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Exercise to avoid Bird Flu?

Rolfe said:
Last night on the radio I heard a discussion about small backyard poultry keepers and bird flu. There was concern that such people were being frowned on by their neighbours, and it was being questioned whether they should in fact bring their birds indoors.

Someone who should have known better then said, well, these birds have so much better health and lifestyles that hopefully they wouldn't get bird flu anyway.

:hb:

Rolfe.
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Yes, but...

Since it is spread/originated in wild bird populations, yet I recall no pics of lakes covered by dead geese corpses, perhaps there is something to this? Or are wild birds more resistant?

Some overall statistics were reported last week in one of the mainstream media. Since first diagnosed in 1997, 122 hospitalisations, 66 deaths. Over 8 years. Does that sound virulant in the human population? Theoretically, yes, there sould be some concerns. But should the general population even be concerned at this point ?
 
casebro said:
Since it is spread/originated in wild bird populations, yet I recall no pics of lakes covered by dead geese corpses, perhaps there is something to this?
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TIM JOHNSON
Knight Ridder Newspapers:
Near Guangdong Village along Gaoyou Lake, which straddles Anhui and Jiangsu provinces, duck and geese farmers have created ponds for their fowl. Most of the ponds are empty now. Sometime in late August, following heavy rains and flooding, hundreds of domestic fowl died.

"They died in groups," said Li Lijun, a crab farmer.

"The geese struggled in the water. They were sick," added Wang, who lives aboard a shrimp boat on the lake's shore. "The geese farmers were all afraid their geese would die, so they sold them off."

China acknowledged in October an avian flu outbreak at a site about 10 miles away, in Liangying Village, Bianyi Township. It said 550 geese there died, prompting authorities to destroy 44,736 poultry in a 1.9-mile radius.
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Or are wild birds more resistant?
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Some migratory waterfowl can carry the virus without developing symptoms. (That isn't particularly good news, btw, from an epidemiological standpoint).

Since first diagnosed in 1997, 122 hospitalisations, 66 deaths. Over 8 years. Does that sound virulant in the human population? Theoretically, yes, there sould be some concerns. But should the general population even be concerned at this point?
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"True, it's a powerful hurricane, but it's still far out at sea, and so far only a couple of fishing boats have been affected. Should coastal residents even be concerned at this point?"
 
casebro said:
Yes, but...
Since it is spread/originated in wild bird populations, yet I recall no pics of lakes covered by dead geese corpses, perhaps there is something to this? Or are wild birds more resistant?
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I've seen photos of dead wild ducks; I do not know if there are cases of dead geese, or photos of them; wild birds do not appear to be more resistant, but I would assume that would need quite a large study to work out.
Some overall statistics were reported last week in one of the mainstream media. Since first diagnosed in 1997, 122 hospitalisations, 66 deaths. Over 8 years. Does that sound virulant in the human population? Theoretically, yes, there sould be some concerns. But should the general population even be concerned at this point ?
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Hang on, who do you actually mean?
Should a government be worried at this point? Most definitely; if the strain muates so that it can have much greater cross-human infectivity, then it will become a major and severe pandemic. There ahs been a study from Vietnam to indicate the strain has high mutational variability.
Another reason a government needs to wortry is the effect on poultry; already a massive danger.
Should the general population be concerned? If their jobs depend in any way on poultry, then definitely.
The general population should also get vaccinations against the current winter strain of human flu, so that if bird flu does break out, it has less chance of cross-combination with the current human winter strain of flu and thus less chance of new killer pandemic strains.
Should you be stocking up on Tamiflu? Not yet, for various reasons.
 
So far, this is a disease of birds. The fact that it is not easily caught by humans, and almost impossible to be spread human-to-human, is why there have been so few human cases. If no change in the properties of the virus was likely occur, then it would be reasonable to ask whether we should be concerned about human health.

However, influenza viruses are extraordinarily good at changing. This could change in such a way as to become easy to pick up, and even worse, transmissible from person to person. In that case, the severity of the disease and the mortality rate are extremely alarming prospects.

Pointing to the fact that the virus is not noticeably infectious to man now is completely beside the point. All it needs is a little shuffle of the genome and things might be very different indeed.

Rolfe.
 
In the words of Ian Malcolm:

"Hang on. This is gonna be bad."

I think if there is this much talk and preparation about it now, that a pandemic is inevitable. I'm comparing it to the lack of gubmint's preparedness for Katrina -- they waited until after the fact to get it together.

I'm hoping it will be more of a Y2K thing -- the act of preparing for it will prevent the major catastrophe (though no less devastating for those who are affected.)
 
Rolfe said:
Last night on the radio I heard a discussion about small backyard poultry keepers and bird flu. There was concern that such people were being frowned on by their neighbours, and it was being questioned whether they should in fact bring their birds indoors.

Someone who should have known better then said, well, these birds have so much better health and lifestyles that hopefully they wouldn't get bird flu anyway.

:hb:

Rolfe.
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:hb: :rolleyes: :hb:
 
Rolfe said:
Pointing to the fact that the virus is not noticeably infectious to man now is completely beside the point. All it needs is a little shuffle of the genome and things might be very different indeed.

