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Global Warming Consensus?

Joined
Mar 24, 2007
Messages
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When having discussions of GW with my friends and colleagues, the idea of a scientific "consensus" behind it frequently comes up. And indeed, it's mentioned pretty frequently in the media.

So what does this consensus consist of? About the most conservative definition I can think of is this: "Over the past century or so, there has been a warming trend. A significant portion of the temperature increase can be attributed to the greenhouse effects of the CO2 gas emitted by human activity."

Is this it, or is there more? It's not a particularly useful definition without temperature ranges and such. Also, is there any consensus about how AGW should be addressed? The "consensus" seems to be used to support carbon reduction schemes, but it's unclear how one follows from the other without any economic arguments.

Thanks for any input.

- Dr. Trintignant
 
As far as I know, the consensus of 1000's of scientists was that there is a 90% chance that humans played a role in global warming.

There could be more or less to this statement however.
 
When having discussions of GW with my friends and colleagues, the idea of a scientific "consensus" behind it frequently comes up. And indeed, it's mentioned pretty frequently in the media.

So what does this consensus consist of? About the most conservative definition I can think of is this: "Over the past century or so, there has been a warming trend. A significant portion of the temperature increase can be attributed to the greenhouse effects of the CO2 gas emitted by human activity."

Is this it, or is there more? It's not a particularly useful definition without temperature ranges and such. Also, is there any consensus about how AGW should be addressed? The "consensus" seems to be used to support carbon reduction schemes, but it's unclear how one follows from the other without any economic arguments.

Thanks for any input.

- Dr. Trintignant

From a questionable scientific argument - the "A" part - questionable in extent and effect, whether tiny or potentially catastrophic, one is led to politcal solutions, effective, ineffective, or counterproductive. There are economic arguments. Those seem to be the part of this that interest me, more than the science. Further, the economic arguments are often really, really lame, while the scientific arguments are not.

Science.
Refute the statement "We must take action NOW or hundreds of millions might die?" You cannot, the statement has a "might" hidden within it. But if a airline captain was told there "might" be bad weather ahead, he is gonna take a 10 degree right or left deviation, every time. Certainty there is not.

Politics.
The domain of everyone's favorite sociopath. Take your pick. They see big money in the global warming pie, the "solutions" are just to funnel money to their buddies. The real question is whose buddies have solutions.

Economics.
Double the number of nuclear plants, power is cheaper, CO2 goes down by the amounts estimated to be "in the good range" by the IPCC. All economic arguments based on limiting consumption, taxing, carbon credits, carbon offsets, etc., in my limited study of them appear to do a great job of producing revenue for the taxing agencies. But if you simply do a numerical approach to "do they solve the problem" they appear totally irrelevant. One example, replacing the entire world fleet of automobiles with Prius hybrids would reduce total GHG emissions from man made sources by less than 2% - and that does not count the emissions from producing the cars.

i could ramble on, but that's the short story from my view.
 
Anybody got a link to the study that shows that there is a consensus?

No?

Thanks.
 
And the IPCC is a political organization that i can't trust what so ever since they mislead people....

ETA: i know it is filled with scientists, but reports have been manipulated to better serve a political purpose(ie, the heading of a report says something else than the report does, most people won't bother to read it, nor will the media, so the wrong message is being put out).
 
Anybody got a link to the study that shows that there is a consensus?

No?

Thanks.

I'll have to dig a bit to find the link, but I am certain that there is a consensus on this matter.

Oh, okay. Here it is. I had it filed under "con" - short story follows ...

Why do 99.999999999999999999999% of the Earth's scientists believe in global warming?
I dispute the premise. There are entire fields of scientists who have never gone on record supporting global warming.
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6324425.stm

The IPCC is a broad panel of people who coallate existing data.

Thanks for the link--I missed that. However, how much of that could be said to be agreed on by, say, 90% of climatologists? The paper represents a collation of existing data but it's unclear that it represents a consensus.

Incidentally, I find this quote extremely offensive:
Britain's Environment Secretary David Miliband said:
The debate over the science of climate change is well and truly over.

The window of opportunity to avoid dangerous climate change is closing more quickly than previously thought.

