HAMAS wins big.

[Jon_in_london]

Want democracy in the Middle East.

Be carefull what you wish for.

You might just get it!

 

[zenith-nadir]

With the billions that Israel sucks out of the US every year to allow them to live in the desert they could buy an island from whoever owns it now.

This "aid to Israel" number has been calculated in a previous JREF thread which I am too tired to search for at this time. The reason it was done was to show that the complaint, or spin as I call it, regarding the "vast amount" of aid Israel gets each year really amounts to less than 1% of total US annual spending. Less than 1%! Which is a pretty good deal to help protect the only true ally in the region.

In contrast 99% of total US spending annually does not go to Israel. So the "billions Israel sucks out of the US" in reality amounts to less than 1% of annual US spending.

Anyhow...I am terribly dissapointed that Hamas won because Hamas follows the path of Hizbullah and the Taliban, meaning extremist Islamic ideology, rejectionism, and terrorism. Yet Hamas cannot now escape their duties to their constituents, we'll see how long they take to reverse 40 years of Fatah corruption and neglect. If they endeavor to make war they will be defeated. If they endeavor to make peace they defeat themselves by going against their own charter. Regardless of either Hamas will be forced to deal with Israel, especially on day-to-day issues in which Israel is involved, such as electricity, water, imports and exports.

Now that Hamas is the law in Gaza and the West Bank any terroristic action by a Hamas member would constitute an act of war on behalf of the Palestinians. They've snookered themselves.

 

[shuize]

As posted earlier, the silver lining here is the clarity it brings. The next time rockets get launched into Israel, it won't be the PA shrugging its shoulders and saying, "Hey, don't blame us." It will be a clear act of war and Israel can take the gloves off.

I'm not sure if Hamas realizes this yet. But something tells me the point is going to be driven home fairly soon.

* I now see Zenith edited his post to add that very point while I was typing.

 

[Beanbag]

I, for one, am watching this situation with a great deal of interest. My personal take (which seems to be shared by the "real" experts on the middle east, as far as I can tell from TV commentaries) is that even Hamas itself was astounded by the degree of their victory in the election. It could well be that Hamas was caught flat-footed with their success, and now there will probably be a mad scramble to ramp up their organization to effectively exploit their success and maintain their level of support in the population. After all, it's one thing to make promises; it's another thing to have to deliver on them.

For all their rather intemperate statements about the destruction of Israel, Hamas appears to have achieved a greater blend of the militant and academic factions than any other middle east group. For every gun-toting, trigger-happy militant, there appears to be a humanitarian interested in improving the lives of the people. They appear to have done more in civic aid and support than Fatah ever managed to do in the decades Arafat held power, and they have somehow managed to develop and maintain an image of scrupulous incorruptability, which in the Middle East is pretty hard to do.

Now, I want to see the quality of whatever statesmen they might have in their ranks. Hamas has started to move from a renegade organization to possibly become a legitimate political entity. How they play on the stage of international politics will depend on how well the statesmen can influence the gun-toters. I want to see what Hamas equivalents of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson will come forth from this situation. This is a remarkable opportunity we are witnessing. The transfer of power from Fatah to Hamas over the next few months should be a clear indication of how things should flow. So far, Fatah appears to have taken their losses remarkably well. I just worry that it might degenerate to each party sniping at each other to the detriment of the Palestinians. I would hope it dawns on them that if they don't all hang together, then they will surely hang separately (to paraphrase Benjamin Franklin).

Unfortunately, the religious aspects of the situation cause me to not hold out to much hope. Because there are fundamentalist factions who regard this as a holy war, there is no room for compromise on their part. You can't sell half your soul to the devil.

Beanbag

 

[zenith-nadir]

After all, it's one thing to make promises; it's another thing to have to deliver on them.

And therein lies the truth. Promises are one thing implementing your promises are totally another.

They appear to have done more in civic aid and support than Fatah ever managed to do in the decades Arafat held power, and they have somehow managed to develop and maintain an image of scrupulous incorruptability, which in the Middle East is pretty hard to do.

That is because Arafat and his cronies stole the international aid money that was meant for social programs. They also stole the taxes collected from Palestinians. (see: Arafat's Billions - CBS News - Nov. 9, 2003 )

I want to see what Hamas equivalents of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson will come forth from this situation.

A Look at Islamic Militant Group's Leaders - By The Associated Press

• Khaled Mashaal: Recognized as the leader of Hamas, based in Damascus. Mashaal makes the decisions about Hamas policy in consultation with West Bank and Gaza leaders as well as others in Damascus. Mashaal maintains an uncompromising line against Israel. He survived an abortive Israeli assassination attempt in Jordan in 1997.

