that conventional economic policy levers are fully powerless to reverse.

Thus, standing aside and allowing deflation to propagate is a gross dereliction of duty on the part of a monetary authority and fits any definition of immoral.
 
But they aren't required to bid much. That's the scenario as the price goes down.
But the price is not "going down". The yield is. Excluding the early part of this year, government bond yields are at multi-decade lows which means that prices are at multi decade highs. And, by the way, what you bid in a liquid market is close to what the clearing price is, which is what others are trading these bonds for already in the huge secondary market on a minute-to-minute basis. You can't just drive the price of treasury bonds down because you're worried, even if you are a primary dealer. Everyone else must be spooked too.
Now, let's follow that through. The price going down doesn't just affect the price of those securities being auctioned at that moment. It lowers bond prices in general.
See above--you have price and yield confused. Try some elementary reading on bonds.

I don't know the numbers, but I do know that the model is wrong.
With respect--you don't know the model is wrong. You don't know the relationship between bond price and yield, nor how the substitution rate between risky credit exposures and default-risk-free bonds affects the appetite for public debt, nor (it seems) about the greater eventual fiscal costs of an unchecked slump in real final demand.

I think. Unfortunately, the housing market wasn't flashing red or yellow in 2006.
That depends on who you talk to. An asset class like real estate can be valued (as the NPV of future cash flows) just like a company, or the stock market can. Some of us identified significant overvaluations in office, industrial, retail and residential property at the time and some of us have been short of real estate via payer-swaps on the NCREIF (US) and IPD (UK) indexes for some considerable time. And bonds can be valued too. Actually they are rather expensive. That will most likely be corrected by higher real interest rates as/when economic growth improves--so not for a while yet.
 
I was just thinking that the thread was missing some about-backwards crackpot analysis ;).

And why is it that they all have that same picture of Ben Bernanke as their avatar?

It does still seem odd to me that deflation would be a problem that is considered difficult to solve. The very obvious and simple solution is to increase the money supply, right? Give it to the government so that the government can spend it on a stimulus without raising taxes.
 
The very obvious and simple solution is to increase the money supply, right? Give it to the government so that the government can spend it on a stimulus without raising taxes.

To a degree that is what is happening- the M3 is dropping like a stone and freezing out credit so the gov is trying to feed liquidity to the real economy without bailing out the bubble economy. Kinda tricky.

It puts the gov into deficit so taxing the top 2% as they were in the 90s under Clinton and who were also the architects and beneficiaries of the bubble nonsense is both just and appropriate.

Deflation is a boogie man scared up to protect vested interests. I live in a deflationary business and have for 25 years. It's tricky but if we ALL took the view that good things will get cheaper and our pay cheque will go farther next year it would be an excellent mind shift.
 
I don't know what M3 is. We're laypeople here. Some of us, anyway.

Also, you use words like "institutions chartered for fractional lending." Isn't that just an unnecessarily verbose synonym for "banks"?
 
M3 is the over all money supply that's why I used the long term for banks to show it's source....it's alos more than banks as well....see this article

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/19418.html

They pumped it out on speculative bets funding the housing bubble and it goes beyond that to speculative bets on overvalued equities....as the bubble collapses so does the money supply.
The gov is trying to prevent the worst impact of that deflating bubble to protect the "innnocent". ( yes Virginai there are a few responsible people left ;) )
Your point I believe was "why is the gov putting in more money".....that's why.
 
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