How do we know a pandemic's over?

dann said:
Not about COVID-19!
Bad news about the flu this year. It was pretty bad last year, and now this:

And that's not all:
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Yeah. Early indications are Flu is starting early here in San Diego. Cases took a jump to 108 (week ending 11/1/25) from 68 a week earlier and higher than a year ago which was a bad Flu year. This is still the early days. Covid-19 cases are somewhat higher but not increasing. Yet.
 
Has Walgreens joined the resistance?!
CoronaHeadsUp on X, Nov 11, 2025
US: Walgreens Launches Enhanced Respiratory Index to Track Flu and COVID-19
"The index will be updated weekly and will allow users to search by state to see where their geographic area ranks for both flu and COVID-19 activity."
Walgreens
https://corporate.walgreens.com/newsroom/walgreens-launches-enhanced-respiratory-index-to-track-flu-and-covid-19-hotspots/

Color-coded map of the United States highlighting respiratory illness activity levels with most states in green indicating high flu and COVID-19 presence especially in the Midwest South and East Coast. Oklahoma appears in yellow for moderate activity. Sidebar displays updated flu score of 4.10 note on COVID-19 top states with COVID time range of 40 hours Ohio at 4.15 and Wisconsin at 0.22. Includes search panel for state-specific rankings.
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RFK Jr. won't be pleased!
 
New Vince Gilligan series, Pluribus, and like Breaking Bad it is also set in Albuquerque. The protagonist is the female lead from Gilligan's Better Call Saul, Rhea Seehorn.

I haven't watched it, but based on the trailer alone ...
Pluribus — Official Trailer (Apple TV on YouTube, October 22, 2025 - 2:02 min.)
We hope you enjoy the trailer, Carol.
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... I can see why the new series reminds Julia Doubleday of the Covid-19 minimizer community's let-it-rip, back-to-normal and we-want-them-infected attitude: "Pluribus" captures the isolation of COVID-awareness in a COVID denialist world (The Gauntlet, Nov 10, 2025)

See also:
How Pluribus Turns Peace Into A Nightmare REVEALED | Ep 1 & 2 (The Reel Spot with Bobby Foster on YouTube, Nov 9, 2025 - 8:00 min.)
 
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The flu - England, northern hemisphere:
Dr Richard Hirschson on X, Nov 11, 2025
⚠️Mutated H3N2 influenza heads to northern hemisphere, prepare for worst seasonal flu epidemic in decades.7 mutations appeared in a strain of H3N2 seasonal flu in June 2025. These partially evade prior immunity, and are not fully covered by the current flu jab.
Linked to early and aggressive flu surges in the Northern Hemisphere, including Japan 🇯🇵 and China 🇨🇳.
NHS has issued a "flu jab SOS".
Hundreds of schools closed in China and Japan.

Line graph titled Flu starting early this winter showing percentage of positive flu tests in England as seven-day rolling average. X-axis labeled Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun. Y-axis from 0% to 30%. Multiple lines in blue and red for seasons 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 with peaks and surges especially in 2024-25 and 2025-26 lines rising early. Source noted as UK Health Security Agency with BBC logo.
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CoronaHeadsUp on X, Nov 12, 2025
That's a pretty close match for the flu outbreak for Japan

Image
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Dr Richard Hirschson on X, Nov 12, 2025
Yup, similar for many Asian countries, and WA in Australia which is very strange for the summer months.
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Flu - China:
Influenza A Surge Across China Leads to School Closures (NTD, Nov 5, 2025)
An outbreak of influenza A has swept across China, with H3N2 as the predominant circulating strain.
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Meanwhile in England:
Cat in the Hat, Nov 12, 2025
Bridget Philipson’s latest ludicrous scheme:
“ALL SCHOOLS IN ENGLAND TO BE GIVEN AI-GENERATED PUPIL ATTENDANCE TARGETS”
With flu season already hitting hard, issuing AI-driven mandates for attendance is absolutely bonkers.
This will not end well.
https://theguardian.com/education/2025/nov/12/all-schools-in-england-to-be-given-ai-generated-pupil-attendance-targets

Newspaper article page from The Guardian titled School attendance and absence with subtitle All schools in England to be given AI-generated pupil attendance targets Unions decry move saying it will put more pressure on headteachers without tackling absence from classrooms By education correspondent Every school in England is to be issued with an attendance target generated by artificial intelligence as part of the governments efforts to tackle absence in the countrys classrooms The targets which remain subject to how severely impacted schools are by pandemic-related absence will be issued to headteachers in the coming weeks The general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders Paul Whiteman said the government must work with the sector to get this wrong The general secretary of the National Education Union Pepe DiPao said the policy risks in schools up rather than in Whitehall ensuring that all their pupils attend regularly but many of the factors that control do not resolve on setting targets for individual staff who are already working incredibly hard to improve attendance rates An analysis published last month showed figures for overall attendance have not improved in the three schools have shown no improvement in three of the past four academic years and according to the Department for Education one in three schools have shown no improvement.
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Mirror Politics on X, Nov 12, 2025
Parents warned of major school changes with attendance targets

nMXTzMWk
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https://t.co/coVyzguN9a
 
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Weird San Diego stats. Flu doubled a month ago at just under 200 cases/week but has been pretty stable in the 4 weeks since with a slight uptick in the Dec 4th numbers. Covid has continued its decline from almost 1000 cases per week in Aug to 69 currently (111 last week) and is easily at a pandemic low. For the last 2 years July Aug has seen the highest Covid cases. Much higher than the traditional winter resp. season.

