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China

The Atheist said:
I'd be interested in an update on how the silo fields are progressing.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-09/news/new-chinese-missile-silo-fields-discovered

I had a discussion the other day and a guy asked me how I thought the China/US would pan out.

My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene.

At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down.
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I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.
 
Lplus said:
I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.
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It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now.

They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s.

I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms.

Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.
 
GraculusTheGreenBird said:
Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.
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At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland.

Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it.
 
Ziggurat said:
At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland.

Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it.
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Interesting points. I don't really know enough about Taiwan to argue either way :)
 
GraculusTheGreenBird said:
It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now.

They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s. I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms. Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.
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I do wonder if that might be a spur to action "before it's too late" Shades of another despot....
 
lomiller said:
China has undoubtedly been successful over the last 30 years, and this has allowed it to improve the lives of it's citizens on a massive scale. People haven't resisted the lack of political freedom because for the most part their interests were still being served. I think this is coming to an end though and it doesn't have much to do with Covid policy.

China's success is much like US success in the 50's, but if China wants to take the next step and improve it's citizens lives again they need to pivot their economy in much the same way the US has since it's golden age of industrial production. Labor intensive production line work is, for the most part, always going to be low pay low productivity and that puts an upper limit on the quality of life those types of jobs can offer. To move beyond that level you need to start exporting the more manual less valuable manufacturing jobs to lower wage economies abroad. Then you can focus those resources on building a service economy and promoting your own consumer economy.

The US resisted and lamented this change while it was happening and some idiots still want to go back, but it didn't have a government form that could simply legislate it away. China is so intent on replicating what has worked for the last 30 years that it's refusing to move forward.

This is starting to prevent it from improving the lives of it's middle class, which has grown very large. There are still some people being lifted from poverty but they are now outnumbered by the stalled middle class. If recent reports that China has overestimated it's population by up to 200 million people, the stalled middle class now outnumbers the very poor by almost 3:1.

All this suggests that the number of people willing to tolerate lack of freedom in exchange for constant improvement in their day to day lives is rapidly changing. On the other side of the ledger the government has more and more to lose if it suppresses dissent to harshly. Cracking down too harshly would harm the economy the government has become dependent on (something their Covid policy does show us) reducing the governments power and increasing the agitation in the population.


All in all I think China is rapidly approaching an inflection point where something has to change. This could mean transforming it's economy and political system to something more like Japan or South Korea Or, it will start to see the gains it made start to unwind and possibly even enter a death spiral where economic collapse causes unrest and harsh crackdowns cause further collapse in a viscous cycle. I have no guess as to which one happens.
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Pretty much the same choices the Soviet Union faced. We all knew the choice they made and how it worked out.
 
I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.
 
dudalb said:
I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.
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Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money.

Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances.

arthwollipot said:
Who's taking China's side?
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People who don't falsify facts to show China as an economic failure.
 
The Atheist said:
Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money.

Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances.
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I don't know man, that's a mixed issue. Yes, by contributing to the Chinese economy you're also contributing to the regime, but you're also contributing to the economy in general, and people buying Chinese goods is exactly how hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty here.

People not buying Chinese goods isn't going to bring down the CCP, but it would hurt a great deal of Chinese people.

There are more direct ways that people in the west collaborate with the CCP (the NBA is a big culprit here, as is Hollywood), but buying Chinese made goods seems to me to be on balance a good thing.
 
Roboramma said:
I don't know man, that's a mixed issue.
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Sorry, I was hoping the tongue would be seen firmly in my cheek.

I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime.
 
The Atheist said:
I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime.
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Yeah, definitely. If you don't acknowledge the strength of your opponent you will lose to them. It's not going over to their side to do so, it is sound strategic thinking.
 
The point is that China isn't as strong as it looks. Australia is giving a bad movie positive reviews based on the trailer. Even though everyone knows that trailers lie.

Of course China is still strong enough to cause serious trouble for Australia. Unless Australia ups its game, or finds partners willing and able to play at or above China's level. Australia's problem here is refusing to believe such partners exist, and refusing to do the work themselves.

Australia would rather be a Chinese vassal than a US-Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Filippines security partner, because reasons. Instead, they'd rather be a rump state in the imagined New Greater China Prosperity Sphere.
 
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