People on all sides of the debate should be disgusted by statements like this. Science is never over. Further, the report is a presentation of data, and does not use words like "danger". Whether the expected climate change is dangerous and how it should be addressed, if at all, is a separate topic. An Environment Secretary should know better.

- Dr. Trintignant
 
You find out of their is a consensus or not by asking the folks who are hypothesized to be consensing.

It is not necessary to ask all scientists as long as certain steps are taken, such as ensuring that your sample of the population in question is likely to be representative of the whole population.

Has this been done?

No?
 
You find out of their is a consensus or not by asking the folks who are hypothesized to be consensing.

It is not necessary to ask all scientists as long as certain steps are taken, such as ensuring that your sample of the population in question is likely to be representative of the whole population.

Has this been done?

No?

Actually this is an interesting question. Like many other questions asked on this forum, there are serious efforts to spin into another direction where sacrcasm and derision rule. I fall prey to that sometimes.

Yes, here is a survey. Quoting from it -
A substantial number of environmental scientists and practitioners disagree with the assertion that human activity is causing or imminently will cause substantial global warming, a November 2006 survey found.
Conducted by the nonpartisan National Registry of Environmental Professionals (NREP), the survey asked 793 environmental scientists and environmental practitioners about human effects on climate variance.
The survey results contradict assertions by environmental activist groups that "the debate is over" and that all or virtually all scientists agree humans are causing a dramatic and harmful change in the Earth's climate.
 
You find out of their is a consensus or not by asking the folks who are hypothesized to be consensing.

It is not necessary to ask all scientists as long as certain steps are taken, such as ensuring that your sample of the population in question is likely to be representative of the whole population.

Has this been done?

No?

Of course, the real threat is the amateurs....and here is a guy who is asking for help in checking the quality of the work of all of these "professional climate scientists doing science in consensus mode". I am sure that anyone on either side of this issue would be glad to help establish the actual facts on the matter.

Oh no? You already know all the facts? Sorry I bothered you.

It's called "Helping along global warming"
While its nice to be recognized, I really need to finish this project. I have 48 weather stations surveyed out of 1221, if you'd like to help please visit www.surfacestations.org and sign up. It's easy, anyone can do it. All you need is a camera, GPS unit, tape measure and a notebook.
I provide a complete step by step guide which you can download from the website.
 
And the IPCC is a political organization that i can't trust what so ever since they mislead people....

ETA: i know it is filled with scientists, but reports have been manipulated to better serve a political purpose(ie, the heading of a report says something else than the report does, most people won't bother to read it, nor will the media, so the wrong message is being put out).

It is an organisation that has been politicised. The reports based on the science are manipulated by countries such as the US and China who don't want to hear the bad news.
 
You find out of their is a consensus or not by asking the folks who are hypothesized to be consensing.

It is not necessary to ask all scientists as long as certain steps are taken, such as ensuring that your sample of the population in question is likely to be representative of the whole population.

Has this been done?

No?

I'm leaving out published books, obvious nutcase surveys, a couple that were ridiculously improper (but I left in "A" as one example). I have not tried to find surveys that support one side or the other, just "the surveys".

A. This is an incredibly stupid survey which shows how really stupid some really smart people can be.

B. The Myth of Scientific Consensus on Global Warming

C. Oriented toward getting a variety of opinions and levels of knowledge
Human dimensions of climate change: Results of a survey of scientists and engineers

D. In a new book he co-authored with Dennis Avery entitled "Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years," Singer writes, "It is sheer fantasy to suggest that a huge number of scientists with expertise in global climate change endorse an alarming interpretation of the recent climate data." Singer points out that hundreds of climate scientists have argued against what passes for a consensus view on the subject.

E. Gore was wrong in 1992 when he wrote that 98 percent of scientists agreed with him on global warming. A 1992 survey found that a mere 17 percent of members of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society believed in greenhouse-gas climate change.

F. Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change, 1995-1998.

G. And here is a another survey. Quoting from it -
A substantial number of environmental scientists and practitioners disagree with the assertion that human activity is causing or imminently will cause substantial global warming, a November 2006 survey found.
Conducted by the nonpartisan National Registry of Environmental Professionals (NREP), the survey asked 793 environmental scientists and environmental practitioners about human effects on climate variance.
The survey results contradict assertions by environmental activist groups that "the debate is over" and that all or virtually all scientists agree humans are causing a dramatic and harmful change in the Earth's climate.
 