My colleague that got long covid has largely recovered. No more brain fog, tiring, home bound. Says she is totally normal outside of very occasional rapid heart rates.
 
Flu hasn't hit San Diego anywhere near as bad as much of the US. Flu increased back in the first 2 weeks of Dec then plateaued at just under 1000 cases/week. C19 has stayed pretty low after declining from a peak in late summer. Flu and C19 have resulted in 3 deaths (0.2%) each in the last 4 weeks in a population of 3.3M. All 6 deaths were in the over 65 group. Both of these are lower than I had expected.
 
dann said:
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report, June 29, 2025–Oct 25, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Oct 30, 2025)
Covid-19: Hospitalizations 1,730; Deaths 48
Influenza: Hospitalizations 88; Deaths 2
RSV: Hospitalizations 16; Deaths 0
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Total deaths season-to-date, Dec 27, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Jan 22, 2026)
Covid-19: 72
Influenza: 8
RSV: 3

See also: Study finds that despite broad COVID vaccine availability, COVID still deadlier than flu in hospitalized patients (CIDRAP, Jan 22, 2026)
 
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dann said:
Total deaths season-to-date, Dec 27, 2025 (SanDiegoCounty.gov, Jan 22, 2026)
Covid-19: 72
Influenza: 8
RSV: 3
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Over the last 4 weeks, there have been 5 Flu deaths, 3 Covid deaths, and 1 RSV death.

San Diego's respiratory disease season is 12 months long and goes from the start of July to the end of June . Flu is consistently seasonal around the winter months, Covid is pretty much all year long with one or two peaks per year. The peak in late summer is what caused most of the Covid deaths this season.
dann said:
See also: Study finds that despite broad COVID vaccine availability, COVID still deadlier than flu in hospitalized patients (CIDRAP, Jan 22, 2026)
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Considerably more here too. Covid's been about 3.5x higher death rate than Flu among hospitalized patients. Fortunately, we have seen fewer Covid hospitalized patients. Which brings up the bad news.

After a month of fairly stable Flu cases, they took a big jump, nearly doubling this week. Seems Flu had a slow start but now playing catchup.
 
Probably not - at least not nationally:
US flu activity declining but remains high (CIDRAP, Jan 16, 2026)
Seasonal flu activity in the United States remains high nationally but appears to be declining, according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
(...)
RSV elevated, COVID on the rise
COVID-19 levels are low but increasing nationally.
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dann said:
Probably not - at least not nationally:
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Yep. San Diego looks to have had a delayed Flu season. Early part was unusually wet and warm which seemed to have cut the Flu rise. That ended about 3 weeks ago so catchup. Cumulative Flu deaths are 10 since July with San Diego at about 1% of the US population. Way under what the rest of the US has experienced. Hopefully San Diego will see this decrease too in a few weeks.

Covid numbers are mixed. Cases down 116->92 but Hospitalizations up 17->21. At least still fairly low with no deaths in the last week or so.
 
After 3-week decline, flu cases rise across the US; RSV, COVID activity high in certain states (CIDRAP, Jan 30, 2026)
After three weeks of declining cases, influenza levels rose this week and remain elevated across the United States, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and COVID-19 activity is high in certain parts of the country, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its weekly respiratory virus update and FluView report today.
Overall levels of acute respiratory illness are low to moderate in most of the country, with only Alabama and Arkansas in the high category. COVID-19 cases are unchanged since last week for much of the country, with levels growing or likely growing in 11 states. Flu cases are trending upward in 13 states, as are RSV cases in 21 states.
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Colorado’s first child death from COVID-19 this season amid low vaccination rates and required shots overhaul (Colorado Public Radio, Jan 30, 2026)
For the first time this viral respiratory season, a child has died from COVID-19 in Colorado.
The state epidemiologist said the case was in a high school-aged child in the Denver area. The death in December was recorded on the state’s viral respiratory diseases dashboard as the first since Oct. 1, 2025. In the same timeframe, there have been three pediatric deaths from influenza.
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Local political climate tied to COVID vaccine uptake (CIDRAP, Feb 5, 2026)
The political climate where people live may matter as much as what they believe politically when it comes to COVID-19 vaccination, according to a study published this week in PLOS One.
Researchers from Colgate University and Syracuse University found that politically conservative US adults living in liberal areas were both less hesitant about COVID vaccines and more likely to receive booster doses than conservatives living in conservative regions of the country.
There is a well-documented relationship between conservatism and vaccine hesitancy in the United States, and these findings suggest that local political climates may moderate that relationship, the authors say.
(...)
Among conservatives, booster uptake varied widely: those living in liberal regions had a 60% likelihood of receiving a booster dose, compared with less than 35% among conservatives in conservative regions.
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I would like to see statistics of average lifespan of conservatives in liberal and conservative regions.
 
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