Do "odds" really mean anything?

[QuarkChild]

Given the sheer number of types of events that we can consider to be coincidental, the odds of them NOT happening are astronomical, IMO.

Finally, a statistics question we both agree on

 

[exarch]

UKboy1977---*I* have such coincidences, quite often. I actually started a journal of them. I have them at home though (which is 20 miles away). I could have something like this happen: I am in some plumbing stare discussing nursery rhymes with a worker, and then I will leave the store, and a particular nursery rhyme we were talking about would become whimsically added into a commentary on the radio..or I'd go home and read about how the originator of a particular nursery rhyme we were talking about, died today.

Or, for some reason, on a particular day, I decided to call someone a 'peckerhead'. A slang terminology from decades prior and one not hardly heard today. And I could return to my vehicle, turn on the radio, and one of the first things I hear on the radio is someone talk about 'peckerheads'. And I go. "What the...!"

There's coincidence, and then there's what we think is coincidence. Like you're stuck with a song in your head, and the moment you turn on the radio, that particular song is on. It's a coincidence if the song is something from the fifties that hasn't been on the radio in 50 years, it's different when it's U2's latest hit that is on 12 times a day. Or perhaps you just faintly, subconsciously, picked up the sound of your neighbours radio (which is on the same station) and that made you think of this particular song.

It often happens to me that I'm reading something while I'm on the phone, and I have noticed that I will start using words from the text I'm reading, sometimes even the conversation will steer in such a way that I can use the words from the text. Is that coincidence or just our brain trying to do both things at once by reducing the amount of concentration needed to cover both tasks? Drawing inspiration from the text?

Coincidence happens all the time. Suppose I get home tonight, turn on the TV and Friends is on. What are the odds that it will be an episode about coincidences? Or about posting on a website from work? Or about James Randi, or Penn and Teller? Or about nursery rhymes or childrens songs? About having a song stuck in your head? About childrens names? How about other shows besides friends (since I really don't watch Friends).
I'm pretty sure that if I search long enough I'll find some "coincidence" that actually will occur, but is it significant enough to even think it might be something special?

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Let's take a football match, the bookmakers estimate the home team has a 50% chance of winning. What does this mean? It means if we let the match run it's course (it being subject to all manner of random processes occurring within the match), note the result and then turn back time and let the match run again, note the new result, and do this over and over and over we would find in the long run that the home team won 50% of the time.

That is not my understanding of the way bookies work at all, as this would involve them taking risk on the outcome. My understanding is that the prices are set, and adjusted to ensure that no matter the outcome, the bookmaker is in profit.

While this might sound pedantic, it is crucial to the business. If your methodology is right, then bookmakers must be better than average at estimating the probabilities or they lose money. By adjusting the prices relative not to their estimate of probability but to the amount of cash staked, they can ensure they always make a profit.

 

[hammegk]

Actually, lamme, "odds" have no meaning. Do you like to play card games for money?