Rolfe.
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Soo, how many other dideases would "a little shuffle of the genome" make virulent? Why should I stay awake worrying about bird flu instead of cat flu, canine distemper,etc,etc,etc. ALL organisms mutate. ALL organisms go extinct. I'd say it's a toss up as to whether any given life form extincts before some other mutates. I'll bet I get extinct before I die of bird flu.
 
That's how influenza works. It gives its genome a little shuffle on a regular basis. That's why we have to make a new "best guess" vaccine every year.

Cat flu isn't even flu, completely different viruses. You're never going to catch that. Canine distemper is closer to measles than anything else Did you know that measles vaccine will protect puppies against distemper? But real influenza is a very subtle virus, and shuffling the genome is what it does best.

Rolfe.
 
casebro said:
Soo, how many other dideases would "a little shuffle of the genome" make virulent? Why should I stay awake worrying about bird flu instead of cat flu, canine distemper,etc,etc,etc. ALL organisms mutate. ALL organisms go extinct. I'd say it's a toss up as to whether any given life form extincts before some other mutates.
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Influenza viruses certainly do mutate in the same sense that "all organisms mutate"; in fact, their lack of error correction mechanisms mean that they do so at a phenomenal rate. But when talking about an influenza virus, "a little shuffle of the genome" can also mean something quite different from mutation of the sort that "all organisms" do; so in addition to taking genetic baby steps at blinding speed, they can also take big jumps.

But there's something else about influenza that causes epidemiologists to be particularly concerned about a highly pathogenic strain such as H5N1. It has to do with the way the disease progresses in an infected person, and the way that affects the spread of the disease through a population. Influenza is contagious before the onset of symptoms, and transmission doesn't require direct contact; it's airborne. That means that the basic reproductive number, or "r-nought" number -- which refers to the number of additional persons to whom each infected person can be expected to pass the disease -- will be above 1 (in crowded environments, particularly in the third world, well above 1).

There are other highly pathogenic diseases which are potential threats, but most of them don't have high r-nought numbers, either because direct contact with bodily fluids is required for their transmission, or because they take their victims down so hard and so fast that the disease tends to "burn out" in isolated pockets.

I'll bet I get extinct before I die of bird flu.
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As a hedge, you might consider availing yourself of every reproductive opportunity that comes your way during the upcoming months.
 
Just chiming in, the media hype on Bird Flu is one of those things that make me pound my head against the desk. Nice article here about bird flu and how long it's been around and not done much. Sorry for the way the URL is set up, silly 15 post rule.
Put a WWW DOT in front and at DOT HTML at the end, replace (SLASH) with /

fumento.com(SLASH)disease(SLASH)flu2005
 
Couldn't any virus make "a little shuffle of the genome" ? Herpes, measles, HIV, ebola? Or, Biologics like MRSA, that has already killed more than H5N1? Yes, flu is more likely, I just don't see the relative emergency (pun?) of AF.
 
azazal said:
Sorry for the way the URL is set up, silly 15 post rule.
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Allow me:
http://fumento.com/disease/flu2005.html

Here's a passage I found interesting:
With all flu viruses, to paraphrase a bumper sticker, mutation happens. Avian flu could randomly mutate to be transmissible between humans. But it would indeed be random, since the virus is doing just fine in the bird population, thank you very much. There is no evolutionary pressure for it to reach out and infect other species.
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I don't disagree with that, but what the author either failed to grasp or chose not to convey is that the same can be applied to all of multi-cellular life. Stephen Jay Gould devoted an entire book to explaining why prokaryotes are, always have been, and always will be the dominant form of life on earth, by any means of measurement one chooses to apply. There never is "evolutionary pressure" in the sense this author suggests.

He notes:
So H5N1 has been flying around the globe for over four decades and hasn't done a number on us yet.
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Over four decades in avian populations -- and during that time, only 21 outbreaks, only 5 of which resulted in significant spread to numerous farms, only one associated with spread to other countries, and no recorded instances of human infection until 1997. Then suddenly, it starts spreading like wildfire in avian populations, and instances of human infection begin to occur. Is it so hard to understand why virologists conclude from this that H5N1 is becoming a greater threat?

That doesn't mean it won't ever; but there's absolutely no reason to think it will pick this year or next.
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There are, however, good reasons for considering this year more likely than last year, etc: as the virus becomes more widespread in avian populations, the liklihood of the dreaded reassortment event increases accordingly.

Or it may simply wait a few more years before striking, by which time we'll be inundated with vaccine and have so much antiviral medicine stockpiled they'll be giving it away in Crackerjack boxes.
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I have a feeling this guy knows the bit about vaccines is baloney, since he probably knows that an effective vaccine can't be developed until a pandemic strain actually emerges. The part about the antivirals sounds like an ok idea to me.
 
casebro said:
Couldn't any virus make "a little shuffle of the genome" ? Herpes, measles, HIV, ebola?
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Influenza's segmented genome gives it the ability to "shuffle" in a way those you mentioned (along with Marburg, Yellow fever, Hepatitis, West Nile and many others) cannot.
 
To take a slightly different slant on this ....

Perhaps those who think the world is overpopulated also think the bird flu might actually be a good thing ........
 
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