China

[The Great Zaganza]

The difference in military capability is not between the West (or just US) and Russia or China, but between waging an Offensive versus a defensive one.
Both Russia (even now)and China have plenty of defensive capabilities to make any invasion a doomed effort. But neither county has the logistics might and number of bases globally to project their power to anywhere that isn't close to their borders.

No power has anywhere near the US's ability to move troops and gear around.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I don't know what China is capable of, militarily. Do you?

No, but I do have my sincere doubts they are capable of some sort of advanced stealth technology that can hide the buildup of landing craft, the concentration of their navy and airforce and gathering the troops and supplies needed to pull this off.
Even in WW2 the buildup for D-day was not hidden, only the location of the troops was concealed.

China does not have the air and sea superiority the allies did, is not going to land on occupied territory where they can count of an active resistance movement to aid them and is not facing the second rate troops of the country they intend to invade. And is under constant satellite surveillance, apart from whatever intelligence gathering it's rivals have.

So yeah, I am willing to say that China is incapable of just occupying Taiwan without any prior warning. And if they are, everyone else is in major trouble as that means they have some Star Trek level teleporters or similar tech available.

 

[The Atheist]

I'm pretty sure that if China invaded Taiwan, the first we in the "west" would hear about it is when the news reports started circulating saying "China has invaded and taken control of Taiwan".

I think that's wrong on several counts.

As noted, the build-up of arms would be noticed.

More importantly, I believe they'd set out exactly what they were doing and what the consequences of interference would be as soon as they launched the attack, which is why they're flat-out building ICBM silos.

I don't for a second think America would risk all-out nuclear war with China over Taiwan.

 

[Ziggurat]

This just means they ostensibly have the right equipment to pull off a large scale landing relatively close to their own shores. The problem is that the doctrine and even the equipment was designed by people with no first hand knowledge of landing operations.

IMO China doesn't even get past the first hurdle which is air superiority. Winning in air combat isn't just about the spec of the aircraft, or even about pilot skill. IMO Western, doctrine, avionics, communications systems, weapon systems, etc are all far superior to their Chinese counterparts and would allow the defenders to shoot down Chinese aircraft at very high kill ratios even if the aircraft themselves have similar specs.

I agree that Taiwan and the west in general has a technological, doctrinal, and training advantage in air-to-air combat. I think China knows this, and has plans to try to deal with it. In particular, I suspect that in the event of an invasion, they will try to overwhelm Taiwanese air power using ballistic missiles on Taiwanese air bases. You don't have to beat your enemy in the air if they can't take off and land safely. Will that work? I don't know. But it's a major challenge for Taiwan, because it's an asymmetric threat. I'm sure they have plans to try to deal with that threat, but it's hard to rigorously test that sort of thing beforehand. Neither side really knows how well they will perform on the day. But if I were Taiwan, I wouldn't depend on my air force as the only line of defense, and I suspect they aren't either.

 

[theprestige]

I'm pretty sure that if China invaded Taiwan, the first we in the "west" would hear about it is when the news reports started circulating saying "China has invaded and taken control of Taiwan".

I'm pretty sure the amassing of troops, transports, and escorts would be visible to the world weeks before the flotilla actually launched.

 

[Ziggurat]

I'm pretty sure the amassing of troops, transports, and escorts would be visible to the world weeks before the flotilla actually launched.

Quite so.

What China can try to do (and they're already doing to some degree) is stage exercises where they do that kind of mobilization, but then don't invade. Do that on a semi-regular basis, and then when the real invasion comes hopefully Taiwan won't know until the last moment that it's not just another exercise.

Which means that any time Taiwan sees China mobilizing, they have to spin up defenses even though they will probably not be needed. That puts a bit of a strain on Taiwan, which China likes even if they never do invade.

 

[theprestige]

Quite so.

What China can try to do (and they're already doing to some degree) is stage exercises where they do that kind of mobilization, but then don't invade. Do that on a semi-regular basis, and then when the real invasion comes hopefully Taiwan won't know until the last moment that it's not just another exercise.

Which means that any time Taiwan sees China mobilizing, they have to spin up defenses even though they will probably not be needed. That puts a bit of a strain on Taiwan, which China likes even if they never do invade.

The obvious countermove is for other interested parties to regularly conduct their own readiness exercises in the region.

In fact, hasn't that historically been one of the hallmarks of a cold war? One side conducts readiness exercises, the other side mirrors them in some way?

The US would send one or more carrier groups to the region, if it saw any sign of a buildup. It would therefore send one or more carrier groups to the region on a regular basis, as practice for the real thing. The US in fact does send one or more carrier groups to the region on a regular basis.

 

[lomiller]

I don't know what China is capable of, militarily. Do you?

We can make some educated guesses based on the following:
1) Much like the Russian Military the Chinese military is deeply corrupt
2) Pay for rank is commonplace which breads systemic incompetence
3) the chain of command is a mess because officers allegiance is to specific members of the communist party, not the president or a chief of staff
4) Doctrine is based in old Soviet Doctrine
5) Neither soldiers nor officers have any actual combat experience

IMO a large marine landing is well beyond Chinese capability even if they have all the manpower and equipment. Furthermore such an operation would remain beyond their capability until the Chinese military is completely reconstructed with lessons learned from actual combat experience.

