Ed FiveThirtyEight GE Forecast

dudalb said:
A saying that is not exact about the numbers but overall correct is that any GOP Candidate for President will get 40% of the vote, any Democrat 40% of the vote, with 20% that could go either way. It is the undecided that decides elections, and who the campaign is aimed at. IMHO Trump lost a lot of ground this week with the 20%.
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As sad as I was to see what appeared to be a Clinton landslide slipping to a tight race, this is very true. We have seen the majority of Republicans fall into line, even if reluctantly, since the convention. The number of die hard Republicans giving up on the Presidency or even leaving the party over Trump has been significant, but not enough for the party to collapse. Another fact is there truly is a significant voter bloc of undecideds who don't start paying attention until close to the election. This group has actually shrunk in the recent decades. This month I suspect there will be a shift back towards to Clinton. Especially if Trump cancels a debate.

While Clinton is not the strongest or most charismatic of candidates, my bias is that by comparison to Trump she will still manage a solid 4 point lead for a win. My prediction is a 47/43 split with a sub 55% turnout.
 
Current aggregator projections 01 Oct 16

All are +Clinton. Probably of Hillary winning:

NY Times 76%
538 - 67%
Daily Kos - 70%
PredictWise - 79%
Princeton Election Consortium -85%
 
What do those numbers mean?

Is Clinton going to be President 3/4 of the time and Trump the other 1/4?
 
marplots said:
What do those numbers mean?

Is Clinton going to be President 3/4 of the time and Trump the other 1/4?
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lets say that it's 75% to 25%

This means that if you ran the election with the results landing in the appropriate standard deviation based on the current polls, and did this 1,000 times, then Clinton would win 750 times and Trump would win 250 times.
 
PhantomWolf said:
lets say that it's 75% to 25%

This means that if you ran the election with the results landing in the appropriate standard deviation based on the current polls, and did this 1,000 times, then Clinton would win 750 times and Trump would win 250 times.
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So it's about multiple universes or something? Because here, in my universe, we are only going to run the election once (the recount 3 times).

Setting that aside, I think we should all take a pledge. A pledge to support whichever candidate (in this universe) wins, no matter who it is.
 
marplots said:
So it's about multiple universes or something? Because here, in my universe, we are only going to run the election once (the recount 3 times).

Setting that aside, I think we should all take a pledge. A pledge to support whichever candidate (in this universe) wins, no matter who it is.
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I feel no obligation what so ever to make such a pledge

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Amazer said:
I feel no obligation what so ever to make such a pledge

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Please reconsider in the hopes for a United America (post election), where we can set our differences aside and rally around our God-given elitist exceptionalism.
 
marplots said:
So it's about multiple universes or something? Because here, in my universe, we are only going to run the election once (the recount 3 times).
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The numbers reflect the inherent uncertanties in polling. If you consider all statistically likely combinations of errors that could have occurred, most such combinations favour Clinton.
 
marplots said:
So it's about multiple universes or something? Because here, in my universe, we are only going to run the election once (the recount 3 times).

Setting that aside, I think we should all take a pledge. A pledge to support whichever candidate (in this universe) wins, no matter who it is.
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No, just probability.
 
Garrison said:
And a moderator whose reckoned to be tougher than the guy in the first debate. Real chance of trump going off on a rant while on stage?
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It is a town hall type event so the two candidates will be on the floor with attendees sitting around him at the same level. Is this better or worse for Trump given his style of talking/debating?
 
SezMe said:
It is a town hall type event so the two candidates will be on the floor with attendees sitting around him at the same level. Is this better or worse for Trump given his style of talking/debating?
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He probably thinks it is better for him, but he thinks he's the best at everything. Upon reflection he said he wasn't going to prep much for the 2nd because that faulty (fawlty) mic was a fifty per cent distraction.... the implication being that if he is able to use ALL of his mighty intellect, she better watch out, she'd better! Poor thing. He got beaten up by a little girly person.

He thought he was the king of debating because he was allowed to beat up the GOP panty-waists and given center stage, more time and unlimited interruptions. That didn't translate so well to an actual moderated debate. He did very well with the Town Hall format - in his mind. Of course, he had Call Sean Hannity lobbing great big hanging curve balls and a Fox-friendly and thus Trump-friendly audience.

The thing is,... he's delusional. Do you think he was being classy when he refused to bring up Bill, while bringing up Bill (with Chelsea right there). He does. He thought everyone bought it. Based on what he got away with in the GOP debates he left thinking he'd done just fine. He wasn't being politic when he said the moderation was fair, he was being insane. He actually believed he did well. Only when Ivanka and the two drooling idiots he calls sons came over and started patting him on the back and saying "S'okay Big D, you'll do better next time" did he begin to realize.

So he thinks he did great in the Town Hall format and can just wing it. Plan for a lot of fun.
 
Foolmewunz said:
All are +Clinton. Probably of Hillary winning:

NY Times 76%
538 - 67%
Daily Kos - 70%
PredictWise - 79%
Princeton Election Consortium -85%
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Update noon 03 October.

NY Times 77%
538 - 68%
Daily Kos - 72%
PredictWise - 80%
Princeton Election Consortium - 86%

PredictWise, by the way, is following the betting sites. (Many people say they are a better mark than the polls.)
 
Foolmewunz said:
Update noon 03 October.

NY Times 77%
538 - 68%
Daily Kos - 72%
PredictWise - 80%
Princeton Election Consortium - 86%

PredictWise, by the way, is following the betting sites. (Many people say they are a better mark than the polls.)
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Not to say that it isn't true, or can't be true more often than not, but it bears pointing out that that theory didn't work out so well with regard to the Brexit vote.
 
quadraginta said:
Not to say that it isn't true, or can't be true more often than not, but it bears pointing out that that theory didn't work out so well with regard to the Brexit vote.
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Well, always seemed to me that being betting odds, they should simply be reflecting which side people were putting their money on like any sporting bet. But many posters here have offered that bettors are inherently conservative so will take the smart bet rather than their emotional choice. Seems logical... there's a whole lot more data available in the fifty electoral vote states than there is data on Notre Dame's defense or whether Montezuma's Revenge likes a sloppy track in the feature at Woodbine.
 
Another note on the LATimes... it's inching back, a few tenths at a time, to the "norm". The number is now 3.9, down a little more than half a point from yesterday, which in turn was down from the day before.

I mentioned in another thread that it reacts very slowly for some reason. Oh, and the non-responding members of the pool are now even higher. More than 700 of the 3000 didn't give an opinion on the 3rd. That's more than 25% and with no similar models from the past, I don't know what to make of it.
 
538: 73%
NYT: 79%
Daily Kos: 72%
HuffPo: 83%
Predict Wise: 81%
Princeton Election: 90%
 
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