• Mahmoud Zahar: The local political leader of Hamas and a founder of the group, he was elected to the new parliament. He was the personal physician for Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual force behind Hamas who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza in 2004. Zahar adopts a stern, harsh policy toward Israel, promoting the Hamas ideology that rejects the existence of a Jewish state in an Islamic Middle East.

• Ismail Haniyeh: The top candidate on the Hamas list and known as a relative moderate in the group, he was elected to the new parliament. Haniyeh is one of the most public of the Hamas figures, remaining available to comment on events even when most of the other leaders drop out of sight for fear of Israeli attacks.

• Sheik Hassan Yousef: The top Hamas figure in the West Bank, he was released from Israeli prison in 2004. Yousef is the most moderate of the Hamas leaders, refusing to rule out talks with Israel under strict conditions. He was elected to the new parliament.

As posted earlier, the silver lining here is the clarity it brings. The next time rockets get launched into Israel, it won't be the PA shrugging its shoulders and saying, "Hey, don't blame us." It will be a clear act of war and Israel can take the gloves off.

I'm not sure if Hamas realizes this yet. But something tells me the point is going to be driven home fairly soon.

We'll see what happens. Before Hamas only had to worry about killing Israelis and operating outside of even Palestinian law. Now, as the new Palestinian Authority, Hamas is responsible for not only it's own terrorists but the terrorists of Islamic Jihad and Fatah's-own Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. I am curious to see how they enforce the law.

 

[Beanbag]

Quote:
A Look at Islamic Militant Group's Leaders - By The Associated Press

• Khaled Mashaal: Recognized as the leader of Hamas, based in Damascus. Mashaal makes the decisions about Hamas policy in consultation with West Bank and Gaza leaders as well as others in Damascus. Mashaal maintains an uncompromising line against Israel. He survived an abortive Israeli assassination attempt in Jordan in 1997.

• Mahmoud Zahar: The local political leader of Hamas and a founder of the group, he was elected to the new parliament. He was the personal physician for Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual force behind Hamas who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza in 2004. Zahar adopts a stern, harsh policy toward Israel, promoting the Hamas ideology that rejects the existence of a Jewish state in an Islamic Middle East.

• Ismail Haniyeh: The top candidate on the Hamas list and known as a relative moderate in the group, he was elected to the new parliament. Haniyeh is one of the most public of the Hamas figures, remaining available to comment on events even when most of the other leaders drop out of sight for fear of Israeli attacks.

• Sheik Hassan Yousef: The top Hamas figure in the West Bank, he was released from Israeli prison in 2004. Yousef is the most moderate of the Hamas leaders, refusing to rule out talks with Israel under strict conditions. He was elected to the new parliament.

These are the old-line, established leaders -- I'm looking for the statesmen, those people who come from out of the relative unknown to do the necessary work to pull a nation into a cohesive being. Hamas has to change to meet this new situation if they expect to maintain their advantage. The hard-liners from last week don't strike me as capable of working well in an elected environment where you just can't assassinate those who don't agree 100% with you.

Beanbag

 

[richardm]

Now, as the new Palestinian Authority, Hamas is responsible for not only it's own terrorists but the terrorists of Islamic Jihad and Fatah's-own Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. I am curious to see how they enforce the law.

According to Jeremy Bowen (a pretty experienced BBC Middle East correspondent) Hamas are rather heavily outgunned by Fateh's guys. He's somewhat concerned that if they decide not to go quietly then there is a real risk that things could turn very nasty. If they did it would be dreadfully ironic that Fateh waited until Hamas were legitimised by a democratic process before acting against them.

 

[zenith-nadir]

These are the old-line, established leaders -- I'm looking for the statesmen, those people who come from out of the relative unknown to do the necessary work to pull a nation into a cohesive being. Beanbag

One must remember that we are talking about an islamic fundamentalist terror organization made up of hard-core Islamic fundamentalists. Hamas is an offshoot of the banned-but-tolerated Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt - another hard-core fundamentalist group. I don't think you will find too many diplomatic statesmen in this group of hard-core fundamentalists who even have trouble accepting that their own women should have equal rights to men.

But who knows, someone could pop out of the woodwork and surprise me.

 

[Beanbag]

Rreports are coming in on BBC TV that Fatah and Hamas have started shooting at each other. Forget it. Whatever hope I had just started circling the drain.

Beanbag

 

[richardm]

Rreports are coming in on BBC TV that Fatah and Hamas have started shooting at each other. Forget it. Whatever hope I had just started circling the drain.

Beanbag

[vain hope]
Perhaps it's just an isolated incident
[/vain hope]

 

[zenith-nadir]

[vain hope]
Perhaps it's just an isolated incident
[/vain hope]

Not really.

