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H1N1 second round

FWIW,
My cousin caught H1N1 and came extremely close to death. He was hospitalized for so long that he couldn't walk and is now using a walker until his muscles regain strength. But hey, at least he didn't get a vaccine! He is ~46 years old.
 
casebro said:
Ben, it looks like those charts were cherry picked to prove your point that children were more susceptible. No argument there.
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So you can't read or understand the second chart either.
But that doesn't disprove what I said about it being just another flu strain as far as impact on the world goes.
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Nice moving goalpost.
casebro said:
Turns out to be just another flu bug.
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Oh yeah. Still waiting.
casebro said:
Yeah , well, what I remember was the predictions that it was going to be the scourge of all man kind, with higher death rates than the 1918 epidemic.
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paximperium said:
Where did you supposedly read this? The CDC announcements? WHO? Where exactly?
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BenBurch said:
From http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ ;
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I'm sure there's something about these graphs that I don't understand. What's the deal with this one, for instance? The H1N1 pandemic doesn't seem to register on it.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/images/picurve11.gif

Edited to add: About the second graph you posted. It's fair to point out that it's only hospitalization and not death. There was alot of concern at the time, and anyone who was diagnosed with this particular variant, immediately got quarantined in a hospital. This was standard procedure, and no doubt, this will boost the numbers of the H1N1 hospitalizations compared to the normal flu hospitalizations.
 
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I think everyone was pleasantly surprised to discover that H1N1 did not affect the elderly as much as did the normal seasonal flu. Given that the elderly are generally the most susceptable to the flu, that is a major relief. No one could foresee it, and we can count ourselves lucky. Nonetheless, it is a good thing that the H1N1 flu didn't kill as many elderly as initially predicted.

That being said, it DID affect others to a much greater extent than the normal flu, pretty much as expected. And as the parent of a 16 mo old toddler, and the husband of an expectant mother, I am still very grateful that we got our H1N1 shots.

100s of otherwise pregnant women died from H1N1. You can discount that, but I don't. It is a rate of something like 1/10 000 pregnant women who DIED.

100s of women died (not to mention children and others). Meanwhile, anti-vax loons were worried about the possibility of GBS, which was a possible complication of the swine flu more than 25 years ago and affected...35 people.
 
paximperium said:
It does. See the 2009 peak. The influenza season peaked significantly earlier and lasted longer than the earlier seasons.
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Ah, yes, I see what you mean. There's definitely an early peak and the flu season lasts longer.

I'm curious what the 2008 thing was. It seems at least as severe as the H1N1 pandemic.
 
plindboe said:
Ah, yes, I see what you mean. There's definitely an early peak and the flu season lasts longer.

I'm curious what the 2008 thing was. It seems at least as severe as the H1N1 pandemic.
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I believe they got the influenza strain wrong and there was a major delay and shortage that year so the Influenza vaccine was not as protective.
 
paximperium said:
I believe they got the influenza strain wrong and there was a major delay and shortage that year so the Influenza vaccine was not as protective.
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Correct you are.

As for allegations that I am cherry-picking (from another author); No, I am giving you what was on the CDC flu report for this week - if you think you have a better source, post it, or concede the point.
 
casebro said:
Ben, it looks like those charts were cherry picked to prove your point that children were more susceptible. No argument there.

But that doesn't disprove what I said about it being just another flu strain as far as impact on the world goes.
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Round and round the mulberry bush,
Casebro runs from the facts.
Doesn't matter how long it takes
where he started from he ends up there back.
 
paximperium said:
I believe they got the influenza strain wrong and there was a major delay and shortage that year so the Influenza vaccine was not as protective.
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Lest this contributes to the common myth vaccine composition is a "guess" here's a bit more on the matter.

The WHO and other national public heath agencies monitor the genetic changes of circulating influenza strains continually by sampling from what are known as sentinel sites (IE sampling patients systematically at specified clinics participating in the programs). Every 6 months the recommendation for what to include in that year's vaccine is updated based on the collected data, in each respective summer for each hemisphere.

Only rarely does significant genetic drift occur between the time the vaccine components are recommended and the winter flu season when the vaccine is distributed. The drift was detected in 2008 and the decision was, change the vaccine and have less vaccine in addition to a late delivery, or go ahead with one mismatched strain out of the three strains which are included in each year's vaccine.

The decision was to go with the mismatch. It turned out to provide some protection against the mismatched strain for at least half the people who got the vaccine, so it was still a very useful vaccine.

And while there was an early study that suggested people who got seasonal flu vaccine might be more likely to get H1N1, those people also had milder cases. Another study published recently found the seasonal vaccine had a small impact decreasing the numbers of H1N1 cases in nurses who got seasonal vaccine but not H1N1 vaccine.

The bottom line, flu vaccine is a good vaccine and provides benefits even when it is not a perfect vaccine. And don't forget the news media is trying to make scandals out of the data for their own product promotion.
 
