The oldest fossil evidence we have for life on Earth (chemical trace fossils from Australia) are from about 3.6 billion years ago. That's roughly when the Earth cooled down enough to have liquid water seas--meaning that as soon as life COULD exist on Earth, life DID exist on Earth. (I can't say anything about the temporary liquid water seas that undoubtably formed before that--they were vaporized, or at least the rock around them melted, and so we don't have any data on that subject). What this implies is that life is relatively easy to get going. Therefore, any planet similar to Earth in terms of temperature range, pressure, and composition, should have single-celled life at least. I should point out that by "composition" I mean of the planet as a whole; the Earth had a vastly different atmosphere 3.6 billion years ago, one that would be poisonous to most living things today.
More complex organisms didn't arise until significantly later. We have evidence of colonial activity pretty quickly after the Oxygen Revolution (2.5 billion years ago), but nothing we'd call multicellular until the Ediacara Period (well, a bit before that, actually--we have trace fossils that are either from worms or from enormous ameobas). So it's safe to say that complex life is significantly less likely than unicellular life. It should also be noted that single celled organisms are still overwhelmingly the dominant ones today--you carry more bacterial cells around with you than human cells, if I remember correctly.
Given all that, I'm of the opinion that single-celled life is almost a certainty. It'd be really bizzar to NOT find that stuff out among the stars. Multicellular life is, I'd say, likely but rare, given the number of planets we seem to be finding (if there are five million planets a one-in-a-million event will happen about five times). Intelligent life......I'm leaving that one alone. The issue is how to define intelligence. Humans are very smart in certain ways, for example, but we're morons compared to computers in others, and vice versa.
Pup said:
But I expect that most people don't have a belief or opinion on those topics, because none of their friends are talking about it, it's not in the news, and they haven't researched it, so they don't care.
Perhaps most people here, yeah, but certainly not all. Half the point of biogeochemistry is to figure out the conditions life arose in here on Earth so that we can determine where we're likely to find it out in space. And while biogeochemistry papers are also called soporifics, it is a subject I keep my ear to the ground on as much as I can.