Have you ever heard of the AAAS? American Association for the Advancement of Science? If you haven't, then you're not doing science. They are the publishers of one of the premier peer-reviewed scientific journals in the world: Science. They have made the following article publicly available to address precisely this point: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

A few relevant quotes:
"Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate science is highly uncertain. Some have used this as an argument against adopting strong measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, while discussing a major U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report on the risks of climate change, then-EPA administrator Christine Whitman argued, "As [the report] went through review, there was less consensus on the science and conclusions on climate change" (1). Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2). Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case." Emphasis mine.

"The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9).

The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position." Emphasis again mine.

This is a stunning level of agreement. Whenever there is an "accepted wisdom," there are almost always iconoclasts publishing papers looking for flaws in the theories that underlie it. People get famous for discovering such flaws. It is therefore a tautology that there are always people looking. You can find articles questioning relativity being published to this day in reputable and even prestigious journals of physics. The fact that there aren't any doesn't indicate a conspiracy; it indicates that no one has been able to find any credible, supportable evidence to question this consensus.

Of the major scientific organizations in the United States, only one disagrees with AGW, predictably enough the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Amusingly, as I write, their site is down.

I'd say this thread needs to be moved to Conspiracy Theories. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with the actual demonstrable consensus represented by the major scientific associations, the National Academies or their equivalents among the G8, or any other major scientific organization.

I'll be happy to demolish your links in detail, if you'd like- but I'd say that anyone is capable of noting that your link to the "talking points memo" will note after following all the links that it has only two sources, both of which either cite documents on the same page or documents that return to the source. In other words, these folks just say whatever they want, and then someone else uses it as a "source" for something, and then the original site uses that as a source for some further piece of BS they want to claim is from an "unbiased source." Looks great until you actually dig into the details. There is a term for this: obfuscation. The more common term is "lying." If you really want me to detail all this incestuous crap, I'll be more than happy, but I doubt you will be when I'm done.
 
I'd say this thread needs to be moved to Conspiracy Theories. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with the actual demonstrable consensus represented by the major scientific associations, the National Academies or their equivalents among the G8, or any other major scientific organization.

Oh I see.. it is a consensus of organizations rather than scientists

Why dont the scientists have a consensus?
 
I'd say this thread needs to be moved to Conspiracy Theories.

Personally, I'd prefer that we got back to my original question. What, precisely, is the consensus that is said to have been achieved? Is it this statement (which appeared in your link)?:

Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations

Or is the IPCC report as a whole taken to be the consensus? It seems somewhat unlikely that their reports are agreed upon as a whole in such a universal way, but perhaps it's true. That's what I"m legitimately trying to find out.

- Dr. Trintignant
 
Have you ever heard of the AAAS? American Association for the Advancement of Science? If you haven't, then you're not doing science. They are the publishers of one of the premier peer-reviewed scientific journals in the world: Science. They have made the following article publicly available to address precisely this point: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686

I'll be happy to demolish your links in detail, if you'd like- but I'd say that anyone is capable of noting that your link to the "talking points memo" will note after following all the links that it has only two sources, both of which either cite documents on the same page or documents that return to the source. In other words, these folks just say whatever they want, and then someone else uses it as a "source" for something, and then the original site uses that as a source for some further piece of BS they want to claim is from an "unbiased source." Looks great until you actually dig into the details. There is a term for this: obfuscation. The more common term is "lying." If you really want me to detail all this incestuous crap, I'll be more than happy, but I doubt you will be when I'm done.

Yes. I wasn't looking for organizations that promulgated a statement.

Just trying to see what might have been done on surveys to scientists and engineers. Lots of surveys on the general population, not so many on smart people. So the result was, pretty much what came up in the first five or six pages of google. Dups, yes, because there were various spins on the data. What interested me was what splits and shades in opinion might exist - then to find them, yes you have to wade through all the bias and agenda driven operations.

There are probably more and better surveys, but that's what I came up with in limited time. And I'm not saying they are good :rolleyes: only that the really bad ones have already been tossed.
 

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