Intesting post, Skeptic Ginger. I rarely debate this subject, so I certainly have plenty to learn.
 
pgwenthold said:
It is a rate of something like 1/10 000 pregnant women who DIED.
.
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Is a 1/10,000 death rate supposed to make me quake in my boots?

Hmm, I wonder if I can find "total deaths per year, 2008 vs 2009", just as a way to judge how big of an affect H1N1 had on us overall?

But yano, all this discussion has to do with judgment and opinion. All the hype didn't make me lose any sleep. What actual affect did it have on you personally? Wash your hands til they were raw? Cancel travel plans? Any life-or-death changes to your routine, or really just something to talk about?
 
casebro said:
Is a 1/10,000 death rate supposed to make me quake in my boots?

Hmm, I wonder if I can find "total deaths per year, 2008 vs 2009", just as a way to judge how big of an affect H1N1 had on us overall?

But yano, all this discussion has to do with judgment and opinion. All the hype didn't make me lose any sleep. What actual affect did it have on you personally? Wash your hands til they were raw? Cancel travel plans? Any life-or-death changes to your routine, or really just something to talk about?
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Round and round the mulberry bush,
Casebro runs from the facts.
Doesn't matter how long it takes
where he started from he ends up there back.

The only people to my knowledge suggesting anyone "quake in their boots" were people who didn't understand the implications of a pandemic of this specific nature. After years of planning for another 1918-like pandemic, essentially planning for a worse case scenario, more than a few people didn't get it when there was a less than worse case scenario pandemic that still warranted public health and health care provider actions.

In addition, in the early phases of a flu pandemic of any severity, predictions made naturally need frequent updating. It is wise to proceed with caution until more details emerge. Unlike the US and many developed countries, not all countries have sufficient infectious disease monitoring systems in place. When new flu epidemics begin in parts of the world lacking close monitoring capabilities, early information can be scarce about what is really going on. It would seem you had unrealistic high expectation that the data about a new pandemic would be instantly available. That was not the case here. Don't mistake cautions as conclusions.

You are attacking the ignorant messages about 2009 H1N1 influenza as if those messages had come from informed public health and other medical experts. You need to re-evaluate your sources of medical news and information rather than post comments based on believing the uninformed sources you are complaining about as if that information came from reliable sources.

In other words, any truth in what you post only applies to the news media and uninformed individual responses. It does not apply to the public health and medical communities which responded to this pandemic in a well balanced measured way. Distribution of vaccine is the only area of our response I have any issues with and hopefully this incident will lead to improvements in vaccine distribution during a crisis.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Round and round the mulberry bush,
Casebro runs from the facts.
Doesn't matter how long it takes
where he started from he ends up there back.
.
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Umm, which facts did I dispute? That H1N1 killed people? I never said it didn't.

Just like you are not disputing that people were in an uproar of the impending epidemic.

So go give your self an atta-boy for saving gazillions of lives by being part of the team that was prepared for the worst. Feel better now?
 
casebro said:
Yeah , well, what I remember was the predictions that it was going to be the scourge of all man kind, with higher death rates than the 1918 epidemic.

Turns out to be just another flu bug.
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paximperium said:
Where did you supposedly read this? The CDC announcements? WHO? Where exactly?
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Why still no answer casebro?
Please don't blame others if YOU bought into the hype and mistook it for reality. I suggest you let people in the know deal with infectious disease and the importing things since you're obviously not able to deal with evidence or even come close to understanding the concept of public health.

casebro said:
Is a 1/10,000 death rate supposed to make me quake in my boots?
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I see a distinct pattern here.
Hmm, I wonder if I can find "total deaths per year, 2008 vs 2009", just as a way to judge how big of an affect H1N1 had on us overall?
Click to expand...
So you don't know how to read the graphs that has been posted so far? At least attempt to look like you're making an effort.
But yano, all this discussion has to do with judgment and opinion. All the hype didn't make me lose any sleep.
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Yes. I most definitely see a pattern here.
What actual affect did it have on you personally? Wash your hands til they were raw? Cancel travel plans? Any life-or-death changes to your routine, or really just something to talk about?
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1)I intubated about 5 H1N1 confirmed cases; admitted about 20 confirmed cases. All of whom were below the age of 50.
2)A friend of mine's 2 year old died from it.
3)A nurse's son got it and was in the PICU for about 2 weeks.
4)I coded a 3year old for about an hour turning his face a nice puffy mess from all the fluids we were giving before letting the stubborn bugger die. Autopsy showed H1N1.
But what do these anecdotes matter. They're only numbers in a graph that you're too lazy to bother to even read.

Why? Did the pandemic make you miss morning bagel hour or force you to cover you mouth when you sneeze? I'm sorry about the inconvenience. But I can relate...I had to wear a face mask everytime I went in to see a patient. Now that was so damn inconvenient.
 
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