A Palestinian gunman gestures that he doesn't want to be photographed following clashes between Fatah and Hamas supporters at the Palestinian Legislative Council in the West Bank town of Ramallah, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2006. Hamas supporters briefly raised their flag over the Palestinian parliament and rushed into the building, amid clashes with Fatah loyalists. (AP Photo/Kevin Frayer)

 

[Manny]

Hey, does anybody know if Hitler won? I know the Martyr Mom won.

 

[Mephisto]

I hope he's right, but either way it illustrates that a huge portion of the problem is that the Palestinians don't have a reasonable option to vote for.

Well, they've apparently embraced Western-style democracy fairly well, considering that most Americans didn't have a reasonable option to vote for either.

Speaking of which, Democracy must now be seen as a double-edged sword - it has been the Bush administration's claim that they want to foster the growth of Democracy in the middle-east, yet when a political party they don't approve of has been democratically elected into power they balk at the idea that it's democracy that put them into place.

 

[Ed]

It seems that the Isreali's are going to hold back taxes they collected on behalf of the palistinians. Insolvency in a month or so. The ex head of the World bank said that loans will be a hard time a comin', pointing out the distaste associated with supporting a terrorist regime. A bit of an early warning, I think. I read that the head of Hamas is going back to Palistine from Egypt and that a trial balloon (deniable, naturally) has been floated about the Gernams developing Nukes in the face of loony Islamists.

I gathered these tidbits from a quick scan of the London Times and Telegraph.

Iran Says Russia's Nuclear Plan Is 'Not Sufficient'

In the NYT as we speak.

Troubling is a bit of an understatement.

Why anyone would show any gratification at Bush's words about wanting democracy strikes me as beyond fatuous.

 

[Giz]

With the billions that Israel sucks out of the US every year to allow them to live in the desert they could buy an island from whoever owns it now.

An Island big enough for 4 million people, enough capital to rebuild the infrastructure, nice enough to get them to forget about the legendary homeland? With no inhabitants? For a few billion dollars? Forget the Jews and this middle east peace cr*p - I want some of this real estate!

It's been used as a basis for the several wars you have started, other sovereign nations you have violated while you cry about your own sovereignty.

Would that be the '48, the '67, and '73 wars you are talking about? I don't know that the Israeli's started them... they returned fire I suppose... is that not allowed?

 

[Elind]

In contrast 99% of total US spending annually does not go to Israel. So the "billions Israel sucks out of the US" in reality amounts to less than 1% of annual US spending.

US spending on what? I don't think you mean what it says, because supporter or not, I'm not supporting spending $1 out of every $100 tax dollars on Israel.

I think every Israeli would have retired to that Island somewhere by now if that were the case.

 

[kimiko]

This "aid to Israel" number has been calculated in a previous JREF thread which I am too tired to search for at this time. The reason it was done was to show that the complaint, or spin as I call it, regarding the "vast amount" of aid Israel gets each year really amounts to less than 1% of total US annual spending. Less than 1%!

It's poor form to obscure the amount by countering the claim of "billions" with a percentage. It reduces "billions" to a small number to make it seem smaller than it may or may not be. Either it's billions or it isn't, and if it is, there is undoubtedly an actual dollar figure.

In contrast 99% of total US spending annually does not go to Israel. So the "billions Israel sucks out of the US" in reality amounts to less than 1% of annual US spending.

Which is as it should be, because Israel is not a part of the US. We have a whole nation of schools, roads, bureaucrats, a copious military, etc. that need funding.

 

[geni]

US spending on what? I don't think you mean what it says, because supporter or not, I'm not supporting spending $1 out of every $100 tax dollars on Israel.

I think every Israeli would have retired to that Island somewhere by now if that were the case.

Not really. A lot of the money is in the form of militery aid.

 

[seayakin]

Why not look at what realistic options Israel has.

-Partition (continue with the wall)
-Re-occupation of th Palestinian territories

I'm assuming negotiation is not a real option given Hamas' stated mission to destroy Israel.

The real question for me is what happens if Netanyahu becomes the new prime minister. Will he reoccupy and restart abandoned settlements or continue building the wall.

Personally, I think Israels best option is to continue with the wall and take a wait and see with the Palestinians and hope one day they can have a negotiated peace.

This is not to say the wall is fair or just but it boils down to a matter of pragmatism.

 

[Elind]

Not really. A lot of the money is in the form of militery aid.

I'm just asking for a clarification. I don't believe 1% of the US Federal budget goes to Israel, in any form, direct or otherwise.

Perhaps of all foreign aid?