Drought!

BenBurch

Gatekeeper of The Left
BenBurch
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I've been looking at the agricultural conditions world wide this northern growing season, and I have to say it is really bad all over;

http://tinyurl.com/yrdkl6

That is a lot of the agriculturally important areas of the planet.

What I can't find is any real estimate about how bad it has to get before it causes food shortages sufficient to cause widespread famine, or any quantitative way to go from a map like this to such a predication.

Thoughts?
 

Attachments

Where I live at the moment the news is twofold
1. Flooding expected this week
2. hose pipe bans lifted next week

So I shall be out there in three feet of water with my hosepipe making the most of the end of restriction, until next week when the floods receed and the hosepipe ban is restored
:D
 
Here in St. Louis, my grass is dead brown and crunchy, and even the durable weeds are wilting. We've had 10 days of 100+ temps and no rain at all.... We may get showers tonight.
The corn crop here in the Midwest is mostly a disaster.
 
Keep in mind many places now discourage watering the grass, so you can't necessarily rely on the "God damn there's a lotta crunchy grass around!" observation.

Crunchy grass could be a indicator of increased availability for water for more important things. My apartment complex, a gigantic one with a hundred buildings, has brown grass everywhere, when in the '70s I'm sure they wouldn't. I have no idea if it's a regulation or a recommendation they're following. And this is Michigan, which has no water shortage issues whatsoever, beyond the occasional failed water main due to heavy use.
 
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Beerina said:
Keep in mind many places now discourage watering the grass, so you can't necessarily rely on the "God damn there's a lotta crunchy grass around!" observation.

Crunchy grass could be a indicator of increased availability for water for more important things. My apartment complex, a gigantic one with a hundred buildings, has brown grass everywhere, when in the '70s I'm sure they wouldn't. I have no idea if it's a regulation or a recommendation they're following. And this is Michigan, which has no water shortage issues whatsoever, beyond the occasional failed water main due to heavy use.
Click to expand...

My "grass index" is based on some meadows that never get artificially watered, and they are almost brown.
 
On the first page it's important to choose the right timescale as well. The three month or six month maps are more worthwhile for the northern hemisphere than the nine month map you linked in the OP, since that makes up the rainfall for the growing season for most of the country. It's not good that there has been a drought since last October, but that's not what is keeping the corn from growing today.

I was also wondering why Indiana and Ohio were not marked on the earlier map. There has definitely been a drought here, though a relatively mild one as such things go. The later map does have it marked, including extreme drought for a substantial fraction of Indiana. I suppose it has to do with the definition of drought.
 
In Kansas we are about 50% down on annual rainfall. I was talking to an old timer who thinks we are heading into the conditions that troubled the plains states in the 1930's. He did point out he does not expect dust bowl conditions because of all the soil erosion work and modified farming processes developed since that time
 
We've had all that rain you didn't get. Forty days and forty nights doesn't begin to describe it. The grass is as high as an elephant's eye, and the road to Romanno Bridge is closed (again) due to flash flood damage.

Rolfe.
 
It's ironic because last year Cincinnati had the rainiest year on record and fairly mild weather (temp wise) now the following year there's extensive drought conditions coupled with a heat wave.
 
We're entering the danger zone here in Wisconsin. Corn does fine with very little rain up until the plants start tasseling, then they need a couple inches of water a week to make a good yield. If we don't start getting rain pretty soon it's going to be a real drag for the farmers.
 
South east Australia suffered a seven year drought, with Melbourne and Sydney dams emptying fast. Both cities commissioned desalination plants. It's barely stopped raining since, with Sydney dams 97% full and Melbourne's 70% full. Fields are saturated and floods are a real threat.
 
lionking said:
South east Australia suffered a seven year drought, with Melbourne and Sydney dams emptying fast. Both cities commissioned desalination plants. It's barely stopped raining since, with Sydney dams 97% full and Melbourne's 70% full. Fields are saturated and floods are a real threat.
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And on the Speewah, people are now able to put a dash of water in their tea.
 
Howie Felterbush said:
We're entering the danger zone here in Wisconsin. Corn does fine with very little rain up until the plants start tasseling, then they need a couple inches of water a week to make a good yield. If we don't start getting rain pretty soon it's going to be a real drag for the farmers.
Click to expand...

Some of what I saw in Indiana yesterday isn't going to tassel. Joined the Choir Invisible it has.
 
lionking said:
South east Australia suffered a seven year drought, with Melbourne and Sydney dams emptying fast. Both cities commissioned desalination plants. It's barely stopped raining since, with Sydney dams 97% full and Melbourne's 70% full. Fields are saturated and floods are a real threat.
Click to expand...

You'll be prepared next time for drought, though. Preparing for rain like that is hard to imagine.
 
BenBurch said:
You'll be prepared next time for drought, though. Preparing for rain like that is hard to imagine.
Click to expand...

I can understand what you're going through. It was only afew years ago that a wind change prevented our whole township being wiped out by bushfires. There was barely a drop of rain that summer, and temperatures often over 40C. My point is that things can, and surely will, turn around, and it can happen relatively quickly. If I told someone three years ago that our dams would now be 70% full they would have thought me crazy.
 
lionking said:
I can understand what you're going through. It was only afew years ago that a wind change prevented our whole township being wiped out by bushfires. There was barely a drop of rain that summer, and temperatures often over 40C. My point is that things can, and surely will, turn around, and it can happen relatively quickly. If I told someone three years ago that our dams would now be 70% full they would have thought me crazy.
Click to expand...

It helps in Australia that our dam systems are so efficient. When we get the rain it does not take long to get them full again. But I am sure you have heard the old saying - You know when the droughts over when the flood starts lol
 
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