 

[arthwollipot]

No, but I do have my sincere doubts they are capable of some sort of advanced stealth technology that can hide the buildup of landing craft, the concentration of their navy and airforce and gathering the troops and supplies needed to pull this off.

I'm pretty sure the amassing of troops, transports, and escorts would be visible to the world weeks before the flotilla actually launched.

I'm not expecting a military invasion at all. I'm expecting a coup where agents already in place move against key points in Taiwan's government, and China simply announces to the world "we're in charge now". Invasion not necessary.

Maybe I've just been reading too much speculative fiction.

 

[arthwollipot]

What China can try to do (and they're already doing to some degree) is stage exercises where they do that kind of mobilization, but then don't invade. Do that on a semi-regular basis, and then when the real invasion comes hopefully Taiwan won't know until the last moment that it's not just another exercise.

That does seem more realistic.

 

[arthwollipot]

Apropos of nothing:

[imgw=400]https://i.imgur.com/GWruhdU.jpg[/imgw]

 

[theprestige]

Apropos of nothing:

[imgw=400]https://i.imgur.com/GWruhdU.jpg[/imgw]

Tankies gonna tank, I guess.

The people of Hong Kong sure seem enthusiastic about trading UK lectures for Chinese hospitals.

I wonder how many hospitals China plans to gift Taiwan.

But seriously: I really admire China's program of expanding healthcare across the South China Sea with a network of artificial hospital islands.

 

[Lplus]

Tankies gonna tank, I guess.

The people of Hong Kong sure seem enthusiastic about trading UK lectures for Chinese hospitals.

I wonder how many hospitals China plans to gift Taiwan.

But seriously: I really admire China's program of expanding healthcare across the South China Sea with a network of artificial hospital islands.

I wonder how many Kenyans have chosen to emigrate to China instead of to the UK.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I wonder how many Kenyans have chosen to emigrate to China instead of to the UK.

Be that as it may, the Kenyans who have NOT emigrated will probably consider a hospital from China a better gift than the condescension form their former colonizer.
And China is happily capitalizing on this, especially since most Kenyans won't care what happens in SE Asia and do care about the lack of healthcare in their own areas.

Yes, there most likely will be some form of hidden cost, like giving out the rights to raw resources to Chinese companies rather than European/US ones, but if the former comes with a hospital and the latter comes with nothing...

Of course this can be easily remedied by paying African countries realistic prizes for their resources, but that would make things cost more.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Edited by jimbob: 

quote of moderated post snipped

To you anything that isn't a full 'china is evil!!11!!' post is a defense of China isn't it?

I'm merely pointing out their tactic is working in Africa partially because us as western nations are severely dropping the ball in our interaction with a lot of the countries there.

If we want to reduce China's influence in Africa, and I think that is very desirable, rather than pointing out how evil they are, maybe we should offer better incentives. Like pay for hospitals without strings attached. That would actually work, whereas the 'don't take their goods, accept our word for it' is not.

 

[The Atheist]

I'm merely pointing out their tactic is working in Africa partially because us as western nations are severely dropping the ball in our interaction with a lot of the countries there.

Hard to blame the African countries when UK sends refugees to Rwanda while China builds infrastructure.

Jeremy Clarkson had a great piece on one of his African jaunts. At a border, the road changed from a rutted dirt track to beautiful blacktop, built by China

When you've had your people exploited for 400 years by white *****, it's hard to see harm in renminbi diplomacy.

 

[arthwollipot]

China has been exercising soft power in Africa for decades.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

The way I see it African nations have two options

Western companies, which loot their resources, do not really employ locals, destroy the local environment, bribe the countries current leaders to be allowed to do so, do not pay anything close to fair wages if they hire locals at all and ensure none of the profit is re-invested into the country they take the resources from.

Chinese companies, which do exactly the same except they re-invest a tiny part of their profit into local infrastructure.

If I were someone living in such a country I would prefer the Chinese as well, at least you're shafted a little bit less.

 

[arthwollipot]

Xi Jinping to tighten Communist party’s grip with overhaul of China’s government at key meeting

The NPC, China’s rubber-stamp parliament, will gather this weekend to approve far-reaching changes, and Xi’s unprecedented third term as president


Xi Jinping is preparing a profound overhaul of China’s government and party institutions at this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s rubber-stamp parliament, which begins its annual session on Sunday.

On Tuesday, the Chinese Communist party (CCP) trailed changes of “far-reaching significance” that are expected to include a reorganisation of the bodies tasked with managing the financial and technology sectors, as well as state security. The changes will all have one goal in mind: to strengthen the party’s control.

Xi is China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. At the CCP congress in October, he was anointed as party secretary and head of the military commission for a third term, after abolishing the two-term limit in 2018, paving the way for him to rule for life. That will be reaffirmed at this year’s NPC when Xi is granted his third term as president.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I wonder if Xi wants to become the new Lord of Heaven and just do away with the pretense of democracy to go back to the good old ways of an imperial court. Though if he can get the rest of the CCP to agree to being castrated...